Philippine Election Scenarios
Possible Scenarios
# 1: Failure of Elections
# 2: No Proclamation of National Winners
# 3: Wholesale automated cheating
# 4: A new government is in place
Scenario #1:
Failure of Elections
Scenario #1:
Failure of Elections
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Instead of a last minute decision to shift to
manual election, the automated elections proceed
as scheduled.
On election day itself, the system breaks down in
many areas, preventing the holding of elections.
Comelec fails to put manual voting in place to
meet such contingency.
Long lines of voters feel frustrated and, sensing
sabotage, they vent their fury on election
authorities.
Spontaneous protests break out everywhere,
threatening to turn violent.
Scenario #1:
Failure of Elections
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The military and the
police step in to quell
lawlessness. Martial law
is declared by the
President, who holds on
to power beyond June
30, and proclaims the
formation of a Transition
Council to restore order
and prepare the country
for a fresh round of
elections.
Scenario # 2:
No Proclamation of National
Winners
Scenario # 2:
No Proclamation of National Winners
The automated elections proceed as scheduled.
 PCOS machines break down in many precincts in
some regions of the country.
 The results are however sufficient to immediately
declare the winners in local races – councilors,
mayors, congressmen and governors.
 Winners for national positions like senator, vicepresident, and president could not be proclaimed
because the slim margins could be offset by
awaited results from the other regions.
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Scenario # 2:
No Proclamation of National Winners
The House of Representatives is able to
convene, but not the Senate.
 The Speaker is chosen by the newlyelected House, but not the Senate
President.
 The results for the national level remain
inconclusive even after June 30.
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Scenario # 2:
No Proclamation of National Winners
In the meantime since a Speaker has been
chosen by the new House of
Representatives…
 that person can validly assert a claim to
serve as acting President. That person
could well be GMA.
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Scenario # 3:
Wholesale automated cheating
Scenario # 3:
Wholesale automated cheating
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The automated elections proceed as
scheduled.
Votes are counted, and the winners are
proclaimed.
The results appear to contradict popular
expectations.
Charges of systematic rigging of the results
through control of the source code gain
credence as evidence of a pattern of
automated adding and subtracting of votes
piles up.
Scenario # 3:
Wholesale automated cheating
With no parallel manual precinct count to
validate the automated results, voters become
agitated
 Protests and demonstrations erupt in many
parts of the country
 The troops are called in to suppress violence
and disorder
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Scenario # 3:
Wholesale automated cheating
The President declares Martial Law
to save the Republic
 GMA holds on to the presidency
until June 30, and then gives way to a
multi-sectoral Transition Council to
be led by her
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Scenario # 4:
A new government is in place
Scenario # 4:
A new government is in place
The automated election is successfully
held
 The results are accepted. A new
government is elected
 GMA gains a seat in Congress, and is
elected Speaker. Or, at the very
least, she controls a large enough
block to be able to determine the
agenda of the House
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Scenario # 4:
A new government is in place
A law convening a Constitutional
Convention is passed, and the election of
delegates to the Convention is held
simultaneously with the barangay elections
scheduled for October 2010
 A new Constitution changing the form
of government from presidential to
parliamentary is ratified in 2011
 Speaker GMA becomes the first Prime
Minister under the new Constitution, while
the Presidency is transformed into a largely
ceremonial role
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Scenario # 4:
A new government is in place
Before all this can happen, of course, GMA
will have to face many cases for
corruption committed during her
presidency
 It will not be very easy to pin her down
given the way she has handpicked the
members of the high court and the
Office of the Ombudsman
 The ensuing battle will be protracted and
will be fought on various fronts
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Scenario # 4:
A new government is in place
Once again, political conflict will burden the
judicial system
 We cannot discount the intervention of the
military at any point, especially if civilian
authority is deadlocked and is unable to govern
and respond effectively to emergencies
triggered by natural calamities.
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COUNTERFOIL TO POSSIBLE
ELECTION SCENARIOS:
Continuing people's vigilance and citizen power (which
foiled several Charter Change attempts)
 Crumbling of Lakas-Kampi-NUCD ruling coalition
 The U.S. Factor which has great influence over AFP/PNP
and other Philippine institutions
 A patriotic armed forces that is professional and loyal to
the Filipino people and constitution, not to a person
who happens to be in power (long-term)
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