Dr. T. Liska
Office:
Office Phone
246 Gardner Hall
342-1241
e-mail
Liska
Spring
2011
Office Hours:
TR
10:00 –11:00am
TR
2:00- 3:00 pm
W
9:00 -11:00 a.m.
W
1:00 - 4:00 p.m.
or by appointment
Web address: www.uwplatt.edu/~liska
241 INTERPRETATION OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC DATA
TEXT:
Supplemental
Statistical Techniques in Business & Economics
Lind, Marchal and Wathan
Study Guide Statistical Techniques in Business &
Economics Robert D. Mason, Douglas A. Lind, and
William G. Marchal
Basic Statistics Using Microsoft Excel for Office 97
Merchant, Goffinet, and Koehler
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft EXCEL
Levine, Berenson, Stephan- On reserve in the library
I.
Course Objectives
A. The student will better understand how our society
communicates information about business and economic
problems through the use of statistics.
B. The student will discover how these statistics influence
business, economic, and individual decisions in our
society.
C. The student will explore the ways in which statistics
influence individual and group behavior.
D. The student will develop critical thinking skills using
statistics.
II.
Course Requirements:
A.
Exams
There will be four exams including the final exam.
Each exam will be 100 points. The exams will be
computational and essay.
ANYONE TAKING A MAKE-UP EXAM WILL LOSE 10 POINTS UNLESS
A MEDICAL EXCUSE IS PROVIDED BY A PHYSICIAN INDICATING
YOU ARE UNABLE TO ATTEND.
Exam Dates:
Exam I
Exam II
Exam III
Chapters 1,2,3,4,
Chapters 13,5
Chapters 6,7,8
Feb
Mar
Apr
-
17
24
21
Final Exam
Chapters 9,10,18
May
17
Final exam Tuesday May 17, 8:00-9:52 a.m. Room to be
announced.
The chapters assigned for each exam are tentative and
are subject to change depending upon the pace of the
class.
Any student who may need an accommodation due to a
disability, please make an appointment to see me during
my office hours. A VISA from Services for Students with
Disabilities authorizing your accommodations will be
needed. Any student who may need an accommodation for a
religious reason, please see me within the first two weeks
of class
How to succeed on exams:
1. Attend class.
2. Read the text carefully
3. Do as many odd problems as possible.
4. Ask questions.
B.
Assignments
Class assignments will not be graded. A homework quiz will
be given on one of the homework problems. The quiz will
turned in at the beginning of class.
If the student is absent, the student must make
arrangements to come to my office and take a make-up quiz.
The make-up quiz can come from any problem in the chapter.
Assignment #1
Assignment #2
Assignment #3
Assignment #4
Assignment #5
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
1 exercises 4, 6, 10
2 exercises 18,38,40,44,
3 exercises 14,(use integers and
percentages as weights),20,28,46,52,56,
78 ,80
Chapter 4 exercises 14,22,26,34,40
Descriptive Statistics student survey
Chapter 13 exercises 4,10,20,26,50
Student survey use multiple regression
Ch 16 #4
Chapter 5 exercises 20,26,32,38,46,60,66,72,80
86, 88
3
Assignment #6
Assignment #7
Assignment #8
Assignment #9
Assignment#10
C.
Chapter 6
Pg 756 #12
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
exercises 4,14,22,36,44,50,64
Draw an outcomes tree omit EVPI
exercises 22,30,34,44,50,60,64
exercises 18,30,32,38,44
exercises 12,16,28,34,44,56
exercises 8,12,20,24
Bonus points
Individuals can earn bonus points based on the
schedule below. To earn bonus points the students
must ask for a make up problem within 2 weeks from the time
the exam was returned. The make-up problem will be similar
to a problem on the exam the student had the greatest point
deduction. The student must return the problem within 1
week.
Possible Individual Bonus Points
60 or less
7 points
61 to 69
5
70 to 79
3
80 or above
2
ALL BONUS POINTS WILL BE ADDED TO YOUR TOTAL POINTS
EARNED AT THE END OF THE SEMESTER
D.
Class Discussion
Your participation in class will greatly enhance the
learning process of you and your classmates.
E.
Class Project-optional
You will be expected to accumulate data during the
semester and analyze the data. The project will be
divided into four parts as shown below:
1. Introduction - (first draft) March 29 - 10
pts.
Explain what you plan to do and the statistical
procedures you are going to use. If you plan to
test a relationship between two variables, you
should provide a brief explanation as to why you
believe the two variables are related (i.e. what
economic or business theory are you testing?). To
receive credit for the introduction, a final draft
4
of the introduction must be included with your
project on May 5, 2011.
2. Data -------------------------------------- 10 pts
List your data and its source. You must submit your
data on a excel file via e-mail to receive these
points. I recommend you send the file as soon as you
get your data on excel. If your data source is a survey
you must submit all your survey responses.
3. Computations - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 50 pts.
This section must include the various statistical
procedures we learned in class such as: mean, median,
mode, minimum, maximum, mean absolute deviation,
variance, standard deviation, histogram, frequency
distribution, first and third quartiles, skewness,
and advanced analysis. Advanced analysis will
include at least one of the following techniques:
regression analysis, or time series. All advanced
analysis should include a hypothesis test. There will
be a 10 point penalty for not e-mailing your excel
file to me.
4. Analysis of your Data- - - - - - - - - - - - 20 pts.
You
should
interpret
all
your
descriptive
statistics. You should also interpret your advanced
analysis. If your project has a business or economic
application, discuss its importance.
5. Originality/Application - - - - - - - - - - 10 pts.
Are your findings consistent with or explainable
by economic theory, orthodox business principles,
or other a priori expectations?
6. Due Date -- - - - - - - - - - - - May 5, 2011
FIVE POINTS WILL BE DEDUCTED EACH LATE SCHOOL DAY.
10 point penalty if you do not submit a paper copy
of your project.
F.
Potential Projects
1.
Regression and Correlation
5
a. Analyze the relationship between season
attendance and wins of your favorite sports
b. Analyze the relationship between the change in
the price of a stock and the change in a stock
market index.
c. If you are associated with a business and have
access to sales, revenue or cost figures, a
regression is possible.
G.
2.
Time Series
a. Examine the relationship between sales and
b. Examine the relationship between a stock price
and time.
3.
Sampling and Hypothesis Testing
a. Conduct your own survey of Platteville students
to determine the unemployment rate, hours
Final Grade
The final grade will be determined by total points that
are accumulated through exams, quizzes and the
90% and above A
80% < 90%
B
70% < 80%
C
59% < 70%
D
Less than 59% F
The final grade will be determine by the percent of
points earned out of the total possible number of
points. There are four grading options:
1. Exams only
400 points
2. Exams and project
500 points
3. Exams and homework quiz
550 points
4. Exams, homework quiz, and project
650 points
The percent of total points necessary to receive an
A,B,C,D, or F is shown above. For example if you choose
option 1 you would need 360 points for an A. Should
your total points come to 350 and you have 20 bonus
points this would be a A. Should your total points
(including bonus points) come to within 6 points of a
grade boundary I will give you the higher grade if you
have missed 3 or fewer classes for the semester.
6
H. How to succeed in this class
1. Attend class.
2. Read the text carefully
3. Do as many odd problems as possible.
4. Ask questions.
III. Course Outline
A. Introduction
Ch 1
Week 1
B. Descriptive Statistics: Data Distributions
Frequency Distributions
Ch 2
Week 2
C. Descriptive Statistics:
Ch 3
Week 3&4
EXAM #1
D. Measures of Dispersion
E. Regression and Correlation
Analysis of Time Series
Trend Analysis
Ch 4
Ch 13
Ch 19
Week 5
Week 6&7
EXAM #2
F.
Probability
Ch 5
1.
Three Sources of Probability
2.
Mathematics of Probability
3.
Counting Techniques
G. Discrete Probability Distributions Ch 6
1.
Random Variables
2.
Expected Values
3.
Probability Distributions
4.
Binomial Tables
5.
Poisson Distribution
6.
Poisson Table
Week 7&8
Week 9
EXAM #3
H. The Normal Probability Distribution
Week
I. Sampling Methods and Sampling Distributions
1.
Samples of Population
Week
2.
Probability Sampling Methods
3.
Sampling Distribution of Sample Means
4.
The Central Limit Theorem
J. Estimation and Confidence Intervals Ch 9 Week
K. One-Sample Tests of Hypothesis
Ch 10 Week
EXAM #4
10&11
Ch 8
12
13&14
15