Taiwan's GHG Mitigation
Potentials and Costs:
An Evaluation with the MARKAL
Model
Ssu-Li, Chang
Professor, Institute of Natural Resource Management, National Taipei University, Taiwan
Miao-Shan, Tsai*
Researcher, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Taiwan
PhD student, Institute of Natural Resource Management, National Taipei University, Taiwan
Tzu-Yar, Liu
Lead Engineer, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Taiwan
IEW2012, Cape Town, Jane 19-21, 2012
* Corresponding author
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Outline
• Introduction
• MARKAL-Taiwan Model
• International GHG Reduction Trend
• Scenarios and Assumptions
• Simulation Results
• Discussions
• Conclusions
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Introduction (1/2)
• Taiwan is an island that lacks natural energy resources. It relied on
imported energy for 99.30% of its total supply, which comprises 91%
fossil fuels and only 0.25% of renewable energy (MOEABOE, 2011).
• Taiwan ranked 23rd in the world for countries with the highest CO2
emission countries (IEA, 2011).
145.58
58.52
Source: MOEABOE, 2011.
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Introduction (2/2)
• Copenhagen Accord asks
– The Annex I countries to submit quantitative reduction
commitment for 2020
– The non-Annex I countries to submit Nationally Appropriate
Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)
• Taiwan also announced its NAMAs to international
community
– CO2 reduction target: 30% lower than REF in 2020
• Objective
– Utilize MARKAL model to evaluate emission reduction on
Taiwan’s electricity, industrial, buildings, and transportation
sectors.
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MARKAL-Taiwan Model
• The Reference Energy System
75 processes 63 generation
technologies technologies
PROCESSES GENERATION
RESOURCES
Export
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ENERGY
SERVICES
Refineries
Import
Mining
256 demand
technologies
Electricity
Stocks
Fuel
processing
End-Use
Heat
Demand
Devices
Emissions
Controls
5
International GHG Reduction Trend (1/2)
• International Low Carbon Society Scenario in 2025
– CO2 Target: Lower than REF 0.7%~22%, lower than 2005 level
11%~32%
– Energy intensity: 0.13~0.61 toe/US$
– Energy per capital: 1.96~7.6 t CO2/per capita
WEO-2011
CO2 target
AEO-2011
Korea 2008
Japan-2009
Technology
Advance
(substantial
CO2
emission
reduction)
New
Policies
Scenario
450
Scenario
No
Sunset
Extended
Policies
Technology
Advance
Technology
Advance
(nine new
nuclear
plants)
lower than
REF
(%)
9
21
0.7
4.6
13
13
22
lower than
2005
(%)
27
-11
1.4
5.3
25
25
32
Similar
to REF
7% lower
than REF
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.06
0.06
average
energy
(%)
demand
growth rare
energy
(toe/US$)
intensity
in 2025
energy per
(tons/per
capital in
capita)
2025ITRI 工業技術研究院
Copyright 2008
1.5
0.13
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.13
1.96
2.24
7.60
7.56
7.29
(Energy
intensity)
0.21
6
International GHG Reduction Trend (2/2)
• Energy Structure in 2025
– WEO-2011 scenario: coal is the largest energy
– AEO-2011, Japan-2009, and Korea-2008 scenarios: oil is the
largest energy
Source: IEA(2011), USEIA(2011), NIES(2009), Korea(2008).
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Scenarios and Assumptions (1/3)
• Assumptions in MARKAL model
2011-2015
2016-2020
2021-2025
Average
REF
5.30
3.61
2.63
3.54
GDPL
3.58
3.29
3.04
3.14
Population
(%/year)
0.31
0.21
0.09
0.23
Household
(%/year)
1.63
1.41
1.23
1.5
GDP
(%/year)
Taiwan Industrial Structure (%)
Year
First
Secondary
Tertiary
2010
1.49
30.95
67.56
Taiwan Import Energy Price
Year
Crude oil
Coal
Coke
LNG
(US2007/bl) (US2007/t) (US2007/t) (US2007/t)
2010
68.82
54.84
118.60
444.93
2015
102.93
56.52
119.73
470.08
2015
1.16
30.87
67.96
2020
1.46
30.51
68.03
2020
105.51
55.18
119.97
507.05
2025
1.36
29.47
69.17
2025
109.97
56.19
124.33
549.15
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Scenarios and Assumptions (2/3)
•
Key Scenario Assumptions
REF
GDP
Average grow rate
3.54%/y from 2009 to
2025
Average grow rate
3.14%/y from 2009 to
2025
30% lower
REF in 2020
CO2
emission
target
than
in
GDPL

CHAM



-
-

Largest
reduction
amount in 2020
maintain at
level(822 Mt)
2008’s

Renewable
energy
Accumulated
installed capacity is
6,388MW in 2020
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CLAM


















up to 1400 Mt in 2020
Maintain
at
2008’s
level: total 2934.9 MW
CL30

Return
to
2000
emission level (214
Mt) in 2025
LNG
CH30

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Scenarios and Assumptions (3/3)
Energy
saving
Energy tech.
efficiency
improve 0.4%/yr
from 2009 ~
2025
REF
GDPL


high efficiency
technology
NPP1~ NPP3
normal
decommissioning
Nuclear energy

NPP4 operation
Coal-fired
unit installed
with
CCS
(carbon
removal
efficiency
90%) device
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
CHAM
CL30
CLAM

















NPP 1~ NPP3
extend service
NPP4 is deemed
as the
reduction
measure
CH30

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Simulation results(1/8)
• CO2 emission pathways in each scenario
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Simulation results(2/8)
• Energy Supply Structure
– The Energy supply growth rate from 2008 to 2025
• REF and GDPL: 1.8%/y~2.4%/y
• Four reduction scenarios: 1.3%/y ~1.5%/y
– The reduction scenario’s
• Total energy supply in 2020 and 2025 are reduced by about 12% relative
to REF.
• Coal and oil demand proportion more than 87% in REF, thus the
proportion of reduction scenario must be reduced to 73% ~ 76%.
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Simulation results(3/8)
• Power generation structure
– Electricity demand growth rate
• The REF and GDPL scenarios: 3.7%/y ~5.6%/y till 2025
• Four reduction scenarios decrease to 2%/y ~2.6%/y
– Increase electricity consumption ratio through fuel change choices.
Nuclear, gas or coal power generation as the base load unit.
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Simulation results(4/8)
• Sector energy demand in 2025
– Industry:
• REF and GDPL scenarios: the oil ratios provided 22.3%
• Reduction scenarios: the oil ratios provided 30%
Industry Sector
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Simulation results(5/8)
– Buildings:
• REF and GDPL scenarios: electricity provided 71%
• Reduction scenarios: Natural gas will replace electricity and oil is due
to natural gas target.
Buildings Sector
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Simulation results(6/8)
– Transport:
• REF and GDPL scenarios: Traditional fossil oils provided 97%
• Reduction scenarios: Traditional fossil oils are replaced under given
biomass energy targets in order to reduce the greenhouse gas
emissions
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Transport Sector
16
Simulation results(7/8)
• Total incremental cost in Reduction scenarios
–
–
–
–
2015: increases 27% relative to REF
2020: increase 20%~21% relative to REF
2025: increase 2%~7% relative to REF
the accumulated incremental cost will be 9%~14% relative to
REF.
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Simulation results(8/8)
• CO2 Index in Reduction Scenarios
– The per capita emission in 2020 are between 11.1~14.4 tons/per capita, and 9.5
tons/ per capita in 2025.
– The emission intensity are between 0.46~0.54 g/US$ in 2020 , and between
0.31~0.33 g/US$ in 2025.
– The energy intensity in 2020 are between 0.23~0.28 toe/US$ and 0.22 toe/US$ in
2025.
Year
REF
GDPL
CLAM
CHAM
CL30
CH30
Energy CO2 Total Amount (Mt)
2020
467
420
255
259
299
330
2025
532
489
214
214
214
214
Per Capita Emission of CO2(tons/ per capita)
2020
20.4
18.3
11.1
11.3
13.0
14.4
2025
23.7
21.8
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
Emission Intensity (g/US$)
2020
0.76
0.76
0.46
0.47
0.49
0.54
2025
0.76
0.76
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.31
Energy Intensity (toe/US$)
2020
0.30
0.33
0.28
0.28
0.23
0.23
2025
0.30
0.24
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
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Discussions (1/2)
• The energy demand growth rate
– REF and GDPL scenarios : more than 1.8%/y
– Reduction scenario: decreases to 1.4%/y, close to the growth rate
in WEO-2011.
• CO2 reduction ratio
– In 2025 a decrease of 56~60% relative to the baseline scenarios,
and decrease of 15% relative to 2005 level
– This result is higher than Kyoto targets of Annex I countries, and
also higher than reported in WEO-2011 and AEO-2011 scenarios.
• The total incremental cost
– The accumulated incremental cost will be 9%~14% relative to
REF.
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Discussions (2/2)
• Energy intensity
– Taiwan’s is higher than in WEO-2011, AEO-2011, and Japan2009 scenarios
– Near Korea-2008 scenario
• the Per capita emission
– Taiwan’s is also higher than WEO-2011 and AEO-2011 scenarios
• Because
– 98% of Taiwan’s energy system relies on imports from oversea
sources
– Limited natural endowments of domestic renewable energy
– Limitation of imported natural gas
– Nuclear power and oil accounts for high proportions in energy
demand structure
– Renewable energy only accounts for a small ratio in power
generation structure
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Conclusions
• Taiwan CO2 reduction target is higher than in both WEO
scenario and AEO scenario
• Taiwan total accumulated incremental cost increase will
be 9%~14% relative to REF
• For Taiwan, it is very difficult to reach the reduction target
just by relying on mitigation technology.
• It is also necessary to allow Taiwan to participate in
international flexible mechanisms.
• Such participation will also benefit the international
community’s GHG reduction efforts tremendously.
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Acknowledgements
• We would like to thank the Bureau of Energy for financial
support in building Taiwan MARKAL model.
• We thank Yu-Feng Chou, Jing-Wei Kuo, Kuei-Lan Chou,
Ming-Lung Hsu, and Shu-Yi Ho of MARKAL working
group in Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI)
for the research reported here.
• We thank Dr. Wei Ming Huang for his valuable
suggestions.
• Also we thank Jin-Shiuan Li, Ming-Chih Chuang, ChinWei Wu, Chi-Liang Tsai , Su-Chen Weng of Bureau of
Energy for additional support.
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Miao-Shan, Tsai
Researcher
Green Energy & Environment Research Laboratories
Industrial Technology Research Institute
E-mail: marshatsai@itri.org.tw.
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Appendix
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Model Background
• ITRI established MARKAL-Taiwan model since 1993
supported by ETSAP Outreach Program and Bureau of
Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs.
• Major Application
– The annual energy outlook
– The main analytic results includes:
• Energy supply outlook, Energy demand outlook, Power capacity,
Electricity Structure, Energy intensity, CO2 intensity, Per capita CO2
emission.
• To evaluate the benefits and costs of CO2 mitigation strategies, and
make comparison with other nations.
• To analyze the impacts of energy conservations and renewable
energy development strategies on the future energy structure and
GHG emissions of Taiwan.
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