COSTS IMBA Managerial Economics Jack Wu COSTS INTRODUCTION Cost and economies of scale Cost and economies of scope Experience Curve Relevant / Opportunity costs Transfer Pricing Irrelevant Costs/ Sunk costs ECONOMIES OF SCALE Fixed cost: cost of inputs that do not change with production rate Variable cost: cost of inputs that change with the production rate Fixed/variable costs concepts apply in Short run Long run EXPENSE STATEMENT D aily Production (thousands) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Labor $5000 $5000 $5000 $5000 $5000 $5000 $5000 $5000 $5000 $5000 Printing Press $1000 $1500 $2000 $2500 $3000 $3500 $4000 $4500 $5000 $5500 Ink and Paper $0 $1200 $2400 $3600 $4800 $6000 $7200 $8400 $9600 $10800 Electric pow er $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1000 $1100 Total $6200 $8000 $9800 $11600 $13400 $15200 $17000 $18800 $20600 $22400 FIXED AND VARIABLE COSTS Daily Production (thousands) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Fixed Cost $6200 $6200 $6200 $6200 $6200 $6200 $6200 $6200 $6200 $6200 Variable Cost $0 $1800 $3600 $5400 $7200 $9000 $10800 $12600 $14400 $16200 Total Cost $6200 $8000 $9800 $11600 $13400 $15200 $17000 $18800 $20600 $22400 Marginal Cost Average Fixed Cost Average Variable Cost Average Cost $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.62 $0.31 $0.21 $0.16 $0.12 $0.10 $0.09 $0.08 $0.07 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.18 $0.80 $0.49 $0.39 $0.34 $0.30 $0.28 $0.27 $0.26 $0.25 ECONOMIES OF SCALE Economies of scale (increasing returns to scale): average cost decreases with scale of production SCALE ECONOMIES: SOURCES large fixed costs research, development, and design information technology falling average variable costs distribution of gas and water container ships DISECONOMIES OF SCALE Definition: Diseconomies of scale (decreasing returns to scale) – average cost increases with scale of production ECONOMIES OF SCALE: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Either produce on large scale or outsource Seller side – monopoly/oligopoly Buyer side – monopsony/oligopsony ECONOMIES OF SCALE: GOOGLE VIS-À-VIS LIBRARY Which link(s) in service chain are scaleable? Compilation of information Providing service: servers and network Responding to enquiries ECONOMIES OF SCALE: CREDIT CARD PROCESSING First Data, 44% National Processing, 13% Nova, 8% “This is a scale business, and by adding PMT’s volume to our operating platform there is a tremendous advantage” Nova Chairman Edward Grzedzinski ECONOMIES OF SCOPE Economies of scope: total cost of production is lower with joint than with separate production Diseconomies of scope: total cost of production is higher with joint than with separate production EXPENSES FOR TWO PRODUCTS Organization Output Labor Printing Ink etc. Total Press Cost Separate production Daily Globe 50,000 $5,000 $3,500 $6,700 $15,200 Afternoon Globe 50,000 $5,000 $3,500 $6,700 $15,200 Two papers $30,400 Combined production Two papers 100,000$10,000 $3,500 $13,400 $26,900 ECONOMIES OF SCOPE source -- joint cost: cost of inputs that do not change with scope of production examples: • cable television + telephone banking + insurance manufacturing: refrigerator + air-conditioner strategic implication -- produce/deliver multiple products ECONOMIES OF SCOPE: CORE COMPETENCE Technology – apply common technology to multiple products Manufacturing – apply same process to multiple products LCDs – watches, PDAs LCDs, semiconductors Marketing – brand extensions spread promotional costs over multiple products/businesses DISECONOMIES OF SCOPE? TIME WARNER Carl Icahn and Bruce Wasserstein: Time Warner should break up into cable television systems film and television (including Warner Brothers, HBO and CNN) Time Inc. and magazines America Online HORIZONTAL BOUNDARIES Economies of scale Should bank merge with competitor? Should trucking company acquire smaller rivals? Economies of scope Should airline run catering service? Should bank sell insurance? Should university open a medical school? EXPERIENCE CURVE: AIRBUS A350 VS BOEING 787 April 2004 Boeing launched 7E7 Dreamliner jet with 50 firm orders from All Nippon Airways. Aimed to secure 200 orders by December. EXPERIENCE CURVE: AIRBUS A350 VS BOEING 787 December 2004 Boeing achieved 52 firm orders. Airbus launched A350. Airbus Chief Commercial Officer John Leahy: A350 would attract a substantial number of Boeing customers and “put a hole in Boeing's Christmas stocking”. Richard Aboulafia, Teal Group: Airbus had succeeded in its goal of “disrupt[ing] the business case for the 7E7”. EXPERIENCE CURVE Incremental cost falls with cumulative production run over time Unit cost falls with cumulative production run Distinguish from economies of scale within one production period EXPERIENCE CURVE EXPERIENCE CURVE Conditions Relatively large human resources input per unit of production Relatively small production runs Industries/processes (learning percentage) Aerospace (85%) Shipbuilding (80-85%) Complex machine tools for new models (75-85%) Repetitive electronics manufacturing (90-95%) Repetitive machining or punch-press operations (9095%) EXPERIENCE CURVE: STRATEGIC IMPLICATION Must accurately predict cumulative production Then set price accordingly Challenge – quantity demanded depends on competition and price. Example: Airbus A350 vs Boeing 787. RELEVANCE consider only relevant costs and ignore all other costs which costs are relevant depends on course of action relevant costs may be hidden irrelevant costs may be shown in accounts OPPORTUNITY COST definition -- net revenue from best alternative course of action two approaches • • show alternatives report opportunity costs EXAMPLE Williams bought a warehouse and paid $300,000 for it. She used her own money $200,000 and made a bank loan of $100,000. A developer were willing to buy warehouse for 2 million. If Williams sells warehouse, she could invest proceeds in government bonds and get a secure income $160,000 (2 million*8%). She could work elsewhere for salary $400,000. INCOME STATEMENT SHOWING ALTERNATIVES Revenue Expenses Profit Continue Warehouse Operations $700,000 $220,000 $480,000 Shutdown $560,000 $0 $560,000 Income statement reporting opportunity costs Revenue $700,000 Cost $780,000 Profit ($80,000) TRANSFER PRICING Generally, for internal economic efficiency, set transfer price = marginal cost Special cases Perfectly competitive market: transfer price = market price Production subject to full capacity: transfer price = highest marginal benefit from internal use Compare marginal benefit across internal users TRANSFER PRICING SUNK COST definition -- cost that has been committed and cannot be avoided alternative courses of action • • prior commitments planning horizon Fewer commitments fewer sunk costs; longer planning horizon fewer sunk costs. EXAMPLE Jupiter Athletic is about to launch a line of new athletic shoes. Some month ago, management prepared an ad campaign with total budget of $310,000. They forecast the ad would generate sales of 20,000 units. Each sale’s unit contribution margin (price- average variable cost) is $20. The total contribution margin is $20*20000=$400,000. Their expected profit generated from ad is $400,000-310,000=$90,000. EXAMPLE: CONTINUED Recently, a major competitor launch a new shoe. Jupiter estimates sales fall to 15,000 units. The contribution margin becomes $20*15,000=$300,000. Should Jupiter cancel the launch? INCOME STATEMENT SHOWING ALTERNATIVES Contribution margin Graphic arts consultant fee Road Runner charge Daily Globe charge Profit Continue Product Launch $300,000 $50,000 Cancel Launch $0 $50,000 $60,000 $200,000 ($10,000) $30,000 $20,000 ($100,000) Income statement omitting sunk costs Contribution margin Graphic arts cost Road Runner charge Daily Globe charge Profit $300,000 $0 $30,000 $180,000 $90,000 SUNK VIS-À-VIS FIXED COSTS Not all sunk costs are fixed Not all fixed costs are sunk