GE CAPITAL FUTURE FLEET CONFERENCE

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SMMT

New Car CO

2

Report

9 March 2010

Contents

• Average new car CO

2

Total new car CO

2 performance emissions

Impact on 2009 new car CO

2

• Scrappage Incentive Scheme performance

• 2009 CO

2 performance trends

• Outlook for UK new car CO

2 emissions

UK new car CO

2

emissions

• Continuous improvement, to new low of 149.5g/km

• 5.4% improvement on 2008 and 21.2% on 1997

UK average new car CO

2 emissions (Source SMMT)

190

185

180

175

170

165

160

155

150

145

140

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Total car CO

2

emissions

• Data to 2008 shows recent reduction in overall car emissions

• Impact of improved technology, as well as recession

Growth in car CO

2

120 emissions, fuel use, parc and distance travelled

(Source DECC, DFT ,SMMT)

CO2 emissions

115

Fuel used

Parc

Distance travelled

110

105

100

95

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Impact on 2009 performance

• Improved technology – more choice of lower emitters

• Recession – curbed demand for high emitters

• Scrappage incentive scheme

• Fuel prices – higher, encourages efficiency

• Government policy, notably taxation

• Consumer information – e.g. colour coded fuel label

• Consumer preference – shift to mini/supermini segment

Scrappage Incentive Scheme

• Strong take up, registrations largely mini/superminis

• SIS cars lower than average CO

2 emissions, at 133.3g/km

CO

2 emissions of car through SIS, total market and scrapped car (Source SMMT)

200

182,3

175

147,8

150

133,3

125

100

75

50

25

0

SIS cars Average new car Scrapped car

Change in emissions by segment

• All segments seen improvements

• Mini best gain in year, -6.7%. MPVs best versus 1997, -28.6%

Change in new car CO

2

0% emissions by segment, 2009 versus ‘08 and ’97 (Source SMMT)

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30% vs '08 vs '97

Distribution of CO

2

emissions

• Continuous shift to the left, into lower emitting models

• 20% market sub 120g/km, and 47% sub 140g/km

Distribution of the new car market by 5g/km CO

2 bands (Source SMMT)

14%

2009 2008 1997

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Distribution by VED

• Move to lower VED bands, E (131-140g/km) most popular

• Bands K-M (225g/km +) share now 5.8%, was 28.1% in ‘97

Distribution of the new car market by VED bands (Source SMMT)

A B C D E F G H I J K L M

2009

2008

2000

1997

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Outlook for new car CO

2

emissions

• New car CO

2 regulation – 130g/km by 2015 in EU

• Industry action, government measures, consumer sentiment

NAIGT technology road map (Source NAIGT)

Conclusions

• Further significant progress being made.

• Net impact on reducing total CO

2 emissions.

• Short term - progress may be tempered by economic recovery and removal of the SIS.

• Long term - VM response to regulation, national government measures and changing consumer sentiment to lower emissions.

• Integrated approach – industry (vehicle and fuel suppliers), government, and consumers to pull together for change. Automotive Council set up to aid process.

• Stability and predictability in taxation/regulation desired.

Report does also introduce van CO

2 emissions.

Thank you

Matthew Croucher mcroucher@smmt.co.uk

SMMT

New Car CO

2

Report

9 March 2010

Panel discussion

Rt Hon Pat McFadden MP, minister for business, innovation and skills

Robert Goodwill MP, Conservative shadow transport minister

Norman Baker MP, Liberal Democrat shadow transport secretary

Paul Everitt, SMMT

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