Risk and Vulnerability Assessment in
the Climate Change Adaptation Process
Jeff Zukiwsky
Zumundo Consultants
Fernie, Canada
March 25, 2010
Agenda
Topic
Time
4 Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability
Assessment
Summary of Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
40 min
Community updates
10 min
Brainstorming discussion: How to proceed with
risk and vulnerability assessment
30 min
2
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
10 min
Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
•
Develop a team
•
Create a plan
•
•
•
Engage and inform
stakeholders
Understand
potential future
climate scenarios
Risk/
Vulnerability
Assessment
Identify planning
areas/ sectors
affected by climate
change
3
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
•
Develop strategies
to address key risks/
vulnerabilities
•
Implement
•
Monitor
Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
1.
Risk-based Approach
2.
Vulnerability Assessment
3.
Hybrid – Combined RA/VA Approach
4.
Kimberley ‘working group’ approach
4
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
The Risk-Based Approach

Grounded in ISO/CSA Risk
Management standards

Guidebooks for Alberta, Ontario,
Caribbean, Arctic, and BC
Municipalities

Adopted and modified by Australia
Federal Gov. (workshop approach)

Tested in several CCA Plans:




5
Chicago, IL
Toronto, ON
Halifax Regional Municipality, NS
Micronesia and The Cook Islands
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
The Risk-Based Approach

3 Step Risk Assessment
Process
Risk Identification
(Preliminary Analysis)
2. Risk Estimation
3. Risk Evaluation
1.
From: ISO/CSA Risk Management standards
6
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
The Risk-Based Approach
Step 1: Risk Identification:

Identify ‘planning areas” within the
communit

Develop ‘risk scenarios’ for each planning
area (impact mapping or linear flows)

Consider:
7
•
Include a verb in every scenario
•
Aim for a cause effect statement
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
The Risk-Based Approach
Step 2: Risk Estimation
Estimate probability and consequence for
each ‘risk’ identified in step 1

Sample Consequence Scale
Public
safety
Critical
Large
numbers of
serious
injuries or
loss of lives
Environment
Community
and lifestyle
Widespread loss of
environmental
amenity/
irreversible.
Major
Moderate
Minor
Insignificant
8
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Local
economy
and growth
Public
Administration
The Risk-Based Approach
Step 2: Risk Estimation

Sample Consequence Scale
Social Factors
Health
and
safety
Displace
ment
Economic Factors
Loss of
Livelihood
Property
damage
Financial
impact
Very low
Low
Moderate
Major
Very Severe
9
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Community
impact
Environmental
Factors
Air
Water
Land
The Risk-Based Approach
Step 2: Risk Estimation

Sample Likelihood / Probability Scale
Single Events
Recurring Events
Remote
Very unlikely, improbable ,
probability small, less than 10%
Not very likely to occur
during the next 30 years
Unlikely
Less likely than not, but still
appreciable – probability 10-40%
May arise once in 10-30
years
Possible
About as likely as not – probability 40
to 60%
May arise once in 10 years
Likely
Likely, probable – probability 60 to
90%
May arise about once per
year
Almost certain
Highly probable, virtually certain –
probability greater than 90%
Could occur several times
per year
10
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
The Risk-Based Approach
Step 3: Risk Evaluation

Assemble risk ratings (probability x
consequence) on a risk matrix or risk table

Evaluate costs and benefits of each risk

Manually adjust any risks found to have
been over or under-rated
11
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
The Risk-Based Approach
Step 3: Risk Evaluation
Sample Risk Evaluation Matrix

High
Consequence
Negligible- No action required
Low- Some actions (public
education) may be desirable
Moderate- Some controls
required to reduce risk to
lower levels
High - High priority control
measures required
Low
Extreme - Immediate controls
required
Unlikely
Likely
Probability
12
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
The Risk-Based Approach
Step 3: Risk Evaluation

Risk Level
Sample Risk
Evaluation Table
Critical
High
Moderate
Minor
Insignificant
13
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Risk
The Risk-Based “Workshop Approach”
Before
Workshop
1. Define scope
2. Identify
stakeholders
3. Develop climate
scenarios
4. Agree on
evaluation
frameworks
5. Define ‘key
elements’
Risk
Assessment
Workshop
1.Identify threats and
opportunities
2.Assess threats and
opportunities
3.Evaluate threats
and opportunities
After
Workshop
1. Treated immediately
without further
analysis
2. Set aside without
further action for the
time being
3. Requires more
detailed analysis
From: Government of Australia (2008)
14
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
The Vulnerability Assessment Approach

Initiated by the IPCC

Recommended by:


NRCAN
C-CIARN
Used primarily in:



15
Academic journals
Developing countries
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability Assessment
IPCC 4AR:
7 criteria to identify ‘Key Vulnerabilities’
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
16
Magnitude
Timing
Persistence and Reversibility
Likelihood
Potential for adaptation
Distribution
Importance of the system
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability Assessment

NRCAN Model

Steps 2 – 4 are the “VA”
1.
2.
3.
17
Assess current situation
Estimate future conditions
Estimate future vulnerability
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability influenced by:
Adaptive capacity:



Coping Ranges:


Ability to moderate damages and cope
with consequences
The range of circumstances within which
significnt impacts do not occur
Critical Thresholds

18
Upper and lower boundaries of coping
range
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability Assessment


Ford & Smit (2004)
V = f (E, A)

Vulnerability is a
function of exposure
and adaptive
capacity
19
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Hybrid Approach


CIG Guidebook
Vulnerability Assessment followed by
Risk Assessment
Process Step
Vulnerability
Assessment
Risk Assessment
20
Purpose
• Find weak spots
• Figure out which risks can be adapted to with
available capacity, and which require actions
outside available capacity
• Figure out the highest risks needing action
• What to pay attention to first
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook

Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability = sensitivity x adaptive capacity
Planning
Area
Water
21
Current
Stress/ Impact
Managing
summer drought
Future Stress
with climate
change
Lower snowpack
and warmer drier
summers = more
drought
Sensitivity
analysis
Adaptive
Capacity
(high, medium,
low)
(high, medium
low)
High – drought
conditions likely
to worsen,
summer demand
exceeds supply
Low- cannot
influence
snowpack, limited
options to
expand water
supply
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability
(function of
sensitivity and
AC)
High
Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook

Risk Assessment

Current
Stress/
Impact
Managing
summer
drought
22
Risk = Consequence x Probability
Future
Stress with
climate
change
Lower
snowpack and
warmer drier
summers =
more drought
Sensitivity
High
Adaptive
Capacity
Low
Vulnerability
High
Consequence
Probability
Risk
(low, medium,
high)
(low, medium,
high, unknown)
(high, medium,
low)
High – public
safety threat,
loss of
confidence
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
High – already
a concern
and warmer,
drier conditions
expected.
High
Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook

End Result:

23
Priority planning areas based on risk and vulnerability
assessment
Low
Vulnerability
High
Vulnerability
High Risk
May be priority
planning areas
Should be priority
planning areas
Low Risk
Are unlikely to be
priority planning
areas
May be priority
planning areas
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Hybrid Approach- District of Elkford

Same as CIG, but substituted consequence for
vulnerability in the risk assessment process

“Workshop’ approach
Flooding Risks
Sensitivity
(L, M, H)
Adaptive Capacity
(L, M, H)
Vulnerability
(VL,L,M,H,VH)
Flooding of buildings or lands
Damage to bridge integrity
High
High
Low
Low
Very High
Very High
Storm water management stress
Moderate
High
Low
Death/ injury to river recreation
users
Low
Moderate
Low
Pumphouse floods and
compromises water supply
High
Moderate
High
24
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Hybrid Approach- District of Elkford
Sample:

Wildfire Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Summary
Wildfire
enters town
Very high
Vulnerability

Evacuation
Damage to
Infrastructure
High
Smoke alert
Mine closure Road highway
closure
Lawsuit
Moderate
Loss of life
Backcountry
forest
closure
Low
Very Low
Unlikely to
occur
May occur
once
Likely to
occur at
least once
Likely to
occur
several
times
Probability (20 year planning period)
25
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Occurs
frequently
Kimberley “Working Group” Approach

Used climate science, local observations, and input from workshops
and community survey to identify priority issues:





Water and Forests
Municipal Infrastructure
Tourism
Multi-stakeholder working groups formed to conduct vulnerability
assessment and identify adaptive actions for each issue
1st meeting:

Identify and screen vulnerabilities:




Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
Vulnerability
2nd Meeting

26
Outline adaptation actions for
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
What about opportunities?
Impact
(e.g. prolonged outdoor recreation
and summer tourism)
Opportunity
(e.g. increased revenue for tourism
businesses)
27
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Opportunity Assessment
Risks
V.
High
Probability
High
Mod
Low
V.
Low
V.
Low
Low Mod High
V.
High
Consequence
28
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Adopted from Hilson (2002)
Opportunity Assessment
Opportunities
V.
High
V.
High
High
High
Mod
Mod
Low
Low
V.
Low
V.
Low
V.
Low
Low Mod High
V.
V.
High Mod Low
High High
Probability
Probability
Risks
V.
Low
Consequence
29
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Adopted from Hilson (2002)
Summary
Strengths
Risk-based
Approach
30
• Linear, step by step approach
• Supported by International
Standards
• Consistent methodology and
terminology
Weakness
• Complex and subjective
assessment (likelihood)
• Not grounded in climate change
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Summary
Strengths
Risk-based
Approach
Vulnerability
Assessment
31
Weakness
• Linear, step by step approach
• Supported by International
Standards
• Consistent methodology and
terminology
• Complex and subjective
assessment (likelihood)
• Climate change specific
• Incorporates non-climatic
future scenarios
• Non-linear
• Coping ranges and critical
thresholds are difficult to
determine
• Not grounded in climate change
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Summary
Strengths
Risk-based
Approach
Weakness
• Linear, step by step approach
• Supported by International
Standards
• Consistent methodology and
terminology
• Complex and subjective
assessment (likelihood)
Vulnerability
Assessment
• Climate change specific
• Includes non-climatic future
scenarios
• Non-linear
• Coping ranges and critical
thresholds are difficult to
determine
Hybrid – combined
RA/VA
• Comprehensive
• Step by step guide
• Longer process, more resources
required
32
• Not grounded in climate change
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Summary
Strengths
Risk-based
Approach
Weakness
• Linear, step by step approach
• Supported by International
Standards
• Consistent methodology and
terminology
• Complex and subjective
assessment (likelihood)
Vulnerability
Assessment
• Climate change specific
• Includes non-climatic future
scenarios
• Non-linear
• Coping ranges and critical
thresholds are difficult to
determine
Hybrid – combined
RA/VA
• Comprehensive
• Step by step guide
• Longer process, more resources
required
Kimberley ‘working
group approach’
• Cost effective
• Builds community support for
process
• Few technical experts needed
• No standardized process
• Subjective VA process
33
• Not grounded in climate change
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Selecting a RA/VA Approach

Which process struck a cord with you?

Which process seems most appropriate for your
community?

What is your capacity/
resource availability?
34
Climate Change Risk &
Vulnerability Assessment
Selected References
•
Australian Government (2008) Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Retrieved
November 22, 2009 from: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/local-government/risk-management.aspx
•
Black, Bruce, & Egener (2009) Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-Based Guide for Alberta Municipalities. Retrieved November
22, 2009 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/176a_e.pdf
•
Carter, Parry, Nishioka , & Harasawa (1994) Technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations.
University College London, England and Centre for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, 59 pp
•
Harford, D. (2008) Climate Change Adaptation: Planning for BC. Retrieved from Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions website:
www.pics.uvic.ca/research.php
•
Hilson, D (2002) Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. International Journal of Project Management, 20, 235–240.
•
Noble, Bruce, Egener, (2005) An Overview of the Risk Management Approach to Climate Change in Canada. Retrieved March 11,
2010 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/NobleBruceEgener2005_e.pdf
•
NRCAN (Natural Resources Canada) (2007) From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. Chapter 8 –British
Columbia. Retrieved November 28, 2009 from http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php
•
Parzen, J. (ed). (2008). Chicago Area Climate Change Quick Guide: Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change. For
Municipalities and Other Organizations. Retrieved March 9, 2010 from:
http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/Chicago_Quick_Guide_to_Climate_Change_Preparation_June_2008.pdf
•
Schneider, Semenov, & Patwardhan, (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Chapter 19,
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp
•
Snover, Whitely Binder, Lopez, Willmott, Kay, Howell, & Simmonds. (2007). Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local,
Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland,
CA.
•
Halifax Regional Municipality (2007) Climate Change: Developer's Risk Management Guide.
35
Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment