Laying the Groundwork for Thinking about Liberty www.antonydavies.org As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns: the ones we don't know we don't know. —Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing www.antonydavies.org Laying the Groundwork for Thinking about Liberty ~ or ~ One misguided zealot can wreak more havoc than a roomful of idiots. www.antonydavies.org Things students believe are true. Misconception Knowledge Things that are true. The Unknown 3.14 33% of UK adults believe that Mount Everest is in Europe. – National Geographic, 2007 61% of American adults either do not believe in evolution or have no opinion. – Gallup, February 2009 www.antonydavies.org What We Think We Do Misconception www.antonydavies.org Knowledge The Unknown What We Really Do Misconception www.antonydavies.org Knowledge The Unknown Misconceptions Are the Enemy (a real conversation) As wages rise, more people enter the labor market. Cool. www.antonydavies.org Misconceptions Are the Enemy As wages rise, firms cut back on hiring. Got it. www.antonydavies.org Misconceptions Are the Enemy Therefore, price floors create surpluses. No problem. www.antonydavies.org Misconceptions Are the Enemy So, a minimum wage causes unemployment. www.antonydavies.org But we need a minimum wage because companies would pay zero if we let them. Misconceptions Are the Enemy Misconception www.antonydavies.org Knowledge The Unknown What We Need To Do Misconception www.antonydavies.org Knowledge The Unknown How Do We Dispel Misconceptions? 1. Data 2. Demonstrations www.antonydavies.org www.antonydavies.org Shameless plug www.antonydavies.org College Education (1978-2008) 4.0% 3.5% Unemployment Rate 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.4 0.42 Minimum Wage as Fraction of Average Hourly Wage Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, and Bureau of Labor Statistics www.antonydavies.org 0.44 0.46 HS Education (1978-2008) 12.0% Unemployment Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.4 0.42 Minimum Wage as Fraction of Average Hourly Wage Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, and Bureau of Labor Statistics www.antonydavies.org 0.44 0.46 Less than HS Education (1978-2008) 20.0% 18.0% Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.4 0.42 Minimum Wage as Fraction of Average Hourly Wage Data source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, and Bureau of Labor Statistics www.antonydavies.org 0.44 0.46 How Do We Dispel Misconceptions? 1. Data 2. Demonstrations www.antonydavies.org Workers Firms Find a firm willing to hire you at whatever price you can negotiate. Hire workers at whatever price you can negotiate. Goal: Get the highest wage you can. Goal: Maximize profit. www.antonydavies.org Firms Each firm gets a chart like this. The chart is the firm’s factory. Workers Hired Output Produced 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 10 14 17 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 33 35 Revenue from Sales of Output $0 $40 $56 $68 $80 $88 $96 $104 $112 $120 $128 $132 $140 Labor Cost $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 Profit $0 $30 $36 $38 $40 $38 $36 $34 $32 $30 $28 $22 $20 Each unit the firm produces is automatically sold for $4. www.antonydavies.org Suppose you can negotiate a price of $10 per worker. Workers Hired Output Produced 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 10 14 17 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 33 35 Revenue from Sales of Output $0 $40 $56 $68 $80 $88 $96 $104 $112 $120 $128 $132 $140 Labor Cost $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 All the workers will be hired 0% unemployment. www.antonydavies.org Profit $0 $30 $36 $38 $40 $38 $36 $34 $32 $30 $28 $22 $20 Now, impose a minimum wage of $15 per worker. Workers Hired Output Produced 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 10 14 17 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 33 35 Revenue from Sales of Output $0 $40 $56 $68 $80 $88 $96 $104 $112 $120 $128 $132 $140 Labor Cost $0 $15 $30 $45 $60 $75 $90 $105 $120 $135 $150 $165 $180 Only half of the workers will be hired 50% unemployment. www.antonydavies.org Profit $0 $25 $26 $23 $20 $13 $6 ($1) ($8) ($15) ($22) ($33) ($40) This demonstration can be done in 20 minutes and students immediately “get” two important lessons: 1. Minimum wage causes unemployment. 2. Left alone, firms will not pay zero. www.antonydavies.org Demonstration and data remove misconceptions, opening the mind to more knowledge. Misconception www.antonydavies.org Knowledge The Unknown Inoculate Against Misconceptions Economic misconceptions are usually the result of pride and prejudice. www.antonydavies.org Prejudice • Humans who work in the private sector are greedy. • Humans who work in the public sector are altruistic. www.antonydavies.org Truth • The same humans with the same strengths, failings, and desires occupy both sectors. www.antonydavies.org Schizophrenic Voters • The same people you claim are selfish in the marketplace you also claim are selfless in the voting booth. www.antonydavies.org Addict Voters • People want to be forced to do the right thing! Save us! www.antonydavies.org Pride • Economic truths are opinion. www.antonydavies.org Truth • The whole point of economic theory is to describe the real world. • Disconnects arise not from a failure of economics but from a lack of understanding of what economics is telling us. www.antonydavies.org Pride • Unwillingness to admit limitations. www.antonydavies.org Truth • It is impossible for an economy to provide everything that everyone wants. • Corollary: A majority vote does not bestow magical powers to circumvent limitations. www.antonydavies.org What is the point? www.antonydavies.org What We Need To Do Dispel misconceptions with data and demonstration. Less than HS Education (1978-2008) 20.0% 18.0% Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.4 0.42 0.44 0.46 Minimum Wage as Fraction of Average Hourly Wage Misconception Workers Hired Output Produced 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 10 14 17 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 33 35 Revenue from Sales of Output $0 $40 $56 $68 $80 $88 $96 $104 $112 $120 $128 $132 $140 Labor Cost $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 Knowledge The Unknown Profit $0 $30 $36 $38 $40 $38 $36 $34 $32 $30 $28 $22 $20 Inoculate by warning against pride and prejudice. www.antonydavies.org