Progressive Mathematics Initiative
www.njctl.org
Mathematics Curriculum
Unit Plan # 14
Title: Probability
Subject: Algebra 1
Length of Time: 2 weeks
Unit Summary: The unit looks to build on the probability learned in previous courses. The unit covers the
difference between theoretical and experimental probabilities and independent and dependent events.
Probabilities of mutually exclusive, overlapping, and complementary events will be calculated
Learning Targets
Conceptual Category: Statistics Domain: Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data
Cluster: Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single count or measurement variable
Standard#:
S-ID.2
Standard:
Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center (median, mean) and spread
(interquartile range, standard deviation) of two or more different data sets.
Conceptual Category: Statistics Domain: Making Inferences and Justifying Conclusions
Cluster: Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments
Standard#:
S-IC.1
Standard:
Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random
sample from that population.
Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating process, e.g., using simulation.
S-IC.2
Cluster: Make inferences and justify conclusions from sample surveys, experiments, and
observational studies
Standard#:
Standard:
Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies;
S-IC.3
S-IC.5
S-IC.6
explain how randomization relates to each.
Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if differences
between parameters are significant.
Evaluate reports based on data.
Conceptual Category: Statistics Domain: Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability
Cluster: Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data
Standard#:
S-CP.1
S-CP.2
S-CP.4
Standard:
Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the
outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (“or,” “and,” “not”).
Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the
product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.
Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object
being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to
approximate conditional probabilities.
Unit Essential Question:
 How can we predict the likelihood of an event
occurring?
Unit Enduring Understandings:
 Probability is the number of ways an event can
happen divided by the total outcomes.
 Fundamental Counting Principle
 Permutations
 Combinations


Mutually Exclusive events
Complementary events
Unit Objectives:
 Students will be able to describe the likelihood of an event occurring.
 Students will be able to apply the Fundamental Counting Principle to find combinations.
 Students will be able to recognize that a situation is a combination or permutation and calculate the
ways in which can occur.
 Students will be able to calculate the probability of compound events.
 Students will be able to recognize mutually exclusive and overlapping events and calculate the
probability of that event.
 Students will be able recognize complementary events.
Evidence of Learning
Formative Assessments:
 SMART Response questions used throughout the unit.
 6 Quizzes
Summative Assessment:
 Unit Test
Lesson Plans
Lessons
Timeframe
Lesson #1: Intro to Probability
Lesson #2: Experimental & Theoretical
Lesson #3: Word Problems
Quiz 1 Experimental & Theoretical
Lesson #4: Fundamental Counting Principle
Quiz 2 Word Problems
Lesson #5: Permutations and Combinations
Quiz 3 Fundamental Counting Principle
Lesson #6: Probability of Compound Events
Quiz 4 Permutations and Combinations
Lesson #7: Probability of Mutually Exclusive &
Overlapping Events
Lesson #8: Complementary Events
Quiz 5 Probability of Compound Events,
Mutually Exclusive, & Overlapping Events
Lesson #9: Review and Unit Test
Curriculum Resources:
 www.njctl.org/courses/math/algebra/
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