Data Analysis, Probability,
Predictions, & Proportions
It’s Probably Raining Fractions
Presented by:
CATHY JONES
Secondary Math Instruction Specialist
Center for Mathematics and Science Education
Arkansas NASA Education Resource Center
WAAX 202 #1 University of Arkansas
Fayetteville, Arkansas 72701
(479) 575-3875
(479) 575-5680 (FAX)
e-mail: cej001@uark.edu
http://www.uark.edu/~k12 info/
It’s Probably Raining Fractions
Arkansas 4th grade SLEs:
DAP. 16.4.1 Make predictions for a given set of data
DAP. 17.4.1 Use fractions to predict probability of an
event
DAP. 17.4.2 Conduct simple probability experiments,
record the data and draw conclusions about the
likelihood of possible outcome
During the month of April the head
meteorologist for the town of
Chewandswallow tried to forecast or
predict the weather for the entire month so
the citizens would know whether they
would need spoons or forks each day.
Because of what happened last year in
April, he prepared for pea soup and
spaghetti.
April Last Year – Find the fractions!
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
1
Thu
2
Pea soup
5
6
Spaghetti
12
7
Spaghetti
13
Spaghetti
19
14
20
26
Pea soup
Pea soup
Spaghetti
Spaghetti
Spaghetti
Spaghetti
spaghetti
18
Spaghetti
24
30
Pea soup
Pea soup
Pea soup
Pea soup
Pea soup
11
17
23
29
Spaghetti
Pea soup
Pea soup
Sat
4
10
16
22
28
Spaghetti
Spaghetti
Pea soup
3
9
15
21
27
Spaghetti
Pea soup
Pea soup
Spaghetti
8
Fri
Spaghetti
25
Pea soup
Pea soup
Group Findings
• Did it rain pea soup more or less than 1/2
of the month? How do you know?
• How many days did it rain spaghetti on
your April calendar?
• As a fraction, how can you say and write
the number of days in April it rained
spaghetti?
Drawing Conclusions
• Which fraction best describes the probability
of it raining spaghetti in April? Why?
• If the weather were similar to April for the
entire year, how many days would you
expect it to rain pea soup?
• How might your simulation and the results
change for the month of February?
• Why is the probability of raining spaghetti
and pea soup on the same day 0?
Think about it…..
What’s the “Theoretical” probability
Experiment…..
Find the “Experimental” probability
Use a random drawing…a spinner…a die… a
coin that will accurately represent what
happened last April.
Did the experiment turn out like you thought it
would?
Is everyone’s the same?
What do you think will happen
if we compile all the data?
November Last Year
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
1
Spaghetti
2
3
Pea soup
4
Spaghetti
Spaghetti
9
10
Spaghetti
11
Spaghetti
16
17
Pea soup
Pea soup
30
Pea soup
Pea soup
Spaghetti
22
Spaghetti
28
Spaghetti
Spaghetti
15
21
27
Pea soup
Spaghetti
Spaghetti
Spaghetti
8
14
20
26
Spaghetti
Pea soup
Spaghetti
Pea soup
7
13
19
25
Spaghetti
Spaghetti
12
18
24
6
Pea soup
Spaghetti
Spaghetti
23
5
Spaghetti
29
Pea soup
Spaghetti
More Group Findings
• Did it rain pea soup more or less than 1/3
of the month? How do you know?
• How many days did it rain spaghetti on
your November calendar?
• As a fraction, how can you say and write
the number of days in November it rained
spaghetti?
Experiment…..
Find the “Experimental” probability
• Participants will conduct an experiment of
this November’s weather
• Can you use a random drawing?
• Can you use a spinner?
• Can you use a die?
• Can you flip a coin?
…More Conclusions
• On the November spinner, which food has
a probability closer to 1? Explain.
• Why is raining spaghetti more probable
than raining pea soup for the November
spinner?
• For the fractions describing the chances
for raining a certain food, will the
numerator ever be larger than the
denominator? Explain.