CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN PROBABILITY LESSON
Subject: Probability using various prediction strategies (random drawing, spinner, coin flip, die)
Grade: Four
Materials: Work in pairs…1 green crayon, 1 red crayon, 2 page handout (April & November), plus
1 set of materials listed below needed per pair
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Small paper bag with 15 green cubes, 20 red cubes
Protractor and straight edge, circle cut out, paper clip, pencil
Coin (replace with a multi-sided die for November)
Six-sided die
I. Behavioral Objectives:
After a teacher-directed math lesson, the students will: define probability; predict,
record, and discuss outcomes from a random drawing; and identify most likely and least likely
outcomes. Each student will conduct a random drawing, record their findings and analyze the
data.
II. Instruction/Method:
A. Anticipatory Set:
1. Explain that today they will learn about probability.
2. Define probability as a mathematical term for chance. (The chance that something
will happen.)
3. Brainstorm ideas of probability in everyday life, such as the weather forecast (chance
of rain), decisions we make that depend on the chance of the outcome (Should I take
an umbrella with me?), the chance of winning the lottery, and playing games (chance of
winning).
4. Share the book Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs by Judi Barrett and weather
forecasts from the newspaper or the television.
5. Review ways to collect and organize data. First, review ways to collect data. Then,
review how to organize data in a chart. Remind the students that tally marks are
always made in groups of five. Show them an example of a data chart with information
recorded with tally marks (one that the students have made in a previous lesson would
be great). Last, review the pictograph, circle graph, and bar graph and show examples
of each.
B. Statement of Objective:
"When we finish today you will have discussed theoretical and experimental probability and will
be able to predict, record, and discuss outcomes using various experiments and identify most
likely and least likely outcomes."
Arkansas 4th grade SLEs:
DAP. 16.4.1 Make predictions for a given set of data
DAP. 17.4.1 Use fractions to predict probability of an event
DAP. 17.4.2 Conduct simple probability experiments, record the data and draw
conclusions about the likelihood of possible outcome
C. Instructional Input:
1. Review the definition of probability (chance).
2. Discuss the following definitions to ensure understanding: "likely," "more likely," "less
likely," and "equally likely."
3. Use the weather forecast, an everyday example of probability in use, to help the
students understand these new terms. Compare the weather forecasts for several
days using the terms. For example, if the forecast states that there is a 20% chance
of rain on Monday and a 90% chance on Tuesday, ask the students which day it is more
likely to rain, which day it is least likely to rain, and so on.
4. Discuss what a random drawing is.
D. Modeling:
1. Explain to the students that they are now going to conduct several experiments in
which they will learn more about probability. Discuss last April’s weather (calendar
page attached). If this April is to be similar discuss the “theoretical” probability.
2. Let the students investigate the “experimental” probability of this April’s weather.
Using last April as a predictor for pea soup or spaghetti, they will place the
appropriate # of cubes in a bag, they will make a spinner, flip a coin, or they will roll a
die all appropriately colored and proportioned to represent last April’s weather.
3. Discuss how the students will decide how many blocks of each color should be in the
bag, how to color and proportion their spinner and their die to roll. Will flipping a coin
work?
4. After each group has completed their experiments, see if it matches the theoretical
predictions.
5. Discuss their different strategies and outcomes. Do all the outcomes have the same
results? If we combined all the results together would we see truer prediction?
Why?
6.
Find the mean of the data and see if we are closer to the original “theoretical”
prediction.
E. Checking for Understanding:
1. Use the calendar provided for last November. Can we still use the same manipulatives
to do the experiment? How would they have to be changed? Will the coin still work?
Use a multi-sided die instead of the coin. Discuss if it will work.
2. Conduct the same experiment using the November calendar.
APRIL AND NOVEMBER WORKSHEETS:
April Last Year
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
1
Pea soup
Thu
2
Spaghetti
Fri
Sat
3
Spaghetti
4
Pea soup
5
Spaghetti
6
Spaghetti
7
Pea soup
8
Spaghetti
9
Pea soup
10
Pea soup
11
Spaghetti
12
Spaghetti
13
Pea soup
14
Pea soup
15
Pea soup
16
Pea soup
17
Spaghetti
18
Spaghetti
19
Spaghetti
20
Pea soup
21
Pea soup
22
Pea soup
23
Spaghetti
24
Pea soup
25
Pea soup
26
Spaghetti
27
Spaghetti
28
Spaghetti
29
Pea soup
30
Spaghetti
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
April This Year
Sun
Mon
Tue
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
November Last Year
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
1
Spaghetti
2
Pea soup
3
Spaghetti
4
Spaghetti
5
Pea soup
6
Pea soup
7
Spaghetti
8
Spaghetti
9
Spaghetti
10
Spaghetti
11
Spaghetti
12
Spaghetti
13
Spaghetti
14
Pea soup
15
Spaghetti
16
Pea soup
17
Spaghetti
18
Pea soup
19
Spaghetti
20
Pea soup
21
Spaghetti
22
Spaghetti
23
Pea Soup
30
Spaghetti
24
Spaghetti
25
Spaghetti
26
Pea soup
27
Spaghetti
28
Pea soup
29
Spaghetti
Thu
Fri
30
November This Year
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Sat
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
F. Extended lessons:
1. This will be a good time to start the book Charlie and the Chocolate Factory by Roald
Dahl. It will need to be read up to chapter five, which talks about the golden tickets
and Charlie's small chance of getting a gold ticket. If your class has read Charlie and
the Chocolate Factory retell the story and reread chapter five.
2. Discuss what a small chance Charlie had to win a golden ticket and how he must have
felt about having such a small chance.
3. Divide the class into heterogeneous groups of four. Give each group a paper bag with
one golden Hershey Kiss and three silver Hershey Kisses inside.
4. Explain that the students are now going to perform their own random drawings for
"gold tickets." Discuss how they are going to record their data in a data chart with
tally marks. Discuss and draw together what the chart should look like and what
information the chart should contain.
5. Instruct each group to take turns drawing a kiss out of the bag without looking
(remind them that not looking is what makes it random). Record the color on their
data chart, and then return the kiss to the bag. Each person will draw five times
(total of 20 draws).
6. If necessary, assign each group member a number 1, 2, 3, or 4.
Student Number:
#1-Please draw a Kiss out of the bag without looking five times.
#2-Please record the color of the Kiss drawn each time on the data chart.
#3-Make sure the Kisses are returned to the bag after each draw and shake the bag
before the next draw.
#4-Group leader: Make sure everyone is doing his or her job and that the group
member drawing the Kiss from the bag is not looking.
After five draws, the members will change jobs until everyone has had a turn to draw
five Kisses.
7. After ten drawings (or the first two students), have the students stop and make
predictions about the number of silver Kisses, the number of gold Kisses, and the total
number of Kisses.
8. Instruct the groups to record their results in a bar graph or pictograph to be shared
with the class.
9. Walk to each group and observe who is working well in the group, who is following
directions, and how well each student seems to understand the activity.
G. Independent Practice:
1. Give each student his or her own paper bag of Kisses with a new number of silver
Kisses in each one.
2. Have the students perform his or her experiment with the same directions that
applied to the guided practice, except they should draw twenty times on their own.
Remind them to stop after ten drawings and make predictions.
3. Have these questions on the overhead for the students to answer about their
experiment:
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What color Kiss were you more likely to draw?
What color Kiss were you least likely to draw?
How many gold or silver Kisses need to be added to make your chances
equal?
Graph your results in a pictograph, circle graph, or bar graph.
4. Enjoy your Kisses.
5. Oversee this activity in case someone needs help.
1. Strategies to use with Exceptional Children:
a. For enrichment, add more gold and silver Kisses and a new color Kiss to the gifted
children's bags.
b. For remediation, do not change the number of Kisses in their bags and if necessary,
allow them to work in pairs.
2. Activities which Value Cultural Diversity:
a. Children who speak English as a second language will make their charts and graphs
in their native language.
b. Children from other cultures will tell about and show, if possible, candy related to
their culture.
3. Activities which Foster Active Inquiry, Critical Thinking, and Problem Solving:
a. Send a note home to the parents explaining to them that we are learning about
probability. Have them play a game with their child along with other family
members and discuss the fairness of the game and what the child's chances are of
winning. Children can also bring in the weather forecast for several weeks and
chart how accurate the meteorologist is. Another idea would be for the child and
parents to come up with a list of events that describe things that always happen,
sometimes happen, and never happen.
b. The class will take a field trip to a local television station to ask the meteorologist
how he or she predicts the weather. A guest speaker would also work.
H. Closure and Summary:
1. Bring the session to a close by having the children share their group graphs and then create a
class graph about the combined data.
2. Have the children bring in examples of probability that they find at home like the weather
forecast or lottery tickets.
3. Have the children write in their learning journals about what they learned from this lesson and
at least one question they still have.
III. Assessment Techniques:
The students will predict, record, and discuss outcomes using a random drawing
experiment and identify most likely and least likely outcomes.
It must be determined whether a child understands and can analyze information
collected, organize data, and display data through tally charts, pictographs, bar graphs, and
circle graphs as prerequisite skills. In order to determine whether the children understand and
can analyze information collected, the teacher could provide a graph of information and have
the children answer questions about the graph. In order to determine whether the child can
organize and display data through tally charts, pictographs, bar graphs, and circle graphs, the
teacher could provide the children with the data and have them display it in these ways.
IV. Materials:
example of data chart, example of line graph, bar graph, and pictograph, weather forecast from
newspaper or television, paper bags, for each student, one for class activity, and one for each
group, several bags of Hershey Kisses in silver, gold, and one other color, poster board for each
group to record their graphs, and lineless paper for each student to record his or her graph.
Books:
Barrett, J. (1978). Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs. Canada: Collier Macmillan Canada, Inc.
(ISBN: 0-689-30647-4)
Dahl, R. (1964). Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
Reference:
Hope, J., Lawerence, P., Martin, M., & Small, M. (1996). Mathematics and Children's Literature.
Warren, NJ: Optical Data Corporation.
Predictions:
Number of Gold: ________
Number of Silver: ________
Total number of Kisses:_______
Color
Silver
Tally
Total
Gold