CONFERENCE
TRANSITIONS IN THE ARAB WORLD : KEY LESSONS FROM THE
MOROCCAN MODEL
MOHAMMED TAWFIK MOULINE
DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
SHANGHAI, March 9th, 2012
THE SHANGHAI SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION
Summary
1.
The Arab Spring, multiple factors and contrasting evolutions
1.1. The factors behind the Arab Spring
1.2. Keys to understanding the current processes in the Arab world
1.3. Some outcomes of the Arab Spring
2. Morocco in the context of the Arab Spring
2.1. The Basis of the Moroccan model
2.2. The constitutional reform : A catalyst for accelerating Morocco’s
development trajectory
2.3. Some challenges to be addressed to succeed in the constitutional
reform
2
1. The Arab Spring, multiple factors and
contrasting evolutions
3
The factors behind the Arab Spring
The events of the Arab Spring surprised by the exceptional scale of their political consequences as well as
the quickness and the unpredictability of their spread. These events were fed by several evolutions :
On the internal level :
 Unsustainability of the fallen regimes, where the political system did not allow the emergence of
the Rule of Law and where the margins of freedom were reduced or non-existent.
 Economic marginalization of large segments of the population due to the rise of unemployment
and social inequalities.
On the external level:
 The global economic crisis worsening social situation of the youth and the deprived segments of
the population. It exposed the regimes inability to restore the macroeconomic balances.
 Ineffectiveness of the Islamist threat as a justification to maintaining authoritarian regimes. The AlQaeda threat has no longer the same reasonance.
 Recent intransigence of the international community towards dictatorial regimes.
4
Regulations and social order
Morocco stands out from many Arab countries by its more fragmented and less authoritarian social
regulations.
Personalized and
authoritarian social order
Open
social order
Personnalized and decentralized
social regulations
Source: IPD 2009
5
Keys to understanding the current processes in the Arab world (1/2)
 In Tunisia, the high concentration of power, the weakness of civil society and the noninvolvement of citizens in public affairs and politics, the high level of unemployment,
particularly among the youth, and social inequalities have fueled a climate of tensions and
distrust regarding official institutions.
 In Egypt, like in Tunisia, the claims were both social and political. The relatively peaceful
demonstrations and the neutrality of the Egyptian army, the largest in the Arab world,
were key factors in the process of overthrowing Mubarak’s regime.
 In Libya, the destabilization affected the tribal alliance system that brought Qadhafi’s tribe to
power. Demands for political reforms have quickly shifted to an armed insurrection and then
to a civil war. Although the Libyan State held sufficient financial resources to face the popular
protests, claims went far beyond simple social demands.
 In Yemen, social protests led to the signing of an agreement negotiated by the Gulf
monarchies allowing the departure of President Saleh. Presidential elections were held on
February 21st , 2012.
6
Keys to understanding the current processes in the Arab world (2/2)
 In Syria, the population is a mosaic of ethnic and sectarian communities with fluctuating
relations. Also, many disputes inherited from the past and maintained by the Baathist regime which
established the rule of the Alawite minority (10% of the population), have led to protests
from the country's Sunni majority. The protest movement were violently repressed by Assad’s regime.
 In Algeria, the popular protests are not new as there have been ongoing protests since 2001. All the
socioeconomic and political ingredients are present, but because of the Algerian people’s trauma since
the civil war of the 1990s and the experience of the army and police in dealing with riots, the protest
movement has been relatively contained since April 2011.
 In Bahrain, internal conflicts between the Sunni minority and the Shia majority have lasted for
decades. However, the economic crisis that had a major impact on the country, which does not depend
on oil revenues, has exacerbated the internal tensions. Saudi Arabia and the countries of the Gulf
Cooperation Council have deployed their armed forces to help the kingdom contain the popular
uprisings. The protests resumed in January 2012.
 In Jordan, the protests began in January 2011 but did not affect the King Abdullah II, who carried
out changes in the government to accelerate the reforms, with the priority being given to the
fight against corruption and the high cost of living.
7
Some outcomes of the Arab Spring (1/2)
Common outcomes :
The events of the Arab Spring resulted in outcomes that are common to several
Arab countries where the regime has fallen :
• Fundamental psychological change associated with the collapse of the wall
of fear.
• Strong popular demands that must be echoed in the implemented public
policies.
• Emergence of a democratic process leading to elections considered credible by
the international community.
• Rise to power of new elites who share an Islamic background, while claiming
their aspiration for modernity.
8
Some outcomes of the Arab Spring (2/2)
Specific outcomes :
• In Egypt, the main political issue lies on the scope of powers that the Egyptian
army will concede to the parliament.
• In Libya, the state is embryonic and the country is to be rebuilt. Sporadic
fightings,
so
far
of
low
intensity,
continue
between different tribes and militias previously united against Qadhafi.
• In Yemen, there is a fear that the already fragile state collapses as it shelters
terrorist groups.
• In Syria, the conflict, gaining international momentum, could have destabilizing
consequences for the entire region.
9
2. Morocco in the context of the Arab Spring
10
The basis of the Moroccan Model
The widespread and violent popular protests spared Morocco because of its particular
characteristics in the MENA region:
• Morocco is a thousand-year-old monarchy comforted by a large popular legitimacy.
• The King, Head of State and Commander of the Faithful, embodies the powers conferred
by the Constitution,
• Morocco opted very early, for political pluralism and a balanced market economy.
• Early on, Morocco has fostered the emergence and the development of non-governmental
actors (trade unions, media, civil society, ...).
• From the 90s on, a national reconciliation process has been initiated, highly supported by
various actors of the civil society in order to exhume the past and to conceive the future with
better prospects.
11
The constitutional reform : A catalyst for accelerating Morocco’s
development trajectory
Unique in the Arab World, the constitutional reform is the result of a process of economic, political
and
social
reforms
that
have
been
undertaken
since
the
early
1980s. Moroccans overwhelmingly voted in favor of the Constitution after a referendum in July
2011 with a turnout of over 75%.
The main contributions of the new Constitution :
• The plurality of the Moroccan identity at the heart of which lies the Amazigh identity as a common heritage
is constitutionally recognized,
• Strengthening of the Rule of Law and the institutions.
• Strengthening of the powers of the Head of the Government, who is freely elected.
• Strengthening the role played by political parties as part of an effective pluralism.
• Increasing the moral standards of public life
• Consolidation of a clear and balanced separation of powers.
• Constitutionalisation of bodies in charge of human rights and protecting freedoms. Moreover, the
environment and the security are added to the fundamental rights
• Consecration
of
the
advanced
regionalization
competitiveness and the decrease of inequalities.
process
serving
the
regional
12
Legislative Elections of 2011
• The new Constitution was followed by legislative elections in November 2011: victory of the PJD (Party for
Justice and Devlopement) which has an islamic background.
• These elections fullfilled the shift from a consensual political transition to a transition through the vote.
Share of seats won by Islamist parties in the last legislative elections
70%
65,3%
60%
50%
40%
41,5%
30%
27,1%
20%
10%
0%
Morocco : Party of Justice and Development
(PJD)
Tunisia: Ennahda Party
Egypt: Freedom and Justice Party (Muslim
Brotherhood) and An-Nour party
13
The constitutional reform : The challenge of implementation
• Implementation of the principles and mechanisms introduced by the
Constitution through several organic laws that remain to be drafted.
o These laws should strengthen the new powers and attributions of the
government, the parliament and the judiciary.
• Strengthening governance of public policies for greater efficiency of the reforms.
• To support the constitutional reform, special attention should be paid to the very
urgent issues, notably the fight against inequalities and youth unemployment.
14
Morocco’s assets to succeed in the constitutional reform
• A strong national sense of belonging,
• A cultural, ethnic and linguistic diversity recognized by the constitution
• Strong family ties which constitutes the main basis of the social bond
• A greater openness as a strategic and irreversible choice
15
Strong sense of national belonging
Important elements defining the fact of being Moroccon, according to the
respondents
10
9.3
9.3
9.2
8
7.9
7.8
7.5
6
5.4
4
3.03
2
1,93
2.00
To love one's
country
To be Muslim
3.08
3.34
3.61
2.05
0
To be attached to To know Morocco's To speak Arabic
the territorial unity
history
To live in Morocco To speak Amazigh
Standard deviation
Source: IRES
16
Cultural and linguistic diversity not viewed as a threat
Differences that are most likely to disrupt social cohesion
100%
34.5
80%
37.9
50.5
57.5
61.5
60.6
73.5
60%
20.2
23.8
Low
40%
22.8
20.5
45.3
20%
18.2
19.4
38.3
Medium
16.8
26.7
22.1
20.3
20.0
9.7
0%
Social
differences
Source: IRES
Differences in
political or
ideological
affiliation
Differences in
Differences
religious
between natives
practices
and foreigners
Language
differences
Gender
differences
Age differences
High
Very strong family bonds
Percentage of
respondents
Intensity of various social bonds
Source: IRES
18
Some obstacles to overcome in order to release the country’s
development potential
•
A weak political bond that
low institutional confidence,
translates
into
a
relatively
•
Fragmentation of the political landscape, although there is a slight
attenuation compared to 2007 parliamentary elections,
•
Some concerns in terms of the levels of corruption and
socioeconomic inequalities,
•
Strengthening of traditional and institutional solidarities.
19
Decline of the political landscape fragmentation
PJD [27,1%]
Four parties are present at
the government: PJD, PI,
MP, PPS, that is 55% of the
parliament seats.
RNI [13,2%]
PI [15,2%]
PAM [11,9%]
USFP [9,9%]
MP [8,1%]
UC [5,8%]
PT [1%]
PPS [4,6%]
Others [3,2%]
395 seats in the
Parliament
Political parties represented in the Parliament following the 2011 legislative elections
PI [16%]
MP [12,6%]
PJD [14,2%]
RNI [12%]
UC [8,3%]
PND [4,3%] FFD [2,8%]
MDS [2,8%]
Five parties are present at
the government : PI, MP,
RNI, USFP, PPS, that is 57,5%
of the parliament seats.
PADS/CNI/PSU [1,8%]
USFP [11,7%]
PT [1,5%]
PPS [5,2%]
PT [1,5%]
325 seats in the
Parliament
PRE [1,2%]
Others [4%]
Political parties represented in the Parliament following the 2007 legislative elections
20
Renewed interest for the elections
Turnout at the legislative elections (2007) and local elections (2009)
50%
46.3
40%
42.4
30%
20%
10%
8.3
2.5
0%
Yes, I voted in both
elections
No, I voted in
neither election
I only voted in the I only voted in the
legislative elections
local elections
Source: IRES
80%
The July 2011 constitutional
change and the ensuing early
elections in November were
marked by a renewed interest in
Moroccan politics.
Official turnouts in 2011
75.5
60%
40%
45.4
20%
0%
Constitutional referendum
Legislative elections
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