ACCESS AND
OPPORTUNITY
IN AMERICA:
Creating a Data-Driven
Approach to Reaching and
Retaining Students
Kentucky Community and Technical
Colleges
Versailles, KY
April, 2013
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America: Two Enduring Stories
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1. Land of Opportunity:
Work hard, and you can become
anything you want to be.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
2. Generational Advancement:
Through hard work, each generation
of parents can assure a better life —
and better education — for their
children.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Powerful narratives.
Fast slipping away.
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Within the U.S., income
inequality has been rising.
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Earnings among the lowest income families have
declined, even amid big increases at the top.
Percent Growth in Mean Family Income
Constant Dollars, 1980-2010
80%
60%
40%
78%
51%
20%
25%
5%
0%
14%
-7%
-20%
Lowest
20%
Second
20%
Third
20%
Fourth
20%
Top
20%
Top
5%
Source: The College Board, “Trends in College Pricing 2011” (New York: College Board, 2010), Figure 16A.
©©2013
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Instead of being the most equal, the U.S. has the third
highest income inequality among OECD nations.
1.00
0.90
Gini Coefficient
0.80
0.70
United States
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Note: Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates total income equality and 1 indicates total income inequality.
Source: United Nations, U.N. data, http://data.un.org/DocumentData.aspx?q=gini&id=271: 2011
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For people of
color, recent years
have brought an
economic
Tsunami.
Source:
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Change in Median Wealth, 2005-2009
Hispanic Households
Black Households
Asian Households
White Households
Down 66%
Down 53%
Down 54%
Down 16%
Source:
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Median Wealth of White Families
20 X
that of African Americans
18 X
that of Latinos
Source:
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Not just wages and wealth,
but mobility as well.
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U.S. intergenerational mobility was increasing
until 1980, but has sharply declined since.
The falling elasticity meant increased economic mobility until 1980.
Since then, the elasticity has risen, and mobility has slowed.
Earnings Elasticity
0.6
0.4
0.58
0.2
0.4
0.46
0.35
0.34
0.33
1960
1970
1980
0
1950
1990
2000
Source: Daniel Aaronson and Bhashkar Mazumder. Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the U.S.,1940 to 2000. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP 2005-12: Dec.
2005.
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Now, instead of being the “land of opportunity,” the
U.S. has one of lowest rates of intergenerational
mobility.
Cross-country examples of the link between father and son wages
Earnings Elasticity
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.47
0.41
0.32
0.27
0.19
0.18
0.17
0.15
Canada
Finland
Norway
Denmark
0
United
Kingdom
United
States
France
Germany
Sweden
Source: Tom Hertz, “Understanding Mobility in America” (Washington, D.C.: Center for American Progress, 2006).
©©2013
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At the macro level, better and
more equal education is not the
only answer.
But at the individual level, it really is.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
College Grads Earn More
Median annual earnings for all
individuals
$100,000
Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006-08)
$79,977
$80,000
$60,000
$73,575
$53,716
$42,783
$40,000
$21,569
$27,361
$32,602
$20,000
$0
High school diploma/GED
Some college
Associate's Bachelor's
degree
degree
Master's degree
Professional degree
Ph.D.
Note: Data include full-time, year-round workers, those working less than full-time year-round, and those who did not work.
Julian and Kominski, “Education and Synthetic Work-Life Earnings Estimates,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2011.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
College Grads Less Likely to be
Unemployed
Unemployment Rate (August 2011)
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
14.3%
9.6%
8.2%
4.3%
5.0%
0.0%
Less than high school High school graduate Some college or Bachelor's degree or
diploma
associate's degree
higher
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table A-4, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04htm
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They also stand out on the
other things we value.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
College graduates more likely to
vote
Voting Behavior by Educational Attainment (November 2008)
100%
77%
80%
83%
68%
55%
60%
40%
39%
20%
0%
Less than high school
High school/GED
Some college/associate'sBachelor's
degree degreeAdvanced degree
Note: Data include both those who are and are not registered to vote.
U.S. Census Bureau, “Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2008,” May 2010
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
College graduates more likely to
volunteer
100%
80%
60%
43%
40%
20%
31%
19%
9%
0%
Less than high
school
High school
Some college or Bachelor's degree or
associate's degree
higher
Note: Data represent percentage of total population that reported volunteering from September 2008 to September 2009
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Volunteering in the United States 2009” (2010)
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College Grads of all races far more likely to
be in “Very Good” or “Excellent” Health
80
73.3
70
59.2
59
56.4
60
50
40
30
29.4
27.3
30.6
15.9
20
10
0
Black
Latino
American Indian
High School Dropout
White
College Graduate
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Commission for a Healthier America, 2009
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Percentage of respondents reporting themselves to be in
excellent mental health
College Grads Even Have Better
Mental Health
100%
80%
60%
60%
54%
45%
40%
37%
20%
0%
High school or less
Some college
Bachelor's degree
Advanced degree
Gallup, “Strong Relationship Between Income and Mental Health” (2007)
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What colleges do, in other words, is
hugely important to our economy,
our democracy, and our society.
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So, how are we doing?
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Over past 30 years, we’ve made
a lot of progress on the access
side.
n/a
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Immediate College-Going Up
Percentage of High School Graduates
Enrolled in College the Fall After
Graduation
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school
NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-1) and The Condition of Education 2011 (Table A-21-1).
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College-going is up for all
groups.
NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-3) and The Condition of Education 2011 (Table A-21-2).
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Immediate College-Going Increasing for All
Racial/Ethnic Groups: 1972 to 2009
Percentage of High School Graduates Enrolled in
College the Fall After Graduation
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
African American
Latino
White
0%
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school
NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-3) and The Condition of Education 2011 (Table A-21-2).
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Percentage of High School Graduates Enrolled in
College the Fall After Graduation
College-Going Generally Increasing
for All Income Groups
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Lower Income
Higher Income
0%
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school
NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-1) and The Condition of Education 2011 (Table A-21-1).
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But though college-going up
for students of color, gains
among whites are often
larger…
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And though college going up
for low-income students…
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
But access isn’t the only
issue:
There’s a question of access to
what…
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1/5 of black and Hispanic students and
2/5 of Pell recipients begin at for-profit colleges
Asian
7
White
9
34
41
35
Black
37
21
Hispanic
40
18
American Indian
Pell recipient
Non-Pell recipient
15
0%
For Profit
20%
25
Public 2-Year
21
Public 4-Year
60%
Ed Trust analysis of IPEDS Fall enrollment, Fall 2010 (by race) and IPEDS Student Financial Aid survey, 2009-10
(by Pell recipient status).
9
20
80%
Private 4-Year
1
9 1
10
39
40%
1
12
29
24
17
27
46
42
1
26
45
12
17
4
2
2
100%
Other
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Access to what?
For-profit college companies
 13% of enrollments
 24% of Pell Grants and
federal student loan dollars
 48% of federal student
loan defaults
Ed Trust analysis of IPEDS, 12-Month Enrollment Survey, 12-month headcount enrollment, 2009-10; Majority
staff calculation of data provided by U.S. Department of Education, 2008-09 in “Emerging Risk?: An Overview
of Growth, Spending, Student Debt and Unanswered Questions in For-Profit Higher Education.” Senate HELP
Committee. 24 June 2010; and Ed Trust analysis of FY 2009 data in “Institutional Default Rate Comparison of FY
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2007, 2008, and 2009 Cohort Default Rates.”
And what about graduation?
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Black and Latino Freshmen Complete College at Lower
Rates Than Other Students
80
6 -year bachelor’s completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen,
Fall 2004 cohort at 4-year institutions
Graduation Rates (%)
70
Overall rate: 58%
60
50
40
30
69%
62%
50%
20
40%
39%
10
0
White
Black
Latino
Asian
NCES (March 2012). First Look: Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2010; Graduation Rates, 2004
and 2007 Cohorts; and Financial Statistics Fiscal Year 2010.
American Indian
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Graduation rates at
public community colleges
100
6 -year completion rates (associate degrees and certificates)
for first-time, full-time freshmen,
Fall 2004 cohort at public two-year institutions
Graduation Rates (%)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Overall rate: 22.5%
20
10
25%
15%
20%
Black
Latino
27%
20%
0
White
Asian
NCES (March 2012). First Look: Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2010; Graduation Rates, 2004
and 2007 Cohorts; and Financial Statistics Fiscal Year 2010.
American
Indian
39
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Chance of
attaining a bachelor’s degree
within six years,
among students who
begin at community college?
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Only 12 percent.
100
Bachelor’s Attainment Rate (%)
90
Percent of students who started at a community college in
2003 and earned a BA degree by 2009
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
12%
0
Persistence and Attainment of 2003–04 Beginning Postsecondary Students: After 6 Years First Look, December
2010.
41
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Add it all up…
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Different groups of young
Americans obtain degrees at very
different rates.
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Bachelor’s attainment rates for whites are twice as high as
blacks and three times as high as Hispanics
Bachelor’s degree attainment of young adults
(25-29 year olds), 2011
2x
39%
3x
20%
13%
White
African American
Latino
NCES, Condition of Education 2010 and U.S. Census Bureau, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2011.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
And gaps between groups have
grown over time.
©
© 2013
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Bachelor’s attainment rates for young people from high
income families are more than 7 times those from lowincome families
Bachelor’s Degree attainment by Age 24
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
7x
79%
20%
10%
10.66%
0%
2010
Lowest Income Quartile
Highest Income Quartile
Postsecondary Education Opportunity, “Bachelor’s Degree Attainment by Age 24 by Family Income Quartiles, 1970 to 2010.”
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
These rates threaten health of
our democracy.
But even for those who don’t care much
about that, they are particularly
worrisome, given which groups are
growing…and which aren’t.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Changing demographics demand greater focus
on underrepresented populations.
Population Increase, Ages 0-24,
(in thousands)
Percentage Increase, Ages 0-24,
31,337
137%
White
Black
96%
Latino
50%
2,312
Asian
4,431
15%
669
-9%
American
Indian
-5,516
Note: Projected Population Growth, Ages 0-24, 2010-2050
Source: National Population Projections, U.S. Census Bureau. Released 2008; NCHEMS ,Adding It Up, 2007
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Not surprisingly, our international
lead is slipping away
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
We’re relatively strong in educational attainment
Percentage of residents aged 25-64 with a postsecondary degree
100%
80%
60%
United States
OECD Average
40%
20%
0%
Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are
skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years,
are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2011 (2011)
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Our world standing drops to 15th for younger adults
Percentage of residents aged 25-34 with a postsecondary degree
100%
80%
United States
OECD Average
60%
40%
20%
0%
Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are
skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years,
are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2011 (2011)
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We’re near the bottom in intergenerational progress
Difference in percentage of residents aged 45-54 and those aged 25-34
with a postsecondary degree
100%
80%
60%
40%
OECD Average
United States
20%
0%
Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are
skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years,
are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2011 (2011)
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WHAT’S GOING ON?
Many in higher education would like to
believe that these patterns are mostly a
function of lousy high schools and stingy
federal and state policymakers.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
They are not all wrong.
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© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Low Income and Minority Students
Continue to be Clustered in Schools
where we spend less…
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National Inequities in State and Local Revenue
Per Student
High Poverty vs.
Low Poverty Districts
High Minority vs.
Low Minority Districts
Gap
–$773
per student
–$1,122
per student
Source: Education Trust analyses based on U.S. Dept of Education and U.S. Census Bureau data for 2005-06
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
…expect less
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Students in Poor Schools Receive ‘A’s for Work
That Would Earn ‘Cs’ in Affluent Schools
Seventh Grade Math
100
90
87
Percentile – CTBS4
80
70
56
60
50
Low-poverty schools
41
35
40
High-poverty schools
34
30
22
21
20
11
10
0
A
B
C
Source: Prospects (ABT Associates, 1993), in “Prospects: Final Report on Student
Outcomes”, PES, DOE, 1997
D
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
…teach them less
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Percentage of students who were in the top two
quintiles of math performance in fifth grade and in
algebra in eighth grade
Even African-American students with high math
performance in fifth grade are unlikely to be placed in
algebra in eighth grade
100%
94%
80%
68%
63%
60%
40%
35%
20%
0%
African American
Latino
White
Asian
Source: NCES, “Eighth-Grade Algebra: Findings from the Eighth-Grade Round of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99
(ECLS-K)” (2010).
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Percent of schools offering Physics
Students of color are less likely to attend
high schools that offer physics.
100
80
66
60
40
40
20
0
High schools with the highest
African-American and Latino
enrollment
High schools with the lowest
African-American and Latino
enrollment
Source:
• Source:
U.S. Department of Education Office of Civil Rights, Civil
Rights Data Collection, March 2012
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Students of color are less likely to attend
high schools that offer calculus.
Percent of Schools Offering Calculus
Schools with the Fewest Black and
Latino Students
55%
Schools with the Most Black and
Latino Students
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Source: U.S. Department of Education Office for Civil Rights , Civil Rights Data Collection
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
…and assign them our least qualified
teachers.
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Core classes in high-poverty and high-minority secondary
schools are more likely to be taught by out-of-field teachers
Percentage of Classes Taught by Teachers
With Neither Certification nor Major
50%
45%
41%
40%
35%
30%
30%
25%
20%
17%
16%
15%
10%
5%
0%
High
Poverty
Low
Poverty
High
Minority
Low
Minority
Note: Data are for secondary-level core academic classes (Math, Science, Social Studies, English) across United States.
High-poverty ≥75% of students eligible for free/reduced-price lunch. Low-poverty school ≤15% of students eligible.
High-minority ≥ 75% students non-white. Low-minority ≤ 10% students non-white.
Source: The Education Trust, Core Problems: Out-of-Field Teaching Persists in Key Academic Courses and High-Poverty Schools, (2008)
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Students at high-minority schools are more
likely to be taught by novice teachers
Percentage of Novice Teachers
50%
40%
30%
22%
20%
13%
10%
0%
Low Minority
High Minority
Note: Novice teachers are those with three years or fewer experience.
High-minority ≥ 75% students non-white. Low-minority ≤ 10% students non-white.
Source: Analysis of 2003-2004 Schools and Staffing Survey data by Richard Ingersoll, University of Pennsylvania (2007)
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Tennessee: High-poverty/high-minority schools have fewer
of the “most effective” teachers and more “least effective”
teachers.
23.8%
25
Percent of Teachers
21.3%
20
17.6%
16%
15
Most Effective
Teachers
10
Least Effective
Teachers
5
0
High-poverty/highminority schools
Low-poverty/low-minority
schools
Note: High poverty/high minority means at least 75 percent of students qualify for FRPL and at least 75 percent are minority.
Source: Tennessee Department of Education 2007. “Tennessee’s Most Effective Teachers: Are they assigned to the schools that need them most?”
http://tennessee.gov/education/nclb/doc/TeacherEffectiveness2007_03.pdf.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Los Angeles: LOW-INCOME STUDENTS LESS LIKELY
TO HAVE HIGH VALUE-ADDED TEACHERS
ELA
A low-income
student is
more than
twice as likely
to have a low
value-added
teacher for
ELA
MATH
A student from a relatively
more affluent background is
62% more likely to get a high
value-added ELA teacher.
In math, a student from a
relatively more affluent
background is 39% more
likely to get a high valueadded math teacher.
A lowincome
student is
66% more
likely to
have a low
valueadded
teacher.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
4th Grade Reading:
Record Performance with Gap Narrowing
9 Year Olds – NAEP Reading
250
240
Average Scale Score
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
African American
160
Latino
White
150
1971* 1975* 1980* 1984* 1988* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* 2004
2008
*Denotes previous assessment format
Source: NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
4th Grade Math:
Record Performance with Gap Narrowing
9 Year Olds – NAEP Math
250
240
Average Scale Score
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
African American
160
Latino
White
150
1973* 1978* 1982* 1986* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999*
2004
2008
*Denotes previous assessment format
Source: NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
12th Grade Reading: No Progress, Gaps
Wider than 1988
17 Year Olds – NAEP Reading
320
310
Average Scale Score
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
African American
230
Latino
White
220
1971* 1975* 1980* 1984* 1988* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* 2004
2008
*Denotes previous assessment format
Source: NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
12 Grade Math: Results Mostly Flat
Gaps Same or Widening
17 Year Olds – NAEP Math
340
330
Average Scale Score
320
310
300
290
280
270
260
African American
250
Latino
White
240
1973* 1978* 1982* 1986* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999*
2004
2008
*Denotes previous assessment format
Source: NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
So, too, are misguided government aid policies
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
College costs have increased at 4.5 times
the rate of inflation
600%
Percent Growth Rate
Current Dollars, 1982-2007
500%
400%
300%
538%
200%
288%
100%
146%
118%
Median Family
Income
Consumer Price
Index
0%
College Tuition
and Fees
Medical
Care
The Education Trust, Lifting the Fog on Inequitable Financial Aid Policies, 2011.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Federal Pell Grants have failed to
keep pace with rising college costs
100%
99%
Total Cost of Attendance Covered by
Maximum Pell Grant Award
77%
80%
62%
60%
40%
36%
36%
20%
15%
0%
Public 2-Year
Public 4-Year
1979-80
Private 4-Year
2010-11
Source: American Council on Education (2007). “ Status Report on the Pell Grant Program, 2007” and CRS, Federal Pell
Grant Program of the Higher Education Act: Background, Recent Changes, and Current Legislative Issues, 2011.
78
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Why? Not because we’re not
spending a lot more on student
aid.
But, rather, because we’ve changed
who gets those dollars.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
61% of savings from tuition tax credits go to
middle- and upper-income families
Distribution of Tax Credit Savings
by Adjusted Gross Income
39%
61%
Low-income
($0-49,999)
Middle and upper-income
($50,000+)
Source: Trends in Student Aid 2010, The College Board
80
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
91% of savings from tuition tax deductions
go to middle- and upper-income families
Distribution of Tax Deduction Savings
by Adjusted Gross Income
8%
Low-income
($0-49,999)
91%
Middle and upper-income
($50,000+)
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.
Source: Trends in Student Aid 2010, The College Board
81
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Pattern is the same at state level, even in
tough times.
Source: Trends in Student Aid 2010, The College Board
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Change in Distribution of State Grants
Based on Need
2008-09
1998-99
18.5%
27.9%
81.5%
Source: NASSGAP Report 2008-09: Undergraduate Grant Aid in Constant 2008-09 Dollars:
1998-99 through 2008-09 (in millions of dollars).
Need-Based
72.1%
Non-Need-Based
83
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Big Effects, too, from State Disinvestment in Public Higher
Education.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
We start out by spending less per
student in the institutions
serving students with the biggest
needs. Then, over the past few
years, we just cut mercilessly
from there.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
So yes, government policy is part
of the problem, too.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
But
colleges and universities are not
unimportant actors in this drama of
shrinking opportunity, either.
87
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For one thing, the shifts away from
poor students in institutional aid
money are MORE PRONOUNCED
than the shifts in government aid.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
In 2007, four-year public and
private nonprofit colleges
spent nearly $15 billion on grant
aid.
Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:08 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
But, they spent a lot of aid on students
who didn’t need it.
Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:08 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Public 4-year colleges used to spend more than twice as much on needy
students, but now spend about the same as on wealthy students
Institutional Grant Aid at Public 4-Year Institutions,
1995-2007 (in millions)
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$744
$695
$300
$200
$437
$100
$179
$0
1995
Lowest income quintile
2007
Highest income quintile
Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:96 and NPSAS:08 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
The result? Low-income students must devote
an amount equivalent to 72% of their family
income towards college costs
Family Income
Average
Income
Cost of
Attendance
Expected
Family
Contribution
(EFC)
Average
Grant Aid
Unmet Need
After EFC and
Grant Aid
% of Income
Required to Pay
for College After
Grant Aid
$0-30,200
$17,011
$22,007
$951
$9,704
$11,352
72%
$30,201-54,000
$42,661
$23,229
$4,043
$7,694
$11,493
36%
$54,001-80,400
$67,844
$23,640
$10,224
$5,352
$8,064
27%
$80,401-115,400
$97,594
$25,050
$18,158
$4,554
$2,339
21%
$115,401+
$173,474
$27,689
$37,821
$3,822
$-13,953
14%
Source: Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:08 using PowerStats, http://nces.ed.gov/datalab/. Results based on full-time,
full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates
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So it’s not all about the students or
about government. What colleges
do is important in who comes…and
who doesn’t.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Moreover, what colleges do also
turns out to be very important in
whether students graduate or not.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Current College Completion Rates:
4-Year Colleges
 Fewer than 4 in 10 (38%) entering freshmen obtain a
bachelor’s degree within 4 years
 Within six years of entry, that proportion rises to just
under 6 in 10 (58%)
 If you go beyond IPEDS, and look at graduation from
ANY institution, number grows to about two-thirds.
NCES (March 2012). First Look: Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2009; Graduation Rates, 2003
and 2006 Cohorts; and Financial Statistics Fiscal Year 2009. Ed Trust analysis of BPS:09.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
But graduation rates vary widely across the
nation’s postsecondary institutions
250
Distribution of six-year graduation rates for first-time, full-time
freshmen at four-year institutions
Number of Institutions
200
150
100
102
50
53
0
190
181
77
115
139
151
152
168
147 135
89
70
84
51
14
54
38
30
Graduation Rate
Ed Trust analysis of College Results Online dataset 2010.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Some of these differences are
clearly attributable to differences in
student preparation and/or
institutional mission.
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Indeed, with enough data on
both institutions and students,
we can find a way to “explain”
more than 70% of the variance
among institutions.
Ed Trust analysis of College Results Online dataset 2010.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
But…when you dig underneath
the averages, one thing is very
clear:
Some colleges are far more
successful than their students’
“stats” would suggest.
Ed Trust analysis of College Results Online dataset 2009.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Research Institutions
Similar Students, Different Results
Median
SAT
Size
% Pell
% URM
Overall URM Grad
Grad Rate
Rate
Penn State
University
1,200 35,702
15.0%
7.4%
84.0%
69.9%
Indiana
University
1,120 28,768
16.0%
6.9%
71.9%
53.5%
Purdue
University
1,135 31,008
17.7%
6.8%
69.1%
52.3%
University of
Minnesota
1,165 28,654
19.9%
7.5%
63.4%
43.8%
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© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Research Institutions
Similar Students, Different Results
Median
SAT
Size
% Pell
% URM
Overall URM Grad
Grad Rate
Rate
Florida State
University
1,160 28,874
26%
23%
68.7%
69.9%
University of
Arizona
1,110 25,867
23%
26%
56%
44%
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Masters Institutions – Large
Similar Students, Different Results
Median
SAT
Size
% Pell
Overall
Graduation
Rate
University of Northern
Iowa
Montclair State
1,085
9,946
23.8%
65.2%
1,015
10,908
26.5%
61.2%
Eastern
Illinois
University of
Wisconsin Whitewater
1,010
9,798
23.7%
60.3%
1,030
8,690
20.3%
53.1%
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Historically Black Colleges
Similar Students, Different Results
Median
SAT
Size
% Pell
Overall
Graduation
Rate
Elizabeth City
845
2,423
69.9%
50.7%
Delaware State
835
3,057
47.8%
37.3%
University of
Arkansas
Pine Bluff
Norfolk State
775
2,768
73.5%
32.9%
900
4,798
54.5%
30.8%
Coppin State
N/A
2,800
72.6%
18.9%
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There are big differences among
2-year colleges, as well.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Valencia College (FL)
Graduation rates far exceed national averages at Valencia,
winner of the inaugural Aspen Prize for Community College Excellence
3-year completion rates (associate degrees and certificates)
for first-time, full-time freshmen,
Fall 2007 cohort
40.0%
38.8%
28.9%
22.5%
20.0%
14.7%
Overall
Source: IPEDS, 2010
Black
Valencia
Latino
National Average
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Rio Salado College
Rio Salado College, a mostly online community college, has overall
and Latino graduation rates above national averages.
3-year completion rates (*only certificates awarded)
for first-time, full-time freshmen,
Fall 2007 cohort
41.9%
33.3%
22.5%
20.0%
14.3%
Overall
Source: IPEDS, 2010
14.7%
Black
Rio Salado
Latino
National Average
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Some making fast progress in
improving success for students of
color, some have closed gaps
entirely.
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Biggest Gainers in Success for Latino
Students: Public Colleges and Universities
Source: Advancing to Completion, 2012, The Education Trust.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Biggest Gainers in Success for Black
Students: Public Colleges and Universities
Source: Advancing to Completion, 2012, The Education Trust.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Universities with No Black/White
Graduation Rate Gaps
Source: Advancing to Completion, 2012, The Education Trust.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Bottom Line:
 So yes, we have to keep working to improve
our high schools;
 And yes, government has to do its part;
 But we’ve got to focus on changing what our
colleges do, too.
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What can we learn
from the high
performers?
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
1. Their leaders make sure
student success is a campuswide priority.
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Improving student success isn’t
all—or even mostly—about
programs.
It’s about institutional culture that
values success and that accepts
responsibility.
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Successful leaders honor and tap
into institutional culture to
privilege student success
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
The Education Trust, Access to Success database.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
How did President Steve Weber
do it?
He didn’t. The campus community
did. But HE made it about
excellence. And HE approached the
faculty as problem-solvers.
The Education Trust, interview with President Weber.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
In fact, successful leaders
consistently treat faculty as
problem solvers, not as problems
to be solved.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
2. They look at their data…and
act.
Use of disaggregated data to spot
problems and frame action is
pervasive.
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Successful institutions don’t just
aim at the final goal—
graduation—they concentrate on
each step along the way,
especially the early ones.
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Looking at data on the access
side
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Community College: Improving Access for
Latinos?
7
5.9
6
4.8
5
4
3
3.4
3.2
4.5
3.5
Freshmen
HS Grads
2.4
2
2
1
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source:
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Watching progress during first
few weeks, months
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Historically Black Colleges
Similar Students, Different Results
Median
SAT
Size
% Pell
Overall
Graduation
Rate
Elizabeth City
825
2983
75%
42%
Delaware State
875
2953
58%
39%
Prairie View
A&M
820
68%
32%
University of
Arkansas,
Pine Bluff
775
77%
24%
6259
3426
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Elizabeth City State
 Attendance mandatory. Faculty members
monitor; call when absent.
 Faculty advisors track absences, mid-term
grades. Expected to meet with students in
trouble.
 Deans, Provost monitor the data—and ACT
when involves one faculty member.
 Everybody on campus assumes responsibility
for acting on warning signs.
???
125
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Rio Salado College
Rio Salado College, a mostly online community college, has overall
and Latino graduation rates above national averages.
3-year completion rates (*only certificates awarded)
for first-time, full-time freshmen,
Fall 2007 cohort
41.9%
33.3%
22.5%
20.0%
14.3%
Overall
Source: IPEDS, 2010
14.7%
Black
Rio Salado
Latino
National Average
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
How Rio Salado Uses Data
 Regularly review, measure, and improve processes,
practices, and services to increase student success
 Use predictive analytics to discover drivers of success,
including student engagement and behavioral patterns
(logins, site engagement, and pace of coursework) in
online and classroom-based learning
 Employ data-based systems to track and flag students to
trigger outreach interventions, including an electronic
system that allows students to monitor their own
progress
Source: http://www.hcmstrategists.com/content/Beating_the_Odds.pdf
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Keeping your eyes on both
retention and credit
accumulation
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Top Gainer and Gap Closer:
Georgia State University




Downtown Atlanta with about 19,000 undergrads
1/3 minority, mostly African American
Minority students now graduate at higher rates than peers
Enrollment has grown more diverse in recent years
Minority Six Year Grad Rates
Non-minority- Minority Graduation Rate Gap
2002
2007
32.3%
50.7%
5.2
-5.2%
The Education Trust, Top Gainers, 2010.
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Keys to Georgia State’s Success:
Focusing first and foremost on the data
 Identify potholes on pathway to bachelor’s degree:
 Low credit accumulation in first year
 High introductory course failure rates
 Drop off in retention during transition to majors
 Evaluate effectiveness of intervention strategies
 Develop and monitor department retention plans
Disaggregated all data by race, income, and
first-generation status
The Education Trust, Top Gainers, 2010.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
First-Year Retention vs. Credit Accumulation
The
Silent
Retention
Problem
100%
90%
80%
80%
82%
81%
83%
80%
81%
82%
83%
83%
67%
70%
62%
60%
49%
50%
40%
30%
22%
27%
28%
33%
35%
39%
20%
10%
0%
Fall ’00 Fall ’01 Fall ’02 Fall ’03 Fall ’04 Fall ’05 Fall ’06
Georgia State University.
% Retained
Fall ’07 Fall ‘08
% Retained and Sophomore
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
PS. Don’t just LOOK at your data.
The ACT part is really important.
Just having data doesn’t accomplish
anything. Completion is about
creating accountability for acting on
those data.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Connect with campus change agents
FSU formed a cross-campus retention team
that met weekly “to go over, not the data, but
the students within the data.”
Larry Abele, former Provost at Florida State University
133
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Florida State University’s Cross-Campus Success Team
Chief Academic Officer convenes the group and participates
Supported by Institutional Research
Core Services:
admissions, registration,
financial aid, career services,
housing, health center, and
withdrawal services
Support Programs:
orientation, advising and
coaching, tutoring and study
skills courses, and special
programs for underserved
populations
Cross-Campus Success
Team:
A group of
approximately 20
professionals from
these areas convenes
weekly to talk about
data and the students
within the data. The
group makes detailed
action plans with
specific tasks,
responsible parties,
and concrete
deadlines
Academic Programs:
undergraduate studies, honors
program, undergraduate
research, library services, and
fellowships
Student Representation:
Student government
representative. It is important
to have this group because it
helps student buy-in and can
bring in additional funds for
programs
©
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© 2013
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Understand student pathways
93
FSU developed a series of
action steps
tied to every month of the academic calendar.
135
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FSU’s Retention “Action Steps”
Month
Timeframe
Action
Responsibility
January
By end of
January
Emails to students with 75 attempted hours
who have not been accepted into a major
Individual Responsible
January
Ongoing
Update department Degree Audit reports
Individual Responsible
January
Ongoing
Individual contact with students who have
been placed on probation
Academic Section
January
Ongoing
Individual contact with students who have
been placed on warning
Academic Section
February
1st week
Offer Workshop: Students Taking Exploratory Advising First
Paths to Success
February
1st week in
the month
Email to all F coded students w/100+ hours
inquiring about graduation plans; email to all
H coded students w/100+ hours inquiring
about finishing/graduation plans
Individual Responsible
February
6th week of
term
New transfer—How are you doing—
deadlines
Individual Responsible
Source: Florida State University
136
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3. Where can the data take you?
Successful institutions create
clear pathways to success.
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
FLORIDA STATE
ACADEMIC MAP
138
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Valencia College (FL)
Graduation rates far exceed national averages at Valencia,
winner of the inaugural Aspen Prize for Community College Excellence
3-year completion rates (associate degrees and certificates)
for first-time, full-time freshmen,
Fall 2007 cohort
40.0%
38.8%
28.9%
22.5%
20.0%
14.7%
Overall
Source: IPEDS, 2010
Black
Valencia
Latino
National Average
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Leaders at Valencia removed institutional
impediments to student success by:
 Transforming the course catalogue from an
“advertisement” into a “road map” for successful course
sequences
 Assigning adjuncts to courses a year in advance to create
predictable schedules for students
 Ending late enrollment into regular courses, but offering
flex start sections a month into the semester
Source: http://www.aspeninstitute.org/policy-work/aspen-prize/valenciacollege
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Connecting support through the classroom
Developmental courses at Valencia College
are linked with a Student Success course, in
which students create a personal education
plan and learn key study skills.
Source: http://www.aspeninstitute.org/policy-work/aspen-prize/valenciacollege
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Other Examples of Clear Pathways
• Tennessee Technical Colleges: Block
schedules, little choice, strong results.
Now being expanded to Community
Colleges, with very promising early results.
Source:
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
4. They take on Introductory and
Developmental Classes
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Course redesign in Tennessee
With more than 40% of freshmen at four-year
schools and nearly 80% of freshmen at twoyear colleges in remediation, the Tennessee
Board of Regents were early adopters of the
NCAT (National Center for Academic
Transformation) course redesign model
Short, Paula and Treva Berryman (2012). ‘A System Approach to Learning Support Redesign in Tennessee.’
Presentation at the U.S. Education Delivery Institute network meeting, January 2012.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
SMART Math at Jackson State Community College
Students eligible to enroll in
college-level courses next term
36%
24%
22%
Students receiving passing grade
54%
42%
57%
59%
41%
Traditional Redesign Redesign Redesign
Spring 08 Spring 08 Fall 08 Spring 09
Short, Paula and Treva Berryman (2012). ‘A System Approach to Learning Support Redesign in Tennessee.’
Presentation at the U.S. Education Delivery Institute network meeting, January 2012.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Math redesign at Cleveland State
Community College
Before course redesign
• Section size = 24
• 55 sections (Fall/Spring)
After course redesign
• Section size = 18
• 77 sections (Fall/Spring)
– 45 by FT faculty
– 10 by adjuncts
•
•
•
•
Faculty load = 10 sections
Faculty cost = $256,275
Adjunct cost = $14,400
Total cost = $270,625
– 77 by FT faculty
– 0 by adjuncts
•
•
•
•
Faculty load = 20 sections
Faculty cost = $219,258
Adjunct cost = $0
Total cost = $219,258
Savings = $51,418 or 19%
Short, Paula and Treva Berryman (2012). ‘A System Approach to Learning Support Redesign in Tennessee.’
Presentation at the U.S. Education Delivery Institute network meeting, January 2012.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Math redesign at Cleveland State
Community College
Pass rates for Elementary
Algebra
Pass rates for Intermediate
Algebra
74%
68%
57%
50%
Before Redesign
After Redesign
Before Redesign
Engle, Jennifer, Joseph Yeado, Rima Brusi and Jose Cruz (2012). Replenishing Opportunity in America: The 2012
Midterm Report of Public Higher Education Systems in the Access to Success Network. Washington, DC:
Education Trust, 2012.
After Redesign
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Other Promising Approaches
• Instead of placing students with weaker
skills in separate Developmental
courses, place into regular courses that:
– Have built in supports on the side; or,
– Meet 5 days/week.
Source:
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5. Where else can the data take
you? Successful institutions
don’t hesitate to demand,
require.
n/a
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
A lot of institutions know what
works. And more and more of
them are advising students to do
those things.
But it turns out that “students don’t
do optional.”
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
San Diego State University
and
University of Houston
 Similar Institutions
 Similar enrollment percentages of Latinos
 Similar SAT
151
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
Different Results Over Time
University of
Houston
San Diego
State
2002 Latino
Graduation Rate
2006 Latino
Graduation Rate
34.8%
41.1%
31.4%
54%
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© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
What do the folks at SDSU think
made the difference?
1. Making services, supports
more coherent.
2. Making what was optional,
mandatory.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
6. They bring back the ones they
lose.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
University of New Mexico
Median SAT: 1010
% Pell: 31.4%
White: 49.8%
African American: 2.8%
Latino: 33.6%
American Indian: 6.6%
Overall 6 year grad rate: 41.6%
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The Graduation Project
 Founder: David Stuart, Assoc Provost
 Insight: A lot of the students who leave
without a degree leave pretty close—and in
good standing.
 Core idea of project: Track them down and
invite them back.
 Criteria: 2.0 gpa or better, at least 98 credits
 Universe: 3000
156
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• Used credit company to track them down
• Offer:
– shortened (and free) application for re-admission,
– degree summary showing exactly which courses
short,
– priority enrollment in those courses, and
– help with problems along the way.
– Result: Of those 3000, 1800 now have degrees
and 59 have graduate degrees.
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For Community College Version,
See “Project Win-Win” at IHEP.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
In other words, what institutions do to help
their students succeed matters. A lot.
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST
It’s really not about boldness of reform.
It’s about intentionality and quality of execution.
© 2011 The Education
Trust
© 2013 THE EDUCATION
TRUST
Download this presentation on our
website
www.edtrust.org
Washington, D.C.
202/293-1217
Metro Detroit, MI
734/619-8009
Oakland, CA
510/465-6444
© 2013 THE EDUCATION TRUST