2008 Presidential
Election:
Mapping Area
2008 Presidential
Election:
Mapping Voters
Presidential Preference and Position
on the Electoral College
Politics 262
November 2004
Actual & (Expected) Values
Pro-EC
Anti-EC
Pro Bush
7
(2.67)
1
(5.33)
8
Pro Kerry
0
(4.33)
13
(8.67)
13
7
14
21
Chi-square = 17.06. Probability that Presidential Preference and
Position on Electoral College are unrelated is less than 0.001%.
Hypotheses?
Hypotheses?
• Leaving the Electoral College alone is the
“conservative” thing to do.
• The Electoral College is justified by its
results, and it gave us President Bush.
Electoral College Outline
• Why Do We Have It?
• How Does It Work?
• What Are the Systemic Biases?
• Are There No Redeeming Features?
• Are There Better Alternatives?
• Why Do We Still Have It?
System Bias
• The organization of politics has consequences.
• The rules, and institutions, and procedures by which we
organize our collective life as a nation are never neutral.
• Rather these rules, and institutions, and procedures allocate
advantages and disadvantages to individuals and
groups.
• The concept of system bias encourages us to explore who
is advantaged and disadvantaged and whether those
advantages and disadvantages are consistent with our
values or with democratic theory or with the values of
American political culture.
Electoral College Outline
• An Experiment with Cornell Students
• Why Do We Have It?
• How Does It Work?
• What Are the Systemic Biases?
• Are There No Redeeming Features?
• Are There Better Alternatives?
• Why Do We Still Have It?
Electoral College Biases
• Small States have a mathematical overrepresentation because they get at least three
electoral votes regardless of how few people live
there.
• Low-Turnout States get protected in terms of
influence because the electoral college makes
voter turnout irrelevant.
• Competitive States (especially large states)
become the key battlegrounds and gain
disproportionate influence as both sides pour in
massive resources.
House of Representatives
• The system of representation in the
contingency procedure is a huge departure
from the currently accepted principle of
one-person-one vote.
• One vote per state!
• Wyoming = California
Alternative Systems
• District Plan – WTA in 538 individual
constituencies (Maine/Nebraska system)
• Proportional Plan – abolish WTA and divide the
electoral vote fractionally
• National Bonus Plan – add 102 electoral votes to
the winner of the nationwide plurality
• Direct Election – whoever gets the most popular
votes wins
• Direct Election with a Runoff – majority
required to win
System Bias of Alternatives
• District Plan – WTA in 538
individual constituencies
(Maine/Nebraska system)
• Proportional Plan – abolish
WTA and divide the electoral
vote fractionally
• National Bonus Plan – add
102 electoral votes to the
winner of the nationwide
plurality
• Direct Election – whoever gets
the most popular votes wins
• Direct Election with a Runoff
– majority required to win
• Small States have a
mathematical overrepresentation because they get
at least three electoral votes
regardless of how few people
live there.
• Low-Turnout States get
protected in terms of influence
because the electoral college
makes voter turnout irrelevant.
• Competitive States (especially
large states) become the key
battlegrounds and gain
disproportionate influence as
both sides pour in massive
resources.
Take Home Lesson
Source: http://theelectoralcollegesucks.com/
Mr. Maps
Mark Newman, Department of Physics and
Center for the Study of Complex Systems,
University of Michigan
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/