AREP
GAW
Section 3
Introduction and Overview
of Course
AREP
GAW
Introduction – Forecasting Programs
The process of developing, operating, and
improving an air quality (AQ) forecasting program
Data
Collection
Develop
a Program
Operate
the Program
Need for an
AQ Forecast
Revise
the Program
Forecast
Preparation
Forecast
Communication
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
2
AREP
GAW
Overview of Course
Course Content:
1. Acknowledgments
2. Executive Overview
3. Introduction and Overview of Course
4. What Are We Forecasting?
5. How Are Forecasts Used?
6. Health Effects
7. Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution
8. Pollutant Monitoring
9. Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends
10. Air Pollution Meteorology
11. Case Studies of Episodes
12. Air Quality Forecasting Tools
13. Developing a Forecasting Program
14. Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations
15. References
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
3
AREP
GAW
Audience for Course
• Decision makers
– Overview of air quality forecasting
– General steps to develop/improve an air quality
forecasting program
• Meteorologists and forecasters
– Overview of air quality emissions and chemistry
– Discussion of how weather affects air quality
– Discussion of tools used to forecast air quality
• Air quality scientists
– Discussion of how weather affects air quality
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
4
AREP
GAW
Structure of Course – Objectives
This course offers the necessary knowledge to
develop, implement, and evaluate a forecasting
program.
• Understand the meteorological processes that affect pollution
concentrations
• Learn more about meteorological and air quality forecasting
products
• Learn how to use and evaluate meteorological forecast data
(case studies)
• Discuss the tools available for air quality forecasting
• Discuss how to develop, operate, and maintain a forecasting
program
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Structure of Course – Design Goals
• Focus. Forecasting air quality—particulate matter
(PM), ozone, other pollutants.
• Similarity. Air quality is strongly influenced by
weather conditions and emissions sources. Weather
conditions and emission types are generally similar,
but have minor differences among countries.
• Practical. Beyond theory, the course contains
practical advice and references to examples, tools,
and methods.
• Gateway. The course workbook is a gateway to
additional resources.
• Evolve. The course will improve in time through
participants’ feedback.
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Introduction (1 of 3)
Forecasting Philosophy
• Understand how the system operates
– Determine how meteorological processes influence air
pollution in an area
– Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the
air quality
• Obtain better results by using multiple forecasting
tools
– No “silver bullet”
– Several tools provide a consensus forecast
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Introduction (2 of 3)
Predicting weather (and air quality) requires examining
information for several different spatial and time scales.
Global
Space: 4,000 km – 20,000 km
Time: 1 - 2 weeks
Global
Synoptic
Space: 400 km – 4,000 km
Time: 1 day – 1 week
Synoptic
Mesoscale
Space: 10 km – 400 km
Time: 1 hr – 1 day
Urban
Space: 5 km - 50 km
Time: 1 hr - 4 hr
Neighborhood
Space: 500 m - 5 km
Time: 1 min – 1 hr
Mesoscale
Urban
Neighborhood
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Introduction (3 of 3)
Forecasting Process
Predict weather
Predict
weather’s effect
on emissions
and chemistry
Estimate AQ
concentration
Convert to
Air Index for
the public
Ozone
Clouds=
reduced
sunlight
Slows
photochemistry
O3 = low
Good AQI
Inversion traps
wood-burning
emissions
PM2.5 = High
Unhealthy API
PM
Cold
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Exercise
Tell us about your experience and expectations
for the course:
–
–
–
–
–
Name
Agency or organization
Your position (job title)
Experience in forecasting air quality
Expectations for the course
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
10
AREP
GAW
Day-by-Day Guide
•
Day 1 (Monday) - Morning
– 1. Acknowledgements
– 2. Executive Overview
– 3. Introduction and Overview of Course
– 4. What are we forecasting
• 4. Exercise: Survey of audience
– Break (1045-1100)
– 5. How are forecasts used?
– 6. Health Effects
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Day-by-Day Guide
•
Day 1 (Monday) - Afternoon
– 7. Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution
• Exercise: Make ozone in a bottle
• Exercise: Unit conversion (ppb to µg/m3)
– Break (1530-1545)
– 8. Pollutant Monitoring
• Exercise – Identify urban/rural sites from timeseries plots more
– Lunch 1230-1400
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Day-by-Day Guide
•
Day 2 (Tuesday) – Morning
– 9. Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends
• Exercise: Examine time series
• Exercise: IER model of ozone smog
–
–
–
–
10. Air Pollution Meteorology
Break 1030-1045
10. Air Pollution Meteorology (continued)
Lunch 1230-1400
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Day-by-Day Guide
•
Day 2 (Tuesday) – Afternoon
• Exercise
»
»
»
»
Interpreting Radiosondes
Mixing height calculator
Using HYSPLIT
Flowchart
– Map Discussion
– Break (1545-1600)
– 11. Case Study Episodes
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Day-by-Day Guide
• Day 3 (Wednesday) – Morning
– 11. Case Study Episodes (as needed)
– 12. Air Quality Forecasting Tools
– Break (1045-1100)
– 12. Air Quality Forecasting Tools (continued)
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Day-by-Day Guide
• Day 4 (Thursday)
– 12a. Madrid Forecast Model
– Break (1030-1045)
– 12a. Madrid Forecast Model
– Lunch (1230-1400)
– 12b. Background and setup of TAPM
– Questions about forecasting tools/methods
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Day-by-Day Guide
• Day 5 (Friday)
– 13. Developing a Forecasting Program
– Break (1030-1045)
• Exercise: Forecast verification.
–
–
–
–
–
–
14. Daily Weather Forecast Operations
Review of TAPM results
Lunch (1230-1400)
Review of TAPM results (continued)
Analysis of participants data
Questions and individual training
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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AREP
GAW
Summary
• Define the audience (decision makers, meteorologists,
forecasters, and air quality scientists)
• Obtain better results by using multiple forecasting
tools
• Understand how the system operates
• Examine spatial and time scales (global, synoptic,
mesoscale, urban, and neighborhood)
• Develop a forecasting process
– Predict weather and its effect on emissions and
chemistry
– Estimate concentration and convert to an Air Index
Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course
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