“Most people can see trends, not everyone can see opportunity.”
A Candid Talk About
Heikin-Ashi
Milan
September 26, 2015
Dan Valcu, CFTe
Educofin Market Consultants
www.educofin.com
Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not an offer
to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to
participate in any particular trading strategy. The information presented in this
presentation is for general information purposes only. Although every attempt has
been made to assure accuracy, I/we assume no responsibility for errors or omissions.
Examples are provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as
investment advice or strategy.
The author of this presentation disclaims any responsibility for losses incurred for
market positions taken by traders in their individual cases, or for any misunderstanding
on the part of any users in the audience. The authors of this presentation shall not be
liable for any indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages, and in no event
will the authors of this presentation be held liable for any of the products or services
offered through this presentation or links to websites. The past performance of any
trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
By viewing this presentation or using its information, you are deemed to have read,
understood and accepted this disclaimer.
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
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1
“The real problem of humanity is the following:
We have Paleolithic emotions,
Medieval institutions and
God-like technology.
And it is terrifically dangerous, and it is now approaching a point of crisis overall.”
(biologist E.O. Wilson)
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2
What is the
most important
value of a
Heikin-Ashi
candle?
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3
The Superiority Of Heikin-Ashi
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4
The Superiority Of Heikin-Ashi
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5
The Superiority Of Heikin-Ashi
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6
The Superiority Of Heikin-Ashi
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7
The Superiority Of Heikin-Ashi
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8
The Superiority Of Heikin-Ashi
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9
The Superiority Of Heikin-Ashi
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10
The Superiority Of Heikin-Ashi
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11
The Superiority Of Heikin-Ashi
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12
What Lies Ahead
Heikin-Ashi information and How-To ideas
Interaction
Foundation for other trading ideas
Great ideas are not new ideas.
They are usually a combination of existing ideas.
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13
Q: What is the ‘recommended’ Risk/Reward ratio?
Q: Then, why (almost) no active investors and traders grow their capital
accordingly?
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14
Crashing The Ferrari
1. “I love indicators! Indicators, Indicators, Indicators.” (Sexy, marketing, dopamine,
impressing wife, friends, even girlfriend)
Entry
2. “Ooops! Lost money… Maybe some risk and capital management will work.”
Exit
Risk
Position sizing
3. “Ooops! Lost money again… I don’t feel good. Something is wrong.”
Not quantifiable, but improved by understanding the Brain and training it
Two options:
A. Go to 1. and crash the Ferrari again by following the same approach
or
B. Design a better Ferrari
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15
A Safer Ferrari
Let’s change the approach from 1-2-3 to 3-2-1
1. Mental setup
Your Brain and your trading
Start controlling the Brain
2. Risk and capital control
Less sexy but far more useful
3. Technical Analysis (Indicators, Indicators, Indicators)
The last link in the chain, not the first one
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16
From The Wise Men
Trading and Investing = Odds
Nothing is perfect
(if so, for a very short time).
Everything can go suddenly wrong
Negative before Positive
Far easier to lose money than to make money
Are gains a result of skill or luck? Hint: L _ _ K
Returns are not normally distributed. Unexpected events wipe out all gains and more.
Prices have memory ---> trends
Consolidations kill
There is NO printing press available (at least, not for the retail traders)
Do NOT guess the future! Follow trends with protective stops.
If you forecast, use bands/cones of higher probability.
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17
From The Wise Men
Focus on losses, not on gains. Gains do not destroy the capital. Losses do.
Risk = A personal perception of potential losses
Ask yourself “How much am I ready to lose?” – The Essence
We are humans, with many weaknesses and chemicals in the Brain
Hiding/not admitting losses and weaknesses = Hope
People expect success based on formulas
Most of the traders believe they are smarter than the market. Dead wrong
and true every time.
Do we agree with them? YES/NO
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18
Trading Is A Problem-Solving Task
We need DATA
We need KNOW-HOW
We need TIME
We need EXPERIENCE
We need TRAINING
Finally, we need EVERYTHING that makes our decisions BETTER
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19
How is this trader?
Good or bad?
More importantly, why?
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20
Skill Or Luck?
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21
Skill Or Luck?
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22
Monkey Portfolio :: S&P-500
Skill or Luck?
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23
Monkey Portfolio :: S&P-500
Skill or Luck?
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24
Monkey Portfolio :: S&P-500
Skill or Luck?
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25
How Can We Improve As Traders?
Remove noise
Make trends clearer
Focus on
Transition from Luck to Skills
Mind
Risk and capital control
Entry & Exit
Bottom line: Evolution. And evolution is a process. And process is time.
How can you compress time? By training yourself.
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26
How Can We Improve As Traders?
Remove noise and
make trends clearer
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27
Your Brain = Your Trading. Period.
Trading is about Decisions. Decisions are about Brain.
We are a mix of rationality and emotions.
Our Brain:
Outer layer
Written language, complex thinking, computing, and rationalizing
decisions
Middle layer
Where emotional responses are processed. It gives a feeling of our
decisions.
Primitive (reptilian) layer
Instinct and survival. Fear.
Our brains are designed to take short-cuts and arrive at answers quickly
When you see the lion, you run. You don’t process your options, you just run.
When panic in the market, you don’t process options, you just sell or buy.
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28
Your brain = Your trading. Period.
Cognitive biases (mental shortcuts) = Big stone blocks on the road
Similarity Marketing :: Trading
No-risk bias: Humans don’t like risk. “Trade with zero-risk!” “Open a demo.”
Anchoring bias: We rely on first/loudest info. TV, news, up/downgrades, gurus.
Bandwagon effect: Action based on group beliefs. Trends, panic buying/selling.
Selective outcome: Generalizing based on 1-2 outcomes (win/loss). FX. Trading.
Confirmation bias: Listen mostly to information that confirms our beliefs. “I, I, I”
Choice supportive bias: Feeling more positive about our (faulty) choice.
Denial bias: Refusal to admit biases. Negative feedback loop.
Ostrich effect: Ignore negative/dangerous info. Giving up stops, increased losses.
Information bias: Looking to add more information. ‘More’ is =//= from ‘better’.
Clustering illusion bias: Seeing patterns in randomness. Elliott W/seasonal/patterns.
Availability heuristics: Immediate facts are recalled and used. “Fresh = Good”
Changes: People are slow to see changes (new vs old). Behind the Curve.
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29
Your brain = Your trading. Period.
Selective perception: We observe what we expect. Distorted views.
Overconfidence: Too confident about own abilities. In trading. FX.
Placebo effect: Market cycles. 7-yr cycles now. Chart patterns.
Recent-data bias: Focus on the most recent behavior. S&P-500 recently.
Survivorship bias: Focus on what is known. Winning trading stories (no info on ---).
Salience: Recognize the most visible feature. S&P in uptrend.
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30
What Heikin-Ashi Is And Is Not
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31
Straight Talk About Heikin-Ashi
Heikin-Ashi IS a
Visual tool to identify trends easier
Price filter (less noise)
Replacement or translator for Japanese candlestick formations/patterns
Canary in the coal mine (warnings)
Technique with a short learning curve
A simple, but not easy technique
Heikin-Ashi is NOT a(n)
Indicator
Mechanical trading tool (very important!)
Very accurate reversal indicator using HA candles
Tool that generates trends. It reveals trends better.
Completely black-and-white tool. Sometimes very sharp, sometimes gray.
Substitute for money and risk management
HeikEn-Ashi
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32
Why Heikin-Ashi?
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33
Meeting Point: Traders & Heikin-Ashi
Traders focus on trends
HA is about trend visualization
Prices = Trends + Noise
HA: Clearer trends, less noise
Traders use anticipations and
confirmations
HA offers both
Support and Resistance - Very
important concepts
HA confirms support and
resistance levels
Trading is about odds
HA offers better confidence,
hence improved odds
Better input, better decisions
HA offers a better picture and
less input is required
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34
Meeting Point: Traders & Heikin-Ashi
Traders use already a wide
range of trading tools
HA can be used with these
tools or remove some
Traders anticipate (good &
bad)
HA offers haDelta. Use stops!
Traders need more confidence HA in 2/3 time frames
Options trading on the rise
HA is about trend and
reversals, i.e. trend and
support/resistance (Sell and
Buy Calls and Puts)
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35
Heikin-Ashi: Master Or Slave?
You decide
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36
Time Frame Matrix
Longer time frame
Shorter time frame
Risk
Lower
Higher
Trends
Longer
Shorter
Signal
accuracy
Better
Worse
Reward
Higher
Lower
# of trades
Lower
Higher
Emotional
intensity
Lower
Higher
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37
haDelta: The Cornerstone
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38
haDelta
haDelta = haClose – haOpen
Nothing more, nothing less, no fees, and free
NOT a mechanical indicator
Momentum indicator
Foundation for Japanese Candlestick patterns quantification
Earlier signals; not all valid, but worth looking at all.
Better to be prepared than not
Use protective stops
Noisy? Add smoothing.
Use 2x Time frames
Use it with your techniques and indicators (not many)
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39
haDelta
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40
haDelta
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41
haDelta
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42
Smoothed haDelta
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43
haDelta – Earlier Signals
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44
haDelta – Earlier Signals
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45
haDelta – Strong Signals
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46
haDelta – Failures
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47
haDelta – Failures
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48
Heikin-Ashi Trading Cocktails
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49
haDelta And Trendlines
To confirm haDelta reversals and breakouts --> Price reversals/breakouts
Simple
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50
haDelta And Trendlines
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51
haDelta And Averages
haDelta has already an SMA(3) incorporated
Heikin-Ashi candles with SMA(C,7)
Ask questions:
Does the average indicate a trend or not?
How often was MA hit ‘recently’?
Trend
Use the trailing-stop as exit (one option)
No trend
Look at the bias. Positive? Negative?
Prepare for a trade in the direction of the bias
Use stops
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52
haDelta And Averages
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53
haDelta And Bands/Channels
Trends and reversals (haDelta)
Trend and reversals (channels and bands)
Potential good marriage
Confirm with Heikin-Ashi when price is outside the bands
Use any channels/bands
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54
haDelta And Keltner Channel
Upper & lower bands
around a moving average
TP = (H+L+C)/3
MA=MA(TP,per)
UK = MA + MA(H-L,per1)
LK = MA - MA(H-L,per1)
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55
haDelta And Bollinger Bands
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56
Heikin-Ashi And Ichimoku
Both are about trends (support/resistance, reversals)
Ichimoku: A complete system (visual, risk management, entry, exit,
support/resistance)
Ichimoku: The Big Picture, Master
Heikin-Ashi: The Finer Picture, Slave
An Ichimoku crash course, first hand from Japan:
Stops are a MUST
Above the cloud: Bullish
Below the cloud: Bearish
1st (+)warning: Chikou-span above the price (bullish)
1st (-)warning: Chikou-span below the price (bearish)
Kijun-sen: Reliable support/resistance
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57
Heikin-Ashi And Ichimoku
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58
Heikin-Ashi And Ichimoku
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59
haDelta And Spearman Indicator
Spearman indicator: A trend indicator based on price and position rankings
My own indicator published by TASC (USA) in 2010
Oscillator
Trends and reversals (haDelta)
Spearman oscillator: between support and resistance levels -/+100
Let’s marry them
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60
Spearman Indicator
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61
haDelta And Spearman Indicator
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62
haDelta And Spearman Indicator
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63
haDelta And Divergences
haDelta = Momentum indicator
Divergences Price :: haDelta
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64
haDelta And Divergences
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65
haDelta And Divergences
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66
haDelta – Divergences
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67
haDelta – Divergences
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68
haDelta And Risk Control
Heikin-Ashi traps
haDelta is noisy
Add smoothing
Focus on strong signals
Heikin-Ashi candles change color often
Use a higher time frame as filter
Reduce risk
Add a trailing-stop
“How much am I ready to lose?”
Remember: It’s all about your own risk assessment, not mine, not his, not hers
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69
haDelta And Risk Control
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70
haDelta And Risk Control
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71
haDelta And Price Pivots
Pivot low
Pivot high
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72
haDelta And Price Pivots
Price pivots
Reversals, small or large (nobody knows the future)
haDelta and Heikin-Ashi: Trends and reversals
Use price action (price pivots) with Heikin-Ashi confirmation (candles & haDelta)
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73
haDelta And Price Pivots
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74
haDelta And Price Pivots
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75
haDelta And 2xTime Frames
Looking for better odds (“Trading is about odds/probabilities.”).
Higher time frames = Less noise & more confidence (see TF Matrix)
Trends should be identical in both TF
Best to initiate a trade when both time frames start showing same trend
Higher TF = Cruise ship is changing course
Lower TF = Pull the trigger
haDelta and Heikin-Ashi: Trends and reversals
Where is the exit trigger? …………………. (discussions)
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76
haDelta – 2xTime Frames (1)
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77
haDelta – 2xTime Frames (1)
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78
haDelta And 2xTime Frames (2)
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79
haDelta And 2xTime Frames (2)
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80
haDelta And 2xTime Frames (1+2)
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81
Stay Longer With The Trend
Heikin-Ashi trends are delimited by color changes or/and haDelta crossovers
A new technique using haDelta for trailing-stops
Take advantage of longer trends, despite color changes and crossovers
Dynamic protective stop, risk management
Long
Choose an haDelta bullish crossover
Trigger a Long trade
Place stop below the previous bar. How low? ……………………
Follow haDelta until next bullish haDelta crossover unless the stop is NOT hit.
If HIT, exit.
If NOT hit, move the stop below the previous bar corresponding the new
crossover
Continue until stopped out
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Stay Longer With The Trend
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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Stay Longer With The Trend
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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Stay Longer With The Trend
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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Stay Longer With The Trend
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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A better Heikin-Ashi?
Can it be done?
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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Better Heikin-Ashi Trends
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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Better Heikin-Ashi Trends
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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Better Heikin-Ashi Trends
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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Soon: A New Charting Technique
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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Before Leaving
Remember what Heikin-Ashi IS and is NOT.
Heikin-Ashi is both visual (candles) and quantifiable (indicators).
Heikin-Ashi = Trends + Reversals (Support & Resistance).
haDelta = anticipations + momentum.
Combine Heikin-Ashi candles + haDelta with other techniques.
Use stops!
Heikin-Ashi offers higher confidence.
2 time frames = Increased confidence.
Try Heikin-Ashi and see for yourself. But understand it first.
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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Q&A
www.educofin.com
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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Thank you.
Want to know more?
Contact me
Dan Valcu, CFTe
ta@educofin.com
www.educofin.com
heikinashi.wordpress.com
Heikin-Ashi in Milan - September 26, 2016
web: www.educofin.com
e-mail: ta@educofin.com
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