Examples of the Application of the Scientific Method in the Study of
Meteorological Problems
Graeme Brunst
San Francisco State University, ERTH 365
18 November 2015
1. Introduction
The scientific method is a fundamental concept in regards to producing new work in any
scientific discipline. The practice of applying the scientific method ensures a certain degree
of quality in the creation of new discoveries. The integrity of a scientific discovery hinges
upon a sound application of the scientific method. There are countless examples of the
application in the study of meteorological problems. In this paper, I will show examples of
how several prominent meteorologists have applied the scientific method to their research
and how applications of new technologies have helped influence some modern
meteorological advancements. In order to ensure a full understanding of these applications,
the reader must first be acquainted with the scientific method as a concept.
2. Definition of the Scientific Method
The fundamental aspects of the scientific method—observations, hypotheses, predictions,
data collection, and testing—have been applied for centuries and are responsible for all the
theories that are acknowledged today. In order to being working towards proving a theory,
one must first make a series of observations. For example, there is a well-observed pattern
that hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean generate off the west coast of Africa and end in the
western Atlantic, Atlantic seaboard, or the Gulf of Mexico. After making a set of
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observations, the next step of the scientific method is to formulate a hypothesis, which is a
tentative description that is consistent with what have been observed. A hypothesis is an
assumption that a scientist tests against available data to determine the validity of the idea
(Wudka, 2000). A scientist then uses the hypothesis to make predictions. The predictions
are tested by experiments or additional observations and the hypothesis is modified in
order to account for the new data (Zebrowski, 1999, p. 46). The next step in the scientific
method is to repeat the process of making predictions and testing the predictions until
there are no discrepancies between the results and the observations, this is the creation of
a theory (Wudka, 2000). Meteorological research, just like every other scientific discipline
applies the scientific method consistently in order to explain natural phenomena in a
systematic way.
3. Examples of the Scientific Method in Action
Charles and Nancy Knight are two physicists who have spent decades of their lives studying
what makes clouds work as they form ice crystals, water droplets, and precipitation. Their
research is a perfect example of how the scientific method can be applied to discover a
solution to an observable pattern. They have collected copious amounts of data and
samples of hailstones from storms that they brought back to the lab and performed
experiments on in order to better understand the processes that form the stones (Williams,
1997, p. 112). Their work has changed the understanding of how hailstones form from a
very simplistic model to a much more dynamic model. The theory that they have created
based on their experiments is that some hailstones have onion-skin layers from traveling
up and down several times in a storm. Some hailstones form around raindrops and some
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forma around ice crystals (Williams, 1997, p. 112). This work discovered a more complex
solution to what was thought of as a simple problem.
Howard Bluestein, a tornado researcher at the University of Oklahoma, has spent
much of his life chasing after storms in order to understand the structure of these
meteorological features. He and his team made the observation that some thunderstorms
produce tornados while other do not (Williams, 1997, p. 120). After making this
observation, he and his team set out into countless thunderstorms to collect data and
perform experiments in order to find an answer to this question. He employed the use of a
Totable Tornado Observatory, TOTO, weather balloons, and Doppler radar to obtain
valuable and difficult to obtain experimental data (Williams, 1997, p. 120). This data has
been useful to him to answer the question as to why some storms form tornados while
others do not. This is another sound application of the scientific method in order to solve a
meteorological puzzle.
Hugh Willoughby is the head of hurricane research at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Miami. He has been flying planes into hurricanes
for decades in order to refine existing mathematical theories about hurricanes with casual
visual observations. He is working towards discovering things that will help forecasters do
a better job of predicting where a hurricane is going and how strong it will be when it
makes landfall (Williams, 1997, p. 162). There are mathematical theories that exist to
better understand the fluid dynamics of hurricanes, but Willoughby is hoping with more
observations and data collection that these theories can be refined to produce more exact
results. A more exact theory on hurricane movement and strength could potentially save
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thousands of lives if the prediction was disseminated to a threatened population before a
threatening hurricane makes landfall.
Theodore Fujita, the inventor of the tornado damage scale, through the application
of the scientific method has made a major contribution to the study of downbursts from
thunderstorms. In 1945, he observed starburst damage pattern caused by the aerial
explosions of the nuclear bombs that had destroyed the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in
World War II (Williams, 1997, p. 126). Upon flying over the damage from the 1974 Super
Tornado Outbreak, he observed a similar damage pattern on the ground and began to draw
some correlations. He formulated the hypothesis that downdrafts from thunderstorms did
indeed hit the ground hard enough to cause damage. He called these damage patterns
downbursts (Williams, 1997, p. 126). Through the power of observation, Fujita formed a
working assumption that he was able to test with further observations and quickly gained a
reputation as an observational genius.
4. Example of Obtaining Data in the Field
The gathering of observations and data in the field is a key aspect to formulating new
theories in the discipline of atmospheric sciences. There is only so much data that can be
obtained in a laboratory setting when it comes to meteorology, so researchers have put
themselves in many compromising positions in order to collect accurate and representative
data of atmospheric occurrences. One such researcher is Erik Rasmussen who is a leading
expert on mesoscale meteorology. Rasmussen has been chasing storms for decades in
order to unlock the secrets of the tornado (Williams, 1997, p. 133). He wanted to make
sense of the complex atmospheric ingredients that come together and result in deadly
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tornados (Williams, 1997, p. 133). It is with this hypothesis that he set out to the field to
find some answers to these questions.
So with this hypothesis in mind—that tornados are the product of jumbled
atmospheric ingredients—Rasmussen created a mobile weather observing system (mobile
mesonet) that was designed to be mounted onto an automobile and driven as close as
possible to storms (Straka et al., 1996). With the mobile mesonet fleet, Rasmussen was able
to obtain very accurate data for benign, pre-storm, and severe storm conditions. This data
can be analyzed to attempt to discern a pattern that leads to more or less violent storms.
The mobile mesonet features instruments that can measure pressure, temperature, relative
humidity, and wind speed and direction (Straka, et al., 1996). The mobile mesonet also
includes a GPS receiver and a flux-gate compass to obtain universal time, vehicle location
and vehicle heading and speed (Straka, et al., 1996). The data collected by these devices is
stored on a standard laptop computer inside the vehicle. The laptop displays real-time data
and computes derived variables (Straka, et al., 1996). By driving these mobile weather
stations into the path of a tornado, Rasmussen and his team can collect data that is
otherwise impossible to obtain. Granted, the mesonet produces the most accurate data
from a stationary position but the data collected from a mobile mesonet is still accurate
enough to produce quality results. With these new and more accurate data samples,
Rasmussen could potentially develop a new set of predictions that could be tested and
developed into a theory on tornadogenesis.
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5. Discussion
The scientific method is an invaluable too for researchers to apply to their research in
order to generate the most accurate framework to explain a set of observations and
predictions. As displayed in the above examples, all respectable researchers in the field of
meteorology employ this method to explain atmospheric puzzles. New technological
advancements are frequently created in order to generate the most accurate data and
potentially result in revolutionary theories. Most theories are well accepted, some still
generate dissidence from certain critics, but the beauty of a theory is that it is based on
observations, predictions, and experiments that are repeatable by anyone with the desire
to question it.
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6. References
Straka, J. M., Rasmussen E. N., and Fredrickson, S.E., 1996: A Mobile Mesonet for Finescale
Meteorological Observations. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 13, 921–936.
Williams, J, 1997: The Weather Book. Vintage Books. 226 pp.
Wudka, Jose, 2000: Physics 7 Notes--The Scientific Method. UC Riverside Course Online
course notes.
Zebrowski, Ernest, 1999: Perils of a Restless Planet: Scientific Perspectives on Natural
Disasters. Cambridge University Press, 306 pp.
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