IUPUI J-260 Spring 2012/Updated Spring 2014 Lecture by Dr Terry Simmons Dr Simmons is an associate faculty lecturer at IUPUI in Indianapolis, a visiting lecturer at IU Bloomington and an associate professor of political science at Ivy Tech Community College. He teaches political science courses at all three institutions and occasionally international studies at IUB. He has two commercial publications and four in-house publications involving RussianAmerican relations, international relations and politics of the Middle East to include a recent publication with American Military University on Syria. He is a member of The Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C. as well as Infraguard (Indiana) and AFIO, Washington, D.C. POSTMODERN INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM ABSTRACT Defining terrorism is always the first challenge when treating this complicated subject. Many definitions have been formulated and circulated. Some are more functional and precise than others depending on several variables such as the nature of the organizations and their individual and collective missions and needs as well as the extant political and security environment(s) in which they are currently operating. This paper will utilize two definitions widely accepted by the American intelligence community as well as academia and the critical media. The United States Department of States’ working definition is applicable to the general threat environment currently facing the United States. Title 22, Chapter 38 of the United States Code (regarding the Department of State) contains a definition of terrorism in its requirement that annual country reports on terrorism be submitted by the Secretary of State to Congress every year; it reads: i “Definition....the term ‘terrorism’ means premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents.”1 Dr Bruce Hoffman, longtime CIA counterterrorism expert and Professor at Georgetown University, formulated the following descriptive attributes to the definition of terrorism: “It is ineluctably political in aims and motives Violent-or, equally important, threatens violence Designed to have far-reaching psychological repercussions beyond the immediate victim or target Conducted by an organization with an identifiable chain of command or conspiratorial cell structure (whose members wear no uniform or identifying insignia) and Perpetrated by a sub-national group or non-state entity.”2 Hoffman then further stipulates: “We may therefore now attempt to define terrorism in the deliberate creation and exploitation of fear through violence or the threat of violence in pursuit of political change. All terrorist acts involve violence. Terrorism is specifically designed to have farreaching psychological effects beyond the immediate victim(s) or object of terrorist attack. It is meant to instill fear within, and thereby intimidate, a wider ‘target audience’ that might include a rival ethnic or religious group, an entire country, a national government or political party, or public opinion in general. Terrorism is designed to create power where there is none or to consolidate power where there is very little. Through the publicity 22 U.S.C. section 2656f(d) (http://.law.cornell.edu/uscode/22/usc_sec_2200002656–f000-.html) 1 2 Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism, 2nd ed., Columbia University Press, 2006, p. 41. ii generated by their violence, terrorists seek to obtain the leverage, influence and power they otherwise lack to effect political change on either a local or an international scale.”3 This examination will attempt to delineate the long history of classical terrorism with post-modern constructs and philosophies rooted in new manifestations rooted in constructivism and internet cyber-terrorism. The basic definitions still apply but have morphed into viral form(s) catalyzed by globalization and audacious new technologies and political realities. Two excellent case studies will introduce this new set of dynamics: the terrorists attacks in the United States in 2001 and the Madrid train bombings in 2004, perpetuated by al Qaeda in both cases with the aid of ETA in the second case. Both of these seminal cases are now classic examples of the transformation from classical frontal warfare waged by organized military forces to asymmetrical NGO-type organizations employing non-traditional tactics and guerilla forces with the singular objective of realizing political goals without the traditional nation-state mechanisms. 3 Hoffman, pg. 41 iii POSTMODERN INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM Terrorism, in the recognized historical sense, has historical antecedents as old as warfare itself. From the time of Thucydides and the Peloponnesian War, and before, terrorism in the form of assassination was used extensively to demoralize the enemy, particularly an enemy with superior numbers and/or armaments. This asymmetrical warfare tactic was intended then, as in modern times, to damage one’s opponent psychologically by inducing fear, or terror.4 From this early period through history terrorism has increased in usage at all levels and has grown in intensity, complexity and sophisticated applications. What has remained constant, however, is the continued utility of terrorism as a tool of irregular warfare. The political objective is paramount above all else. What cannot be achieved through doctrinaire forms of warfare can often be achieved using irregular forces working outside the normal definitions of organized military instrumentalities. It is the results obtained by terrorism that make it an attractive venue for nation-states and NGO’s as well as “lone wolf” visionaries and radicals. In Jonathan White’s Terrorism and Homeland Security, Chapter 15, The Role of Symbols and Structures, he describes asymmetrical warfare as being waged…”against symbolic targets, and Homeland Security is designed to secure symbols.5 Hoffman further uses the Oklahoma City attack of the Murrah Federal Building as an example: “The bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City in 1995, for example, had symbolic value, but the casualties were horrific.”6 That building was not bombed by soldiers in uniform nor units of a military air force, but rather, by perpetrators not wearing any military insignia at all. Their purposes, as claimed by Timothy Mac Veigh and Terry Nichols 4 Robert B. Strassler. The Landmark Thucydides. A Contemporary Guide to the Peloponnesian War, pages 8, 70. 5 Jonathan R. White. Terrorism and Homeland Security, p.277. 6 Ibid, pg. 277. 1 alike, were to redress grievances arising from the perceived injustices caused by an agency of the United States government and several of their agencies, particularly the FBI and ATF, in their combined assault on the compound at Waco, Texas and at Ruby Ridge. This fits the descriptive language of using asymmetrical means to use terror in a symbolic way to realize a POLITICAL objective. The 1993 bombing of the Twin Towers in New York City and the infamous attack that followed on September 11, 2001, on same as well as the Pentagon, had the same objectives and symbolism, to realize an assortment of political objectives not attainable through the standard instruments of war. After all, the perpetrators in these cases had not the means to attack these targets in conventional military ways. They chose weapons and methods afforded to them by their enemies and the surrounding environment; they turned heavy American aircraft laden with fuel, into devastating cruise missiles. Eleven years later, the United States and the rest of the world are still absorbing those blows. The political-symbolic aftermath, reverberates today. Long standing effects are the most desirable results of terrorism.7 A strong argument can be made, of course, that those objectives were met with al Qaeda, in New York as well as their many other American and Allied targets around the world, by a determined and well schooled cadre of new-age warriors, Holy Warriors, on a self-proclaimed Jihad.8 See Hoffman. His constant theme in his lengthy descriptions of the effects and objectives of terrorism is that long-term psychological damage against highly symbolic targets, is the ultimate realization of political terrorism. 7 Lawrence Wright. The Looming Tower: Al Qaeda and the Road to 9/11. Bin Laden issued a fatwa in 1996 proclaiming…”terrorizing you, while you are carrying arms in our land, is a legitimate right and a moral obligation.” 8 2 CASE STUDIES There were many attacks on American assets both military and political before the horrendous attacks in New York and Washington DC on September 11, 2001. After Osama bin Laden’s fatwas and his successful assaults against America afterwards, 9.11 offered the United States, it’s NATO and other allies, even Vladimir Putin, a vivid demonstration of the new world they were now entering. This was an unfamiliar and hostile world of unknown possibilities, the horrifying world of world-wide terrorism! From Khobar Towers, the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, to the USS Cole in Aden, as well as many others, the intensity and number of attacks changed America. According to the 9/11 Commission Report, the American government’s response to this drumbeat of terrorist assault was as dramatic as the attacks themselves. Reorganizing the entire American government superstructure was indicative of the width and breadth of those adaptations. In November 2002 the United States Congress and President George W. Bush established by law the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States.9 The USA Patriot Act resulted from the efforts of Congress to enhance law enforcement as well as intelligence authorities and coordination in a comprehensive attempt to prevent another massive attack on the homeland.10 Perhaps more significantly, George Bush embarked on a draconian program which came under the banner of “The War on Terror.”11 9/11 Commission Report. The Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, Authorized Edition. 9 10 Ibid. Contained in what became known as “The Bush Doctrine,” the principles of preemption and democratic evangelism replaced traditional precepts of American defensive reaction to foreign attack. The most basic translation of this new approach was that, when identified as a threat, America would attack first. Bush further declared that the new operating principle of the United States government would be anchored upon the following supposition: “You are either with us, or you are against us!” There were so many reiterations of this phraseology that a general reference will suffice here. Bush’s explicit report to West Point in 2002 left no doubt as to the intent of the new Bush Doctrine. 11 3 Most Americans, in fact most literate world citizens, know the basic story line of 9.11. It is not necessary to rehash it for our purposes here. Suffice it to say, that episode changed America forever. Let us turn to another indirect attack on the United States by Al Qaeda, the Madrid train bombing in March 2004. It was an indirect attack on American national interests because it directly affected one of America’s most important NATO partners, Spain. As a willing participant in the “Coalition of the Willing,” Spain was helping with the War on Terror by supplying troops to Iraq. After the 1996 and subsequent 1998 fatwas, or religious declarations, by Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, the pace of jihadi terrorism picked up dramatically. Driven apparently by increasing success and obvious frustration on the part of the United States and its Allies to resist that success, bin Laden and others were encouraged. The ultimate success was, of course, the dramatic victories generated by 9.11. Genuine fear and terror was being experienced throughout the United States for the first time in a sustained way in the United States. That sense of foreboding gloom spread throughout the American empire. It did seem, indeed, that terrorism was everywhere and could not be stopped. The Madrid train bombings reinforced the sensational advances caused by 9.11 in 2004. On March 11, 2004, ten bombs exploded on four earlymorning commuter trains in Madrid, killing 191 people and leaving at least 1,800 wounded. Eta, a Basque separatist group, was highly suspected. A letter sent to a London-based newspaper claimed…Abu Hafs, an Al Qaeda affiliate, responsible for Madrid, linking ETA and Al Qaeda.12 Al Qaeda subsequently claimed the attacks were in retaliation for Spain’s collaboration 12 Timeline: Madrid Investigation -BBC Wednesday 28 April, 2004. 4 …with the criminals Bush and his allies.”13 This offers dramatic proof of the effectiveness of the jihadist terrorist methodology in use during this period of open confrontation between Bush and the Al Qaeda organization. Coinciding with this cascade of jihadist successes was the increasing realization by the Bush administration that the Iraq war was NOT over by any stretch as the Iraqi insurgency began to take hold negating Bush proclamations that the American combat role was over. Seven more years of bitter warfare ensued and American military losses increased progressively and substantially. These two case studies chronicle the successful tactics of terrorism in dramatic fashion and are useful to track the evolution of terrorism. Why postmodern? What is different now? The identifiable variables to be used to answer that broad question are these: 1. Globalization has increased its affects throughout the world. 2. Hamas and Hezbollah, along with other jihadist terrorist groups, are moving toward state-building and away from open violence. 3. Cyber-terrorism is replacing the truck bomb and suicide bomber, with the exception of post-sovereign Iraq. 4. The definition of terrorism, originally state-sponsored and then asymmetrical NGO-based, is morphing to technological equity, as perpetrators are equal in their abilities to terrorize via the internet and social-networking tools. In fact, it may be claimed by both cyber warriors as well as governments, that the hacktivists have the edge. The American government, the Obama administration to be sure, is actively recruiting for cyber-specialists in this response to cyber-terrorism. Groups such as Anonymous, Wikipedia, and a field of others are causing panic in the intelligence communities. Ibid, pg 1. As a direct result of this attack…Spain’s Socialist Party won a surprise victory in the country’s general election, Spanish voters turning on the conservative government. 13 5 The need for violence is diminishing as the real threats are cyber threats to the infrastructure and the “Grid.” The real violence seems to be originating from American drone strikes against terrorists and/or their base camps. This is what the war on terrorism looks like in 2012. The 2011 assassination of Osama bin Laden himself in Pakistan by an elite seal team already seems anachronistic; the mechanical drones and their super-intelligence capabilities, augmented by Hellfire missiles, are rapidly making Special Forces teams less necessary. Warfare, doctrinaire or asymmetrical, evolves, of course. The political machinery must evolve as well. Social networking is revolutionizing international relations. Witness the politics in a cup (mine) phenomenon in the recent Arab Spring, the American 99er movement and of course, the current Russian winter. CONCLUSIONS The inevitable struggle for global power is being waged largely with perceptional threat. Though overwhelming military power still resides with the United States, American hegemony is being systemically and seriously eroded on the perceptional front. Nuclear weapons are no longer viable; “a weapon unused is a useless weapon” as the mantra goes. As the United States suffers from classic overstretch, as predicted by Paul Kennedy, American power is being challenged by threats to the infrastructure and the GRID.14 Almost all military offensives are presaged by cyber-attack against the opponent’s command and control infrastructure or C5I. Witness Russia’s cyber attack against Georgia in the 2008 war that virtually immobilized Georgian forces. Coupled with new social networking and cyber threat tools, U S military hegemony may be dissipating rapidly. 2013 addendum and updates-J260-February 22, 2013: 14 Paul Kennedy. Yale University Press, 1989. The Rise and Fall of The Great Powers. 6 Additional information and a fresh perspective has been added to this lecture for the Spring 2013 class. With the recent emphasis on the drone (UAV) program employed by the American Department of Defense and CIA, a return to a kinetic military response has been emphasized in American counterterrorism methods. The efficiency of the drones cannot be denied for effectiveness in the counterterrorism efforts of the United States to decapitate jihadist leadership, especially in regards to al Qaeda. Reports by President Obama himself on many public occasions have assured the American public that up to 75 percent of kill list al Qaeda leaders have been eliminated with this technology. Drones have become an effective and lethal response for surveillance and attacking the enemy in his own county. Drones can acquire, profile, pinpoint and kill jihadists with pinpoint accuracy worldwide. The upside to this scenario is that American soldiers are not on the ground and in harm’s way. The downside is that collateral damage from drone attacks has offered jihadists fodder for propaganda on the internet and in their sponsor governments. For purposes of our course discussion, it seems appropriate to pose the question: does the efficiency of the drone campaign negate the thesis argument that terrorism, as an asymmetrical attack against the superior military forces, is no longer morphing into postmodern terrorism, or the psychological threat of attack through cyber and psychological threat campaigns, the position of this paper? I believe the broad answer to that question is no. The attack against Benghazi, Libya, manifests this point. Al Qaeda, always adaptable, used an al Qaeda franchise affiliate, Ansar al Sharia, to do what al Qaeda has always done best-adapt to the situation and take what opportunities the enemy offers you. The United States is a moral and legalistic society. The deaths of one of its diplomatic personnel and three members of his support team were a significant blow to American moral. Executed on the anniversary of 9/11, this attack was largely a symbolic attack against American prestige and national pride, the FAVORITE target of al Qaeda and 7 terrorist groups in general. Four American KIA’s are relatively insignificant in terms of damage to the U.S. military; the psychological damage to America was very significant, however, and has given the jihadist cause new life. The success of this attack propelled the subsequent attack against the oil refinery in Algeria (Terrorist who attack Algerian oil refinery also took part in US Consulate attack in Benghazi, 2013). These are prime examples of the psychological impacts of terrorism. In a larger strategic sense, the threat of shutting down a nation’s water supply, electrical grid, financial system or transportation system, is much more devastating and effective. That is the definition of terror on a massive scale. This constitutes a new postmodern front in the application of the asymmetrical threat we have come to know as terrorism. Updates for 2014: The basic precepts originally outlined in this 2012 paper remain constant. As a confirmation of the theoretical concept, it seems appropriate to add the controversies surrounding Bradley Manning, Julian Assange and now Edward Snowden. Though kenetic acts of terrorism cannot be definitively connected to their respective activities, it is increasingly arguable that their release of classified documents worldwide has substantially added to the threat of terrorism. For example, the fears are palpable that those releases of information of American and British military actions and covert campaigns both on the battlefield and in cyberspace have terrorized soldier and citizen alike. A pervasive sense of uncertainty and the threat of dire consequences and our respective notions of national security act to destabilize and terrorize the military as well as the common citizen by dislodging certainty in our foundations, institutions and national trust. This psychological destabilization is highly effective to create agency of the most negative type of constructivism; if it can be proposed, implied and repeated in political and psychological terms, the perception of 8 terror is created and may affect the actions of rational actors through perceptual change. Wendt, Onuf, and Kabulkova have written extensively about agency as a product of perceptional change in politics (Wendt, 1999). (2013). Terrorist who attack Algerian oil refinery also took part in US Consulate attack in Benghazi. The Sheba Post. Wendt, A. (1999). Social Theory of International Relations. Cambridge: Cambridge . If it is conceptualized, if it is expressed, it becomes an agent of change from conjectural and the subjective to reality. Real political change often results. A convincing argument can be made, and was in the 9/11 Commission Report, that the threat of terrorism, especially potential nuclear terrorism, would cause the United States to reorganize its entire government and spend untold billions of dollars in anticipation of a devastating threat. As these “information evangelists” (mine) have commandeered the attention of the world regarding security revelations of the United States in particular, they have also introduced the fears that release of classified information will cause irreparable harm to American foreign policy in general and to our homeland security in particular. The perception of fear of the NSA is as palpable as fear of al Qaeda or the myriad other terrorist organizations. Fears of the hacker revelations of Wiki Leaks and Anonymous have also destabilized the security world. Violence has morphed from dominant actual kinetic actions such as car bombings that continue in Iraq and Lebanon today, to the threat of cyberterrorism as witnessed in the thousands of cyber assaults upon American infrastructure, corporate and military, threatening a cataclysmic cascade of events against the American stock market, water sources, banking systems, as well as the various levels of previously secure internet traffic of the Department of Defense. 9 10 Bibliography White, Jonathan, R. (2006) Terrorism and Homeland Security. Fifth Edition. Thompson Wadsworth. Belmont, Ca. 9.11 Commission, Authorized Edition.(2002) The 9.11 Commission Report, Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. W. W. Norton & Co. New York. Wright, Lawrence. ((2006) The Looming Tower. Al Qaeda and the Road to 9/11. Alfred A. Knopf. New York. Strassler, Robert, B. (1996) The Landmark Thucydides. A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War. Free Press. New York. Hoffman, Bruce. (2006) Inside Terrorism. Columbia University Press. New York. Kennedy, Paul. (1989) The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. Yale University Press. New Haven, Conn. Timeline: Madrid Investigation-BBC Wednesday, 28 April, 200622 U. S. C. section 2656f(d), http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3597885.stm http://.law.cornell.edu/uscode/22/usc_sec_22~00002656-f000-.html Lieberman, Joseph, I. and Collins, Susan, M. Flashing Red: A Special Report on the Terrorist Attack at Benghazi. United States Senate Committee On Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. December 30, 2012. Corporate author: “Terrorist who attack Algerian oil refinery also took part in US Consulate attack in Benghazi.” The Sheba Post. Monday, 18 February, 2013 11