The Osaka Double Election and its Effect on Local and National Politics
By Eric Johnston
KANSAI CONSULAR CORPS Nov. 18th, 2015
Notice: The opinions contained within are
those of Eric Johnston and not necessarily
those of The Japan Times.
For Governor: Incumbent Gov. Ichiro Matsui
Former member of the LDP who joined forces with
Hashimoto when he became governor, bringing with him
about a dozen allies, all of whom quit the LDP to join
Osaka Ishin.
Worked a firm connected to Kansai Electric Power Co.
before entering politics.
Is generally considered to be not as media-savvy as
Hashimoto, but more politically astute and somewhat less
confrontational.
Very popular in the southern part of Osaka prefecture.
For Governor: Challenger Takako Kurihara
Osaka prefectural assembly woman who is known as one of the most
trenchant critics of Osaka Ishin in the prefectural assembly.
LDP is counting on her to gain the support of women voters, and
especially women who might normally be Komeito or independent
voters.
She has performed poorly in televised debates with Matsui. Some
media polls have put her as much as 20 points behind.
She may also draw a fair number of older Osaka women who normally
support Komeito candidates (the ``Oba-chan’’ vote’’)
For Mayor: Hirofumi Yoshimura
Toru Hashimoto’s hand-picked choice to replace him as mayor,
Yoshimura has promised to continue with the Hashimoto
Revolution, especially that of merging Osaka’s wards.
A former Ishin Diet member, Yoshimura lost the race for a single
district seat to an LDP candidate (receiving 74,000 of the 212,000
votes cast for four candidates, the other three of whom opposed
Ishin) and only entered the Diet as a proportional representative.
He is a lawyer by training, but has a reputation of being more
conciliatory and more of a negotiator than Hashimoto.
For Mayor: Akira Yanagimoto
From Nishinari-ku
Former employee of Kansai Electric Power
Former LDP city assemblyman
Face of the anti-Osaka merger, Anti-Osaka Ishin campaign this past spring, has a
reputation of getting along well with political opponents, or at least being well-mannered.
His candidacy (along with Kurihara’s) supported by local chapters of the LDP, Japan
Communist Party, and the Democratic Party of Japan –to the consternation of senior
LDP officials in Tokyo.
Opposes Osaka Ishin plan to merge the city’s wards
Favors reducing bureaucracy and eliminating redundancy between prefecture and city
via discussion at the ``Osaka Conference’’, which includes officials from the prefecture
and Sakai.
Supporting Cast
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
• Has met with Hashimoto and Matsui
numerous times.
• Likes their views on education and
constitutional revision
• Hopes to form an alliance with Hashimoto’s
new national political party ``Osaka Ishin no
Kai’’ in order realize both of the above goals.
Chief Cabinet Sec. Yoshihide Suga
• Is growing closer to Matsui, as the two
men both serve more powerful,
charismatic leaders.
• Like, Abe, hopes Matsui and Hashimoto
will be able to grow their political party
into a powerful ally of the LDP.
Supporting Cast
Minister of Internal Affairs Sanae Takaichi
LDP Policy Chief Tomomi Inada
Represents Nara #2 (Lower House)
``The Queen of Fukui Politics’’, long-time LDP rep. From Fukui
No. 1 (Fukui city, not nuke plants)
Ultra-right wing, favors underground nuclear plants, Emperor visits
to Yasukuni, opposes women keeping name after marriage (though
she uses hers)
Close to Abe, but doesn’t belong to any faction.
Her ministry has much influence over both Osaka merger plan and
could cause trouble (or not) for Hashimoto’s new party.
Her husband, Taku Yamamoto, is Diet member from Fukui
(proportional rep)
Ultra-right wing, Abe favorite, who is being pushed by him as his
replacement as PM.
Has been especially critical of Hashimoto, though questions
about whether she’s posing, as many Osaka Ishin members like
her and she shares many of Ishin’s goals and concerns.
Husband is lawyer connected to Osaka-based firm.
Supporting Cast
LDP General Council Chair Toshihiro Nikai
Powerful Lower House faction leader from Wakayama, Head of the 33
member Nikai faction of the LDP. More of an `old school’ rural LDP
politician, who is considered part of the LDP’s `pro-China, pro-Korea’
factions.
Has suggested, in vague terms, a ``Kinki Mega Region’’ Scheme, which
would, among other things, ensure the maglev shinkansen is extended to
Osaka, as an alternative to Osaka merger plan favored by Hashimoto.
Announcement made just before Akira Yanagimoto, nephew of Takuji
Yanagimoto, who belongs to the Nikai faction, declared his candidacy for
mayor. Sanae Takaichi’s husband Taku Yamamoto also in faction.
Abe Cabinet advisor Taichi Sakaiya
Powerful behind-the-scenes courtier, and the man credited
with getting Toru Hashimoto into politics and the whole Osaka
Ishin movement off the ground.
Extensive contacts in Kansai corporate world, and the
`godfather’ of Osaka Ishin’s and Hashimoto’s economic
policies.
A Tangled Web. . .
Yoshihide Suga
Toshihiro Nikai
Ichiro Matsui
Shinzo Abe
Taichi Sakaiya
XX
Sanae
Takaichi
Toru Hashimoto
Tomomi
Inada
Akira Yanagimoto
Hirofumi Yoshimura
????????
Takuji Yanagimoto
What the Media Polls Say (as of today)
• Matsui has a lead over Kurihara
• Yoshimura has a slight lead over
Yanagimoto
• 41% of LDP supporters have
expressed understanding of Osaka
Ishin’s promise to try once again for
a merger. 70 percent of Japan
Communist Party members are
opposed.
• Only 28 percent of unaffiliated voters
say they understand Osaka Ishin
wanting to redo the merger plan,
while 62 percent are opposed.
• Yoshimura appears to be more
popular among younger voters
(under 50), while Yanagimoto
appears to have the over 60s.
The Key to the Elections II: Unaffiliated Voters
How many of those who are not party-affiliated will
vote?
If polls are correct and most unaffiliated voters
oppose Osaka Ishin’s merger plan, the higher the
turnout of older unaffiliated voters, the better the
result for Kurihara and Yanagimoto. The higher the
rate of younger affiliated voerters, the better the
result for Matsui and Yoshimura
It appears Hashimoto and Osaka Ishin have
attempted to court unaffiliated voters somewhat
more than the established parties
The Key to the Elections I: Komeito
19 members in the city assembly (same as the LDP) and 3rd
largest party in prefectural assembly (15 members) to the
LDP’s 25 members. Osaka Ishin has plurality in both but
cannot form a majority coalition without Komeito.
Komeito has opposed the Osaka merger. Latest polls show
82.9 percent of Komeito supporters don’t sympathize with
Ishin merger plan.
Split between the national chapter and the Osaka chapter
over how to handle Hashimoto. Komeito fears Hashimoto
might run against either Kazuo Kitagawa (Osaka 16th
district) or Shigeki Sato (Osaka 3rd) in next Lower House
election.
Can Komeito rally enough Soka Gakkai supporters to
overcome Osaka Ishin supporters?
Of Possible Interest to the Kansai Consular Corps. . .
On San Francisco’s efforts to build a statue to the `comfort women’:
Yanagimoto is unlikely to make this an issue, or say anything about it, and will
attempt to restore goodwill through the traditional sister city association.
Yoshimura’s opinion is unknown
On Kansai Electric’s efforts to restart nuclear power plants:
Yanagimoto, a former Kepco employee, has never indicated an interest in
renewable energy initiatives and supports (strongly?) nuclear power.
Yoshimura has said little about nuclear power, just repeating what Hashimoto
has said. Matsui has serious doubts about getting out of nuclear power but also
sees business opportunities in renewables.
On Casino Gambling: (an `integrated resort’ plan)
Yoshimura and Matsui remain hopeful about Osaka getting a casino sometime
after the 2020 Olympics, but Yanagimoto has serious personal doubts.
IN CONCLUSION
• A win by both Osaka Ishin candidates is a win for Ichiro Matsui in particular, and will make it
easier to recruit candidates for Osaka Ishin no Kai in next summer’s Upper (and Lower?)
House elections.
• A win by both Osaka Ishin candidates may not necessarily disappoint Suga and Abe, who
would view Osaka Ishin as a powerful ally in the Diet to help counter Komeito, especially on
the issue of constitutional revision.
• A win by Yanagimoto is likely more important to the local LDP than a win by Kurihara,
because the main issue in both elections is the proposal to merge the city.
• Losses by the LDP candidates will further damage the local party chapter’s credibility and
anger other LDP factions (especially the Nikai faction). How Abe and Suga handle interparty
concerns if Yanagimoto and Kurihara lose is key to their own power within the Diet.
• A win by any of the other candidates would be a shock, and likely lead to continued gridlock
that would be worse than with an Osaka Ishin/established party candidate
• What Hashimoto will do after the election is anyone’s guess.