Science and Policy for Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions
Daniel M. Kammen
Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the Environment
Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy
Department of Nuclear Engineering
University of California, Berkeley
Materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu
APS, UC Berkeley, February 29, 2008
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Outline
•The most common call for a new energy economy is for diversity
• Operationally, what does this mean?
• Energy efficiency has been the greatest success to date, more
are needed, and fast
• Carbon accounting and pricing is essential
• Developing nations will be the locus of many of the largest
impacts and opportunities to build the clean-energy
economy, or to exert the most social and environmental
damage
• A foundation for a new wave of research and development
requires investment and a outlet for implementation
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Global Energy Supply by Fuel
A massive carbon
Baseline & inertia
Sufficient opportunities
exist
Fastest growth,
smallest sectors
Fossil Energy
Other Energy
Wind, Solar & Biofuels
MBDOEAverage Growth / Yr.
MBDOE
MBDOE
350
2000 - 2030
70
1.6%
1.6%
300
60 Wind & Solar20.5%
250
1.6%
200
1.6%
150
100
50 Biofuels 7.2%
1.7%
Coal
Gas
1.3%
50
Oil
0
1980
2005
2030
10
4
Solar 8.4%
3
1.4%
30
20
8.8%
2.2%
40
Hydro/Geo
Other
5
2
12.5%
Nuclear
Biomass /
Other
0
1980
2005
Wind
1.0%
2030
1
Biofuels
0
1980
2005
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
7.2%
2030
Calif.: AB 32 Emissions Reductions
Required % Change from 1990 levels
50%
CEC Data
Business as Usual
40%
AB 32 Scenario
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
The California commitment - scaled to the
nation
3.0
Business as usual (EIA)
2.5
Historic U. S.
U.S. GHG Emissions (GT C eq.)
emissions
Administration intensity target
2.0
1.5
Kyoto protocol
1.0
CA targets scaled from 35 to 300
California AB 32, AB1493
& EE 3-05
Scaled from CA
million
to the nation
0.5
Climate Stabilization Zone
0.0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Kammen, “September 27, 2006 – A day to remember”, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
2050
C3: taking the next step
and/or
3
C
Dynamic  Up-to-date  Flexible  Transparent  Open
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Costs of Conserved Energy
Potential Electricity Savings from High-Efficiency Case in 2010
(5 Labs study: many authors in this room today)
1
2
3
4
5
Commercial lighting
Commercial space conditioning
Commercial refrigeration
Res idential lighting
Res idential s pace conditioning
6
7
8
9
10
Commercial water heating
Commercial miscellaneous + other us es
Res idential refrigerators and freezers
Res idential water heating
Res idential mis cellaneous + other uses
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Global CO2 Abatement Opportunities
Vattenfall, 2007
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
C3/GtT Team
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Prof. Dan Kammen, ERG/GSPP/Nuc. Eng -- Advisor
Joe Kantner, ERG – Team Co-Leader; Presentations; Linkages; Solar PV
Ian Hoffman, ERG – Team Co-Leader; Nuclear; Solar Thermal; Wind; Qualitative Indices
Jon Mingle, ERG – Energy Efficiency
Eric Gimon, LBL – Nuclear; Solar Thermal
Joe Levin, GSPP – Nuclear; Integration/Standardization
Anna Motschenbacher, ERG – Presentations; Linkages; Biophysical Feedbacks
Suzie Shin, ERG – Presentations; Integration/Standardization
Jameel Alsalam, GSPP – Solar Thermal
Josiah Johnston, ERG – Integration/Standardization; Wiki/Open Collaboration
Sam Borgeson, ERG/ARCH – Energy Efficiency
Alexia Byrne, ME -- Wind
Ryoichi Komiyama, LBL – LDNE Model
Thomas Goerner, Haas – Solar Thermal
Zack Norwood, ME – Solar Thermal
Kat Saad, CE – Integration/Standardization; Solar PV
Anand Gopal, ERG -- Biomass
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Low-carbon technologies as least-cost, fastdeployment, technology options: wind
(ptc: US production tax credit)
160
140
Average Price of Wind
Power Without PTC
Operating Cost of Natural
Gas Combustion Turbine
100
80
60
Average Price of Wind
Power With PTC
40
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
2006
2005
2004
2003
Wholesale Price Range
for Flat Block of Power
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
1996
Operating Cost of Natural
Gas Combined Cycle
2002
20
1990
2005$/MWh
120
80% of rural Nicaragua lacks electricity
blueEnergy – an example NGO energy service provider based on the
Atlantic Coast
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Information Technology Integrated with
Solar Technology: Performance Monitoring
Enphase Application
Servers
00111001
Internet
00111001
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Micro-inverters versus traditional designs
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
TIMELINE:
Energy Biosciences Institute
October 23: Berkeley,
California, press release
University of California, Berkeley
October 23, 2007
Berkeley Breakthrough on Financing
Solar Energy and Energy Efficiency
Berkeley, CA – Berkeley is set to become
the first city in the nation to allow
property owners to pay for energy
efficiency improvements and solar
system installation as a long-term
assessment on their individual property
tax bill.
This makes energy efficiency + solar PV
an investment at $0.0 - $0.10 cents/kWh
OctoberBerkeley
30: State
Attorney
Lawrence
National
Laboratory
University
of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign
General
& Treasurer
to work
for statewide version
November 1: US DoE pledges
support
November 8: Approved by the
city council, up for review as
a statewide initiative
June 2008: operational date
Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards (RPS)
29 states + Washington, DC, and counting
MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +
Xcel mandate of
1,125 MW wind by 2010
*WA: 15% by 2020
MT: 15% by 2015
VT: RE meets load
growth by 2012
ME: 30% by 2000;
10% by 2017 goal - new RE
WI: requirement varies by
utility; 10% by 2015 Goal
MA: 4% by 2009 +
1% annual increase
RI: 15% by 2020
CT: 10% by 2010
CA: 20% by 2010
IA: 105 MW
NV: 20% by 2015
CO: 10% by 2015
NY: 24% by 2013
IL: 8% by 2013
NJ: 22.5% by 2021
PA: 18%¹ by 2020
*MD: 7.5% by 2019
AZ: 15% by 2025
*NM: 10% by 2011
*DE: 10% by 2019
DC: 11% by 2022
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
HI: 20% by 2020
State RPS
State Goal
* Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewables
PA: 8% Tier I (renewables)
Solar water
heating eligible
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Solar & Distributed Generation
Provisions in RPS Policies
WA: double credit for DG
NY: 0.1542% customer-sited by 2013
NV: 1% solar by 2015;
2.4 to 2.45 multiplier for PV
NJ: 2.12% solar electric by 2021
PA: 0.5% solar PV by 2020
CA: 3,000 MW or more via
SB1 & Million solar roofs
CO: 0.4% solar electric by 2015
DE: triple credit for solar electric
MD: double credit for solar electric
DC: 0.386% solar electric by 2022
AZ: 4.5% DG by 2025
NM: triple credit for solar electric
TX: 500 MW non-wind
DG: Distributed Generation
Solar water heating counts
towards solar set-aside
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Plug-in Hybrids:
Can they move rapidly to scale?
Electricity Demand (additional) to supply
a PHEV fleet in CA
Lemoine, Farrell & Kammen, Env. Research Letters (2008)
14
Billion gallons per year
12
• Fuels are traditional substances
• Success depends on subsidies and mandates
• Small, but profitable and growing rapidly
Fuel Ethanol Production (left axis)
Petroleum Price (right axis)
$70
$60
10
$50
8
$40
6
$30
4
$20
2
$10
1960Renewable
1970
1980
1990
and
Appropriate
$0
2000 Laboratory
2010
Energy
$ per gallon
Today’s
Biofuel
Industry
• Feedstocks largely food commodities
Sources: US EIA, BP, RFA
- rael.berkeley.edu
An Alternative Fuel is Not Necessarily a
Low-Carbon Fuel, but it can be
(California Executive Order S-7-01)
60
s)
Sa
nd
n
or
)
G
or
n
ha
2020 standard
om
)
lu
el
n
C
or
Et
ha
no
l(
l(
C
no
ha
Et
C
D
C
lo
se
om
Bi
l(
C
no
ha
Et
0
C
C
as
lu
el
ha
Et
10
s
lo
no
l(
se
)
C
Bi
or
D
)
n
od
ie
Bi
se
Et
l
ha
as
no
s)
l(
C
Et
20
2007 standard
N
no
Et
h
l(
To
an
da
ol
y)
(C
e
in
ol
as
G
FT
(C
oa
C
lC
C
oa
l)
D
)
ar
(T
e
in
ol
as
30
G
lbs CO2/gal gasoline equivalent
40
G
as
ol
in
e
(S
ha
le
)
50
FT
(C
oa
l)
FT (Coal)
Gasoline (Shale)
Gasoline (Tar Sands)
FT (Coal CCD)
Gasoline
Ethanol (Corn Coal)
Ethanol (Today)
Ethanol (Corn NG)
Biodiesel
Ethanol (Corn Biomass)
Ethanol (Cellulose)
Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD)
Ethanol (Cellulose CCD)
1
-10
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Land use, GHG emissions, and ‘carbon debt’
Fargione, et
al, Science,
Feb 8, 2008
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Illness Reduction Observed in Kenya
(ARI = acute respiratory infection)
Ezzati and Kammen, The Lancet, 2001
0.15
Ceramic Wood Stoves
3-Stone Fire
Probability (ARI)
Charcoal
All ARI
0.1
0.05
ALRI,
Lower respiratory
Infections only
0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Average Daily Exposure (g / m3)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Rising energy prices have made charcoal the most
economical cooking option
Monthly Cooking Cost
(1994 TSh/month)
Monthly Cooking Cost: Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: 1990 and 2004
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2004
2004
lowest cost option (1990)
2004
lowest cost option (2004)
1990
1990
1990
1990
2004
2004
1990
0
Charcoal
(improved)
Charcoal
(unimproved)
Electricity
LPG
Kerosene
Data Source: Hosier, R.H. and W. Kipondya, Urban household energy use in Tanzania. Energy Policy, 1993. May: p. 454-473.
and Appropriate
Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
(1990); R.Renewable
Ghanadan, unpublished
(2004)
Ethanol can Displace Gasoline Consumption
in Africa (N. Dargouth and Kammen, in prep.)
• Using only post-harvest crop
losses as inputs (up to 50 percent
of yields), biofuels can play a
significant role
• Implications for poverty
alleviation, job creation, urban
health, and foreign currency
savings
• Metrics for ecological and
cultural sustainability must be
part of the planning process
Source: FAO/IIASA 2002, EIA 2007, ICRISAT 2007
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA
BERKELEY
REPORT OF THE
RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY
LABORATORY
Putting Renewables to Work:
How Many Jobs Can the
Clean Energy Industry
Generate?
by
Daniel M. Kammen
Kamal Kapadia
Matthias Fripp
of the
Energy and Resources Group &
the Goldman School of Public Policy
Study reviews:
• 13 studies of
job creation
• 3 - 5 times
More jobs per
dollar invested
in the
renewables
sector than in
fossil fuels
APRIL 13, 2004
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/eeworkshop/CPUC-new/summit.html
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Green Collar Job Creation
Federal + state RPS yields
+348,000 jobs in 2025
350
120
Green jobs created
(thousands of person years)
400
100
Other 18 states
with an RPS
Nevada
80
Illinois
60
300
250
200
Texas
New York
40
150
Pennsylvania
20
100
50
California
-
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable energy generated (TWh)
plus Federal RPS
140
Green job creation
More renewables = more jobs
Jobs
(total person-yrs/TWh)
Employment Components
Equipment
lifetime
(years)
Capacity
Factor
Construction,
Manufacturing
and Installation
(person-yr/MWp)
Operation and
Maintenance
(jobs/MWp)
140
25
21%
32
0.3
0
1
660
550
25
21%
30
1.0
0
3
Wind 1
50
30
25
35%
4
0.1
0
1
Wind 2
290
30
25
35%
22
0.1
0
2
Biomass - high estimate
50
280
25
85%
9
0.4
220
1
Biomass - low estimate
50
40
25
85%
9
0.04
40
1
Coal
30
80
40
80%
9
0.2
60
1
Gas
30
80
40
85%
9
0.1
70
4
Energy Technology
Construction,
Manufacturing,
Installation
O&M and
fuel
processing
PV 1
710
PV 2
Fuel extraction Source of
and
Numbers
processing
(personyrs/TWh)
Sources
[1] REPP, 2001
[2] EWEA/Green-peace, 2003
[3] Greenpeace, 2001
[4] Kammen, from REPP, 2001; CALPIRG, 2003; BLS, 2004
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
自足，
则中国基础设施和自然资源的需求将大幅降低
If SuperBlocks could be self-sufficient with respect to
energy, water and waste, demand on China’s
infrastructure and natural resources could be
significantly reduced
能源
energy
用水
water
垃圾
生态街区
EcoBlock
waste
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
全面系统思考
Whole Systems Thinking
太阳
风力
电力
电力
电力
食物
残渣
发电厂
城市
饮用水
供应
雨水
紫外线消毒
厌氧
消化
池
沉淀池沉淀池
先进的
雨水
处理
人造湿地
化粪池
活机器
绿色废物
污泥
食物残渣
反渗透
绿色
污泥和食物
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Federal R&D Investments, 1955 - 2004
R&D (billion 2002$s)
120
100
80
Defense
Space
Health
Energy
General Science
Other
60
40
20
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Margolis & Kammen, Science, 1999
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
United States’ Public and Private Sector Energy
Research and Development Spending
R&D (2002 $b)
8
6
Public energy R&D
Private energy R&D
4
2
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Kammen and Nemet (2005)
“Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88.
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Patents and R&D Funding Correlated
Kammen and Nemet (2005)
“Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88.
And Nemet, dissertation, 2007
VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
Total Venture Capital Investment in Energy Technology
California and the U.S.
1996-2006
$2,500
Millions of Dollars ($2006 Inflation Adjusted)
2006 VC
Investment
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
CA
MA
CO
MD
OH
IA
WA
IL
NJ
TX
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2006 Share
of Total US
Investment
884
223
149
140
125
100
95
64
51
49
36%
9%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
US
$500
CA
$1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Nth Power
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
The Cost of Nuclear Power from the U. S. Civilian Reactor Fleet
k
Shoreham
0.14
W
0.13
Clinton
k
G
0.12
Lifetime levelized electricity cost (2004$ per kWh)
Comanche Pk 1
Fermi
0.11
e
]]
River Bend
kW
0.10
Rancho Seco
W
]
0.09
^
We ]
Comanche Pk. 2
0.08
0.07
]
W
0.06
0.05
Arkansas 1
0.04
fk
k WA ]
ek
AA] ] ^
e^]
^ e ^ G^
eW
e Ge ^ f
Wk WW
kkf
e Ge
^f^
W]
We WWWW
0.01
Hope Creek
Watts Bar 1
Millstone 3
Seabrook 1
Columbia
Perry
Diablo Canyon 1
South Texas 2
Shearon Harris South Texas 1
Vogtle 2
Diablo Canyon 2
Susquehanna 1
WW]
eW
Boiling Water Reactor
Pressurized Water Reactor
Fitzpatrick
Oconee 3
Turkey Pt 4
Surry 2
Turkey Pt 3
Surry 1
Oconee 2
Oconee 1
0.02
^^]
Beaver Valley 2
Reactor Type
Af
f f e Ae
0.03
] ^^ ^
]
fW
e WWW
W
] W^ ] W
W
Nine Mile Pt 2
Reactor Cohort
1:
2:
W
3:
f 4:
^
5:
G 6:
k 7:
]
8:
A
e
Westinghouse <700 MW
Westinghouse 700–1000 MW
Westinghouse >1000 MW
Babcock & Wilcox
Combustion Engineering
GE <700 MW
GE 700–1000 MW
GE > 1000 MW
0.00
0
25
50
Cost Rank
75
100
Hultman, Koomey & Kammen (2007) ES&T
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
http://www.coolcalifornia.org AND http://bie.berkeley.edu
CH4  H2S separation, then H2 & elemental sulfur separation
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
CO2 Emission Reduction Effects by Technology
(550ppm)
CO2 emissions and reductions/storages (M -C)
25000
CO2 emissions in
reference case
20000
Forestation
Energy conservation
Fuel switching
Biomass
Solar
15000
Wind
Hydro, geothermal
Nuclear
10000
ECBM
Sea absorptions
Injection into aquifers
5000
Net CO2 emissions
(550ppm)
Injection into abandoned gas well
EOR
Emissions after reductions
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Summary of GHG Emissions for Typical U.S. Household
(LEAPS Results) 50 Metric tons of CO2 equivalent gases
56%
44%
public trans.
airlines
Indirect
Direct
Auto services
50
Auto
manufacturing
45
40
Gasoline
public trans.
Air travel
other fuels
natural gas
35
electricity
water & sewage
30
Financing
25
Construction
20
Other fuels
15
Natural
gas
Gasoline
Electricity
10
cereals
Alcohol & tobacco
5
Dairy
Snack food
0
Fruit & veg.
Eating out
Total
furniture.
cleaning supplies.
entertainment.
Household equip.
Meat
Clothing
education
giving
healthcare
Renewable
Transportation
and Appropriate
Energy
- rael.berkeley.edu
Housing
FoodLaboratory Goods
Services
Energy Biosciences Institute
University of California, Berkeley
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
kWh/person
14,000
12,000
Savings:
Energy, $, carbon
10,000
Savings possible equal to
total U. S. energy imports
8,000
6,000
4,000
US w/out Cal and NY
US without Cal
United States
New York
California
2,000
Danish
average
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
68
19
66
19
64
19
62
19
19
60
-
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu