Support for RPP2 Housing Futures
Review & Proposals
R Emmanuel, K Baker, M Phillipson
GCU
Feb 01, 2012
Outline




Background issues
Review of RPP1 (devolved/non-devolved)
General concerns
Approaches for future (2022-2030 & beyond)
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
2
Background
Energy use in homes, housing stock
Key UK-wide trends

Average household energy use has also fallen in real
terms from 22,235 to 18,639 kWh from 1970 to 2009,
with the levelling off observed since 1995
 Improvements in the Building Regulations, leading to a
consistent increase in SAP ratings
 Promotion and uptake of common energy efficiency
measures
 The changing climate – warmer winters
 Increase in occupants' expectations of thermal comfort,
 Rapid and sustained rise in energy demand for appliances
and consumer technology
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
4
Key UK-wide trends . . .

Other trends
 Decline in energy use for water heating and cooking,
related to the switch to gas
 Ageing population
 Ageing housing stock and levels of maintenance
 Rapid increase in the number of employees working from
home
 Changes in the tenure mix – recent growth in the (less
energy efficient) privately-rented sector is a particular
problem
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
5
Scottish Housing Stock
Age of
dwelling
Pre-1919
1919 –
1944
1945 –
1964
1965 –
1982
Post-1982
ALL
Fraction
of
national
total
19%
14%
Detached
Type of dwelling (tonnes/yr)
SemiTerra- Tenedetached ced
ment
Other
flats
17.5
15.7
11.2
8.1
9.5
6.1
5.2
4.2
8.8
4.4
Emission
by Age of
dwelling
(tonnes/yr)
9.9
7.0
22%
12.4
6.7
5.3
3.9
4.3
5.7
23%
9.2
6.0
5.0
4.2
3.9
5.9
22%
100%
7.5
11.0
4.5
7.0
4.0
5.6
3.3
4.2
3.1
4.8
5.2
6.6
Mean CO2 emissions (tonnes /yr) in dwellings in Scotland
Source: SHCS, 2011
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
6
RPP1 landscape
Type
Fabric
Policies
Smart meter
CERT
CESP
EAP
HIS / UHIS
Energy Stds. 2007/2010
RHI
Proposals
Fuel poverty & insulation
Domestic energy std 2013
Regulations en. efficiency
ESSAC
Local Housing Strategies
LESA
EPBD
Tolerable Std.
Reduce emission from Social
Housing
Loans to landlords
HSCCC
CCF
Green Deal
ECO
Baker et al., 2011
Grid decarbonisation
Application
New build
Existing
Responsibility
Devolved
Nondevolved
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
RPP2: Housing Futures
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
7
Review of RPP1
Devolved Issues
Quality & performance of existing housing

Insulation without compromising IAQ/Ventilation
provision
 Thermal comfort improvement in under-heated housing
could have a positive health impact, particularly amongst
elderly occupants
 Reduction in dampness problems or resultant mould
issues could benefit in terms of reduced risk of
respiratory problems
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
9
EAP/HIS/UHIS

‘The best UK exemplar in terms of providing both a
comprehensive approach ... and to linking the fourth level
of assistance to the energy inefficiency of the home.’
(Boardman, 2010)


In its first year the EAP along with HIS achieved the
installation of 11,502 new heating systems and 26,110
measures, at a cost of £65.9 million
Effectiveness heavily dependent on retaining the
engagement of households from stage to stage
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
10
EAP/HIS/UHIS

Main problems . . .



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Supply not being able to meet demand, particularly in rural
areas
Contradiction between driving energy efficiency and reducing
fuel poverty
Accessing of CERT for part of the funding (for EAP/HIS) may be
risky in the long term
However, given the popularity and demand, expanding
these make sense
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
11
Other devolved issues


Scottish New Build Domestic Energy Stds. 2007-2013
Problems particular to housing in exposed locations


Problems particular to tenure


Addressing the urban / rural divide
Triggering energy efficient renovation
Scottish New Build Domestic Energy Stds. 2013-2022

Is net zero carbon by 2016/17 still valid?
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
12
Review of RPP1
Non-devolved Issues
Key issues




EPBD and EPCs
CERT and CESP
FiTs
Green Deal / ECO
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
14
EPBD and EPCs


Consultation on EPBD recast now closed
No evidence that EPCs are driving up demand for energy
efficient buildings (or higher rentals)


Needs awareness-raising and education - current proposals will
aid this
Emphasis on giving consumers the best information, in
the best format, at the best time
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
15
CERT and CESP
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CERT
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
CESP
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Issue of bias towards energy efficiency over microgen
Support recommendations in RPP1 sections 4.56 to 4.58
Problems with complexity
Take up rate disproportionately low in Scotland (and London)
Appears less successful with the fuel poor
Much useful evidence for informing future work
Future initiatives should have wider scopes of measures
and maximise delivering packages of intervention
measures
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
16
FiTs


Have led to 100% growth in capacity in Scotland, but
360% in England and Wales
Marked difference in measures installed




Scotland: wind and hydro; E&W: solar
Reflects greater take up in rural areas
Need to increase take up in urban and fuel poor areas
Problem of signals from Westminster to the industry and
investors
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
17
Green Deal and ECO


Response to proposals given in the full report
Causes for concern:





For households not connected to the gas grid there will be "no additional
incentive" for heat pumps or low carbon heat over more traditional approaches
(p. 74)
The proposals "do not intend to take account of “active comfort taking” in the
savings estimates as the assessment is based on the physical performance of the
building“ (p. 82)
"We do not propose to guarantee that the charge will be fully offset by the
savings. This would be extremely difficult to either implement or enforce.
However, there is nothing to stop organisations going further and guaranteeing
that their measures will save customers money" (p. 106)
Support for energy efficiency, renewables and tackling fuel poverty should
not be allowed to fall following the retirement of CERT
Any schemes should not ultimately lead to higher bills for the poor
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
18
General concerns
Cost vs. CO2 savings
4,000
1982 TFH - Combined
3,500
1982 TFH - WA GSHP
CO2 Savings (kg/year)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1964-82 CWH - Combined
1,500
1964-82 CWH - Rep boiler
1,000
1919 SF - Combined
1982 TFH - Loft insl
1982 TFH - Solar PV
1919 SF - Rep boiler
500
1919 SF - 100% LEL
1982 TFH 100% LEL0
0
1964-82
CWH - Loft insl
2,000
1919 SF - Int wall insl
4,000
6,000
1964-82 CWH - Solar PV
8,000
10,000
12,000
Installation Cost (£)
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Note: SF – Solid Wall Flat; CWH – Cavity Wall House; TFH – Timber Frame House
WA GSHP – Warm Air Ground Source Heat Pump; Combined = insulation + lighting + boiler replacement + GSHP
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
20
Micro/distributed generation
Supply Limits in Scotland
Technology
Number
Solar PV
Micro-CHP
Wind
Micro-Hydro
Solar Thermal
Biomass
GSHP
ASHP
95
16-81
410
21
10,700-11,100
196
1,057
96
Peak Capacity1
(kW)
414
561
771
262
22,400-23,400
3,920
6,871
416
Energy (MWh/yr)
Date of Source2
352
676
1,148
14,400-15,000
3,360
18,091
1,643
Aug 2008
Dec 2006
Dec 2007
Aug 2008
Jul 2008
Aug 2008
Aug 2008
Aug 2008
Source: Element Energy, 2008
Installed micro- and distributed-generation in Scotland
2007 shares in
generation
Wave
Tidal
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Nuclear
CCGT
Pulverised fuel
Hydroelectric
Biomass
Pulverised fuel with CCS
CCGT with CCS
0
5.5
0
25.6
26.2
28.7
12.2
1.8
-
Supply limits in 2020
Maximum
0
0
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Minimum
10.5
5
35
15
20
25
35
15
5
35
25
Source: Allan et al., 2011
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
21
Renewables and distributed generation

Fundamental need for new infrastructure




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




New developments
New build
Retrofitted
Networks for microgeneration
Networks for renewable heat
Low voltage networks
In the long term – the Supergrid
Ownership
Technological mix
How to bridge the demand gap?
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
22
Others

Modelled performance vs. Post Occupancy Evaluation



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Actual insulation performance is often less than expected
(poor workmanship, unrealistic assumptions about stock . . .)
Occupant behaviour (‘take back’)
Model limitations
Behaviour change, adaptation and community
empowerment
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

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Smart meters
Energy efficiency advice services
Using ‘what works’ in behaviour change
Engaging communities
Funding, monitoring and evaluating
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
23
Approaches for the future
2022-2030 & beyond
Our recommendations



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Accelerate the fabric improvement programmes,
especially covering Hard-to-Treat (HtT)
Decarbonise the grid at community scale
Use smart meters for better energy management
Enable better understanding of and support for changing
attitudes and behaviour, and better adaptation to change
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
25
HtT Properties

Not all buildings are suitable for cavity wall insulation

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Internal insulation




Those without cavity wall
Conventional cavity wall with high exposure
Consequence of cavity fill due to concerns re. cavity
Need to consider electrical sockets / service penetrations
Interstitial condensation risk
Reduction in internal space dimensions
Rendered external wall insulation and insulated overcladding

Generally more expensive option
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
26
HtT Properties . . .


Insulate and ventilate correctly
External insulation






Changing the appearance of properties (positive for urban
regeneration)
Covering over existing thermal bridges
Improving the weather tightness of buildings
Backcourt insulation
Stairwell insulation
Concentrate on ‘fuel hungry’ households
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
27
Decarbonise the grid



Renewable heat is as much a priority as renewable
electricity
Community scale solutions are cost and carbon effective
To sell micro-generation, sell efficiency first




Tighter regulations
Changes to planning system
Heat mapping / exemplar DH solutions / pilot schemes
Longer term – significant potential for anaerobic digestion
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
28
Decarbonise the grid: barriers
CERT
Economic
Investment riska
Cost—capital and
operationalb
Long pay-back periodc
Lack of value to stakeholdersd
Lack of customer demand
green energy/DRES
Organisation
Industrial inertia(housebuilding and energy
industries)e
Lack of ESCOs
Access to grid
Information
Lack of accreditation system
for products and service
providers
Knowledge transfer
Buy
Back
X
RO
X
X
LCBP
X
FIT
2016 Zero
Carbon
Target
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Plan
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
CSH
X
Source: Williams, 2010.
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
29
Smart meters for effective energy mgmt.


Prioritisation of research and development of intelligent
energy management systems ('smart' smart meters) to
best facilitate their integration into both the built
environment and human lifestyles
Capitalising on the cumulative benefits of smart meter
technologies that have uses beyond energy saving



Remote control of building services and appliances
Bridging gaps between the physical and social sciences to solve
problems relating to human factors
Addressing public concerns over the collection and use of
energy data
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
30
Behaviour & attitudinal change priorities



Adaptive behaviours favour greater thermal comfort over
lower energy use
Greater control over indoor environments should result in
more optimal energy use, which aids energy efficiency
Adopting more energy efficient behaviours will reduce
household energy consumption



But these behaviours are complex, and are the products of
underlying attitudes and behaviours
Understand ‘what works’ and use a bigger toolbox
Communities have key roles

Normalising (and delivering?) behaviour / lifestyle change
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
31
References:

Allan G, Eromenko I, McGregor P, Swales K. 2011. The regional electricity generation mix in
Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies, Energy Policy, 39,
pp. 6–22

Baker K, Emmanuel R, Phillipson M. 2011. Final Report: Support for RPP2 Housing Futures.
CXC1109-01. Report submitted to Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental
Research (SNIFFER) (on behalf of ClimateXChange). Available at: www.climatexchange.org.uk

Element Energy, 2008. Numbers of Microgeneration Units Installed in England, Wales,
Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Report to BERR. Available at:
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file49151.pdf

SHCS 2011. Scottish House Condition Survey: Key Findings 2010. Available at:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/11/23172215/0

Williams J. 2010. The deployment of decentralised energy systems as part of the housing
growth programme in the UK, Energy Policy, 38, pp. 7604–7613
Baker et al., 2011
RPP2: Housing Futures
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