CAMPAIGNS
& ELECTIONS
CHAPTERS 9 & 10
NOMINATIONS
NOMINATIONS


Official endorsement of the party
To gain a party nomination requires
risk-taking & the 3 M’s”



money, media attention, momentum
Goal of the nomination game is to
win support of the majority of
delegates to a party convention
National party conventions


Supreme Power within each party
Function: nominate P & VP & write
platform
PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION



Not addressed by the Constitution
So….parties devised national
convention concept & has been in
use since 1832
 Party out of power has first
convention
 Party in power (P’s party) has
last convention
State laws & party rules determine
how each state selects delegates to
the conventions
 ¾ of states select by primaries
 Rest by party caucus or
convention
Primaries/caucuses video
CAUCUS SYSTEMS




Originally, all states used a caucus of
state party leaders to select delegates
to national convention
Caucuses today open to all
voters registered with a party
Iowa has first caucus
Caucuses organized in a pyramid
system:
Local party caucus chooses delegates to
a district party meeting
 District choose delegates to state
 State caucus chooses delegates to the
national convention

Iowa Caucus



Residents of Iowa meet in precinct caucuses in
all of Iowa's 1,774 precincts and elect delegates
to the corresponding county conventions.
There are ninety-nine counties in Iowa, and thus
there are ninety-nine conventions.
These county conventions then select delegates
for Iowa's state convention, which eventually
chooses the delegates for the national
presidential nominating conventions.
Iowa




Race
Iowa
U.S. Population
White
93%
78%
Black
3.1%
13.1%
Latino
5.2%
16.7%
The Iowa caucuses are noteworthy for the amount of media
attention they receive during U.S. presidential election
years.
Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been the first major
electoral event of the nominating process for President .
Although only about 1% of the nation's delegates are chosen
by the Iowa State Convention, the Iowa caucuses have
served as an early indication of which candidates for
president might win the nomination of their political party
at that party's national convention, and which ones could
drop out for lack of support.
What criticism could be made about the level of impact that
this caucus has?
Dean Scream
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES:



Primaries were promoted in 20th
century to take nominations out
of hands of party bosses
They are basically elimination contests
NH is first (since 1940) with January date
 Only 3 times since ’52 has anyone lost NH &
won the nomination of their party (Bill
Clinton, George W. Bush & Barack Obama)
 It’s all about IMAGE
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES:

Parties match up # of delegates a candidate
gets based on how candidate did in primary




The actual delegates are chosen later by
Ds require “proportional” allocation
Rs give states discretion (some winner take all;
some proportional)
Democrats began “superdelegates” in ’84


Slots set aside for public officeholders (Governors,
Senators, etc.) & party officials (15%)
 unpledged delegates
Hoping to get element of “peer review” by people
familiar with the candidates
Frontloading of
Primaries:


Major trend with
primaries – states began
scheduling them earlier
& earlier
So much “frontloading”
of primaries that in
2000, 2/3 of both D & R
delegates were chosen
within 6 weeks of NH
primary
Darn! We won’t graduate in time for Electoral College.
Super Tuesday



March 6, 2012
Alaska (c), Georgia (p), Idaho (c),
Massachusetts (p), N. Dakota (c),
Ohio (p), Oklahoma (p),
Tennessee (p), Vermont (p),
Virginia (p)
Why so significant?

Florida’s presidential primary takes
place January 31.
Primary contenders 2012
Primary/Caucus System:
Advantages



PEOPLE’S CHOICE! Primaries give voters a large
role in choosing a party’s presidential candidate.
The long primary season gives voters time to
get to know the candidates…….too long?
Candidates can learn more about what voters
want and what they’ll support once a president
is elected.
CRITICISMS OF
PRIMARY &
CAUCUS
SYSTEM





What are the criticisms?
Disproportionate amount of attention goes to early
caucuses & primaries
Money plays too big a role & running for P has
become a full time job
Participation is low and is not representative of
voting population
 Generally about 20% participation
 Only the more educated, affluent vote in primaries
Give too much power to the media!
NATIONAL & REGIONAL PRIMARY PROPOSALS



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
NATIONAL:
All nation votes in primary
election at same time
Would be more simple &
direct
Length & cost of campaign
reduced
No state would have higher
impact
Critics argue:
 Would require a runoff
 Too much $
 Too much media




REGIONAL:
Different regions of
country would vote
on different weeks
Rotate order
Problem: which
region gets to go
first
National Convention:


Original purpose: nominate candidates
But … little doubt now by the convention
as to who will get nomination


Major purpose today – party rally!



Really just a media event
Put party in best light
Function is twofold:



Last time for doubt – ’76 (Ford prevailed over
Ronald Reagan by 1187 votes to 1070)
officially nominate P & VP
adopt a “PLATFORM”
Platform consists of “PLANKS”


Only women ever nominated?
Only minorities ever nominated?
THE CAMPAIGN GAME


TECHNOLOGY RULES!
Television changes?



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COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY



The “horse race” not the issues
Kennedy – Nixon Debate, 1960
Turning point for campaigns!
Debates usually an advantage only
to challenger; incumbent or
frontrunner runs risk of gaffe
Internet web sites & fundraising
Used for Direct Mailings
 Target specific interests
 Gets millions to contribute
billions
Media attention determined by
how candidates use their media
budget (over half for TV) and
free time they get
THE CAMPAIGN GAME
THE CAMPAIGN GAME
The Living Room
Campaign
FEDERAL ELECTION
CAMPAIGN ACT (FECA), 1974





Created because of:
 Increase in cost of campaigning due to television
 Illegal campaign contributions exposed by
Watergate
Goals:
 Tighten reporting requirements for contributions
 Limit overall expenditures for individuals & groups
 Public funding-P primaries, elections, conventions
Presidential primaries partly funded with public
money
Presidential general elections: all public money
unless candidate chooses not to accept
Congressional elections: all private money
FEDERAL ELECTION
CAMPAIGN ACT (FECA), 1974



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Created FEC to administer & enforce –
6 bipartisan members
Created Presidential Election Campaign Fund
Provides partial financing for P primaries
 IF candidates raise $5,000 in at least 20 states,
can get matching funds from U.S. gov’t for
contributions of up to $250 – limits
Provides full public financing for P general elections



Fixed amount - $75 million, 2004; $54 million 2012
Required financial disclosure of contributions &
spending
Limited contributions
 Individuals - $1,000 (changed by McCain-Feingold
in ’02 - $2,000 – now set at $2600)

70s reforms encouraged spread



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About 1000 by 1976
Any interest group, corporation,
union, etc. can form its own PAC
 Have to register with FEC as a PAC
 Contribution limits - $5,000/candidate
 More open way for interest groups and
corporations and unions to contribute
 Expenditures have to be reported – over 1
billion spent in 2009-10
Trend is a proliferation in PACs – over 4,600
What types of elections does most PAC $ go to?
And PACs give mostly to incumbents - WHY?

Buckley v. Valeo, 1976




Violation of free speech to restrict amounts people contribute to
their own campaign
Perot, ’92-$60 million; Kerry, ’04-$7 million, Romney $35 MM
No restrictions allowed on groups so long as they were
independent of any official election campaigns. Gave rise to a
profusion of PACs.
Soft Money amendment to FECA in 1979


Loopholes to FECA
$ for party expenses at grass-roots level (as opposed to
individual campaign) for voter registration drives, distribution
of campaign literature, etc. was not subject to contribution
limits.
McCAIN-FEINGOLD ACT, 2002 -BCRA



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Banned soft money contributions
Increased individual contributions to $2,000 (from $1,000)
Barred “issue ads” within 60 days of general election if they
refer to federal candidate & are NOT funded through PACs
(which are regulated)
Now hear candidate’s voice – “I’m … and I approve this ad.”
A NEW LOOPHOLE: ISSUE ADVOCACY
Independent Expenditures
& 527 GROUPS



This loophole came after soft $ banned
Named after section of federal tax code
Independent groups that do not “directly seek the
election of a particular candidate”
 They advocate ISSUES, not CANDIDATES.


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No limits on contributions if political messages don’t directly
endorse candidates with “vote for” or “vote against”…
 These issue ads can’t be broadcast in the last 30 days before a
primary or 60 days before a general election
$540 million spent by 527 groups in 2010
2004 – anti-Kerry group: Swift Boat Veterans for Truth
2004 – anti-Bush group: MoveOn.org
 Campaign Ads 2004 - 2012
The Latest
Loophole –
SuperPacs!



Super PAC is a catchy term for a political action
committee that can accept unlimited contributions
from individuals and corporations to spend
supporting a candidate as long as its efforts are not
coordinated with the candidate’s own campaign.
Individuals, corporations, unions, and interest
groups can give unlimited amounts to Super Pacs.
$ donated does have to be reported to FEC though
(contrary to 527 groups)






Citizens United v. Federal
Election Commission, 2010
U.S. Supreme Court decision
upheld Super Pacs
Unlimited campaign advertising
allowed so long as it’s not
coordinated with the campaign
Even restriction against using
direct language (“vote for”) was
lifted.
1st Am. prohibits gov’t from
limiting independent spending for
political purposes by corporations
and unions.
A 5–4 decision.
Majority: Kennedy, Roberts, Scalia, Alito, Thomas
SUPERPACS!
Super PACs can raise unlimited sums of money from corporations, labor
unions, individuals & associations, but must disclose them to the FEC.
Who can create a SuperPac?
IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNS

3 MAJOR EFFECTS
ON VOTERS:
1.
2.
3.

Reinforcement
Activation
Conversion (least
impact)
Selective perception
of voters weakens
the effect of
campaigns

meaning?
3 Types of Elections:
1.
2.
3.
Primaries
General Elections
Policy Question Elections

Two methods for getting on a state ballot in policy
question elections:

Initiative – voters “initiate” law


Referendum – voters ratifying laws



Voters get petitions to place legislative measures
and/or constitutional amendments directly on ballot
Put on ballots due to strong opinion polls showing voters
want something the legislature has not done
OR, voters rejecting a measure passed by state legislature;
tax increases may require a referendum
Initiatives & Referendums = direct democracy!
Initiatives in Florida

Florida's constitution of 1968 allows citizens to amend the
constitution by initiative; does not apply to state statutes.
Most amendments have been placed on the ballot by the
legislature -- of the 110 amendments approved through
2006, 22 were initiatives and 88 were legislative measures.


In 2000, environmentalists won a major victory with passage of an
initiative mandating creation of a high-speed rail system and in 2002
voters approved a constitutional amendment guaranteeing a minimum
living space for pregnant pigs, an amendment that was ridiculed by
some officials as trivializing the constitution.
In 2006 Florida began requiring a 60 percent affirmative vote
to approve initiated constitutional amendments. With the
passage of the 60% majority amendment, Florida became
one of only two states in the nation to require a
supermajority for constitutional amendments, and the only
initiative state with such a requirement.
VOTING IN AMERICA
REASONS PEOPLE DON’T



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As the right to vote
has been extended,
fewer do
Noncitizens cannot
vote (by state law)
Felons cannot vote in
FL, KY, and VA
#1 reason for not
voting: can’t take
time off of work or
school
REASONS PEOPLE DO



Sense of political
efficacy
 Those who believe
ordinary people can
influence
government
Policy approach
 those who see a
difference in policy
between the 2
parties vote
Sense of civic duty


U.S. uses the Austrialian ballot system
for voting – i.e., a secret ballot
Who controls the types of secret
ballots used?



STATES
Many different forms: electronic
touch-screens, fill-in-the arrow,
punch, etc.
Oregon is the only
state that uses a
mail-only ballot –
saves $$$$
VOTER
REGISTRATION

Purpose:


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to prevent corruption
associated with stuffing ballot boxes
STATES set registration procedures
FL – can vote if registered 29 days
before the election
Motor Voter Act of 1993/6 allows
voters to register when getting
driver’s licenses

Registration increased; turnout did NOT
VOTERS & TURNOUT


Reasons turnout lower in U.S .
than elsewhere:
 Required to register
 Vote A LOT more often than other nations
 Some nations give holidays on voting day
Characteristics of those who DO vote:
 Socio-economic Class: High education, income

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The most important factor in who will vote
Race: White BUT minorities with high education
& income vote even more
Gender: Women
Marital Status: Married
Region: North more than South
Employment: Gov’t employees, union workers
HOW AMERICANS VOTE

Mandate Theory:


Winners of election have mandate
from people to carry out campaign promises
Three elements of voters’ decisions:
 Party identification


Evaluations of candidates

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Single best predictor through 1950s; why not now?
Look for integrity, reliability, competence, decisiveness
Manipulated by media
Policy Voting - match between voter’s and
candidate’s/party’s policy positions
Choices based on voter’s own issue preferences
 Problem: candidates tend to be ambiguous

ELECTORAL VOTES BY STATE
Solid Republican 151
Solid Democrat 186
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Each State has as many
electoral votes as it has U.S.
Senators and Representatives.
NOVEMBER
Voters go to polls in the general
election & vote for P & VP
(popular vote);
But, are actually choosing a
slate of electors chosen by
each political party.
The candidate who gets the most popular votes in a
state gets ALL of that state’s electoral votes. It is a
winner-take-all system.
THE
ELECTORAL
COLLEGE
DECEMBER
Electors (representing only the
winning candidate) meet in their
state capitals and vote for P & VP.
Are electors required to vote the way the
state did?
A candidate needs a majority of the
electoral votes to win: 270 of the total
538 votes.
12th Amendment: If there is a tie (or no candidate
gets a majority) in the electoral votes, the House of
Representatives chooses the P from the top 3
candidates. Each state gets only one vote.
FL currently has 29 electoral votes.




JANUARY
Votes from the states are opened by the
President of the Senate and counted and P
& VP winners are officially declared.
January 20
the new President is sworn in.
So…what would be best campaign
strategies in our electoral college system?



focus on large, competitive and swing states
focus on an issue that could swing a state
pick your VP based on regional balance
Primary criticism of the Electoral College?
MAINE & NEBRASKA


Maine & Nebraska do not use the winner-takeall system in determining electoral votes.
These states use the Congressional District
Method:




Two of the state’s electoral votes go to the winner of
the popular vote in the state.
Then one votes goes to the popular vote winner in
each Congressional district (2 in Maine, 3 in
Nebraska) in their state.
Maine has used this method since the 1970’s
and Nebraska since the 90’s.
Neither state had ever split its electoral vote
until Nebraska did in 2008.


McCain won the state and 1st and 3rd districts
Obama got 1 vote from the 2nd district
MAINE & NEBRASKA


Maine & Nebraska do not use the winner-takeall system in determining electoral votes.
These states use the Congressional District
Method:




Two of the state’s electoral votes go to the winner of
the popular vote in the state.
Then one votes goes to the popular vote winner in
each Congressional district (2 in Maine, 3 in
Nebraska) in their state.
Maine has used this method since the 1970’s
and Nebraska since the 90’s.
Neither state had ever split its electoral vote
until Nebraska did in 2008.


McCain won the state and 1st and 3rd districts
Obama got 1 vote from the 2nd district
Problems with the Electoral College

May win the popular vote, but lose the electoral vote
Small states are overrepresented since every state
gets 2 Senators
Candidates tend to focus only on states with a close
contest
Gives extra clout to large states & urban areas
Works against third parties

PROPOSALS FOR REFORM:




1.
2.
3.
4.

The Direct Vote System
The District Election Plan
The Proportional Plan
The National Bonus Plan
Why hasn’t it been abolished?
THREE MAJOR ELECTIONS

ELECTION OF 1800



John Adams, Federalist,
loses his reelection bid to
Thomas Jefferson,
Republican
Significance:

FIRST PEACEFUL
TRANSFER OF POWER
VIA THE ELECTORAL
PROCESS (THE VOTE) IN
THE HISTORY OF THE
WORLD!
Election of 1896

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




Economics is issue – gold vs. silver
standard in monetary policy
80% VOTER TURNOUT!!
William McKinley, the Republican
“seasoned politician” vs.
William Jennings Bryan, the
Democratic “newcomer” (age 36).
A turning point in politics – future
is in cities, not agrarian votes
A victory for big business, big
cities, middle class values &
financial conservatism
Republicans take White House for
all but 8 of the next 36 years!
Thomas Nast
Creator of the Party
Symbols
ELECTION 2000
What a mess!
FLORIDA VOTE: BUSH 2,912,790
GORE 2,912,253
537 Votes!
Nader got 97,000 votes in FL
ELECTORAL VOTE:
BUSH (R) 277
GORE (D) 261
POPULAR BUSH 50,456,062 (47.45%)
VOTE:
GORE 59,996,582 (48.04%)
Bush v. Gore, 2000



Bush’s lead in FL over Gore was less than 1/10 of
1% - triggered an automatic recount under FL law
Palm Beach ballots led to lots of “no votes” with
ballots not properly punched through
FLORIDA SUPREME COURT




Gore sued in FL Supreme Court to get a manual recount
Bush opposed saying manual recount would be arbitrary,
subject to manipulation & differing standards
FL SUPREME COURT ruled with Gore
U.S. SUPREME COURT



Bush appealed
SUPREME COURT overruled FL Court (agreeing with Bush)
Held that even though recount was legal, same standards
for evaluation would have to be applied in all counties
(which was impossible) and that the recount could not
extend past the Dec. 12 date when FL electors would vote

Palm Beach County Butterfly Ballot:
The Chad Problem
Saturday Night Live!
Election 2000
http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/gore-state-of-the-union/229115