TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT
My Self
- 5 granted Patents.
- First time introduced the concept of
- Green Waiting Room at Railway Stations, and
- Green MLC gates in Indian Railways.
- Introduced first time in Indian Railways a method of
giving Training to staff of General Services Dept of BRC
Div. while they are in the division to improve their
technical skills related to new and existing technology
from basics to advance
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
History of Motorola, Inc. USA
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Motorola, Inc. USA
Points noted from History of Motorola:
1. September 25, 1928 – Galvin Manufacturing Corporation,
- A design for a battery eliminator
2. 1930s – first practical and affordable auto radio produce,
- independent auto distributors and dealers,
3. By 1936 – Police Cruiser, an AM radio
4. Over the years – new features added in the auto radio
market.
5. 1940s – established a research function,
- hired Daniel E. Noble, a pioneer in FM
communication.
- company name changed to Motorola, Inc.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Motorola, Inc. USA
Points noted from History of Motorola:
6. Continued its product development efforts - introduced
- the first handheld two-way radio,
- the first portable FM two-way radio.
7. 1940s – the decades also witnessed – the firm’s entry into
- the television business
- a product flop – an automatic push-button
gasoline car heater.
8. By 1949 – Noble had built a research facility.
9. 1950s - Continued product development:
- success in 3-amp power transmitter,
transistorized auto radio and a pager.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Motorola, Inc. USA
Points noted from History of Motorola:
9. 1950s - Continued product development:
- success in 3-amp power transmitter,
transistorized auto radio and a pager.
10. At the end of the decade, face competition from
overseas manufacturers.
11. 1960s – several Strategic moves by Motorola
- process development efforts continued,
- first to introduce – epitaxial method,
- pioneer several low-cost production method,
- several new products introduced like
- a Motorola transponder for Mariner II on its
flight to Venus
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Motorola, Inc. USA
Points noted from History of Motorola:
11. 1960s – several new products introduced like
- a Motorola transponder for Mariner II on its
flight to Venus,
- a fully transistorized portable two-way
radio,
- the Pageboy radio pager,
- first all transistor colour television sets.
- Second, enters into several strategic alliances,
- Third, began globalizing its operations.
12. 1967 – 1978 – set up plants in Australia, England,
Germany, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, and Puerto Rico.
13. Continued its strategic efforts for survival.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Motorola, Inc. USA
Learning points from the History of Motorola:
1. The firm continuously make decisions involving
technology;
2. These decisions often lie at the heart of the
firm’s competitive advantage and, in turn,
3. The value created by the business for their
survival and further development.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Motorola, Inc. USA
Its success depended critically on its
technology-related decisions:
- The choice of appropriate technologies;
- The divestiture of technologies whose time
had run out.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Motorola, Inc. USA
These decisions involve:
- Investing in programs to develop technologies for
commercial applications,
- The kind of technologies that are embodied in the
products marketed by the firm,
- The choice of technologies to deploy in its value
chain.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Motorola, Inc. USA
The decisions may also include the appropriate
mode of implementation:
- Whether the firm decides to implement the
decision by itself,
- In conjunction with others through strategic
alliances, or
- Through outright acquisition.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Motorola, Inc. USA
- In short, technology is the cornerstone of many
strategic decisions made by the firm.
- A firm’s choice of technologies influences its
current and future competitive position within
an industry.
- In short, the technology strategy of a firm is a
fundamental driver of its profitability.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Motorola, Inc. USA
The Technology Intelligence gathering
activities precede the development of
Technology Strategy.
Technology Management
An innovation or a new idea when it first appears is
not accepted immediately by consumers or
potential users. Indeed, many innovations fail
because they do not get adopted together. When
suuccessful, an innovation gets adopted over a
period of time. Difference types of users adopt the
innovation at different times. The late adopters
some times look to the earlier ones for information
when trying to decide whether the innovation will
be useful to them.
Technology Management
•
•
•
•
Identification (Forecasting/ Intelligence)
Selection (Technology Strategy/Planning)
Internal acquisition (R&D Management)
External acquisition (Technology Acquisitions and
Collaborations)
• Exploitation/Assimilation (Technology
Transfer/Utilization/Commercialization)
• Protection (Knowledge Management, R&D
Management)
• Learning (Knowledge Management)
Technology Management
In efffective Technology Management
A critical activity is learning about
Markets,
Customers and
Competitions.
Technology Management
Diffusion :
It is a process by which an innovation is
propageted through certain channels over time
among the units of a system.
Four Major Elements:
1. Innovation
2. Propagation
3. Time
4. System
Technology Management
Diffusion
Innovation:
From the point of view of a customer, a technical
solution is considered to be an innovation when it
is new or perceived as new by the individual or the
unit of adoption. It really matters little, so far as
human behaviour is concerned, whether or not an
idea is “objectivley new as measured by the lapse
of time since its use or discovery.”
Technology Management
Diffusion
Propagation:
Propagation refers to the spread of an innovation
beyond its inventor. Propagation is the result of a
decision to adopt an innovation by individual or a
firm. An innovation presents an uncertain situation
to an adopter, and hence the decieion to adopt is
to some extent influenced by the communication
process between the adopter and the individual
who has innovated.
Technology Management
Diffusion
Time:
The time dimension is involved in diffusion,
because it takes time for individuals or firms to
decide to adopt an innovation. Not all adopters
adopt an innovation at the same time.
Technology Management
Diffusion
System:
A system is a set of interlinked units that
participate in the diffusion process. The members
of units of a system may be individuals, informal
groups or organisations.
DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION CURVE
Technology Management
Diffusion
Immitation
Technology Management
Diffusion
When a firm innovators (e.g. develops a new
product), two different groups of players respond
to the innovation. One group, the customers,
makes decisions to adopt or not to adopt the
innovation. Diffusion refers to adoption decisions
of this kind.
Technology Management
Immitation
A second group of players, competitors, may
decide to copy the innovation and make their own
(new) products to compete with the innovating
firm. This is imitation.
Technology Management
S Curve of Diffusion
One facet of the dynamics of diffusion is the
manner in which the total number of adopters of
an innovation, individuals or firms, changes over
time.
A plot of the cummulative number of adopters
over time displays an S-shaped curve.
A plot of frequency of adoption of an innovation
over time displays a normal bell-shaped curve.
Technology Management
S Curve of Diffusion
S-shaped curve – It shows the number of individuals
adopting an innovation on a cumulative basis.
Bell-shaped curve – It shows the same data in terms
of the number of individuals each year.
Technology Management
S Curve of Diffusion
There are four major eras in the diffusion history of an
innovation:
1. Emergence characterized by a slow advance in the
beginning, suggesting that adoption proceeds slowly at
first when there are few adopters.
2. A rapid growth phase, when adoption rate accelerates
until half of the individuals in the system have adopted.
3. A slow growth phase, where the rate of growth declines,
but adoption continues.
4. Maturity, the final stage, where the diffusion almost
comes to a halt, either as a result of market saturation or
the introduction of a new product, process, or service
into the market replaces the existing innovation.
Technology Management
S-shaped and Bell-shaped curves
GROWTH WITHOUT STRATEGY
S curve of Technology Evolution
Although the initial development of a technology often
appears to be a random process, once a new technology
comes into existence, its evolution over time displays a
reasonably stable pattern. These stable patterns may be
described in terms of evolution of performance
Characteristic.
Performance Characteristic: It refers to a characteristic of
interest to the designer of a product or the user of a
specific technology.
S curve of Technology Evolution
Technology Evolution: It refers to the changes
in the Performance characteristics of a specific
technology over time.
S curve of Technology Evolution
Four major stages are
1. Emergence – When the technology has come into
existence but shows little improvement in its
performance characteristics;
2. Rapid improvement – When the performance
characteristics improves at an accelerating pace;
3. Declining improvement – When the pace of
improvement declines;
4. Maturity – When further improvements become very
difficult to achieve.
S curve of Technology Evolution
Maturity
Growth
Start
THERE ARE NO LIMITS TO
IMPROVEMENT
Lots of Growth Curves
Television
E-cash
Movies
Images
Mp3
Games
Web
Gopher, Archie
Streams
FTP
Email
Mag tape transfer
Remote resource sharing
Terminal access
Terminal linking
Growth In Many Fields
Technology Management
Market-Oriented Technology
Management develops fundamentals of –
- Technology life-cycles,
- Technology acquisition,
- Core technology management, and
- Technology policy.
Technology Management
Market Oriented Technology:
These principles enable managers to find,
acquire and develop technologies, add
value to them, and make a profit in the
environment of short life cycles and rapid
price reductions typical of the electronics,
semiconductor, and other globally
hypercompetitive industries.
Technology Management
Technology life-cycle,
The technology life-cycle (TLC) describes the
commercial gain of a product through the
expense of research and development phase,
and the financial return during its "vital life".
Some technologies, such as steel, paper or
cement manufacturing, have a long lifespan
(with minor variations in technology
incorporated with time) whilst in other cases,
such as electronic or pharmaceutical products,
the lifespan may be quite short.
Technology life-cycle,
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
The Value of Technology Intelligence
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
The Value of Technology Intelligence
The story of a firm ......................................................
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
The Value of Technology Intelligence
……………………………that changed its course of technology
development as a result of a critical piece of technology
intelligence.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
The Value of Technology Intelligence
As illustrated by the story,
the technological intelligence gathering in the firm started
when a piece of data was shared by a potential competitor
(the
manager of the Far Eastern company).
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
The Value of Technology Intelligence
As illustrated by the story,
As the firm gathered requisite data, it better understood the
nature of the threat. This, in turn, led the firm to acquire the
smaller firm, thus cutting down the time to market and
potentially thwarting a major competitor from entry through
acquisition.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
The Value of Technology Intelligence
Its value lies not merely in the information but in the
process of generating it.
The process of generating technological intelligence leads to
- Enhanced capacity and commitment to
- understanding,
- anticipating, and
- responding to
external changes on the part of a firm’s key strategic
managers.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
By technology intelligence, we refer to technology-related
information that is useful and utilized by firms during
strategic decisions.
Critical business decisions are:
- Business Strategy Decisions,
- Authorization of a major research program,
or
- decision to launch a new product initiative
need to be anchored in Technology Intelligence.
Technology Intelligence may reside inside the firm, but
more likely, such information will come from the external
technology environment.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
It serves three major function:
1. The intelligence provides an understanding of current
and potential changes taking place in the environment.
2. Technology Intelligence provides important information
for Strategic Decision makers.
3. Finally, the intelligence facilitates and fosters strategic
thinking in organization.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
The technology intelligence is typically a rich
source of ideas and understanding of the context
in which a firm operates.
It should also challenge the current technology
strategies by bringing fresh points of view into
the organisation.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
Levels of Technology Intelligence
There are three broad types of intelligence suitable for
different types of strategic decisions:
1. Macro-level,
2. Industry or Business-level,
3. Program or Project-level.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
Levels of Technology Intelligence
1. Macro-level:
Macro-level technology intelligence refers to broad
technology trends that are developing in an economy,
which may influence the functioning of national economies,
specific industrial sectors, and specific industries within them.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
Levels of Technology Intelligence
1. Macro-level:
At the macro level, technology trends are typically likely to be general,
Imprecise, ambiguous, and often directional. For example, one such
trend may be the emerging influence of biotechnology in agricultural
Industries; this, however, does not specify which technologies are likely
to be useful to agriculture, nor does it tell when such technologies will
begin to industry in the future.
Example: AT&T focused on the convergence of three hitherto unrelated
Industries – Computers, Video and Telecommunications.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
Levels of Technology Intelligence
2. Industry or Business-level:
Industry or Business-level technology intelligence refers to
technology trends and factors that affect or are likely to
affect specific industries.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
Levels of Technology Intelligence
2. Industry or Business-level:
Industry or Business-level technology intelligence focuses on specific
technologies, although the trend may be quite imprecise.
Example: The multimedia evolution portrayed by AT&T involves fairly
specific technologies; however, the exact nature of the relationship
that are developing between computers and the telecommunications
sector is still open and likely to be subjected to the actions taken by
the firm within these two industries.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
Levels of Technology Intelligence
3. Program or Project-level:
Program or Project-level technology intelligence refers to
technology-related factors for a specific technology-related
program or project.
Technology Management
Technology Intelligence
Levels of Technology Intelligence
3. Program or Project-level:
Program or Project-level technology intelligence has to be, by its very
nature, very specific.
Example: if a firm is designing an “environment-friendly” (green)
product, very specific technologies need to be tracked, technologies
that are useful for developing the product. Further, the intelligence
that is needed at this level has to be precise and timely so that
immediate action can be taken by a particular firm.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Technology Strategy is the revealed pattern in the
technology choices of firms. The choices involved
the commitment of resources for the appropriation,
maintenance, deployment, and abandonment of
technological capabilities. These technology choices
determine the character and extent of the firms’
principal technical capabilities and the set of
available product and process platforms.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Four important points of technology strategies are:
1. Technology strategy focuses on the kinds of
technologies that a firm selects for acquisition,
development, deployment, or divestment.
2. Commitments surrounding technology selection
define technology strategy.
Technology Management
Technology Strategy
Four important points of technology strategies are:
3. Technology strategies are not confined to
high-technology industries. Even a capacity-driven
industry or a customer-driven industry requires a
technology strategy.
4. Finally, technology strategies embrace both the
hardware and software elements of a technology.
TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING
Technology Forecasting
Definition
M. J. Cetron
The prediction with a stated level of confidence, of
the anticipated occurrence of a technological
achievement within a given time frame with a specified
level of support.
Technology Forecasting
Definition
J. R. Bright
Technology forecasting is defined as a quantified
prediction of timing and the degree of change of
technical parameters and attributes aociated with the
design, production and use of devices, materials and
processes according to a specified system of reasoning.
Technology Forecasting
Definition
R. Y. Ayres
A reasonably defined statement about the future,
usually qualified in the sense of being contingent on
unchanging or very slowly changing environment (i.e. no
wars or depression).
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Intutive Methods
Trend Extrapolation
Normative Forecasting
Growth Curves
Cross-Impact Analysis Method
Monitoring
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
1. Intutive Methods include methods of obtaining
forecasts from experts in their respective areas of
specialization. Since most discoveries and innovations are
deliberately engineered by sustained inputs of funds and
manpower (for R & D activities), it is felt that probing the
minds of the people involved in these developments can
give an idea of likely future events. It is reasonable to
expect that a rough picture of the future is already
formed in the minds of these experts.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
1. Intutive Methods
-
Individual Forecasting,
Opinion Polls,
Panel,
Brainstorming,
Delphi Technique,
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
1. Intutive Methods
- Individual Forecasting,
An expert in a specific field is asked to predict
the probable technological events that are
expected to occur in the future in the area of his
expertise. This method is of limited applicability,
specially in developing countries.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
1. Intutive Methods
- Opinion Polls,
If opinion of several individual forecasters are
combined, the errors and bias of individual
predictions are likely to be minimized.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
1. Intutive Methods
- Panel,
In the panel approach, a group of experts
interact across a table and derive a number of
forecasts of signifance. The U.S. Navy and U.S.
Air Force have used this methodology for
defence forecasting. The panel approach has the
advantage of being multidisciplinary.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
1. Intutive Methods
- Brainstorming,
This is a modification of the conservative panel
approach. In brainstorming, meetings are held in
an environment which allows uninhibited and
imaginative speculations. Brainstorming should
be conducted under a well-trained leader.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
1. Intutive Methods
- Delphi Technique,
The Delphi technique is a method of obtaining
expert opinion from large groups os people in a
systematic way. This technique is a modification
of the panel approach. In the Delphi
1. Direct interaction is avoided by using a
programmed sequential questionnaire of three
or four rounds.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
- Delphi Technique,
2. The expert is not called to defend his publicly
expressed opinion, and anonymity of individual
forecasters is maintained.
3. Subordinate do not have to differ with senior
executives face to face.
4. Salesmanship forecasts are avoided.
5. The final result is a statistical group response.
Results are basesd on interactions combined
with controlled feedback.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2.
Trend Extrapolation
The basis of trend extrapolation methodologies is
that the future value of a technical capability, or
production from a technological activity, is an extension
of its part performance, at least into near-term futures.
The forecasts are generally obtained using statistical
time extrapolation techniques similar to those used in
economic forecasting.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2. Trend Extrapolation
- Linear Extrapolation
- Extrapolation Using Exponential Trend
- Double Exponential Extrapolation
- Substitution Technique
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2. Trend Extrapolation
- Linear Extrapolation: In linear extrapolation the
parameter to be forecast is linearly plotted against time,
and the resulting plot is extrapolated into reasonable
future time spans.
For example, the high temperature capability of plastics
has increased linearly with time and this trend can be
extrapolated to project the high temperature capability
of plastics in the near future.
Technology Forecasting
Linear Extrapolation
Linear Extrapolation
Linear Extrapolation
Linear
Extrapolation
Linear
Extrapolation
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2. Trend Extrapolation
- Extrapolation Using Exponential Trend: In this
approach, the logarithm of a particular technological
capability, or production trend from a specific technology
is plotted against time; these semilog plots, which are
frequently linear, are then extrapolated into the future to
make forecasts. The basis for using this methodology
stems from the fact that many technological functional
capabilities and technological parameters have shown
exponential growth over fairly long time periods.
Extrapolation
Using
Exponential Trend
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2. Trend Extrapolation
- Double Exponential Extrapolation: In the double
exponential extrapolation method, the logarithm of a specific
technological parameter is plotted with time and these plots,
if they follow a linear trend, can be extrapolated for
forecasting future values of these parameters. This type of
growth is specially characteristic of technologies for which
R&D efforts are concentrated in the early phase of
development. In theses cases the development is multifold as
more inputs are provided. Output emerges from lasers in the
area of laser technology show this type of exponential
growth.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2. Trend Extrapolation
- Substitution Technique: The parameters of a
technology can often be forecast by extrapolating the
rate of substitution of that technology by some other
recent technology. The substitution model of Fisher and
Pry of General Electric is based on the following
concepts:
1. Many technological advances can be considered as
competitive substitutions of one method of satisfying
a need, by another newer method of satisfying the
same need.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2. Trend Extrapolation
- Substitution Technique:
2. If a substitution has progressed as far as a few percent of
the total consumption, it will proceed to completion.
3. The fractional rate of substitution of a new technology for
an old technology is proportional to the remaining amount of
the old technology left to be substituted.
If the time periods for the initial few percent of
substitution are known, extrapolation of the substitution
curve can be used to predict the extent of substitution in the
future.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2. Trend Extrapolation
- Substitution Technique:
The Fisher and Pry model for rates of substitution has been
found to be obeyed rather well in the USA in the technologies
usng the substitution of
- Natural fibers by synthetic fibres (Fig. 2.6);
- Open heart steel-making process by electric arc process
(Fig. 2.7);
- zinc oxide and lead oxide in paint pigments by titanium
dioxide;
- Oil based paints by water-based paints;
- Natural rubber by synthetic rubber;
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2. Trend Extrapolation
-
- Substitution Technique:
Natural rubber by synthetic rubber;
Soaps by detergents;
inorganic insecticides by organic insecticides; and
-natural tyre fibres by artificial fibres.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2. Trend Extrapolation
-
- Substitution Technique:
Natural rubber by synthetic rubber;
Soaps by detergents;
inorganic insecticides by organic insecticides; and
-natural tyre fibres by artificial fibres.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
2. Trend Extrapolation
- Substitution Technique: In Mathemtical terms
2. Trend Extrapolation
- Substitution
Technique:
2. Trend Extrapolation
- Substitution
Technique:
2. Trend Extrapolation – Substitution Technique:
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
3. Normative Forecasting It is a goal oriented
forecasting where one recedes fromfuture goals to the
present and intermediate-term technological needs.
It is primarily need-based forecasting. Future goals
are specified and then the capabilities which must
exist in the present or intermediate future are
identified for the achievement of specific goals. In a way,
this is a method of pushing the technologies in the
required direction in response to the identified needs of
the future.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
3. Normative Forecasting
- Morphological Analysis,
- Relevance Trees,
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
3. Normative Forecasting
- Morphological Analysis:
It was introduced by Fritz Zwicky with a view to
ensuring that all possible solutions to any problem are
examined before the choice is made as to the best
solution. This method, thus, involves the breakdown of a
problem into parts which can, to some extent, be treated
independently – they have no heirarchical relationships.
In subsequent steps, several solutions or approaches to
each part are enumerated. Overall solutions are obtained
by taking one of the possible solutions to each part.
Technology Forecasting
3. Normative Forecasting - Morphological Analysis:
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
3. Normative Forecasting
- Relevance Trees:
It is used to analyse systems or processes in which distinct
levels of hierarchy can be identified. An overall objective is
selected and then all possible paths or routes towards
realizing the objective are systematized. In general, they serve
to set goals and subgoals at lower and lower levels
representing smaller and smaller elements of some overall
problem. Performance goals are set at each level to give the
tree a normative character. When each of the goals at a lower
level is met, only then are the goals at the next higher level
tackled. Thus, when all subgoals have been achieved it follows
that the highest level goal will perforce be met.
Technology Forecasting
3. Normative Forecasting - Relevance Trees:
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
4. Growth Curves
Similarities between biological growth and the growth of
many technologies or technological parameters have
been noticed. This observation has been used to forecast
the growth of technologies using biological growth
curves.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
4. Growth Curves
- Pearl Curve
- Gomportz Growth Curve
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
4. Growth Curves
- Pearl Curve: Pearl has shown that increase in
population follows a growth pattern similar to the
increase in biological cells in a closed medium following
an S shaped curve. This similarity between population
increase and the growth of a bilogical system has been
extended to the growth of functional capabilities of
technologies.
4. Growth
Curves
Pearl Curve:
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
4. Growth Curves
- Gompertz Growth Curve: There is another growth
curve that is frequently used in technological forecasting.
This is known as Gompertz curve, and is represented as
y = Le – be-kt
where y = parameter of technological growth or
functional capability; L= upper limit of the parameter; b
and k are constant; and t =time.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
4. Growth Curves
- Gompertz Growth Curve: This growth curve can
be used to predict the state of technology for which
there is limit, and when the growth in thr initial stages is
comparatively faster than that of the Pearl curve.
The Pearl and Gompertz curves have been successfully
used for predicting literacy in India.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
5. Cross-Impact Analysis Method Present and future
events interact with each other and influence the
probability, timings, and impact of one another.
It is based on bringing out interactions between
forecasts. Two events can interect in three ways:
1. Mode interaction – one event may enhance or
diminish the likelihood of another event; advance or
delay; necessitate or obviate; or enable or prevent it.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
5. Cross-Impact Analysis Method :
2. Force Interaction – the influence of one event on
another can be strong or weak.
3. Interaction time lag – the interaction between one
event and another may start as soon as the first event
occurs or the influnce or the influence may be felt only
after ten years.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
6. Monitoring Many new technologies emerge from
physical concepts into technologies at a finite rate. It is
posible to identify the majority of probable future
technologies by a careful monitoring of new emerging
ideas at a very early stage.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
6. Monitoring
Monitoring includes three main activities.
1. Search the environment for signals that are heralders
of significant technological innovation. Check whether
the trends are continuing in the same direction. It
involves selecting parameters, events, and decisions to
be followed.
2. Identify possible consequences.
3. Present the data in total form to the decision-maker.
Technology Forecasting
METHODOLOGIES
Accuracy of Forecasting as a function of cost of forecasting
Ref: 1. Technology Forecasting by P. K. Rohatgi, K. Rohatgi, B. Bowonder
2. Managing Technology and Innovation for Competitive Advantage by V. K. Narayana