Obama
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Unique background
Questions about his background
Well Educated
Harvard
Ward Politics in Chicago
Community Organizer
State Senate victory without a race
Obama
• Run for Congress in 2000
Defeated in Democrat Primary
31% of vote
able to keep Senate seat
State Senate Career 1996-2004
Help from Senate President
Never had serious race
Obama
• United States Senate Race
– Wins multi-candidate race
– Republican forced to withdraw after records
released (Jack Ryan)
• Convention Speech 2004
– Instant national celebrity
Obama
• United States Senate
– Talked bi-partisan but recognized the groups
needed for the presidency
– Daschle’s chief of staff
– Raised $$$$ for Democrat candidates
• Decision to run for President
– There might not BE another chance
– CHANGE
Hillary Clinton
• Can anyone defeat Hillary Clinton?
Early Actions
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Fundraising
Iraq War
“New Campaign”
Learn a lot in 2007
“Why I am running for President
CHANGE!!!!!
Early Debates
Early Results
• Strategy
• Hillary- overwhelming force win early and run
the table
• Invested BIG in Iowa
• LOST
• New Hampshire comeback
• War of attrition
• Different strategy
– PARTY RULES
Clinton vs. Obama
• South Carolina
– Bill Clinton hurts campaign
– Black vote strongly with Obama now
• Super Tuesday
– Split Verdict
• Clinton out of money
Clinton vs. Obama
• Caucus States go with OBAMA big time
• Even wins in CA, OH, TX not enough for
Clinton
• Super Delegates slowing, but solidly going to
Obama
• Clinton finally gives in
• Agreement to end her campaign debt
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Obama improves as a candidate
Gets better at debates
Speeches are the key
Survives difficulties
New Money, New Volunteers, builds on the
Howard Dean run from 2004
• Media Darling…even more than McCain
McCain
• Early Front-runner
– Spent too much…too broad
– Traveled alone
– No to Iowa….on to New Hampshire
• Romney, Giuliani, Thompson,
Huckabee…
• Thompson
Big 3
Results
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Iowa
New Hampshire
Michigan
South Carolina
Florida- key
McCain vs. Obama
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McCain fails to take advantage of time
Does not build organization
Relies on tactics as opposed to strategy
Debate challenge and Public Finance
challenges fail
• Obama continues to build money and
organization
• Early Voting, more states to compete
McCain vs. Obama
• New States
– FL, OH, PA of course
– Now…
• NC, VA, IN, GA, TN, LA, AR,….makes McCain
spend money he does not have…
• Most often on TV where McCain cant…FL
VP
• Obama picks safe…older white guy…with
foreign policy
• Lieberman was his choice, feared a floor fight
• McCain takes a chance to gain womens vote
and shake up the race
– Good-bad…
Obama vs. McCain
• Economic Crisis (Sept 15) Lehman Brothers
– Different reactions
– “fundamentals of the economy are strong”
• PA, Michigan?
• McBUSH
• Debates reveal nothing
• Democrats have better machine for 1st time
Obama- 365-173…FL, NC, VA, CO, NM, NV, IA, IN, OH
What we learned?
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America not racist
Democrats compete in all 50 states
Emergence of the internet
Return to person to person contact
Get in race early…organize, learn…
WHY YOU ARE RUNNING for PRESIDENT!
Early Voting
MONEY, MONEY, MONEY
• RE-ALIGNMENT?
Democrat Gains 2008
• Democrat
• White Vote
• Black Vote
• Hispanic
43% (+2)
95%(+7)
67% (+7)
Republican
55%
4%
31%
OBAMA
• Approval…falling
• 46%-53% disapprove
• High Mark was 69%-26%
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Health Care
Stimulus
Debt
Big Government…
Where is transparency?
American Voter
• White
• Black
• Hispanic
74% (-3)
13% (+2)
9% (+1)
• other
4%
Trends
• Fewer White Voters
– 1976 9 of 10 voters
– 2008 3 of 4 voters
• Hispanic Voters going Democrat
– Influential in more states
• Youth Vote (18-29)- up 12 pts to 66%
Democrat
Trends
• New Voters made up 1 of 10 voters
– 69% Democrat
• Male Vote shrunk from 55 to 48% for
Republicans
• Wealthy Voters up 8% to 49-49
Interesting
• Wealth is UP in 2008
• Under $50k
• 50-100k
• Over 100k
45% now 38%
37% now 36%
18% now 26%
• Wealth did increase…with no inflation