Waveney
Environment Network
27th January 2005
Climate Change Mitigation
What it means for Business
Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE
Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre
School of Environmental Sciences
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project
Some examples of good practice
What it means for business
The future
Future Global Warming Rates
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
380
370
(ppm)
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Reasons for Concern
Range of
predicted
temperatures
Current
temperature
Risks to
Many
Risks to
Some
Large
Increase
Increase
I
II
Historic Average
Average 1950 - 1970
Negative
for most
Regions
Negative
for some
Regions
III
Net
Negative
for all
markets
most
Some
positive/
some
negative
Most
people
adversely
affected
IV
I
II
Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems
Risks from Extreme Climatic Events
III
IV
V
Distribution of Impacts
Aggregate Impacts
Risks from Future Large Scale Discontinuities
Higher
Risk
oC
Very Low
Risk
V
Electricity Scenarios for UK and implications on CO2 emissions.
Carbon
Carbon Dioxide
Dioxide Emissions
Emissions
Nuclear
Scenario
GasScenario
Scenario
Variable Scenario:
Coal
40% Gas; 20% Nuclear
250
250
20 year growth in
demand
Million
Milliontonnes
tonnes
200
200
200
1.8-2% per
annum
150
150
150
20% reduction
2.2% in 2003
100
100
100
Gas
60% reduction
Coal
50
50
50
Nuclear
Variable
00
01990
1990
1990
1995
1995
1995
2000
2000
2000
2005
2005
2005
Year
Year
Year
2010
2010
2010
2015
2015
2015
2020
2020
2020
Assumptions: 20% renewable generation by 2020,
Demand stabilizes at 420 TWH in 7 years
2025
2025
2025
Difficult Choices Ahead
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods
potential
contribution to
Electricity Supply
in 2020
Gas CCGT
nuclear fission
(long term)
nuclear fusion
"Clean Coal"
costs in 2020
available now, but UK
0 - 80% (currently
gas will run out within
40% and rising)
current decade
~ 2p + but recent
trends put figure
much higher
0 - 60% (France new inherently safe
80%) - (currently 20 designs - some practical
- 25% and falling) development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
unavailable
Traditional Coal
falling rapidly coal could supply
40 - 50% by 2020
not available until 2040
at earliest
Basic components
available - not viable
without Carbon
Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p - but will
EU - ETS affect
this
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
potential
2.5 - 3p
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore
Wind Fuels:
~25% available now for commercial
Transport
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore
Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
• Biodiesel?
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro• Bioethanol?
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
100% + available, but research needed in
some areas
2.5 - 4
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal
Stream
Tidal Barrages
100% + techology limited - extensive
4 - 8p
Geothermal
some areas
development unlikely before 2020
10 - 20% technology available but unlikely
without Government intervention
unlikely for electricity generation
before 2050 if then
not
costed
Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th
January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 911.562 kWh
Solar Thermal Performance - detached house in Norwich
8
Will save about 0.25 tonnes per year
No automatic data data averaged
7
6
Net Solar Gain (kWhrs/day)
No automatic data data averaged
5
4
3
2
1
0
08/02/04
22/02/04
07/03/04
21/03/04
04/04/04
18/04/04
02/05/04
16/05/04
30/05/04
From 27th Jan - 15th Sept 2004 average gain 3.16 kWh per day
It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles
- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project
Some examples of good practice
What it means for business
The future
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and
biomass.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
•
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
•
then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•
unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
which is unlikely
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of
gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity
from GAS
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global
Warming?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route
and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
Our Choices: They are difficult
BUT:
Aren’t Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply
A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security
[it is rare for the wind not to be blowing anywhere except on sunny days when
solar energy output is at a peak]
A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power
cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark.
Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW enough to supply
over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater
backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines.
Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project
Some examples of good practice
What it means for business
The future
Government Response
• Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2
emissions by 2050
• Will require unprecedented partnership activity in
local communities to ensure on track by 2020s
• (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken)
“There will be much more local generation, in part from
medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by
locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and
from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed
networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’
- Energy White Paper: February 2003
UK
• Renewables Obligation
> 10.4% by 2010
in 2003 - 2004 -----4.3%, but in practice barely 3%
Announced on 11th March 2004 -
3.139 p per kWh
• Revision of Building Regulations brought forward
EU
• Biofuels Directive for Transport
2005 (2%) >>> 5.75% in 2010
• Carbon Emission Trading -
•started on 1st January 2005
The CRed ambition
To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to
debate, plan and execute a programme to reduce carbon
emissions by up to 60% by 2025
Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to
confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference?
Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else?
Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf?
“exemplar for the world”
On average each person in UK
causes the emission of 9 tonnes
of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9
tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person
per year.
4 million each year for Norfolk
Some facts:
A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging
up to 25 kg CO2 a year
Standby on television > 60 kg per year
Filling up with petrol (~£30 for a full tank)
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project
Some examples of good practice
What it means for business
The future
Main Energy Conservation Projects at UEA
• Constable Terrace/ Nelson Court Student Residences
• Elizabeth Fry Building
• Combined Heat and Power
• School of Medicine
• ZICER Building
The Future - from May 2005
• Absorption Chilling
The Elizabeth Fry Building
The Elizabeth Fry Building
•Termodeck Construction
•Air is circulated through whole fabric of building
•Heated using a normal domestic heating boiler (24 kW)
•No heat supply needed at temperatures as cool as 9oC
•Triple glazing with Low Emissivity Glass
~ quadruple glazing
•180 mm insulated cavity
•300 mm roof insulation
•100 mm floor insulation
•Air – Pressure Test at 50 Pa – not to exceed 1.0 ach
•
Actual performance 0.97 ach
•
Has deteriorated slightly since 1996
• Uses regenerative Heat Exchangers 85% with heat recovery
• Exceeds proposed 2005 Regulations
• Capital Cost – just 5% more
Energy Consumption in Elizabeth Fry
Electricity Comsumption - Elzabeth Fry
Gas Consumption - Elizabeth Fry
140
250
120
200
kWh/m2/yr
kWh/m2 /yr
100
80
60
40
150
100
50
20
0
0
Elizabeth Fry
low
Elizabeth Fry
average
The performance of the
building has improved with
time
Energy requirement 20% of good
practice for Academic Buildings.
Average
Heating/Hot Water
kWh/m 2/yr
Heating provided by domestic
sized boilers.
Low
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Hot Water
Space Heating
1995
1996
1997
Elizabeth Fry: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and User Satisfaction
96
100
Elizabeth Fry
User Satisfaction
90
ECON 19
Good Practice
Type 3 Office
80
70
50
40
30
Elizabeth Fry
kg/m2/annum
60
thermal comfort
+28%
air quality
+36%
lighting
+25%
noise
+26%
20
44
10
0
An energy efficient building
reduces carbon dioxide
AND
is a better building to work in.
gas
electricity
carbon dioxide emissions
Projected Performance of ZICER
50
gas
kg CO2/m 2/yr
40
electricity
30
20
10
ZICER
Elizabeth
Fry (2002)
Elizabeth
Fry (New)
0
Elizabeth Fry performance has improved over years. ZICER will be better and less than 70% of
emissions of mid 90’s best practice building
Photovoltaic cells will generate ~ 30 kW and save 20 tonnes CO 2 per annum.
UEA Combined Heat and Power Scheme
UEA CHP Scheme
• Until 1999 most heat for space heating was supplied by large boilers
• Primary main temperature ~ 110 – 120oC
• All electricity imported
• Energy bill was in excess of £1 million per year
• Three 1 MWe generators are now installed
• Provide the majority of the electricity for the campus
• Export electricity at periods of low demand
• Waste heat is used a primary heat source
• Supplemented by existing boilers
• CHP has reduced that figure by £400 000 per year
UEA CHP Scheme Performance
Before Installation: Energy and Carbon Dioxide
1997/98
electricity
gas
oil
kWh
19895328 351418158 33150
kg/kWh
0.43
0.186
0.277
total
balloons
tonnes CO28555
6537.6
9.2 15101.7
8390
After Installation:
Energy costs cut to £600 000
from £1 000 000
electricity (kWh)
demand
20436531
CHP generation 15630431
export
977000
oil (kWh)
gas (kWh)
import
5783100 Boilers
CHP
net import
4806100 14510078 28263077 922563
kg/kWh
tonnes
0.43
2066.6
0.186
2698.9
0.186
5256.9
Saving in CO2: 4824 tonnes or 31.9%
0.277
255.5
total balloons
10278 5710
CHP Review
1997/98
kWh
kg/kWh
tonnes
electricity export
1999/00 kWh
kg/
kWh
tonnes
electricity
19895328
0.43
8555.0
import
Generation
gas
35148158
0.186
6537.6
boilers
oil
total
balloons
33150
0.277
9.2 15101.7
8390
CHP
oil
total
balloons
20436531 977000 5783100 15630431 14510078 28263077 922563
-0.43
0.43
-420.1
2486.7
0.0
0.186
0.186
2698.9
5256.9
0.277
255.5 10278.0
Saving in CO2 emissions as a result of CHP - 4824 tonnes CO2 or 31.9%
Equivalent to 2680 hot air balloons.
[Note: UEA expanded during time and consumption increased so CO2 savings
are really higher than this].
5710
Absorption Heat Pump
The Win - Win opportunity
Heat rejected
Heat from external
source
High Temperature
High Pressure
Desorber
Condenser
Heat
Exchanger
Throttle
Valve
Compressor
W
W in
~0
Evaporator
Absorber
Heat extracted for
cooling
Low Temperature
Low Pressure
More electricity can be generated in summer
Less electricity demand in summer
> more income for exports
Duke Street Renovation
• Norwich led the way in 1940’s
• First ever Heat Pump
• Opportunity now exists to reinstate a heat pump in the same
building that John Sumner did his pioneering work.
• Heat pump will reduce carbon emissions by 60% and
significantly reduces fuel bill.
• Provides a cost effective solution - cheaper overall
conversion and cheaper to run
Duke Street Refurbishment - Heat Losses
8%
14%
walls
2%
windows
3%
floor
roof
73%
Ventilation
Loss
Tackling heat recovery from ventilation is important
Climate Change Mitigation
•
•
•
•
•
•
The facts about Global Warming
Energy Security Issues
The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project
Some examples of good practice
What can businesses do?
The future
CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES for Business - Energy Management.
Technical
Education
Energy Management
Energy Consumption



• Record Keeping and Analysis
• Early warning of poor performance
• Can identify strategies to improve performance
Technical Measures will have
limited impact on energy consumption
if staff are not educated to use energy wisely.
Energy Management
heating is a key aspect in energy conservation
season
A good Energy Manager will:No heating season
 Assess Energy Demand - record keeping
 Analyse Energy Demand - examine trends relating to physical factors
Outside Temperature
 Advise on technical and other methods to promote energy conservation
A Low Cost Option
 Advertise and publicise ways to save energy
 Account for energy consumed
After several years of falling prices, energy prices are rising
Wholesale Contact Prices since start of NETA
40
base load
peak
£ per Mwh
35
Government trumpets
success of NETA
30
25
20
Oct 04
Jul 04
Apr 04
Jan 04
Oct 03
Jul 03
Apr 03
Jan 03
Jul 02
Apr 02
Jan 02
Oct 01
Jul 01
Apr 01
10
Oct 02
15
Electricity
Schemes to save energy are becoming increasingly attractive
Recent Trends in Wholesale Prices
Electricity
Gas
Retail prices have followed trend in Wholesale prices
Gas: 20% increase in last year:
Electricity: 14% increase
Other Issues
• Businesses are already affected by Climatic Change Levy
• 0.43p per kWh (electricity)
• Moderate sized businesses – e.g. UEA are now being
affected by the new EU Emissions Trading System
• First Phase (2005 – 2007) Came into force on 1st January
2005.
• Could adversely affect UEA by between £20,000 and
£80,000 per annum
• Phase 2 starts in 2008 and is likely to affect further
businesses
• Electricity Prices in UK will rise further as this sector has to
take brunt of reduction in emissions.
– Gas prices are rising
– North Sea Output of gas fell by 8% last year
– A switch back to coal will see an increase in the number of Carbon
Credits which need to be purchased and would push up trading price
G-Wiz Electric Car
•Can carry 2 ADULTS AND 2 small CHILDREN
•Range 40 miles – will improve to around 50+ miles in a year or so
•Maximum Speed 40 mph
•Running cost ~ 1.5p per mile ~ 500+ miles per gallon equivalent
•Around 30% of carbon emissions
•NO ROAD TAX: In London: NO CONGESTION CHARGE:
•In many car parks – free parking and free charging!
Energy Saving: The Carbon Trust
www.thecarbontrust.co.uk
Conclusions
• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL
generation of energy
• Examples of Good Practice Low Carbon Applications
already exist
• It makes sense to take action now
• Need to act now otherwise
we might indeed have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles
or heat an old person’s room
WEBSITE
www.cred-uk.org/
This presentation will be available from tomorrow at
www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm