Corporate Governance Outside the United States and United Kingdom Randall Morck University of Alberta Canada National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge MA USA In Whom We Trust … Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong Ireland Israel Italy Japan Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Singapore South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland United United States 0% Wealthy family 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Widely held non-financial firm 70% 80% 90% 100% Widely held financial institution Family Firms & Corporate Performance Standard Lecture Professional Family ▼ Agency problems ▼ Agency problems ▼ CEO’s career sets planning horizon? ▲ Legacy issues lead to long term horizon? ▼ CEO trained at business school ▲ CEO trained from infancy by family ▲ Select CEO from whole gene pool ▼ Select CEO from blood relatives ▲ Business run as a business ▼ Family conflicts affect the business ▲ Junior managers can become CEO ▼ Junior managers can never become CEO Empirical studies Canada Chile Family firms perform worse India Family firms perform better Denmark Family firms perform worse Family firms perform better USA Mixed evidence, but true family firms do worse than others “Definition” issues is some studies Billionaire Wealth, by Source, per Dollar of GDP 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 South East Asia Latin America Western Europe Israel Canada United States Turkey Japan South Africa India United Kingdom Australia New Money Old Money Old and New Money Political Family Probably Old Money 140 Table 2 The Cross-Country Relationship Between Economic Growth and Capital Ownership Structure Controlling for Current per Capita Income, Capital Investment Rate, and Level of Education Intercept 2.1 1.43 (..32) 2.2 1.58 (.30) 2.3 1.59 (.27) 2.4 1.65 (.28) 2.5 1.75 (.22) 2.6 1.73 (.26) 2.7 1.86 (.20) 2.8 1.78 (.25) Log of per capita GDP: ln(Y/L) -1.76 (.00) -1.77 (.00) -1.80 (.00) -1.79 (.00) -1.54 (.00) -1.66 (.00) -1.62 (.00) -1.69 (.00) Capital Accumulation Rate: I/K .210 (.00) .216 (.00) .208 (.00) .214 (.00) .173 (.00) .199 (.00) .178 (.00) .199 (.00) Average Total Years of Education: ln(E) .238 (.27) .203 (.35) .253 (.23) .214 (.32) .242 (.24) .200 (.35) .259 (.21) .213 (.32) Business Entrepreneur Billionaire Wealth Over GDP: B/Y Heir Billionaire Wealth Over GDP: H/Y .440 (.00) .37 (.00) .42 (.00) .37 (.00) .495 (.00) .382 (.00) .45 (.00) .37 (.00) -.292 (.03) -.168 (.10) -.268 (.03) -.157 (.09) -.407 (.01) -.191 (.09) -.33 (.01) -.17 (.08) Definition of “Heir”a H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 R squared 0.519 0.488 0.531 0.489 0.545 0.491 0.536 0.491 Note: Numbers in parenthesis are two tailed t-test probability levels for rejecting a zero coefficient. Coefficients in boldface are statistically significant at 90% confidence or more. Sample of 39 countries consists of the countries listed in Table 1 minus the U.K. and U.S. a H includes only the wealth of billionaires known positively to be heirs, politicians or politicians’ relations. H 1 2 also includes the wealth of billionaires who are probably heirs. H3 includes H 1 plus fortunes jointly controlled by a founder and his heirs. H4 includes all the above. H5 through H 8 are analogous to H, H 2, H3 and H 4 but do not include politician billionaires and their relations. Old Money Families and Slow Economic Growth New Money Entrepreneurs and Fast Economic Growth Das Kapital Internal Contradictions of Capitalism Competition Investment Firms try to steal each others’ customers by cutting prices Economic profits fall Why invest if no profit Investment falls The inevitable collapse of capitalism Karl Marx The Great Experiment Political leaders of the 20th century ran a monumental economic experiment Socialism collapsed and capitalism prospered Economic profits did not fall Investment did not fall Marx was wrong Why? Creative Destruction Innovative firms have no real competitors Innovators steal other firms’ customers by offering For a while … New, better products Old products made more cheaply Non-innovative firms are destroyed by innovators Innovators continue making profits until more creative innovators destroy them Joseph Schumpeter A Theory of Economic Growth 1914 Corporate Governance Schumpeter argued that the ultimate purpose of financial markets is financing creative destruction There are two kinds of people Entrepreneurs (Ideas, no money) $ Capitalists (Money, no ideas) Australia Austria Bangladesh Barbados Belgium Canada Chile Colombia Cyprus Denmark Ecuador Egypt Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Ireland Israel Italy Japan Jordan Kenya Korea (South) Kuwait Malaysia Mexico Morocco Netherlands New Zealand Nigeria Norway Pakistan Panama Peru Philippines Portugal Singapore Spain Sri Lanka Sweden Trinidad & Tobago Tunisia Turkey United Kingdom United States Venezuela Zimbabwe Stock Market Capitalization Relative to GDP (1996) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics The following are all strongly statistically correlated … Economic growth New money wealth Stock market activity Corporate governance Puzzle If good governance and active stock markets are so important to economic growth, why do so many countries opt to do without them? Culture There is a strange charm in the thoughts of a good legacy. Miguel de Cervantes 1547-1616, Spanish writer A man who dies rich dies disgraced. Andrew Carnegie, American Tycoon Ability Intelligence is, at most, only party inherited Political Rent Seeking Two sorts of investment 1. Creative destruction Invest in new factory profits After: Country has new factory Positive externality: Country is richer 2. Political rent-seeking Invest in politician profits After: Politician has a Swiss bank account Negative externality: Whole country is poorer Anne Krueger Stanford University How fast an economy grows depends on how it sets up the relative profitability of these two sorts of investment Regulation Old money wealthy are better at lobbying for favorable regulations than at building efficient new factories? “As the deer pants for cooling streams, so do I pant for regulation.” Alfred Krupp (1812-87), heir to the Krupp steel & armaments businesses Dynastic Capitalism Prevalence of Free Market Prices 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Part of Large Corporate Sector Family Controlled 90% 100% Dynastic Capitalism Absence of Bureacratic Red Tape 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Part of Large Corporate Sector Family Controlled 90% 100% Financial Reversal Old money wealthy fear ‘creative destruction’ and don’t really want an active stock market? They lobby for Opaque corporations Weak governance standards Or maybe it’s simpler … Ideological confusion? Just didn’t think of it? Transparency & Trust Source: La Porta et al. (2003) Governance Standards & Trust Source: La Porta et al. (2003) Good Governance Model Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Public Shareholders Large US and UK firms are: 1. Free-standing 2. Publicly traded companies do not own stock in each other Widely held Corporate managers own very little stock; most stock owned by “widows and orphans” Resulting governance (agency) problem Hired managers spend “other people’s money” and so grow careless or self-indulgent US Solutions? After Earlier Scandals The SEC Dividend taxation Bankruptcy Executive stock options Hostile takeovers The Current View Sarbanes Oxley, etc. Dynastic Capitalism But large US and UK firms are very atypical Large firms in most other countries are 1. Organized into business groups 2. Publicly traded companies control each other Narrowly held Wealthy ‘old money’ families control large blocks of stock, directly or indirectly, and cannot be ignored by hired managers This difference is so fundamental to political economy discussions that people in the USA and people elsewhere simply fail to comprehend each other's conceptions of how a free market economy works Double-click to re turn to pre vious page. HEES INTERNA TIONA L BANCORP INC. Edper Group 36 B.C. PA CIFIC 52.4 35 42.6 DEXLEIGH CORP. 100 Double-click to proce ed to the ne xt page. 50 A 41 CANADIA N CORP. SERVICES 71.9 CANADIA N EXPRESS 12 100 BRL ENTERPRISES FT CAPITAL LIMITED A LBEMONT A RTICTIC PA GURIA N LTD. 100 A MERICA N RESOURCES 49 CANADIA N EXPRESS INVESTMENTS ENFIELD 100 48.6 COLLINGWOOD REA L ESTA TE LESTER & ORPEN DENNY S 99.8 MORGAN FINA NCIA L CORP. A LBEMONT LTD. 100 DUNBA R INVESTMENT CORP. 100 49 100 MORGAN BANCORP INC. 100 51 COMPLEX A XE CANADA 50 EDPER HOLDINGS INC. 40 KANANA SKIS RESORT REV ELTEK CORP. 48.9 GOLDA LE A CCEPTA NCE 49.9 100 49 CANADIA N INTERCONTINENTA L EQUITIES 54.3 WESTFIELD MINERA LS 74.2 40 EDPER ENTERPRISES LTD. (HIL CORP. LTD) 19.5 100 23.9 C.J. FOOD SERVICES NORTHGATE EXPLORA TION OTHER SUB'S IN HEES INTL. 100 46.7 TA RXIEN A Governance Map of Chile Corporate Governance Elsewhere Wealthy families control firms indirectly, so they are also basically spending other people’s money One wealthy family controls a group of firms, and can direct one to lose money to help another Wealthy families cannot be dislodged from control, even if the patriarch becomes senile or the heir is blatantly unqualified If very few families control most of the large business sector, weak corporate governance can become a macroeconomic problem The Relevance of US Solutions? Sarbanes-Oxley Independent directors Independent chair Board committees Institutional investors Proxy fights Back to basics? All designed for Anglo-American capitalism Will any of this work in dynastic capitalism? Milgram, Stanley. Obedience to Authority. New York. Harper and Row. 1974. Stanley Milgram Milgram Obedience Experiment Percent of Subjects still obedient 100 Learner complains of pain 90 Learner pleads to be let out 80 Learner screams and Refuses to answer 70 60 50 40 Voltage 0 75 150 moderate strong 225 very strong 300 intense 375 severe 450 XXX The Importance of Dissent Percent of Subjects still obedient 100 90 Stranger steps in and expresses disapproval of the experiment 80 70 0 Voltage 0 75 150 moderate strong 225 very strong 300 intense 375 severe 450 XXX Corporate Governance Solutions Sarbanes-Oxley Independent directors Independent chair Committees Institutional investors Proxy fights All encourage dissent Can this be done in dynastic capitalism? Globalization? Canada-US free trade helped ‘new money’ firms and hurt ‘old money’ firms Why? New firms can sidestep local regulations? New firms can raise funds abroad? Table 10 Cumulative Abnormal Returns of Large Canadian Firms Upon the News that the Canada-US Free Trade Would Be Ratified by the Canadian Parliament Controlling Shareholder Categories Compared heirs minus business entrepreneurs Mean Differences Mean Residual Differences controlling for firm age & sizea -.0765 -0.0623 (.12) (.10) 15 23 -.0993 (.03) 15 -0.0729 (.04) 23 heirs minus widely held .01347 (.37) 24 .0260 (.26) 37 .00034 (.50) 24 .0188 (.33) 37 heirs minus all other private sector firms -.0317 (.22) 61 -.0068 (.42) 61 -.0316 (.23) 61 -.0098 (.39) 61 business entrepreneurs minus widely held .1128 (.00) 21 .0989 (0.04) 28 .1328 (.00) 21 .1271 (.02) 28 business entrepreneurs minus all other private sector .0802 (.05) 61 .0767 (.05) 61 .0916 (.04) 61 .0857 (0.04) 61 Includes firms in pyramids no yes no yes Note: Categories are defined as in Table 3. Subsamples are smaller because we do not have stock returns for all firms listed in that table. Numbers in parenthesis are probability levels from t-tests. Numbers below them are sample sizes. Boldface type indicates significance in a one-tailed t-test at 10%. The cumulative abnormal return is for all trading days from November 10, the date of the first poll questioning the Liberal lead, through to November 21 1988, the first trading day after a surprise Conservative majority government was returned. Cumulative abnormal returns are returns minus the value weighted returns of all other firms in the 3 digit industry. Using equal weighting gives similar results. a This panel contains coefficients and p-levels for , a dummy variable set to one if the firm is in subsample 1 and zero if it is in subsample 2., in the ordinary least squares regression CAR i 0 1 log(agei ) 2 log(salesi) 3 i. Table 13 Transition Matrix for Large Canadian Firms Relating Controlling Shareholder Description in 1988 to Controlling Shareholder Description in 1994 1994 controlling sharehol der type 1988 controlling shareholder type (see left table margin for definitions) b c d e f g h i 1 18 4 47 2 1 5 3 4 19 1 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 6 1 1 1 1 42 1 18 Changes into 1994 Category 1 0 23 3 7 3 4 0 1 1 5 5 4 a j a. heir 36 b. business entrepreneur c. no controlling shareholder (widely held) 4 d. other individual or family 2 e. investment fund 1 f. widely-held Canadian parent firm g. foreign parent firm h. government i. coop 1 j. labor 1 k. bankruptcy 1 3 1 l. acquired 3 1 1 m. unknown 1 1 2 Total in Category for 1988 44 27 53 29 6 14 49 23 0 1 Sample is firms in the 1988 Financial Post 500 for which accounting and ownership data are available. Bottom Lines US solutions no good if your problems are different. The basic idea beneath a long sequence of different reforms in the US, the UK, and other Western and Asian countries is to encourage honest dissent. This is more universally useful than the specifics of e.g. Sarbanes Oxley Globalization erodes the power of local elites, creating a window for genuine reform.