Leaders Effecting Change on
Public Opinion in the United States
Presented by Dan Yankelovich to
U.S. - Islamic World Forum
Doha, Qatar
February 18, 2006
Conference Theme: LEADERS EFFECT CHANGE
Research discovery: SUCCEEDS ONLY WHEN TWO
CONDITIONS ARE MET
2
To effect change on a threshold issue,
two conditions must prevail
I: Shared urgency about problem
+
II: Solution fits with public’s “common sense”
One or another is not enough.
To effect change, both conditions must be met.
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Three Threshold Issues
WAR IN IRAQ
U.S. ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
U.S.-Muslim Relations
Nuclear Proliferation
Israeli-Arab Conflict
4
Tensions with China
War in Iraq: Public worried
86%
Worry
“somewhat”
30%
80%
Worry
“somewhat”
36%
Worry “a lot”
56%
Worry “a lot”
44%
Worry about
casualties in Iraq*
5
Worry about distraction
from other priorities**
*Q 10A: How much do you worry that the war in Iraq is leading to too many casualties? (A lot, somewhat, not at all)
**Q 10C: How much do you worry that the war in Iraq is requiring so much money and attention that it may be distracting the U.S. from other threats in the world?
(A lot, somewhat, not at all)
War in Iraq: Public has reservations
about U.S. strategy
Public favors emphasizing:*
Military
Effort
28%
d/k
11%
6
Diplomatic/
Economic
Effort
61%
Public questions whether US is
meeting its objectives**
Government
successful
33%
Government
not
successful
61%
d/k
6%
* Q 8C: Thinking about things that the government must do to fight terrorism, should the government put more emphasis on military efforts or should it put more
emphasis on diplomatic and economic methods?
** Q 9J: What grade would you give the U.S. when it comes to succeeding in meeting our objectives in Iraq? (“Successful” = A or B; “Unsuccessful” = C, D, F)
War in Iraq: Very divisive politically
77%
74%
61%
Republican
Democrat
33%
16%
Government completely
truthful about why we
invaded Iraq*
18b
19%
Government successful
in meeting our objectives
in Iraq**
9j
War in Iraq is leading to
too many casualties***
10a
* Q 18c-B: How truthful do you think the government has been in what it has told the public about why we invaded Iraq?
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** Q 9J: What grade would you give the U.S. when it comes to succeeding in meeting our objectives in Iraq? (A, B, C, D, F; “Successful” = A or B)
*** Q 10A: How much do you worry that the war in Iraq is leading to too many casualties? (A lot, somewhat, not at all)
Lack of energy independence:
A major public concern
88%
90%
Worry
“somewhat”
33%
33%
Worry “a lot”
55%
Worry about
supply of energy*
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“Somewhat”
“A great deal”
57%
Dependence reduces
our security**
*Q 10D: How much do you worry that problems abroad may hurt our supply of oil and raise prices for American consumers? (A lot, somewhat, not at all)
**Q 10C: How much would becoming less dependent on other countries for our supply of energy enhance our nation’s security? (A great deal, somewhat, not at all)
Lack of energy independence:
Government seen as failing
85%
Something
A lot
35%
50%
20%
Government is able to do
something about it*
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Government has been
successful on this
objective**
*Q 13H: Is decreasing our dependence on other countries for our supply of energy something our government can do a lot about, something about, or not much about?
**Q 9X: What grade would you give the U.S. when it comes to becoming less dependent on other countries for our supply of energy?
(A, B, C, D, F: “Successful” = A or B)
Lack of energy independence NOT
divisive politically
20%
21%
20%
Total
Republican
Democrat
Government has been successful in achieving energy independence*
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*Q 9X: What grade would you give the U.S. when it comes to becoming less dependent on other countries for our supply of energy?
(A, B, C, D, F: “Successful” = A or B)
Relations with Muslim countries:
Widespread discontent, confidence in communication
56%
25%
Government has
succeeded in establishing
good relations*
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Believe improved
communication and
dialogue will reduce
hatred of U.S.**
*Q 9R: What grade would you give the U.S. when it comes to having good relations and reputations with Muslim countries? (A, B, C, D, F: “Successful” = A or B)
* Q 11A: Do you think/believe that improved communication and dialogue with the Muslim world will reduce hatred of the U.S.?
Public has confidence in democracy, but not in US
government’s ability to implant it in other nations
53%
58%
22%
More democracy means
less conflict*
Countries must come to
democracy on their own**
Government can do a lot
to create a democracy
in Iraq***
*Q 11C: Do you think/believe that when more countries become democratic there will be less conflict and violence in the world?
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**Q 17: Do you think the U.S. can effectively help other countries become democratic, or is democracy something that countries only come to on their
own when they’re ready for it?
***Q 13B: Is creating a democratic Iraq something our government can do a lot about, something about, or not much about?
What U.S. foreign policy goals should be
Highest ranked goals
71% 70% 69%
Middle ranked goals
Lowest ranked goals
57%
51%
40%
31%
22% 20%
Help with
natural
disasters
(Q 18a-E)*
Cooperate
on
environment
and disease
control
(Q 18a-H)*
Support UN
peacekeeping
(Q 18aa)*
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* Full text of each question can be found on slide 15
Improve
the
treatment
of women
(Q 18a-L)*
Help
people in
poor
countries
get an
education
(Q 18a-K)*
Help poor
countries
move out
of poverty
(Q 18a-I)*
Get less
involved
with global
issues
(Q 18a-B)*
Encourage
business
to invest in
poor
countries
(Q 18a-J)*
Actively
create
democracy
abroad
(Q 18a-C)*
= Humanitarian goals
Two proposals for leadership
I.
Accentuate humanitarian ideals that public
supports, especially in relation to Muslim
countries
II. A more determined and ambitious effort to
achieve energy independence
… reduce “oil politics”
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Data in this presentation comes from an ongoing tracking survey conducted by Public Agenda and will be
published in the May/June 2006 issue of Foreign Affairs.
Appendix: Text of questions from slide 13


15
Q 18a: How important to our foreign policy should each of the following be:

18a-E: Helping other countries when they are struck by natural disasters (like the
tsunami in Indonesia)?

18a-H: Cooperating with other countries on problems like the environment or control of
diseases?

18a-L: Improving the treatment of women in other countries?

18a-K: Helping people in poor countries to get an education?

18a-I: Helping poor countries move out of poverty?

18a-B: Minding our own business and getting less involved with global issues?

18a-J: Encouraging U.S. business to invest in poor countries?

18a-C: Actively creating democracies in other countries?
Q 18aa: Would you say that the US support of the UN Peacekeeping effort is:
important and worthwhile, or a waste of resources?