Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009
Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the system
works and what the parties stand for
Dr Stephen Sherlock
Dr Greg Fealy
Part I
How the electoral system
works
Indonesia is now a well functioning
presidential democracy
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Best functioning democracy in Southeast Asia
(compare Thailand, Malaysia, Burma)
1999 – will the election be free & fair and without
violence? Will the military withdraw from politics?
2004 – will direct presidential election succeed?
2009 – refining & developing the system
Now in second stage of democratic governance
reform – eg. Anti-corruption Commission,
Constitutional Court
2009 – Year of voting frequently
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There will be 5 (possibly 6) elections in 2009.
9 April – Legislative elections
 National
Parliament (DPR)
 Regional Representative Council (DPD)
 Provincial “Parliaments” (DPRD-I)
 District “Parliaments” (DPRD-II)
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8 July – Presidential elections (1st round)
8 September – Presidential elections (2nd round)
Third parliamentary election (1999, 2004, 2009)
Second direct presidential election (2004, 2009)
2009 elections cycle: parliamentary &
presidential – 5 year fixed term
9 April Elections
DPR
DPD
DPRD – I
DPRD – II
Election results
2.5% threshold (seats)
20% threshold
(president)
Cow-trading
(dagang sapi)
8 July
1st Round
50% threshold
20% in 66% provinces
2014
October
October
8 Sept 2nd Round
50% threshold
MPR (DPR + DPD)
inaugurates
President & VP
DPR & DPD
inaugurated
Year of voting: A mammoth undertaking
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171,068,667 registered voters
 East
Java 29,294,127
West Papua 509,580
33 provinces
 489 districts (kabupaten/kota)
 77 electoral districts (daerah pemilihan)
 600,000 voting stations
 11,868 candidates in DPR
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Administered by the independent General
Elections Commission (KPU)
4 April – DPR (House of Representatives)
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560 Members (increased from 550)
Elected by proportional representation (PR)
 Multi-member
electoral districts (3 to 10 seats per
district)
 Parties win seats in proportion to their vote
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Electoral districts cannot cross provincial
boundaries
provinces have a number of districts – eg W.
Java 11 districts with 6 to 10 seats (total = 91 seats)
 Medium-sized provinces have fewer districts – eg Sth
Sulawesi 3 districts with 7 to 9 seats (total = 24 seats)
 Small provinces have 1 district – eg Maluku 1 district
with 3 seats (total = 3 seats)
 Large
"Big Seven" Parties
Percentage of parliamentary seats
25
20
15
10
5
0
Golkar
PDIP
Democrat
PPP
PKB
PAN
PKS
Others
Changes to the electoral system
will have huge political effects
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New regulations have changed the way the
campaign is being fought
Will alter the composition of the DPR
Affect the way coalitions are formed for
presidential candidates
Constitutional Court decisions on the electoral
law have changed the rules of the game
From “closed list” to “open list” PR
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Gradual reform since 1999 election
In 1999 “closed list” system meant voters could only vote
for a party.
Parties listed their candidates in strict order – ie those at
the top would be elected.
Widely criticised for allowing domination by parties
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MPs ignored their constituency
Many candidates bought their position on the party ticket
In 2004, voters could also vote for a candidate – but only if
they also voted for the party (ie. invalid if they only chose
a individual)
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In 2004, only one seat was won through individual vote
Even though 52% of voters supported an individual
2009 electoral law moved further
towards “open list” system
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Voters could vote for candidate or party
Candidates who received 30%+ of a quota in
personal votes would be put into a count for the
allocation of seats
eg. if a party won 3 seats and had 2 candidates
with 30%+, those 2 candidates would take up
seats and the 3rd allocated to the candidate on
No.1 on party list
Greatly increased the chances of election on
personal votes, but still weighting for party list
But…
Constitutional Court ruled the law to be
unconstitutional
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Declared party list weighting to contrary to the
Constitution
Candidates with the largest number of votes
should be allocated seats
This system will greatly increase the no. of voters
who vote for an individual
But it still leaves open the question of what to do
with “party only” votes
Govt seems to be leaving to question to the KPU
Const. Court ruling – the political effects
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Campaign strategies completely changed shifted from party focus to candidate focus
Previously dominated by national leaders, now
by local candidates
 candidates
have demanded their money back from the
party – position on party list no longer a valuable
commodity
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Candidates of same party competing against
each other
 reporting
each other to election oversight body on
alleged campaign violations
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Govt. shifting decision-making responsibility to
KPU has created uncertainty
Electoral District of North Somewhere – District no II
Red Party
Blue Party
Green Party
Yellow Party
White Party
Symbol
Symbol
Symbol
Symbol
Symbol
Candidate 1
Candidate 1
Candidate 1
Candidate 1
Candidate 1
Candidate 2
Candidate 2
Candidate 2
Candidate 2
Candidate 2
Candidate 3
Candidate 3
Candidate 3
Candidate 3
Candidate 3
Candidate 4
Candidate 4
Candidate 4
Candidate 4
Candidate 4
Candidate 5
Candidate 5
Candidate 5
Candidate 5
Candidate 5
Candidate 6
Candidate 6
Candidate 6
Candidate 6
Candidate 7
Candidate 7
Candidate 7
Candidate 8
Other changes: Threshold for winning
parliamentary seats
Only parties that win 2.5% of the total vote
nationally are allocated seats
 A party may win more than 2.5% in several
electoral districts but not win seats
because below national threshold
 This regulation would remove all but one of
the minor parties in the current DPR
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 Crescent
Star Party (PBB) won 2.6% in 2004
Affirmative action for women candidates
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New electoral law says party lists must contain
30% female candidates
The sanction for non-compliance is weak
 But
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all parties have complied
1 in 3 candidates in a list should be female – ie
not all women in “unwinnable” districts – “zipper”
“Zipper” rule was expected to increase chances
for women candidates by placing them high on
the party list
But Const. Court ruling has eliminated the effect
Presidential election system
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Candidates must be nominated by a political
party or coalition of parties
Party or coalition must receive 20% of DPR
seats or 25% of votes to nominate a candidate
Only Golkar & PDIP are likely to receive this
level of support
Small parties will have to join with one of the 2
big parties or form a larger coalition
This will limit the number of candidates
 In
 In
2004 there were 6 candidates
2009 there could only be 4 candidates
Coalition building for presidential candidates
Party C
Party B
Party F
Party A
(eg. Golkar
PDIP)
Party E
Party L
Party K
Party J
Party H
Party D
(eg Dem)
Party P
Party O
Party N
20%
Party M
Party G
(eg PKS)
1
2
3
4
threshold
Presidential elections: factors in coalition-building
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Big party in DPR with low-profile leader (eg
Golkar) needs a ticket with high profile candidate
(2004 Wiranto poor result)
 PDIP
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may be tempted to think it has both
High profile candidate with small party (eg SBY)
needs a ticket with a big party to meet 20%
threshold
One of the two candidates must have strong
financial backing (eg Kalla for SBY)
Balance of nationalist-Islam (eg SBY-Kalla,
Megawati-Hasyim Muzadi, Wiranto-Salahuddin
Wahid)
Regional Representative Council (DPD)
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Two legislative chambers, but not a bicameral
system.
DPD has advisory powers only.
 Can
draft bills on regional matters to submit to the
DPR
 Can submit its opinions to the DPR on bills and on
government policy on regional matters
 But does not pass reject or amend bills
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DPD an unusual combination of strong
legitimacy from direct election but weak powers
DPD – how it is elected
128 seats
 4 seats per province, regardless of size
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Java – population 36 m (9m/member)
 N Maluku – population 1m (250,000/member)
 W.
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DPD Members must be “individuals” – ie
independents, not party representatives
“single non-transferable vote” (SNTV) system
 Voters
vote for one candidate from provincial list
DPD – how it is elected (cont.)
Province of North Somewhere
Candidate 1
Candidate 8
Candidate 15
Candidate 2
Candidate 9
Candidate 16
Candidate 3
Candidate 10
Candidate 17
Candidate 4
Candidate 11
Candidate 18
Candidate 5
Candidate 12
Candidate 19
Candidate 6
Candidate 13
Candidate 20
Candidate 7
Candidate 14
Candidate 21
Regional legislative elections (DPRD)
Elections for provincial & district
legislatures also occur 9 April (ie. 4 votes)
 Elections for governors & district heads
(Pilkada) held separately (E. Java this month)
 Each province has assembly according to
population – 35 to 100 seats
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or more – 100 seats (E.W.C. Java)
 9-11m – 85 seats (Banten)
 1m or less – 35 seats (W. Papua, N.Maluku)
 11m
Presidential election system cont..
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Candidates must stand as a presidential-vice
presidential joint ticket
Internationally, the pair will usually be from the
same party, or close coalition
But all parties are small + threshold law
So candidate pairing is the process by which
parties build coalitions
But this cannot happen until after DPR election
Result is speculation until close before election