IDEAS ON HOW THE CCP CAN SURVIVE
CHINA’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION
THAT WILL HAPPEN AROUND 2020
Prof. Dr. Hugo de GARIS
Contents of Talk
a) Principles of Transitology
b) Applying Transitological Ideas to China
c) Plan for the CCP to Survive China’s Democratic Transition
“TRANSITOLOGY”
(the key word of this talk, google it)
= a branch of political science
that studies the transitions between
one-party dictatorships and multi-party
democracies
a) Principles of Transitology
“Transitology” is a branch of political science that studies the
transition of one party dictatorships to multi party democracies.
Over the past 50 years, about 100 countries have made this
transition, i.e. at about a rate of 2 countries per year.
In 2010, about 120+ countries (of about 200) are democracies.
2/3 of Asian countries are multi party democracies.
Large data bases have been constructed to collect the transition
experiences of these many individual nations.
What has been learned from these 100+ transitions?
a)
The main lesson learned is that a country will not switch from
a one party dictatorship to a multi party democracy with regular
elections, unless it is rich enough,
i.e. it has to pass the “democracy threshold” of about
$6000-$8000 per year per person.
b)
The rise of the middle class is critical. Once a sizable fraction
of the population of a country is university educated, it asserts
its values onto the culture. It demands to be heard and to have
the right to elect its leaders.
If the leaders do a bad job, the middle class insists on the right
to replace them with alternative leaders from another party. This
is the basic idea of Rousseau’s “Social Contract”.
c)
In about 2/3 of the cases of the transitions of the past 20 years,
a “democratic faction” within the ruling dictatorial party, seized
power during a crisis, and then created democratic institutions,
especially a multi party system, rule of law, and periodic elections.
d)
The remaining 1/3 were “people power” transitions, in which
mass demonstrations in the streets pushed the dictatorial party
out of power.
e)
The “democratic faction” approach is generally less violent than
the “people power” approach.
b) Applying Transitological Ideas to China
The transitologists base their ideas on the experiences of about
100 countries, and hence have real authority in their predictions.
What can they predict about the future transition of China to
democracy?
i) China today (2010) is too poor to be a democracy ($3500/yr/p)
China is still about a decade away (at least in the eastern cities)
from being rich enough to have a large enough middle class to
push effectively for democracy.
China has not yet passed the “democracy threshold” of
$6000-$8000/yr/p
ii) However many cities in eastern China will reach this threshold in
about 10 years or so - they will pass the “democracy threshold”.
The richest cities in China, e.g. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai,
Beijing, Xiamen, etc, are already (2010) over this threshold value.
iii) There are about 100-200 million middle class Chinese citizens in
2010. In 5-10 years, this number should rise to over 300 million,
and most of them will be in the eastern cities, which do not have
the right to vote for their leaders, unlike the village peasants in the
central and western parts of China who already elect their village
leaders.
iv) About 200 million Chinese are now rich enough to travel
internationally. Since 2/3 of countries in Asia are now democracies
especially, Taiwan, Japan, etc, these Chinese tourists will be
influenced by the life style and political systems of their neighbors.
Other Factors Pushing China into Democracy
a) The Internet. China has more internet users (Sept 2010, 400M)
than any other country. The internet teaches the Chinese
population that 2/3 of countries are democracies, and that
dictatorships are only for poor countries.
b) Foreign travel. As more 100s of millions of Chinese in the
coming decade travel to democratic countries, they will be
influenced by democratic lifestyles.
c) Neighboring democratic countries. A growing proportion of
countries neighboring China have already become democracies,
which then put moral pressure on China to do the same.
d) Dying beliefs. As Chinese get better educated, they abandon
old (totalitarian) beliefs, e.g. as happened with slavery, witchcraft.
e) Odd Man Out. 90% of the world’s population living outside
China are already living under democratic governments. This puts
powerful moral pressure on China to conform to the world
community’s norms (i.e. democratic government). The Chinese
government is the “odd man out” on the world stage.
f) Punishment. Now that China is the world’s second largest
economy, the world community will increasingly punish the
Chinese government for its massive crimes (the 80 million people
it killed, its laogai (some 1000+ of them across the country), its
suppression of basic human rights. A clear example of this was
the awarding of the Nobel Peace prize to LIU Xiaobo in 2010
by a European country. This was a clear message from the democratic
world community to the Chinese government - “Your values are
considered disgusting by the world community.”
Rest of World
China
Non
Democracy
Democracy
(90%)
Non Democracy
(10%)
China (dictatorship)
USA (democracy)
France (democracy)
UK (democracy)
South Korea (democracy)
Germany (democracy)
Italy (democracy)
South Africa (democracy)
Brazil (democracy)
Japan (democracy)
Argentina (democracy)
Mexico (democracy)
Australia (democracy)
India (democracy)
Poland (democracy)
Canada (democracy)
Russia (democracy)
Turkey (democracy)
Saudi Arabia (soon to be democracy)
EU (democracy)
The G20 Countries
democrat
democrat
democrat democrat democrat
democrat
democrat
dictator
democrat
democrat
Some G20 Presidents
MAO
STALIN
HITLER
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
The 3 Great Tyrants of the 20th Century
and the Number of Millions of People they Killed
The Chinese
government’s
decision to put
Mao’s face on
the RMB is the
moral equivalent
of the Europeans
putting Hitler’s
face on the Euro.
When will the transition to democracy occur in China?
The graph below shows that by about 2040, the whole planet
will be democratic. China will democratize before the Arabs
and Blacks, because it is growing so much faster economically.
1950
86%
Percentage of
Nations
that are
Dictatorships
2001
37%
Year
1950
2001
2040
Percentage of Dictatorial Nations vs. Time
Considering the two arguments given previously, i.e.
a) There will be enough middle class Chinese in the eastern
cities to push for democracy by about 2020.
and
b) The global democratic process predicts that by about 2040,
there will be no one party dictatorships left. Since China is
growing faster than the Black and Arab countries, which are still
non democratic, China will pass the “democratic threshold”
before them, i.e. before 2020, thus it is likely that China will be a democracy within 10-15 years, i.e.
by around 2020.
What consequences will this have for the survival of the CCP?
The CCP has two main options.
a) Retire
b) Reform
a) The Retire Option
If the CCP continues with a policy of “business as usual”, then
it is likely that a “people power” political movement will push the
CCP out of power, probably with some violence, and the CCP
will die, it will retire.
b) The Reform Option
If the CCP wants to survive China’s democratic transition, it will
need to become a democratic party itself. It will have to reform.
Appealing to the CCP’s Self Interest
The various democratic parties of China (currently under CCP
control) should appeal to the CCP’s self interest if the CCP wants
to survive China’s transition to democracy, which is likely to
occur around 2020.
The next generation of CCP leaders (now in their 50s) could
become the leaders of a new democratic party that can advertize
to the Chinese public “Do you want your country run by amateurs, and see the world’s
highest economic growth rate evaporate?”
With a new party name, and new flag, purged of Mao, and corruptors,
these leaders could be “old wine in new bottles”.
The Importance of a “Smooth Transition” Plan for the CCP
One of the major goals of the various Chinese democratic
parties could be the creation of a transitological plan for the CCP
(if it does not already have one).
Such a plan should appeal to the self interest of the leaders of the
CCP, and motivate them to reform their party into a democratic
party.
The alternative for these leaders is to be pushed (violently?) out of
power, and probably before 2020, a mere 10 years away, given
China’s economic growth rate.
A smooth transition from a one-party to a multi-party system will
mean less violence and less chaos for the Chinese people.
c) Plan for the CCP to Survive China’s Democratic Transition
When China becomes a democratic country, that will mean
that “freedom of speech” and “rule of law” will become the norm.
i) With freedom of speech, the horrors committed by the CCP’s
founder, Mao ZeDong, will become widely known. According
to recent biographies (e.g. Chang) he killed about 70 million people,
more than Stalin/Hitler, which makes him history’s greatest tyrant.
The CCP will then have to totally dissociate itself from Mao.
It will need to take his face off the country’s money, and pull down
all portraits and statues of him.
ii) The party will probably have to change its name, so as to give
the Chinese public the message that the party has changed its
policy. An appropriate new title would be the “Chinese Social
Democratic Party (CSDP)”.
“How can the CCP stay in power after the transition to democracy?”
1. Study the internet to find transitological plans for China.
2. Pick the most appropriate, most realistic one.
3. Implement it.
If no such plan exists (hard to imagine) then :-
1. Set a date for national elections, e.g. X years in the future.
2. Allow rival political parties to be formed and give them media
time to make their case.
3. Allow freedom of the press and the internet.
4. Systematically purge and punish the corruptors from the CCP.
and advertise these purges, to give the public the idea that the
CCP is reforming itself vigorously, to stay in power.
6. Make a strong case to the public that the CSDP is the only
party in the country with real experience of government. “Do
you want your country run by amateurs and see the world’s
highest economic growth rate evaporate?”
7. Bring in the rule of law, train more lawyers, make modern
laws, commercial, civil, etc. Modernize the courts.
8. By the end of the X years, the CSDP should be a modern
political party.
9. Hold elections and bring China into the modern world.
The democratization of China, will be one of the greatest political
events of the 21st century. It will allow China to become a
respected member of the world community.
At the present time, the western democracies look upon China, as
poor, dirty, corrupt, lazy, poorly educated, disorganized, and brutal,
& hence is not worthy of respect. It is seen as a “third world nation”.
Once China becomes a democracy, relations with the 2/3 of the
countries in the world that are already democracies, will be much
healthier. Democratic nations do not go to war against each other,
their voting populations do not tolerate it.
It is probable that the 21st century will be China’s. It will become
the “USA” of the 21st century. A necessary step towards that new
dominance is that it become a modern, democratic nation,
respected by the other democratic nations of the world.
Take Home Message
CCP Leaders !
Learn the lessons of transitology !
If you want to stay in power after China becomes a democratic
country, then create a transitological plan now for the CCP, to create
a smooth transition to a democratic China, with the CCP reformed
into a (social) democratic party (CSDP)
If not, then the CCP will be pushed out of power by about 2020
by China’s rising middle class, as has happened all over the world.
China is rapidly approaching the $6000-$8000/yr/p “democratic
threshold”
China’s democratic parties can help the CCP create this plan !
Lemmings and Squirrels
The leaders of the CCP can be divided into two main camps –
“lemmings”
“squirrels”
Lemmings are herd animals that follow each other blindly. They
commit mass suicide by following each other blindly over the cliff.
Squirrels save nuts in the autumn. They plan ahead to survive the
harshness of the winter.
The “CCP lemmings” do not plan for the democratic revolution when
it comes. They are committing suicide. They will kill the CCP.
The “CCP squirrels” strategize for a smooth transition to democracy
by having a plan. They may even win the elections when they come.
XI Jinping
Future president of China
2012- ?
Lemming or Squirrel?
Will he preside over the
CCP’s retirement or its
reform?
Books
a) China’s Democratic Future :
How it will happen and where it will lead
Bruce GILLEY
Columbia University Press, 2004
ISBN 0-231-13084-8
b) Mao : The Unknown Story
Jung CHANG, Jon HALLIDAY,
Knopf, 2005,
ISBN 0-679-42271-4
c) Hungry Ghosts : Mao’s Secret Famine
Jasper BECKER
Owl Books, 1998
ISBN 0-8050-5668-8