Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)
Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)
University of North Carolina (UNC-IE)
ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON)
February 25, 2015

Content
• Revised 3SAQS Phase II 2015 Schedule
– Completion date extended from July to September 2015
• Task 2a: Source Apportionment (SA) Modeling Plan
– Define Geographic SA , SA Plan in March
• Task 5: 2014 Data Analysis and Modeling Plan
– Preliminary approach
• Task 9: Winter Ozone Modeling
– WRF Meteorological Modeling Progress
• Proposed Changes from 2011a to 2011b Base Case
• Tasks 10&11: Preliminary 2014 O&G and Revised 2020
O&G Emissions Update
2

3SAQS Phase II: Tasks 1 and 2
3SAQS Phase II Revised Schedule (2/25/15) – Revise project end date from July to September 2015
Task
1
Name Original Revised
2011 CMAQ Modeling Oct-Nov Oct-Mar
CMAQ 2011a 4km
CMAQ 2011a2 4km
Nov 2014
--
Feb 2015
Mar 2015
Comment
Fire inventories took some time
CAMx BC sens modeling issues in MZ BCs
Use BCs based on CAMx run with GC BCs
2
MPE and Report Nov 2014 Mar 2015 Updating using CMAQ 2011a2 MPE
CAMx/CMAQ Features Nov 2014 Mar 2015 Wiki contrasting features in CMAQ and CAMx
Source Apportionment Oct-Apr
Draft SA Design Nov 2014
Feb-Jul
Mar 2015
Delays in getting the 3SAQS 2011a2 Databases
Preliminary outline in Feb 2015
Final SA Design
Geographic SA
Emissions Sector SA
Detailed 4 km SA
CMAQ 4 km SA
SA Web Tool
--
Jan 2015
Feb 2015
Mar 2015
Apr 2015
Apr 2015
Mar 2015
Apr 2015
May 2015
Jun 2015
Jul 2015
May 2015
After 3SAQS TechCom review
36/12 km Follow WJ, Add Regional Haze metric
36/12 km, CY or FY?
Basins and source categories
Test CMAQ SA and compare with CAMx
CSU to implement prototype ahead of time
3

3SAQS Phase II: Tasks 3 and 4
3SAQS Phase II Revised Schedule (2/25/15) – Revise project end date from July to
September 2015
Task Name
3
4
Original Revised Comment
Sensitivity Tests
GEOS-Chem (GC) BC Sens
2011 O&G Emissions
Vertical Transport
W & D - S & N Deposition
Direct visibility measurements
Oct-Mar Oct-Jul Delays in 2011a database development
Nov 2014 Feb 2015 Better PM2.5 MPE, adopt GC BCs for 2011a2
Feb 2015 Jun 2015 Top Down (2011a2/b?)
Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Alternative Kvs?
MOVES2014
Base 2011b
Feb 2015 Apr 2015 Delays in EPA release of SMOKE-MOVES2014 data
Mar 2015 Jun 2015 CMAQ too? 2020_2011b Update?
Visibility/Deposition Analysis Dec-Mar Feb-May Delayed by 2011a Base Case; wait for 2011a2?
IMPROVE RCFM Visibility Mar 2015 Mar 2015 For 2011a, revise for 2011a2 when ready
Mar 2015 Apr 2015 NADP Wet Dep done, add CASTNET Dry Dep
Mar 2015 May 2015 Lots of work to mimic what instrument sees
4

3SAQS Phase II Revised Schedule (2/25/15) – Revise project end date from July to
September 2015
7
8
Task Name
5
6
Original Revised Comment
2014 Modeling Plan
Draft 2014 Plan
2014 WRF Modeling
2014 WRF Protocol
2014 WRF Modeling
Jan-Feb Feb-Mar
Jan 2015
Mar-May
Mar 2015 May 2015
Apr 2015 Jun 2015
Preliminary 2014 PGM Modeling before 2014 NEI
Mar 2015 Summary at 2/25/2015 meeting
May-Jul Based on Task 5 Plan
2014 WRF Report
2014 Preliminary Emissions
May 2015
Mar-Jul
2014 Preliminary AQ Modeling May-Jul
Jul 2015
Jun-Aug
Jul-Sep
Based on Task 5 Plan
Based on Task 5 Plan
5

3SAQS Phase II Revised Schedule (2/25/15) – Revise project end date from July to
September 2015
Task Name
9
10
11
2011 Winter Modeling
WRF Winter Plan
WRF Winter Report Draft
WRF Winter Report Draft#2
O&G Surveys and Preliminary
2014 O&G Emissions
New O&G surveys for 2014 activity
Preliminary 2014 O&G for
Three-State Basins
Project Management
Original Revised Comment
Oct-Feb Jan-May
Oct 2014 Jan 2015
Jan 2015 Apr 2015
Feb 2015 May 2015
Oct-Jun Jan-Sep
Feb
May
Oct-Jul
Apr
May-Jul
Oct-Sep
Document posted 1/9/2015 review
Revising SOW to reflect latest developments
Surveys tailored to Basins
Projection 2011 O&G using IHS (no surveys)
Continuous
6

Exit to Presentations
•
– Define Geographic SA , SA Plan in March
•
– Preliminary approach
•
– WRF Meteorological Modeling Progress
7

2011a to 2011b Base Case Update
• Summary of Base2011a Inputs
– CAMx V6.1 36/12/4 km -- CB6r2 chemistry
– 36 CONUS BCs MOZART GCM
– WRF 2011 36/12/4 km Meteorology
– 2011 NEI Version 1 (NEIv1) emissions
• Large EGUs updated with day-specific hourly CEM
• WRAP enhanced MEGAN for biogenic sources
• LNOx, WBD and Sea Salt
• PMDETAIL fire emissions for WF, Rx and Ag
• Preliminary 3SAQS O&G emissions for Basins in CO, UT and
WY
– CAMx 2011a 36/12/4 km MPE
• Draft Report 11/10/2014
8

2011a to 2011b Base Case Update
2011 Boundary Conditions (BCs)
• CAMx 2011 GEOS-Chem (GC) BC Sensitivity Run
– Markedly improved performance in crustal PM species
– Some smaller degradation in MPE for other species
– GC BCs adopted for Base2011a2 base case and used in additional sensitivity tests
2011 Winter Meteorology
• WRF meteorology results on all three 3SAQS modeling domains with improvements for snow cover, albedo, and boundary layer dynamics during the winter months (Jan-Mar, Nov-Dec)
9

2011a to 2011b Base Case Update
•
– Engines, heaters, tanks, pumps, loading
•
– Not part of WRAP Phase II surveys so not in 2011a
– Add fracing engines based on BLM, EIS docs
– D-J, Piceance, Uinta, NSJ and SSJ
10

2011a to 2011b Base Case Update
Oil and Gas Emissions in Montana/Dakotas
• New O&G emissions developed for the Great
Plains/Williston Basins WRAP methodology for 2011 and
2015 years.
– The WRAP 2011 O&G emissions will be used in place of 2011
NEIv1 for the 3SAQS 2011b.
2011 3SAQS On-road Mobile
• Process the NEI2011v2 MOVES2014 data through SMOKE using the 3SAQS meteorology and ancillary data
– Compare these results with the SMOKE/MOVES2010b results used for 3SAQS 2011 Base A and with the EPA
SMOKE/MOVES2014 results distributed with the 2011 NEIv2
11

2011a to 2011b Base Case Update
2011 NEIv2 Updates to 2011 NEIv1
• CEM Point Sources
– Added missing or incorrect ORIS and boiler ID fields
– Add fields to the non-EGU inventory to match sources with the hourly CEM data
• Results in the addition of several sources to the CEM sector
– Replac annual NOx and SO2 inventory for CEM sources with the sum of the hourly CEM values
• Non-CEM Point Sources
– Updates to the non-CEM point inventory resulted in the move of several sources into the CEM processing sector
– Included 2011 ethanol production facilities that were missing in the 2011v1 inventory
12

2011a to 2011b Base Case Update
2011 NEIv2 Updates to 2011 NEIv1
• Fugitive Dust
– Backed out the meteorology/precipitation adjustments from the paved and unpaved dust inventory
• Nonpoint/Area
– Split the inventory into fugitive dust, agricultural sources, nonpoint-Oil & Gas, residential wood combustion sources, commercial marine, and class 1/class 2 rail
– Aggregated daily agricultural fire inventory to monthly values
• Class 1 & 2 Commercial Marine
– Replaced the Midwest RPO (MWRPO) states inventory with the 2010 MWRPO inventory
13

2011a to 2011b Base Case Update
2011 NEIv2 Updates to 2011 NEIv1
• Class 3 Commercial Marine
– Replaced projection 2011 point sources with 2011NEI-based data
– Replaced MWRPO states inventory with the 2010 MWRPO inventory
• Non-Road Mobile
– Replaced annual inventory with monthly inventories
– Small VOC adjustments to sources in CA
– Use 2011 TX inventory apportioned to months NEI2011 TX Non-Road
• On-Road Mobile
– Year 2011 based on emissions factors from MOVESTier3FRM
– For CA and TX, merge 2011 state data w/ EPA MOVES results
14

2011a to 2011b Base Case Update
2011 Fire Emissions
• 2011a used fire emissions from the PMDETAIL
JFSP study.
• PMDETAIL is updating their 2011 fire emissions estimates that will be used for 3SAQS Base2011b as follows:
• Update fire emission factors (EFs) using the latest
EFs survey data:
– Results in significant increase in fire VOC emissions
– Still use biomass burned from CONSUME
– Supports VBS SOA module
15

3SAQS Pilot Study – 2011b O&G
•
– Tribal MNSR data mining for the Uinta Basin
– Data from oil and gas well site registrations by operators to EPA Region 8
– Data mining for emission calculation inputs – i.e. emission factors, device counts, control fractions
– Basin-level inventory developed for the tribal areas of the Uinta Basin
– Fracing engines being added to all basins in study area
16
16

3SAQS Phase II – 2014 O&G Surveys
•
•
•
– Coordinate with UTDAQ on ongoing state EI development work
•
– Coordinate with BLM, NMED, SUIT, CDPHE on existing efforts to inventory North & South San Juan
17

3SAQS Phase II – 2014 O&G Surveys
•
– Originally planned to use RPSEA study, now unlikely to get data from this related project
•
– Will develop new survey instrument targeting area sources (not captured by APENs)
•
– Will use representative survey data from other basins
(no new surveys)
•
18
18

•
– Data from States, Tribes and EPA
– 2014 IHS data
– Project 2011b O&G to 2014 for missing sources
– Needed before 2014 Surveys are available
•
19 19

2014 Modeling Platform
•
•
– WRF modeling protocol
– Combine winter configuration from 2011b with non-winter configuration from 2011a
– WRF 2014 MPE report
20

2014 Modeling Platform
•
– Inventory development plan for review by cooperators
– MOVES - use 2014 meteorology data developed under Task
6 and fleet information collected from Colorado, Utah, and
Wyoming to run MOVES in emission factor mode for 2014.
SMOKE-MOVES2014 processor will be used to generate on-road mobile source emission inputs.
– EGUs and large point sources - collect year 2014
Continuous Emission Monitor (CEM) data from CAMD for large point sources
– Biogenic – run MEGAN with 2014 meteorology
21

2014 Modeling Platform
– Agricultural ammonia – collect 2014 CAFO locations, animal population data, and county emissions factors from the states and run the Carnegie Mellon
University NH3 model
– Methane – augment methane inventory with available data
– Dust – Review available approaches and select one for generating windblown dust emissions.
– Fires – Use best available source at time of modeling
22

2014 Modeling Platform
•
– 2014 Air quality modeling protocol
– CAMx and CMAQ run simultaneously on 36/12km modeling domains
– Air quality trends report comparing 2008, 2011, and 2014 ozone, PM, visibility, and deposition trends in the three-state region
•
23