PALERANG COUNCIL LONG TERM FINANCIAL PLAN 2016-2026 As amended on 14 December 2015 for public exhibition until 30 January 2016 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 4 1.1 1.2 What is a Long Term Financial Plan ............................................................. 5 Council Profile .............................................................................................. 6 2. FINANCIAL STRATEGY ........................................................................................... 7 3. LONG TERM FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY ........................................................... 9 4. ASSUMPTIONS AND INDICES ................................................................................10 5. SCENARIOS .............................................................................................................14 6. KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS .......................................................................17 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS .........................................................................................25 2 APPENDIX A ORIGINAL - LTFP BASE CASE CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT & FUNDED RESULT APPENDIX B ORIGINAL - LTFP BASE CASE CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION APPENDIX C ORIGINAL - LTFP BASE CASE CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW STATEMENT APPENDIX D ORIGINAL - LTFP BASE CASE CONSOLIDATED CAPITAL PROGRAM APPENDIX E ORIGINAL - LTFP BASE CASE CONSOLIDATED RESERVE BALANCES APPENDIX F SCENARIO 1 – “DETERIORATE” - LTFP GENERAL FUND ONLY INCOME STATEMENT & FUNDED RESULT APPENDIX G SCENARIO 1 – “DETERIORATE” - LTFP GENERAL FUND ONLY STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION APPENDIX H SCENARIO 1 – “DETERIORATE” - LTFP GENERAL FUND ONLY CASH FLOW STATEMENT APPENDIX I SCENARIO 2 – “STABILISE” - LTFP GENERAL FUND ONLY INCOME STATEMENT & FUNDED RESULT APPENDIX J SCENARIO 2 – “STABILISE” - LTFP GENERAL FUND ONLY STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION APPENDIX K SCENARIO 2 – “STABILISE” - LTFP GENERAL FUND ONLY CASH FLOW STATEMENT APPENDIX L SCENARIO 2 – “STABILISE” - LTFP SRV PROGRAM OF WORKS APPENDIX M SCENARIO 2 – “STABILISE” - LTFP FIT FOR THE FUTURE RATIOS APPENDIX N SCENARIO 3 – “IMPROVE” - LTFP GENERAL FUND ONLY INCOME STATEMENT & FUNDED RESULT APPENDIX O SCENARIO 3 – “IMPROVE” - LTFP GENERAL FUND ONLY STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION APPENDIX P SCENARIO 3 – “IMPROVE” - LTFP GENERAL FUND ONLY CASH FLOW STATEMENT APPENDIX Q SCENARIO 3 – “IMPROVE” - LTFP SRV PROGRAM OF WORKS APPENDIX R SCENARIO 3 – “IMPROVE” - LTFP FIT FOR THE FUTURE RATIOS 3 1. INTRODUCTION The Long Term Financial Plan (LTFP) is an important part of Council’s Strategic Planning process that provides a means to forecast Council’s capacity to provide financial resources to meet the objectives outlined in the Community Strategic Plan (CSP). The CSP 2014 - 2024 defines a sustainable Vision for Palerang and sets out seven Key Categories that Council will follow to achieve the needs of our community over the next 20 years. The seven Key Categories are: Natural environment Local economy Community and culture Rural and urban development Recreation and open space Infrastructure and transport Local governance and finance Each is supported by a series of priorities, strategies and indicators of success that form the actions which will deliver progress over the next 10 years towards successful completion. The LTFP really tests the community’s aspirations outlined in the CSP against financial reality. However it is not intended to be a document that specifically indicates to what services or proposals funds should be allocated; rather it addresses areas that impact on the Council’s ability to fund its services and capital works, while living within its means and ensuring long term financial sustainability. The Long Term Financial Plan (LTFP) is a requirement under the Integrated Planning and Reporting framework for NSW Local Government and forms part of the Resourcing Strategy. 4 1.1 What is a Long Term Financial Plan Council’s LTFP forecasts the long term financial position of council based on current levels of services and service delivery applying Council’s existing policies and taking into account Council’s CSP. The LTFP is a decision making and problem solving tool that supports Council and the community to determine how Council will fund the CSP into the future and remain sustainable. It provides the ability to scenario test options and assesses the impact on Council’s revenue, operational and capital expenditure forecasts, reserves and asset balances. It is a requirement that the LTFP include the following key components: Projected income and expenditure, balance sheet and cash flow statement; Planning assumptions used; Methods of monitoring financial performance; Sensitivity analysis; Financial modelling for different scenarios. The LTFP must be reviewed annually by Council as part of preparing the Operational Plan each year and have a minimum of a 10 year outlook to ensure this aligns with the CSP. A more detailed review of the LTFP will occur every 4 years with the election of each new Council and their review of the Delivery Program and CSP. Council is proposing to address its long term financial sustainability by increasing its revenue stream with a proposed Special Rate Variation. This amended Long Term Financial Plan includes the revised forecasts for the 10 year LTFP to reflect the financial position of council with a proposed Special Rate Variation of 9.5% (comprising 2.5% estimated rate peg plus 7% special rate) for five years 2016/17-2020/21, held permanently in the rates. Additional forecasts are provided to reflect an alternative scenario based on a 7.5% SRV (comprising 2.5% estimated rate peg plus 5% special rate) and Base Case (2.5% rate peg only) From 2022 these revised forecasts reflect rate increases limited to the estimated 2.5% annual rate peg as determined by the State Government. UPDATE: The rate peg for 2016/17 has been determined at 1.8% and subsequently reduces the proposed Special Rate Variation in 2016/17. The estimated rate peg still applies for future years. The revised scenarios based on the actual rate peg are reflected in this amended plan. The purpose of the proposed Special Rate Variation is to provide long term sustainability and the additional funds raised to be applied to identified community priority projects and services. 5 1.2 Council Profile Palerang Council was proclaimed on 11 February 2004 and covers 5,147square kilometres and has a 2014 estimated population of 15,510. While the word shire is not officially part of our name, we typically use shire as short hand for the official terminology “local government area”. The Palerang local government area comprises the villages of Bungendore, Braidwood and Captains Flat, along with the outlying villages of Araluen, Mongarlowe, Majors Creek and Nerriga. It also encompasses the settlements of Bywong, Burra, Royalla, Hoskinstown, Rossi, Carwoola, Stoney Creek and Wamboin. Sharing its western boundary with the ACT and with the expansion of Canberra in the 1970s, the western ranges of Palerang have become home to the largest rural residential population in NSW. Comprising allotments of 2-16 hectares, over half of Palerang’s population now resides in these areas, covering the localities of Sutton, Bywong, Wamboin, Burra, Urila and parts of Carwoola and Royalla. These areas have generally been developed on marginal quality farmland, attracting residents who are predominantly employed in the adjacent urban centres of Canberra and Queanbeyan. Over the years, with interests in land conservation and rehabilitation, the new residents have transformed the overrun, open grasslands into a picturesque landscape. Without formal village centres, communities tend to have been built around Rural Fire Service centres, and local community halls that host a range of community events and activities that enrich the social fabric of these areas. The population of Palerang local government area was estimated at 14 635 at 30 June 2010. The annual population growth in the period 2005 to 2010 is estimated at 3.5%. During that same time, the NSW population grew by in the order of 1.4% per annum, making Palerang the fastest growing local government area for that period. For the financial year 2009-2010 it is estimated that the annual growth rate was 2.2% making Palerang the eleventh fastest growing local government area in NSW for that year. 6 2. FINANCIAL STRATEGY Council’s key objective when managing its financial resources is to remain financially sustainable. Council’s LTFP needs to demonstrate our long term capacity to deliver the Strategic Objectives in the CSP, Delivery Program and Operational Plan, while remaining financially sustainable. Financial sustainability is achieved when service and infrastructure levels are delivered according to a long term plan without the need to significantly increase rates or significantly reduce services. This LTFP describes base line forecasts that reflect Council’s CSP and continuity of the existing Revenue Policy. The indications are that this path is not sustainable in the longer term and will require intervention in the coming years to ensure Council’s long term sustainability. This will be a combination of different actions to reduce the cost of service delivery, increase revenue, reducing services, organisational constraint, resource sharing and changes to existing policies. While the short term financial capacity of the Council is considered sound there are some indications that council is not earning sufficient revenue to maintain current service levels and assets over the long term. This is because the current levels of depreciation indicate that Council’s assets are depreciating at a rate that is not matched by what Council is funding for their replacement. This tells us that we need to be putting more Council funds into reserves for replacing our assets that is, more roads resealing, stormwater pipes replacement, replacing old water mains and renewing sewer mains. Council has commenced addressing this issue as part of the development of the Asset Management Plans and the ongoing development of this LTFP. This is indicated by the income statement and cash graphs below: 7 Council’s Auditor confirmed that Council’s financial position had improved and was considered sound as at the end of June 2015. The ratios below support that the current financial position has improved for the Council over recent years and in particular the strengthening reserve position suggests that Council is responsibly addressing its long term position. There is no doubt that Council’s position has been influenced by the poor amalgamation process of 2004 which had a significant impact on revenue. However, over the next 5-20 years Council will continue to face many challenges that will require strong financial leadership and creative solutions to meet its aspirations. The key challenges will include: Addressing Council’s medium to long term shortfall in the funding for infrastructure assets to ensure that levels of service can be adequately maintained. Ensuring that there is sufficient income earned over the life of Council assets to allow for their replacement and the continuity of the service for which it is used. Meeting expectations from all areas including community, service users and government by ensuring standards across key services keep pace with demand and in balance with the capacity to fund these operations. Demands associated with the management of climate change and environmental sustainability. Unstable financial environment following the global financial crisis impacting on investments and its revenue flows Increasing costs of some key suppliers such as energy, bitumen, concrete and water. Local Government reform and the potential for further amalgamations. 8 3. LONG TERM FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY Over recent years financial sustainability in local government has been a major cause for ongoing concern as requests from communities for expanded services have increased beyond those traditionally provided. The historical failure of all tiers of government to properly maintain and renew assets has also contributed to the backlog of infrastructure provision. The demand for expanded services has not always been matched by revenue streams and improved operational efficiencies, as resources have been diverted from traditional areas of local government expenditure. Rate pegging constraints, cost shifting, uncertainty over grant income, caps on local developer contributions and increased maintenance due to an ageing infrastructure network all contribute to limit the ability of a council to plan for its future with high levels of certainty. So how does Council achieve long term financial sustainability? Understand its existing position, the key drivers and the policies that create that position (LTFP) Understand the consequences of continuing with existing policies into the future (Base Case in LTFP) Calculate the likely consequences of pursuing different policies (Scenarios in LTFP) Determine the parameters that meet the council’s financial strategy goals and choose the policy settings that provide the best chance of achieving those goals (Council decision process – setting KPI’s) Regularly measure progress and effectiveness of those policies and adjust as necessary (LTFP integration with Integrated Planning Framework) To determine if a Council can achieve long term financial sustainability, Council has selected a range of financial indicators to help monitor and assess both Council’s financial position as well as financial performance. These are explained in more detail in Section 6 Key Performance Indicators. 9 4. ASSUMPTIONS AND INDICES The Long Term Financial Plan is based on the 2015/16 General Ledger Original Budget that is factored by a range of assumptions to forecast the 10 year financial position. The comparative column identified as the current budget is the 2014/15 General Ledger Qtr3 Budget adopted by Council. The indices were derived from a number of sources like the Local Government Award, Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) recommendations for various utilities and rates pegging, plus Council’s actual data over a 10 year period. Variation in actual prices and cost to Council compared to the above indices will impact on financial results. The extent of this impact will depend on the size of the income or expenditure that is subject to the indices, the extent of the variation, and degree to which Council is able to actively mitigate the variation. Council will review its indices at least annually and analyse the impacts of these changes. Significant changes will be addressed as they become known. The key assumptions and indices are: 10 Long Term Model Indexation Assumptions Index Description Rate Pegging Annual Charge User Charges Fees Employee 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Rate % Rate % Rate % Rate % Rate % Rate % Rate % Rate % Rate % 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Super 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% CPI 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Utility Insurance Road Cost 2.5% 3.0% 4.4% 2.5% 3.0% 5.5% 2.5% 3.0% 4.8% 2.5% 3.0% 4.1% 2.5% 3.0% 0.8% 2.5% 3.0% 3.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.7% Manual No Index General Waste No Recycling General Waste with Recycling 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 10.5% 9.5% 8.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% Comments Based on IPART for 2015/16 Based on average LGCI Based on average LGCI Based on average LGCI Based on average Award Increases Based on super guarantee movements plus award TCorp 10 year CPI forecast issued November 2013 Estimated forecast Estimated forecast Based on Road & Bridge Construction Cost Index Forecasts No movement manual input Based on LTP for Waste 8% inc plus 0.5% growth Based on LTP Waste 8% inc plus 2% growth 11 Rates and Annual Charges Rate revenue projections are based on the application of the maximum permissible increase and an allowance for growth. Rate increases in NSW have been determined by the State Government since 1977 through an approach known as rate pegging. In 2011, the responsibility for determining the annual rate pegging increase was delegated to IPART. Councils are advised of the permissible increase annually in December each year. The rate peg is based on the previous year movement in the Local Government Cost Index that was established by IPART less a productivity coefficient. Council has assumed that the existing rates and charges structure will continue to apply in the future and be increased by the Local Government Cost Index plus a general growth factor of 0.5%. This is based on historical and future expectations of growth. User Charges and Fees Many Council services charge fees for the provision of the service. When setting the level of fees and charges as part of Council’s Operational Plan, consideration is given to the nature of the service and any community service obligation as well as wider policy objectives such as equity and social justice considerations. Council’s fees and charges pricing basis vary according to which category the fee or charge falls under, either; zero cost recovery, partial cost recovery, full cost recovery, regulatory, reference pricing and rate of return pricing. Fees and charges have been forecast to be maintained at existing service levels and applied a general increase of 3.7% to most categories, which reflects the forecast Local Government Cost Index reflecting cost increases to Council’s. Grants and Contributions Grants and contributions provide a significant source of revenue for Council. These can be of a capital or operational nature and may be provided for general or specific purposes. Any one off grant or contributions have been removed from future year forecasts. Section 94 income projections are based on the adopted section 94 plan and anticipated timing of receipts including predications on when the new developments will be occurring. There are a number of other grants that are fixed over agreed periods (Roads to Recovery grant) and in these cases expenditure has been set to match the agreed grant funds for the specified period. All other ongoing grants have been forecast to increase in line with the average increase for prior years (2.5%). Any changes in the timing or quantum of these grants and contributions may have a direct impact on the timing of projects that are dependent on this type of funding. 12 Other Revenue This predominantly includes property rental income and fines. This has been forecast to increase in line with CPI. Employee Costs Employee costs includes the payment of salary and wages, overtime, casual labour, labour on costs such as annual leave, superannuation, workers compensation, long service leave, associated costs such as training, protective clothing and fringe benefits tax. The LTFP projections are based on the current employee establishment levels and service levels as a base, however incorporate service growth in some areas as required. Wage costs have been indexed by the Award index for FY2, while the average award increase of the last 10 years has been applied to the remaining future year forecasts (3.0%). Borrowing Costs Loan repayments are modelled based on the existing loan programs that are already in place. The capital works program identifies a number of projects that are proposed to be funded via new loans. Loan borrowings and terms were based on the rates as applied to the current borrowing program being 6% over 25 years. However in practice most loans are renewable every 5 to 10 years. This amended LTFP reflects additional loans and repayments associated with new projects identified for funding by the proposed Special Rate Variation. Depreciation As an industry, Local Government has recognised it is faced with an asset maintenance backlog and the need to provide for ongoing asset replacement. The consumption of these assets is represented by deprecation which is based on expected asset lives, condition assessments and valuations. While the maturity of this information is improving, it is still not definitive and many of the assumptions are unproven due to the nature of this exercise. In addition, changing technologies may impact on renewal and maintenance costs. Ongoing refinement of these forecasts may result in revised useful lives which will impact on deprecation expenditure. At this stage the depreciation rates of Council’s existing policy has been applied for the future years. Council has incorporated future year depreciation that will apply to the capital program as assets are commissioned for use. At this stage asset revaluations have not yet been incorporated into the base case model, which while increasing the value of Council assets this will also impact depreciation levels in future years. 13 Materials and Contracts Material and contract expenses have also been forecast to increase based on CPI. However Council has also taken into account projects that are considered one off in nature and therefore not carried these costs through to future years. Utility and insurance costs have been identified separately and have been forecast to increase higher than CPI as shown in the table above. 5. SCENARIOS This LTFP scenario is a “benchmark” position to indicate the long term financial implications if council continues to operate within the same policies and practices as currently employed. The financial position is dependent on the activities council undertakes and therefore we still need to model a range of scenarios and then assess these against the key performance indicators. It is intended that Council will move forward into the 2015/16 financial year with a base line scenario and will then develop a revised set of scenarios looking at achieving financial sustainability for the consideration of the community early in the new financial year. These new scenarios will form the first stage of the community consultation process on how Council can move towards meeting financial sustainability. A key scenario will be the sustainable scenario which will reflect the base case scenario plus additional capital expenditure required to either maintain the current standard of the infrastructure assets, or bring the existing assets up to a satisfactory condition and also achieve financial sustainability. Council has ageing assets with significant asset management responsibilities relative to its income base. The Asset Management plans will set out the optimal schedule of proposed asset maintenance, renewal and replacement necessary to achieve the specified service levels while minimising asset life cycle costs. Proposed Special Rate Variation 2016 – 2021 Council proposes to apply for a Special Rate Variation (SRV) for the five years 2016/17 – 2020/21. In December 2015 the State Government advised that the rate peg is 1.8% for 2016/17. This Draft Long Term Financial Plan (as amended) has been updated to reflect the actual rate peg for 2016/17. Future years are maintained on an estimated rate peg of 2.5% in accordance with advice by the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal. This Draft Long Term Financial Plan (as amended) provides three scenarios reflecting a “Base Case” and two options for special rate variation. The scenarios reflect the actual rate peg as recently determined at 1.8% for 2016/17 and future years maintain the estimated rate peg of 2.5%. 14 Therefore three General Fund scenarios are included in the amended LTFP 2016-2026: Scenario 1: Base Case (“Deteriorate”) – annual increase to general rates is limited to the 1.8% rate peg as determined for 2016/17 and future years at an estimated 2.5% rate peg. Scenario 1 is a “benchmark” position to indicate the long term financial implications if council continues to operate within the same policies and practices as currently employed. Highlights: Operating Performance Ratio achieved 2024/25 No new works Scenario 2: Financial Sustainability through a Proposed Special Rate Variation (“Stabilise”) – annual increase to general rates by proposed Special Rate Variation for five years, as follows: 2016/17: 6.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 5% special rate) 2017/18 – 2020/21: 7.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 5% special rate) each year. The increases are to be held permanently in the rates and following this five year period (i.e. from 2022) the annual increase to general rates is limited to the estimated 2.5% rate peg. The additional revenue stream raised by the proposed SRV is to be applied to loan repayments and seed funding for identified community priority projects and services as reflected in this amended Long Term Financial Plan. Highlights: Operating Performance Ratio achieved 2019/20 Infrastructure Backlog Ratio achieved 2019/20 $18,927,427 in new capital works and asset renewal $8,043,944 additional operating expenditure $4,550,000 new loans $1,064,848 loan interest $767,260 SRV funds unexpended at year 10, required for loan repayments in years 11 & part year 12 Loan repayments for years 12-15 to be funded from additional rate revenue retained from SRV Scenario 3: Financial Sustainability through a Proposed Special Rate Variation (“Improve”) – annual increase to general rates by proposed Special Rate Variation for five years, as follows: 2016/17: 8.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 7% special rate) 2017/18 – 2020/21: 9.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 7% special rate) each year. The increases are to be held permanently in the rates and following this five year period (i.e. from 2022) the annual increase to general rates is limited to the estimated 2.5% rate peg. The additional revenue stream raised by the proposed SRV is to be applied to loan repayments and seed funding for identified community priority projects and services as reflected in this amended Long Term Financial Plan. Highlights: Operating Performance Ratio achieved 2019/20 Infrastructure Backlog Ratio achieved 2018/19 15 $32,088,711 in new capital works and asset renewal $9,650,618 additional operating expenditure $11,600,000 new loans $2,608,766 loan interest All SRV funds expended by year 10 Loan repayments for years 11-15 to be funded from additional rate revenue retained from SRV Scenario 3 is PREFERRED for long term financial sustainability. 16 6. KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS The financial indicators have been selected to address operational liquidity, fiscal responsibility and financial sustainability goals across short, medium and long-term time frames. The indicators will highlight projected actual performance, showing in green for the years it is forecast that they will be achieved, orange for the years where projected performance is satisfactory, and red for the years where projected performance is outside its target range. less any internally or externally restricted cash amounts (for example water and sewer funds, restricted unspent grants etc). The result is what cash is available to Council for use in the day to day operations of the Council. Council’s target is to maintain a level of $50K (green), a result greater than $10K will be considered satisfactory (orange), while a result lower will be classified as unsatisfactory (red) and will have immediate cash sustainability issues. Again the base case scenario indicates that there is room for improvement in the indicators and the Council will need to develop further scenarios and strategies to meet the KPI targets. The KPI results of the base case scenario are presented below. Operational Liquidity (short term focus) The Funds result (Budget Result) ensures that Council’s spending in each year is limited by its revenue and other sources of funds used to make payments. This remains an important indicator for short term financial stability. While Council has an operating deficit, it has been able to ensure that its funds result has remained balanced (cash inflows compared to cash outflows). By holding a level of available funds and planning for at a minimum breakeven funds results ensures that Council can make payments as required. Council’s target is achieving an annual $100k funded surplus (green) while a balanced budget is considered satisfactory (orange) and a deficit position is unsatisfactory (red). The Available Funds (unrestricted cash) assess the adequacy of working capital and Council’s ability to satisfy our financial obligations in the short term. This result is calculated by taking the total cash and investments position 17 The Rates and Annual Charges Outstanding Ratio assesses the impact of uncollected rates and charges on Council’s liquidity and the adequacy of recovery efforts. The ratio is calculated by taking the total outstanding rates and annual charges (including interest raised) as a percentage of total rates collectable. The rates collectable amount represents what was outstanding from the prior year plus the new amounts levied for the current year. Council has set the following policy targets for the outstanding rates and charges ratio of 6% (green), with satisfactory performance being under 10% (orange), while any result greater is considered unsatisfactory (red). This policy target will be reviewed annually as part of the adoption of the LTFP. The Unrestricted Current Ratio assesses the adequacy of working capital and Council’s ability to satisfy obligations in the short term for the unrestricted activities of Council. The ratio is calculated by dividing the total current assets (less all external restrictions) by the total current liabilities (less specific purpose liabilities). Council’s target is to maintain levels at a benchmark of 1.5 or better (green), while a ratio of 1 or better will be considered satisfactory (orange), and any result less than 1 will be considered unsatisfactory (red). 18 The Cash Expense Ratio is another liquidity ratio that indicates the number of months that Council can continue to paying for its immediate expenses without additional cash inflow. Fiscal Responsibility (elected term focus) The ratio is calculated by dividing the total cash and cash equivalents by total expenses (excluding depreciation and interest costs. The Adjusted Operating Surplus assesses whether or not Council generates enough revenue to cover operating costs (including the cost of replacing assets reflected through depreciation). The ratio is calculated by taking the operating result (before capital) as a percentage of operating revenue (excluding capital). Council’s target is to maintain levels at a benchmark of 3 months or better (green), while a result of 2 months or better will be considered satisfactory (orange), and any result less than 2 months will be considered unsatisfactory (red). Council’s long term target is a result greater than 0% (green), a result better than -10% is satisfactory (orange), while a result outside of these factors will be considered unsatisfactory (red). 19 The Own Source Operating Revenue Ratio measures fiscal flexibility or reliance on external funding sources. Council’s financial flexibility improves the higher the level of its own source revenue. The ratio is calculated by taking the total rates, utilities and charges as a percentage of total operating revenue. Council’s target is to maintain levels results at 60% (green), while a result of 40% or better will be considered satisfactory (orange), and any result below 40% will be considered unsatisfactory (red). The Debt Service Ratio demonstrates the cost of servicing Council’s annual debt obligations as a proportion of available revenue. The ratio is calculated by taking the total principal and interest loan payments as a percentage of operating revenue (excluding capital and specific purpose grants and contributions). Council’s target is to maintain levels under the Local Government benchmark 10% (green), while a ratio of less than 12% will be considered satisfactory (orange), and any result exceeding this result will be considered unsatisfactory (red). 20 Total Debt as a percentage of Operating Revenue indicates the significance of total borrowings compared to the period’s income. A council with total debt in excess of its total revenue would be unable to meet all debt commitments from revenue should they be required to be repaid all at once. The ratio is calculated by taking Council’s total outstanding debt (loans and/or finance leases) as a percentage of total operating revenue. Council’s target is 50% or less (green), while between 50% and 85% is satisfactory (orange) and anything over 85% is unsatisfactory (red). service leave). The ratio is calculated by taking the balance of the ELE internal cash reserve as a percentage of the total leave liability. Council’s existing ELE funding policy is as follows: o Fund 100% of annual leave liability for all employees o Fund 100% of long service leave liability for employees over the age of 58. For all other employees fund 33% of the LSL liability. Council has set the target ratio to reflect the existing ELE policy, which equates to maintaining a 70% or greater ratio (Green), or greater than 50% will be considered satisfactory (orange), while anything under this will be considered unsatisfactory (red). The Funding Adequacy Ratio for Employee Leave Entitlements (ELE) helps determine if Council is adequately funding employee leave entitlements (annual leave or long 21 The Cash Assets Ratio is a cash liquidity position indicator of whether or not Council is in a cash position to be able to respond to opportunities and unforeseen circumstances. The ratio is calculated by taking total cash and investments as a percentage of total operating revenue. Council’s target is 100% or greater (green), while greater than 70% is satisfactory (orange) and anything under 70% is unsatisfactory (red). Financial Sustainability (long term intergenerational focus) The Capital Expenditure Ratio indicates the extent to which a Council is forecasting to expand its asset base with Capital expenditure spent on both new assets, and replacement and renewal of existing assets. The ratio is calculated by taking the total spend on capital projects as a percentage of total depreciation. Council’s benchmark is a 110% (green) while a satisfactory Result is greater than 80% and anything less than this result is considered unsatisfactory (red). 22 The Buildings and Infrastructure Renewal ratio assesses the rate at which these assets are being renewed relative to the rate at which they are being depreciated. The ratio is calculated by taking the total spend on asset renewal projects as a percentage of total depreciation for those asset classes (this includes buildings and infrastructure assets like roads stormwater etc). Council’s benchmark is a 100% (green) while a satisfactory Result is greater than 80% (orange) and anything under 80% is considered unsatisfactory (red). This ratio is used to encourage Council’s to shift their focus on asset renewal for existing services rather than focusing on building new assets or providing new services. 23 24 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LTFP are not designed to predict that actual costs of the future with accuracy but need to be capable of providing a base upon which decisions can be made and changing environments can be assessed. Sensitivity analysis is a way to determine the impact of various scenarios on council’s plans and other variables within the plan, similar to a ‘what if’ analysis. Council has elected to focus on some key income and expense categories to highlight the potential impact across the future years for each fund (General, Water and Sewer) if there are variations outside those allowed within the base case scenario assumptions. The key types that have been selected for analysis include: Ordinary Rates – largest general fund source of revenue which is regulated via rate pegging. Investment Revenue – general purpose only (this excludes interest on developer contributions on the basis that these funds are restricted for specific purposes anyway). Financial Assistance Grant – a key annual funding source for the general fund. The adverse movement in the current year highlights the importance of this revenue source. Water User and Annual Charges – largest water fund revenue source regulated and set by Council. Sewer User and Annual Charges – largest sewer fund revenue source regulated and set by Council. Employee Costs – largest expenditure type across each fund. Insurance Costs – a significant expenditure type that has seen increases above CPI in the prior years. Power and Heating Costs - a significant expenditure type that has seen large increases in recent years. Loan interest expense – another key expense type that will vary depending on loan interest rates achieved at the time of loan draw down. The analysis below shows the impact on the Income Statements net operating result prior to capital, if all categories were to move by 1% in an adverse manner. In other words each income type was to reduce by 1% and each expense type was to increase by 1%. While there may be scenarios where some types increase, others decrease and all by varying amounts, the tables below really highlight that the three types that pose the greatest risk or impact on the Councils financial position if there are significant variations are; the ordinary rates, financial assistance grant and employee costs. For the base case scenario Council has assumed that rate pegging (excluding growth) will be 2.5% each year and the SRV Scenario is based on the proposed 9.5% Special Rate Variation over five years from 2016/17 held permanently in the rates. An alternative scenario is also included based on a proposed 7.5% Special Rate Variation over five years from 2016/17 held permanently in the rates. Financial Assistance Grants are not increased by annual CPI in years 1 and 2 due to a 3 year indexation freeze by the Federal Government which is due to expire after 2016/17. Employee costs increase by an award increase estimated at 2.8% each year. The tables below provide a good guide on the 25 dollar impact on the Council result depending on the variation that could occur. Council will continue to monitor the LTFP each year and refine the assumptions and indices that are applied within the model. 26 27 APPENDIX A Original - LTFP Model Consolidated Income Statement and Funded Result 28 29 APPENDIX B Original - LTFP Model Consolidated Statement of Financial Position 30 31 APPENDIX C Original - LTFP Model Consolidated Cash Flow Statement 32 33 APPENDIX D Original - LTFP Model Consolidated Capital Program 34 LTFP Capital Works Program by Project - Base Case Account Description New or Proposed FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY10 Renew 2015/16 PJ 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Original Budget Ledger Community & Cultural Library Braidwood Capital Library Bungendore Capital Fire Control - RFS Capital Captains Flat RFS Building Contstruction Future Yrs Dev Contributions Comm Fac - EB Use only Total Community & Cultural Infrastructure & Transport Bung.Water - Connections & Minor Works Bung.Water - Retic.Mains Upgrade Bungendore water telemetry upgrade Bungendore Water – New Reservoir BWD Water - Connections & Minor Works BWD Water Main Replacement Braidwood water telemetry upgrade Braidwood Water – Shoalhaven Pump Station upgrade CFT Water - Connections & Minor Works New New Renew New $20,270 $20,270 $55,000 $150,000 $21,517 $21,480 $0 $0 $22,197 $22,141 $70,000 $0 $22,384 $22,308 $0 $0 $23,077 $22,981 $0 $0 $23,277 $23,160 $0 $0 $23,985 $23,845 $0 $0 $24,200 $24,037 $0 $0 $24,923 $24,736 $80,000 $0 $25,154 $24,942 $0 $0 $0 $700,000 $0 $0 $650,000 $0 $0 $0 $500,000 $0 $245,540 $742,997 $114,338 $44,692 $696,058 $46,437 $47,830 $48,237 $629,659 $50,096 Renew $9,692 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Renew Renew $300,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $10,000 $0 $0 $250,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 New Renew $0 $3,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,100,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Renew Renew Renew $700,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $10,000 $200,000 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Renew $1,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 New 35 LTFP Capital Works Program by Project - Base Case Account Description Replace membranes _WTP Captains Flat water telemetry upgrade Cap Flat Replace Steel Reservoir BUN Sewer - Connections & Minor Works BUN Sewer - STP Construction Stage 1 BUN Sewer - SPS Upgrading Bungendore sewerage telemetry upgrade Bungendore Sewer – Mains upgrades Solar Installations STP BWD Sewer - Connections & Minor Works Braidwood sewerage telemetry upgrade Braidwood Sewer – Mains upgrades CFT Sewer - Connections & Minor Works Captains Flat STP Construction Captains Flat sewerage telemetry upgrade Construct New Braidwood works Depot New or Proposed FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY10 Renew 2015/16 PJ 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Original Budget Ledger Renew $65,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $60,000 Renew $0 $0 $10,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Renew Renew $500,000 $3,705 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 New $0 $0 $0 $5,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Renew Renew $0 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $10,000 $0 $0 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 Renew $0 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $0 $100,000 New Renew $400,000 $2,623 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Renew $0 $0 $10,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Renew Renew $0 $1,512 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $0 Renew Renew $0 $0 $750,000 $0 $750,000 $10,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 New $0 $0 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 36 LTFP Capital Works Program by Project - Base Case Account Description New or Proposed FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY10 Renew 2015/16 PJ 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Original Budget Ledger New $0 $300,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Drainage - Majara Street (Gibraltar to Malbon) Drainage - Wallace Street (Lascelles Renew to Flood) Bungendore Landfill Reinstatement Renew Macs Reef Landfill Reinstatement Renew Braidwood Landfill Reinstatement Renew Majors Creek Bin Compound New Construction Araluen Bin Compound Construction New Nerriga Landfill Reinstatement Renew Nerriga Transfer Station New Construction Extra Bin Compounds New RR92 Nerriga Road Routine Capital Renew RR270 Captains Flat Road Routine Renew Capital Generic RRRP projects Renew Cooma Rd H/Patch and reseal Renew RR268 Rehabilitation (S94 RA Renew 2015/2000) Cooma Rd rehab - Hawthorn to Renew Jinglemoney Rehabilitation QCC to Stoney Creek Renew Rehabilitation near Carwoola Church Renew Local Roads Routine Capital Renew Generic Road Rehabilitation projects Renew $250,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $50,000 $50,000 $0 $80,000 $0 $0 $700,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $80,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $50,000 $0 $0 $450,000 $0 $400,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $80,000 $57,727 $294,976 $0 $58,236 $211,768 $0 $59,925 $217,907 $0 $61,662 $224,229 $0 $63,451 $230,731 $0 $65,291 $237,423 $0 $67,184 $244,208 $0 $69,133 $251,392 $0 $71,137 $258,683 $0 $73,200 $266,185 $0 $530,000 $530,000 $28,000 $0 $0 $1,500,000 $1,150,000 $1,150,000 $530,000 $0 $0 $530,000 $0 $0 $530,000 $0 $0 $530,000 $0 $0 $530,000 $0 $0 $530,000 $0 $0 $530,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $620,914 $0 $0 $620,914 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $590,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,830,033 $1,127,682 $1,160,384 $1,194,035 $1,228,662 $1,264,294 $1,300,958 $1,338,685 $1,377,508 $1,417,455 $0 $584,250 $598,856 $613,828 $629,173 $644,903 $661,025 $677,551 $694,490 $711,852 37 LTFP Capital Works Program by Project - Base Case Account Description New or Proposed FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY10 Renew 2015/16 PJ 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Original Budget Ledger Generic R2R projects Renew $0 $620,914 $620,914 $620,914 $620,914 $620,914 $620,914 $620,914 $620,914 $620,914 Tudor Valley Rd. Impts. (S94 Funds) Renew $35,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Taylors Creek Road (Windfarm New $57,500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Project) Euradux Rd Resheet Renew $40,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Williamsdale Road – Burra Creek New $100,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Crossing Lascelles St Reconstruction Renew $250,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Future Yrs Dev Contribution Roads - Renew $0 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,500,000 $1,500,000 $1,500,000 EB Use only Total Infrastructure & Transport Council Governance & Finance Desktop/Laptop Upgrades New Server/Network Upgrades New Printers/Plotters/Photocopiers/Scann New ers Lync Capital Project New RFID Library Capital New Waste Transfer Station IT Capital New Intramaps Upgrade Capital New Computer & I.T.Services Capital New Fleet Capital Transactions New Council Offices Bungendore New Generator $8,601,596 $7,282,850 $7,997,986 $11,144,668 $4,752,931 $4,762,825 $6,324,289 $5,387,675 $5,252,732 $5,479,606 Total Council Governance & $2,456,000 $2,832,000 $2,007,500 $2,014,000 $2,825,500 $2,014,000 $2,007,500 $2,032,000 $2,007,500 $2,014,000 $84,000 $156,000 $1,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $7,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $11,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $32,000 $7,500 $14,000 $25,500 $14,000 $7,500 $32,000 $7,500 $14,000 $2,150,000 $2,800,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,800,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $45,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 38 LTFP Capital Works Program by Project - Base Case Account Description New or Proposed FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY10 Renew 2015/16 PJ 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Original Budget Ledger Finance Recreation & Open Space C/Flat Pool Repairs Braidwood Rec Ground Construction Playing fields Bungendore Purchase Land Royalla Common Amenities Building Total Recreation & Open Space Not Applicable Solar Installations - WTP Renew New New New New Total Not Applicable Total Capital Program Capital Funding Sources User Charges & Fees Operating Grants & Contributions Capital Grants & Contributions Loan Funding Asset Sales Transfers from Reserves Total Capital Funding Sources Renew Renew Renew Renew New Renew $20,000 $1,050,000 $500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $202,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,772,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $150,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $150,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $13,225,136 $10,857,847 $10,119,824 $13,203,360 $8,274,489 $6,823,262 $8,379,619 $7,467,912 $7,889,891 $7,543,702 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($21,532) $0 $0 ($1,766,531) ($1,052,918) ($1,060,746) ($1,068,805) ($1,077,096) ($1,085,628) ($1,094,306) ($1,103,439) ($1,112,734) ($1,122,299) ($1,453,000) ($368,000) ($368,000) ($368,000) ($710,000) ($1,050,000) ($1,750,000) ($1,000,000) ($500,000) ($500,000) ($500,000) ($500,000) ($368,000) ($368,000) ($368,000) ($368,000) ($368,000) ($368,000) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($500,000) ($500,000) ($500,000) ($500,000) ($500,000) ($500,000) ($6,974,396) ($6,102,112) ($4,632,249) ($8,402,309) ($4,402,425) ($2,902,632) ($4,402,806) ($3,402,979) ($3,783,166) ($3,303,386) ($11,425,459) ($9,073,030) ($8,310,995) ($11,339,114) ($6,347,521) ($4,856,260) ($6,365,112) ($5,374,418) ($5,763,900) ($5,293,685) 39 LTFP Capital Works Program by Project - Base Case Account Description Rates Funding Required New or Proposed FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY10 Renew 2015/16 PJ 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Original Budget Ledger $1,799,677 $1,784,817 $1,808,829 $1,864,246 $1,926,968 $1,967,002 $2,014,507 $2,093,494 $2,125,991 $2,250,017 40 APPENDIX E Original - LTFP Model Reserve Balances Summary 41 42 APPENDIX F Scenario 1 – Base Case “Deteriorate” - LTFP Income Statement and Funded Result General Fund Only 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 1.8% rate peg 2.5% rate peg each year 43 2.5% Base Case General Fund Only Income Statement Account Description Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 11,045,667 Income Rates & Annual Charges 8,620,502 8,807,257 9,059,975 9,319,992 9,587,519 9,862,774 10,145,982 10,437,373 10,737,187 Rates & Annual Charges (Pensioner) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) Non Rates & Annual Charges 3,649,743 3,917,894 4,177,192 4,422,315 4,647,946 4,885,336 5,135,107 5,317,016 5,505,373 5,700,405 User Charges & Fees 7,204,122 5,418,947 5,642,214 5,798,564 5,960,066 6,126,900 6,299,250 6,477,308 6,661,273 6,851,349 Interest 710,897 848,401 853,512 830,226 831,642 833,093 834,580 836,105 837,668 839,269 Other Revenues 440,738 450,484 460,388 473,796 487,610 501,842 516,505 531,614 547,181 563,222 Operating Grants & Contributions 6,384,062 5,724,197 5,775,111 5,854,898 5,943,609 6,034,641 6,127,953 6,223,908 6,322,271 6,423,209 Capital Grants & Contributions 4,378,796 4,894,794 4,348,931 2,916,160 2,100,748 1,693,553 1,720,064 1,287,407 1,305,790 1,324,548 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 31,344,360 30,017,473 30,272,824 29,571,451 29,514,640 29,893,639 30,734,941 31,066,232 31,872,242 32,703,169 9,560,478 9,792,335 10,035,082 10,425,557 10,779,387 11,087,102 11,429,958 11,762,445 12,125,870 12,489,803 728,062 768,826 747,842 776,561 794,492 762,996 728,202 663,868 627,643 544,586 Depreciation & Amortisation 5,494,682 5,637,716 5,766,107 5,882,143 5,983,224 6,085,947 6,171,287 6,263,717 6,357,389 6,458,979 Other Expenses 2,639,114 2,697,053 2,772,660 2,830,273 2,899,664 2,966,880 3,039,969 3,114,980 3,191,965 3,270,975 Materials & Contracts 8,179,412 6,908,150 7,208,228 7,146,061 7,533,120 7,724,610 7,900,641 7,986,327 8,286,784 8,542,133 26,601,747 25,804,081 26,529,920 27,060,595 27,989,888 28,627,535 29,270,058 29,791,337 30,589,651 31,306,476 4,742,613 4,213,392 3,742,904 2,510,855 1,524,752 1,266,104 1,464,883 1,274,895 1,282,592 1,396,693 Gain or Loss on Disposal Total Income Expenses Employee Costs Borrowing Costs Total Expenses Net Operating Result Capital Expenditure Employee Costs Materials & Contracts Plant Acquisitions 769,068 270,867 274,763 257,626 141,909 146,167 150,552 155,068 159,720 164,512 8,523,681 8,627,938 7,008,172 5,828,841 5,275,954 4,681,013 5,243,814 5,338,712 5,967,461 5,468,211 2,150,000 2,800,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,800,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 11,442,749 11,698,805 9,282,935 8,086,467 8,217,863 6,827,180 7,394,366 7,493,780 8,127,181 7,632,723 Loan Funding (710,000) (300,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Asset Sales (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) Total Capital Expenditure Capital Funding/Movements Loan Repayments Transfers from Reserves Transfers to Reserves 298,363 374,837 400,678 495,008 599,814 639,754 677,070 716,543 757,464 802,902 (6,144,438) (6,437,987) (4,655,591) (3,211,216) (4,144,048) (2,664,134) (3,060,012) (3,058,923) (3,637,822) (3,152,589) 3,555,466 5,793,250 4,973,926 6,005,896 4,674,405 3,776,588 3,438,437 3,629,493 3,340,540 3,424,224 Total Capital Funding/Movements (1,262,824) (1,889,223) 250,984 458,197 (267,646) 914,057 746,551 498,159 43,866 705,779 Less: Non Cash (5,437,312) (5,579,160) (5,707,551) (5,823,587) (5,924,668) (6,027,391) (6,112,731) (6,178,717) (6,272,389) (6,373,979) Budget Result Operating Result Before Capital 0 (17,029) (83,464) (210,222) (500,797) (447,741) (563,302) (538,328) (616,066) (567,830) 363,817 (681,402) (606,027) (405,305) (575,996) (427,449) (255,181) (12,512) (23,198) 72,145 44 APPENDIX G Scenario 1 – Base Case “Deteriorate” - LTFP Financial Position General Fund Only 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 1.8% rate peg 2.5% rate peg each year 45 2.5% Base Case Statement of Financial Position for General Fund Only Account Description Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Current Assets Cash & Cash Equivalents (13,723,776) (13,706,747) (13,623,283) (13,413,062) (12,912,265) (12,464,524) (11,901,222) (11,362,894) (10,746,827) (10,178,997) Investments 33,619,072 32,348,698 33,767,447 35,053,418 33,935,680 34,074,149 33,785,257 33,293,733 32,160,624 31,749,840 Receivables 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 Inventories 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 Other Assets 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 24,361,106 23,107,762 24,609,974 26,106,167 25,489,226 26,075,437 26,349,847 26,396,651 25,879,608 26,036,654 Infrastructure, Property, Plant & Equip 498,568,706 504,214,794 507,316,623 509,105,947 510,925,586 511,251,818 512,059,896 512,874,960 514,229,752 514,988,496 Total Non Current Assets 498,568,706 504,214,794 507,316,623 509,105,947 510,925,586 511,251,818 512,059,896 512,874,960 514,229,752 514,988,496 Total Assets 522,929,812 527,322,556 531,926,597 535,212,114 536,414,812 537,327,255 538,409,743 539,271,611 540,109,360 541,025,150 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 374,837 400,678 495,008 599,814 639,754 677,070 716,543 757,464 802,902 280,595 Current Provisions 2,835,923 3,077,403 3,326,127 3,582,313 3,846,185 4,117,973 4,397,914 4,686,254 4,983,244 5,289,143 Total Current Liabilities 8,962,665 9,229,986 9,573,039 9,934,032 10,237,843 10,546,947 10,866,361 11,195,622 11,538,051 11,321,643 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 10,831,282 10,730,604 11,235,596 11,635,782 10,996,028 10,318,958 9,602,416 8,844,952 8,042,050 7,761,455 5,093,531 5,106,240 5,119,331 5,132,815 5,146,703 5,161,007 5,175,741 5,190,917 5,206,548 5,222,648 Total Non Current Liabilities 15,928,528 15,840,559 16,358,642 16,772,312 16,146,446 15,483,680 14,781,872 14,039,584 13,252,313 12,987,818 Total Liabilities 24,891,193 25,070,545 25,931,682 26,706,344 26,384,289 26,030,628 25,648,233 25,235,206 24,790,363 24,309,461 498,038,619 502,252,011 505,994,915 508,505,770 510,030,523 511,296,627 512,761,510 514,036,405 515,318,996 516,715,689 Retained Earnings 120,339,590 124,552,982 128,295,886 130,806,741 132,331,493 133,597,597 135,062,480 136,337,375 137,619,967 139,016,660 Revaluation Reserves 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 Total Equity 498,038,619 502,252,011 505,994,915 508,505,770 510,030,523 511,296,627 512,761,510 514,036,405 515,318,996 516,715,689 Total Equity 498,038,619 502,252,011 505,994,915 508,505,770 510,030,523 511,296,627 512,761,510 514,036,405 515,318,996 516,715,689 Total Current Assets Non Current Assets Current Liabilities Current Payables Current Borrowings Non Current Liabilities Non Current Payables Non Current Borrowings Non Current Provisions Net Assets Equity 46 APPENDIX H Scenario 1 – Base Case “Deteriorate” - LTFP Statement of Cash Flow General Fund Only 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 1.8% rate peg 2.5% rate peg each year 47 2.5% Base Case Cash Flow Statement for General Fund Only Account Description Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 12,140,745 12,595,650 13,107,667 13,612,807 14,105,965 14,618,610 15,151,589 15,624,890 16,113,060 16,616,573 7,204,122 5,418,947 5,642,214 5,798,564 5,960,066 6,126,900 6,299,250 6,477,308 6,661,273 6,851,349 710,897 848,401 853,512 830,226 831,642 833,093 834,580 836,105 837,668 839,269 Cash Flows from Operating Activities Receipts: Rates & Annual Charges User Charges & Fees Interest Other Revenues 440,738 450,484 460,388 473,796 487,610 501,842 516,505 531,614 547,181 563,222 Operating Grants & Contributions 6,384,062 5,724,197 5,775,111 5,854,898 5,943,609 6,034,641 6,127,953 6,223,908 6,322,271 6,423,209 Capital Grants & Contributions 4,378,796 4,894,794 4,348,931 2,916,160 2,100,748 1,693,553 1,720,064 1,287,407 1,305,790 1,324,548 Payments: Employee Costs (9,560,478) Borrowing Costs (9,792,335) (10,035,082) (10,425,557) (10,779,387) (11,087,102) (11,429,958) (11,762,445) (12,125,870) (12,489,803) (700,432) (742,382) (721,398) (750,117) (768,048) (736,552) (701,758) (663,868) (627,643) (544,586) Other Expenses (2,639,114) (2,697,053) (2,772,660) (2,830,273) (2,899,664) (2,966,880) (3,039,969) (3,114,980) (3,191,965) (3,270,975) Materials & Contracts Net cash provided (or used in) operating activities Cash Flows from Investing Activities (8,179,412) (6,908,150) (7,208,228) (7,146,061) (7,533,120) (7,724,610) (7,900,641) (7,986,327) (8,286,784) (8,542,133) 10,179,925 9,792,553 9,450,455 8,334,443 7,449,420 7,293,496 7,577,614 7,453,611 7,554,981 7,770,672 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 6,144,438 6,437,987 4,655,591 3,211,216 4,144,048 2,664,134 3,060,012 3,058,923 3,637,822 3,152,589 (5,793,250) (4,973,926) (6,005,896) (4,674,405) (3,776,588) (3,438,437) (3,629,493) (3,340,540) (3,424,224) (3,555,466) (11,442,749) (11,698,805) (9,282,935) (8,086,467) (8,217,863) (6,827,180) (7,394,366) (7,493,780) (8,127,181) (7,632,723) (9,734,744) (10,133,240) (9,049,657) (7,350,403) (7,101,483) (7,463,847) (7,275,397) (7,413,583) (7,535,600) Receipts: Sale of infrastructure, property, plant and equipment Sale of Investments Payments: Purchase of Investments Purchase of infrastructure, property, plant and equipment Net cash provided (or used in) investing activities Cash Flows from Financing Activities (10,591,561) Receipts: Proceeds from Borrowings & Advances 710,000 300,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 (298,363) (374,837) (400,678) (495,008) (599,814) (639,754) (677,070) (716,543) (757,464) (802,902) 411,637 (74,837) 599,322 504,992 (599,814) (639,754) (677,070) (716,543) (757,464) (802,902) 0 (17,029) (83,464) (210,222) (500,797) (447,741) (563,302) (538,328) (616,066) (567,830) Payments: Repayment of Borrowings and Advances Net cash provided (or used in) financing activities Net (increase) / decrease in cash 48 APPENDIX I Scenario 2 – “Stabilise” - LTFP Income Statement and Funded Result General Fund Only 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 6.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 5% special rate) 7.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 5% special rate) each year 49 7.5% Special Rate Variation Income Statement General Fund Only Account Description Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 14,028,657 Income Rates & Annual Charges 8,620,502 9,241,142 9,971,257 10,758,908 11,608,618 12,525,265 12,885,548 13,256,017 13,636,956 Rates & Annual Charges (Pensi oner) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) Non Rates & Annual Charges 3,649,743 3,917,894 4,177,192 4,422,315 4,647,946 4,885,336 5,135,107 5,317,016 5,505,373 5,700,405 User Charges & Fees 7,204,122 5,418,947 5,642,214 5,798,564 5,960,066 6,126,900 6,299,250 6,477,308 6,661,273 6,851,349 Interest 710,897 848,401 853,512 830,226 831,642 833,093 834,580 836,105 837,668 839,269 Other Revenues 440,738 450,484 460,388 473,796 487,610 501,842 516,505 531,614 547,181 563,222 Operati ng Grants & Contri buti ons 6,384,062 7,151,778 5,775,111 5,854,898 5,943,609 6,034,641 6,127,953 6,223,908 6,322,271 6,423,209 Capi tal Grants & Contri buti ons 4,378,796 3,467,213 5,048,931 3,316,160 3,700,748 1,813,553 1,720,064 1,287,407 1,305,790 1,324,548 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 31,344,360 30,451,358 31,884,106 31,410,366 33,135,739 32,676,131 33,474,508 33,884,875 34,772,011 35,686,158 9,560,478 10,005,735 10,573,722 10,979,279 11,348,614 11,672,268 12,031,509 12,380,840 12,761,580 13,143,312 728,062 768,826 747,842 834,799 886,715 922,131 920,883 836,768 779,753 674,847 Depreci ati on & Amorti sati on 5,494,682 5,637,716 5,769,484 5,952,458 6,100,399 6,308,872 6,475,562 6,600,126 6,726,736 6,862,088 Other Expenses 2,639,114 2,709,553 2,785,473 2,843,406 2,913,125 2,980,678 3,054,112 3,129,477 3,206,824 3,286,205 Materi al s & Contracts 8,179,412 8,405,731 7,279,978 7,219,605 7,608,503 8,041,878 7,979,841 8,067,507 8,369,994 8,627,423 26,601,747 27,527,562 27,156,501 27,829,546 28,857,357 29,925,827 30,461,908 31,014,718 31,844,887 32,593,876 4,742,613 2,923,797 4,727,605 3,580,820 4,278,383 2,750,304 3,012,600 2,870,158 2,927,124 3,092,283 Gai n or Loss on Di sposal Total Income Expenses Empl oyee Costs Borrowi ng Costs Total Expenses Net Operating Result Capital Expenditure Empl oyee Costs 769,068 270,867 274,763 257,626 141,909 146,167 150,552 155,068 159,720 164,512 Materi al s & Contracts 8,523,681 7,200,357 7,008,172 5,828,841 5,275,954 4,681,013 5,243,814 5,338,712 5,967,461 5,468,211 Pl ant Acqui si ti ons 2,150,000 2,800,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,800,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 0 135,100 2,677,478 1,874,416 4,230,027 3,254,027 1,285,380 1,317,515 1,350,453 1,384,213 11,442,749 10,406,324 11,960,413 9,960,883 12,447,890 10,081,207 8,679,746 8,811,295 9,477,634 9,016,936 Loan Fundi ng (710,000) (300,000) (2,200,000) (1,800,000) (1,550,000) (1,000,000) 0 0 0 0 Asset Sal es (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) SRV Capi tal Total Capital Expenditure Capital Funding/Movements Loan Repayments Transfers from Reserves Transfers to Reserves 298,363 374,837 400,678 589,993 762,962 933,903 1,065,359 1,124,613 1,186,323 1,253,610 (6,144,438) (6,437,987) (5,155,591) (3,261,216) (4,144,048) (3,664,134) (3,060,012) (3,058,923) (3,637,822) (3,152,589) 5,793,250 4,973,926 6,005,896 4,674,405 3,776,588 3,438,437 3,629,493 3,340,540 3,424,224 3,555,466 1,638 4,899 7,065 1,504 115,715 112,530 128,061 143,932 160,150 SRV Reserve Movement Total Capital Funding/Movements (1,262,824) (1,887,586) (1,444,117) (289,752) (1,652,994) (676,080) 1,247,370 1,034,291 616,657 1,316,637 Less: Non Cash (5,437,312) (5,579,160) (5,710,928) (5,893,902) (6,041,843) (6,250,316) (6,417,006) (6,515,126) (6,641,736) (6,777,088) 0 (15,781) (77,762) (196,409) (474,671) (404,507) (497,509) (460,302) (525,431) (464,203) 363,817 (543,416) (321,326) 264,660 577,635 936,751 1,292,536 1,582,751 1,621,334 1,767,735 Budget Result Operati ng Resul t Before Capi tal 50 APPENDIX J Scenario 2 – “Stabilise” - LTFP Statement of Financial Position General Fund Only 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 6.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 5% special rate) 7.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 5% special rate) each year 51 7.5% Special Rate Variation Statement of Financial Position General Fund Only Account Description Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Current Assets Cash & Cash Equivalents (13,723,776) (13,707,995) (13,630,232) (13,433,823) (12,959,152) (12,554,645) (12,057,136) (11,596,833) (11,071,403) (10,607,200) Investments 33,619,072 32,352,831 33,287,882 34,558,544 33,494,561 32,835,213 32,790,437 32,583,026 31,775,119 31,731,740 Receivables 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 Inventories 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 Other Assets 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 24,361,106 23,110,647 24,123,460 25,590,531 25,001,220 24,746,379 25,199,112 25,452,003 25,169,527 25,590,351 Total Current Assets Non Current Assets Infrastructure, Property, Plant & Equip 498,568,706 502,922,313 508,698,242 512,291,668 518,224,159 521,581,494 523,370,677 525,166,846 527,502,744 529,242,592 Total Non Current Assets 498,568,706 502,922,313 508,698,242 512,291,668 518,224,159 521,581,494 523,370,677 525,166,846 527,502,744 529,242,592 Total Assets 522,929,812 526,032,960 532,821,702 537,882,199 543,225,379 546,327,873 548,569,789 550,618,849 552,672,271 554,832,943 Current Liabilities Current Payables 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 374,837 400,678 589,993 762,962 933,903 1,065,359 1,124,613 1,186,323 1,253,610 754,264 Current Provisions 2,835,923 3,077,403 3,326,127 3,582,313 3,846,185 4,117,973 4,397,914 4,686,254 4,983,244 5,289,143 Total Current Liabilities 8,962,665 9,229,986 9,668,025 10,097,180 10,531,992 10,935,236 11,274,432 11,624,482 11,988,759 11,795,313 Current Borrowings 5,751,905 Non Current Liabilities Non Current Payables Non Current Borrowings Non Current Provisions 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 10,831,282 10,730,604 12,340,611 13,377,649 13,993,746 13,928,387 12,803,774 11,617,451 10,363,841 9,609,576 5,093,531 5,106,240 5,119,331 5,132,815 5,146,703 5,161,007 5,175,741 5,190,917 5,206,548 5,222,648 Total Non Current Liabilities 15,928,528 15,840,559 17,463,657 18,514,178 19,144,163 19,093,109 17,983,230 16,812,083 15,574,103 14,835,939 Total Liabilities 24,891,193 25,070,545 27,131,682 28,611,358 29,676,156 30,028,345 29,257,662 28,436,564 27,562,862 26,631,251 Net Assets 498,038,619 500,962,416 505,690,021 509,270,841 513,549,223 516,299,527 519,312,127 522,182,285 525,109,409 528,201,692 Equity Retained Earnings 120,339,590 123,263,386 127,990,991 131,571,811 135,850,194 138,600,498 141,613,098 144,483,255 147,410,379 150,502,662 Revaluation Reserves 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 Total Equity 498,038,619 500,962,416 505,690,021 509,270,841 513,549,223 516,299,527 519,312,127 522,182,285 525,109,409 528,201,692 Total Equity 498,038,619 500,962,416 505,690,021 509,270,841 513,549,223 516,299,527 519,312,127 522,182,285 525,109,409 528,201,692 52 APPENDIX K Scenario 2 –“Stabilise”- LTFP Statement of Cash Flows General Fund Only 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 6.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 5% special rate) 7.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 5% special rate) each year 53 7.5% Special Rate Variation Cashflow Statement General Fund Only Account Description Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 12,140,745 13,029,536 14,018,949 15,051,722 16,127,064 17,281,101 17,891,155 18,443,533 19,012,829 19,599,562 7,204,122 5,418,947 5,642,214 5,798,564 5,960,066 6,126,900 6,299,250 6,477,308 6,661,273 6,851,349 710,897 848,401 853,512 830,226 831,642 833,093 834,580 836,105 837,668 839,269 Cash Flows from Operating Activities Receipts: Rates & Annual Charges User Charges & Fees Interest Other Revenues 440,738 450,484 460,388 473,796 487,610 501,842 516,505 531,614 547,181 563,222 Operating Grants & Contributions 6,384,062 7,151,778 5,775,111 5,854,898 5,943,609 6,034,641 6,127,953 6,223,908 6,322,271 6,423,209 Capital Grants & Contributions 4,378,796 3,467,213 5,048,931 3,316,160 3,700,748 1,813,553 1,720,064 1,287,407 1,305,790 1,324,548 Payments: Employee Costs (9,560,478) (10,005,735) (10,573,722) (10,979,279) (11,348,614) (11,672,268) (12,031,509) (12,380,840) (12,761,580) (13,143,312) Borrowing Costs (700,432) (742,382) (721,398) (808,355) (860,271) (895,687) (894,439) (836,768) (779,753) (674,847) Other Expenses (2,639,114) (2,709,553) (2,785,473) (2,843,406) (2,913,125) (2,980,678) (3,054,112) (3,129,477) (3,206,824) (3,286,205) Materials & Contracts Net cash provided (or used in) operating activities Cash Flows from Investing Activities (8,179,412) (8,405,731) (7,279,978) (7,219,605) (7,608,503) (8,041,878) (7,979,841) (8,067,507) (8,369,994) (8,627,423) 10,179,925 8,502,957 10,438,533 9,474,722 10,320,225 9,000,620 9,429,606 9,385,284 9,568,860 9,869,370 Receipts: Sale of infrastructure, property, plant and equipment Sale of Investments 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 6,144,438 6,437,987 5,155,591 3,261,216 4,144,048 3,664,134 3,060,012 3,058,923 3,637,822 3,152,589 (5,793,250) (4,975,564) (6,010,795) (4,681,470) (3,778,092) (3,554,152) (3,742,023) (3,468,601) (3,568,156) (3,715,616) (9,960,883) (12,447,890) (10,081,207) (8,679,746) (8,811,295) (9,477,634) (9,016,936) (9,471,224) (8,861,757) (8,720,973) (8,907,968) (9,079,963) Payments: Purchase of Investments Purchase of infrastructure, property, plant and equipment Net cash provided (or used in) investing activities Cash Flows from Financing Activities (11,442,749) (10,406,324) (11,960,413) (10,591,561) (8,443,901) (12,315,617) (10,881,138) (11,581,934) Receipts: Proceeds from Borrowings & Advances 710,000 300,000 2,200,000 1,800,000 1,550,000 1,000,000 0 0 0 0 (298,363) (374,837) (400,678) (589,993) (762,962) (933,903) (1,065,359) (1,124,613) (1,186,323) (1,253,610) 411,637 (74,837) 1,799,322 1,210,007 787,038 66,097 (1,065,359) (1,124,613) (1,186,323) (1,253,610) 0 (15,781) (77,762) (196,409) (474,671) (404,507) (497,509) (460,302) (525,431) (464,203) Payments: Repayment of Borrowings and Advances Net cash provided (or used in) financing activities Net (increase) / decrease in cash APPENDIX L 54 Scenario 2 – “Stabilise” - LTFP SRV Program of Works 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 6.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 5% special rate) 7.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 5% special rate) each year 55 SRV Funding Special Rate Variation Works Program Project 1 2 3 4 4 7 12 17 432,638 Funds Available 905,580 1,425,103 1,994,973 2,619,258 2,673,774 2,740,618 2,809,134 2,879,362 2,951,346 Funds Available Funds Available Funds Ins ufficien Funds Available t Funds Available Available Funds Available Funds Available Funds Available Funds Available 1,638 4,899 7,065 1,504 (7,585) 112,530 128,061 143,932 160,150 176,718 Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Program Operational Program Total 7,993,567 FAG Revenue Recovery Community Grants Program Community Facilities Program Parks / Reserves / Streetscapes Parks / Reserves / Streetscapes Governance Compliance ByPass Study Braidwood Depot - Study New 10% Upgrade 20% Renewal 70% 1,292,599 140,045 1,360,363 1,476,650 784,247 1,511,515 240,000 123,300 83,400 12,500 0 130,000 70,000 0 0 0 120,000 12,813 135,000 133,640 71,750 150,000 0 0 123,360 13,133 138,780 137,382 73,544 154,200 0 0 126,814 13,461 142,666 141,229 75,383 158,518 0 0 130,365 13,798 146,661 145,183 77,268 162,957 240,000 123,300 134,015 14,143 150,768 149,248 79,200 167,520 0 0 137,767 14,497 154,990 153,427 81,180 172,211 0 0 141,624 14,859 159,330 157,723 83,210 177,033 0 0 145,589 15,230 163,791 162,139 85,290 181,990 0 0 149,665 15,611 168,377 166,679 87,422 187,086 0 0 315,685 197,974 350,967 200,223 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 58,237 0 0 0 0 53,398 38,825 0 0 0 48,313 35,599 75,223 0 0 42,968 32,209 68,973 48,531 0 37,351 28,645 62,404 44,499 0 31,448 24,901 55,501 40,261 0 25,244 20,965 48,245 35,807 0 18,724 16,829 40,620 31,126 0 Loan Interest Loan_FY1 Loan_FY2 Loan_FY3 Loan_FY4 Loan_FY5 56 Project Program Capital - Renewal Total Over 10yrs 18,927,427 Year1 2016/17 Year2 2017/18 Year3 2018/19 Year4 2019/20 Year5 2020/21 Year6 2021/22 Year7 2022/23 Year8 2023/24 Year9 2024/25 Year10 2025/26 2 Community Grants Program 140,045 12,500 12,813 13,133 13,461 13,798 14,143 14,497 14,859 15,230 15,611 3 Community Facilities Program 589,304 52,600 53,915 55,263 56,645 58,061 59,513 61,001 62,526 64,089 65,691 8 Road Renewal Program 1 - 50% New 50% Renewal 691,841 0 69,500 71,238 73,019 74,844 76,715 78,633 80,599 82,614 84,679 9 Road Renewal Program 2 - 40% Upgrade 60% Renewal 1,485,137 0 0 170,000 174,250 178,606 183,071 187,648 192,339 197,147 202,076 10 Braidwood Recreation Ground - 40% Upgrade 60% Renewal Annual Drainage Construction Program - 90% Upgrade 10% Renewal Parks / Reserves / Streetscapes 540,000 0 0 540,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 150,949 0 0 0 20,000 20,500 21,013 21,538 22,076 22,628 23,194 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Flood Plain Management - New 20% Upgrade 60% Renewal 20% Road Renewal Program 3 - 25% Upgrade 75% Renewal Road Renewal Program 4 - 50% Upgrade 50% Renewal Bungendore Pool 480,000 0 0 0 480,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,267,970 0 0 0 168,000 172,200 176,505 180,918 185,441 190,077 194,829 469,501 0 0 0 0 73,500 75,338 77,221 79,152 81,131 83,159 1,500,000 0 0 0 0 1,500,000 0 0 0 0 0 13 14 15 18 19 20 57 Project Program Year1 2016/17 Total Over 10yrs Year2 2017/18 Year3 2018/19 Year4 2019/20 Year5 2020/21 Year6 2021/22 Year7 2022/23 Year8 2023/24 Year9 2024/25 Year10 2025/26 Capital - New 5 New Footpath Program 784,247 70,000 71,750 73,544 75,383 77,268 79,200 81,180 83,210 85,290 87,422 6 New Bungendore Recreation Grounds Development Road Renewal Program 1 - 50% New 50% Renewal 2,400,000 0 2,400,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 691,841 0 69,500 71,238 73,019 74,844 76,715 78,633 80,599 82,614 84,679 9 Road Renewal Program 2 - 40% Upgrade 60% Renewal 1,485,137 0 0 170,000 174,250 178,606 183,071 187,648 192,339 197,147 202,076 10 Braidwood Recreation Ground - 40% Upgrade 60% Renewal Royalla Reserve 360,000 0 0 360,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 350,000 0 0 350,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Annual Drainage Construction Program - 90% Upgrade 10% Renewal 1,358,540 0 0 0 180,000 184,500 189,113 193,841 198,687 203,654 208,745 14 Parks / Reserves / Streetscapes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 Flood Plain Management - New 20% Upgrade 60% Renewal 20% 1,920,000 0 0 0 1,920,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 Land Purchase 750,000 0 0 0 750,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Braidwood Depot - New 10% Upgrade 20% Renewal 70% Road Renewal Program 3 - 25% Upgrade 75% Renewal Road Renewal Program 4 - 50% Upgrade 50% Renewal Bungendore Pool 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 543,414 0 0 0 72,000 73,800 75,645 77,536 79,474 81,461 83,498 469,501 0 0 0 0 73,500 75,338 77,221 79,152 81,131 83,159 500,000 0 0 0 0 500,000 0 0 0 0 0 8 11 18 19 20 58 Project Program Total Over 10yrs Year1 2016/17 Year2 2017/18 Year3 2018/19 Year4 2019/20 Year5 2020/21 Year6 2021/22 Year7 2022/23 Year8 2023/24 Year9 2024/25 Year10 2025/26 Loan Principal Repayments Loan_FY1 910,098 0 0 94,985 99,824 104,910 110,255 115,872 121,775 127,979 Loan_FY2 517,066 0 0 0 63,324 66,550 69,940 73,503 77,248 81,183 85,319 Loan_FY3 836,510 0 0 0 0 122,689 128,940 135,509 142,412 149,667 157,292 438,205 0 0 0 0 0 79,154 83,187 87,425 91,879 96,560 (800,000) (1,550,000) (1,000,000) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Loan_FY4 Loan Funding Section 94 Contributions Reserve Grants/Contribution (4,550,000) - (1,200,000) (1,550,000) - (500,000) (2,820,000) - (700,000) (50,000) - (1,000,000) (400,000) (1,600,000) (120,000) 134,498 59 APPENDIX M Scenario 2 – “Stabilise” – Fit for the Future Ratios 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 6.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 5% special rate) 7.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 5% special rate) each year 60 FFTF Ratios - Base Case (3 year averages) 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Operating Performance Ratio Own Source Revenue Ratio Building and Infrastrtucture Asset Renewal Ratio Infrastructure Backlog Ratio Asset Maintenance Ratio Debt Service Ratio Real Operating Expenditure per Capita FFTF Ratios - SV (3 yr averages) Operating Performance Ratio Own Source Revenue Ratio Building and Infrastrtucture Asset Renewal Ratio Infrastructure Backlog Ratio Asset Maintenance Ratio Debt Service Ratio Real Operating Expenditure per Capita Must meet within 5 years Meet or improve within 5 years Meet within 5 years Improvement within 5 years net of IPR supported service improvements 61 APPENDIX N Scenario 3 – “Improve” – LTFP Income Statement and Funded Result General Fund Only 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 8.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 7% special rate) 9.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 7% special rate) each year 62 9.5% Special Rate Variation General Fund Only Income Statement Account Description Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 15,384,959 Income Rates & Annual Charges 8,620,502 9,414,197 10,346,970 11,372,007 12,498,420 13,736,219 14,131,334 14,537,620 14,955,389 Rates & Annual Charges (Pensi oner) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) (129,500) Non Rates & Annual Charges 3,649,743 3,917,894 4,177,192 4,422,315 4,647,946 4,885,336 5,135,107 5,317,016 5,505,373 5,700,405 User Charges & Fees 7,204,122 5,418,947 5,642,214 5,798,564 5,960,066 6,126,900 6,299,250 6,477,308 6,661,273 6,851,349 Interest 710,897 848,401 853,512 830,226 831,642 833,093 834,580 836,105 837,668 839,269 Other Revenues 440,738 450,484 460,388 473,796 487,610 501,842 516,505 531,614 547,181 563,222 Operati ng Grants & Contri buti ons 6,384,062 5,724,197 5,775,111 5,854,898 5,943,609 6,034,641 6,127,953 6,223,908 6,322,271 6,423,209 Capi tal Grants & Contri buti ons 4,378,796 4,894,794 5,048,931 3,316,160 3,700,748 2,693,553 1,720,064 1,287,407 1,305,790 1,324,548 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 85,000 31,344,360 30,624,413 32,259,819 32,023,466 34,025,541 34,767,084 34,720,294 35,166,478 36,090,444 37,042,461 9,560,478 10,135,735 10,572,362 10,977,881 11,347,177 11,670,790 12,029,989 12,379,277 12,759,973 13,141,660 728,062 768,826 747,842 834,799 886,715 1,167,213 1,242,664 1,129,082 1,041,098 903,647 Depreci ati on & Amorti sati on 5,494,682 5,637,716 5,770,232 5,959,179 6,115,994 6,456,863 6,715,154 6,856,734 7,000,786 7,154,014 Other Expenses 2,639,114 2,722,053 2,798,285 2,856,539 2,926,587 2,994,476 3,068,255 3,143,973 3,221,683 3,301,436 Materi al s & Contracts 8,179,412 6,978,150 7,279,978 7,439,705 7,608,503 7,801,878 7,979,841 8,067,507 8,369,994 8,627,423 26,601,747 26,242,481 27,168,701 28,068,103 28,884,977 30,091,220 31,035,904 31,576,572 32,393,534 33,128,181 4,742,613 4,381,933 5,091,119 3,955,364 5,140,565 4,675,864 3,684,390 3,589,906 3,696,909 3,914,280 Gai n or Loss on Di sposal Total Income Expenses Empl oyee Costs Borrowi ng Costs Total Expenses Net Operating Result Capital Expenditure Empl oyee Costs 769,068 270,867 274,763 257,626 141,909 146,167 150,552 155,068 159,720 164,512 Materi al s & Contracts 8,523,681 8,627,938 7,008,172 5,828,841 5,275,954 4,681,013 5,243,814 5,338,712 5,967,461 5,468,211 Pl ant Acqui si ti ons 2,150,000 2,800,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,800,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 0 165,000 2,916,425 2,229,336 9,525,821 6,918,069 1,966,022 2,015,171 2,065,553 2,117,192 11,442,749 11,863,805 12,199,360 10,315,803 17,743,684 13,745,249 9,360,388 9,508,951 10,192,734 9,749,915 Loan Fundi ng (710,000) (300,000) (2,200,000) (1,800,000) (6,600,000) (3,000,000) 0 0 0 0 Asset Sal es (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) (500,000) SRV Capi tal Total Capital Expenditure Capital Funding/Movements Loan Repayments Transfers from Reserves Transfers to Reserves 298,363 374,837 400,678 589,993 762,962 1,333,633 1,643,762 1,732,483 1,825,161 1,924,994 (6,144,438) (6,437,987) (5,155,591) (3,261,216) (4,144,048) (3,664,134) (3,060,012) (3,058,923) (3,637,822) (3,152,589) 5,793,250 4,973,926 6,005,896 4,674,405 3,776,588 3,438,437 3,629,493 3,340,540 3,424,224 3,555,466 2,293 128,891 29,120 624,187 108,683 (262,485) (233,817) (204,487) (174,472) SRV Reserve Movement Total Capital Funding/Movements (1,262,824) (1,886,931) (1,320,125) (267,698) (6,080,311) (2,283,381) 1,450,758 1,280,283 907,077 1,653,399 Less: Non Cash (5,437,312) (5,579,160) (5,711,676) (5,900,623) (6,057,438) (6,398,307) (6,656,598) (6,771,734) (6,915,786) (7,069,014) 0 (15,781) (76,440) (192,119) (465,371) (387,697) (470,157) (427,594) (487,116) (420,020) 363,817 (512,861) 42,188 639,204 1,439,817 1,982,311 1,964,326 2,302,499 2,391,119 2,589,732 Budget Result Operati ng Resul t Before Capi tal 63 APPENDIX O Scenario 3 – “Improve” – LTFP Statement of Financial Position General Fund Only 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 8.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 7% special rate) 9.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 7% special rate) each year 64 9.5% Special Rate Variation Statement of Financial Position General Fund Only Account Description Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Current Assets Cash & Cash Equivalents (13,723,776) (13,707,995) (13,631,555) (13,439,436) (12,974,065) (12,586,368) (12,116,211) (11,688,617) (11,201,501) (10,781,481) Investments 33,619,072 32,353,486 33,415,174 34,716,471 34,293,772 33,661,013 33,295,925 32,792,052 31,712,357 31,422,722 Receivables 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 4,458,503 Inventories 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 2,508 Other Assets 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 24,361,106 23,111,302 24,249,430 25,742,846 25,785,518 25,540,455 25,645,525 25,569,247 24,976,667 25,107,052 Total Current Assets Non Current Assets Infrastructure, Property, Plant & Equip 498,568,706 504,379,794 510,393,922 514,335,546 525,548,237 532,421,623 534,651,856 536,889,073 539,666,021 541,846,922 Total Non Current Assets 498,568,706 504,379,794 510,393,922 514,335,546 525,548,237 532,421,623 534,651,856 536,889,073 539,666,021 541,846,922 Total Assets 522,929,812 527,491,097 534,643,352 540,078,392 551,333,754 557,962,078 560,297,381 562,458,320 564,642,689 566,953,974 Current Liabilities Current Payables 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 5,751,905 374,837 400,678 589,993 762,962 1,333,633 1,643,762 1,732,483 1,825,161 1,924,994 1,459,852 Current Provisions 2,835,923 3,077,403 3,326,127 3,582,313 3,846,185 4,117,973 4,397,914 4,686,254 4,983,244 5,289,143 Total Current Liabilities 8,962,665 9,229,986 9,668,025 10,097,180 10,931,722 11,513,639 11,882,302 12,263,320 12,660,143 12,500,900 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 3,715 10,831,282 10,730,604 12,340,611 13,377,649 18,644,016 20,000,254 18,267,771 16,442,610 14,517,615 13,057,763 5,093,531 5,106,240 5,119,331 5,132,815 5,146,703 5,161,007 5,175,741 5,190,917 5,206,548 5,222,648 Total Non Current Liabilities 15,928,528 15,840,559 17,463,657 18,514,178 23,794,434 25,164,976 23,447,227 21,637,241 19,727,878 18,284,125 Total Liabilities 24,891,193 25,070,545 27,131,682 28,611,358 34,726,156 36,678,616 35,329,529 33,900,561 32,388,021 30,785,026 Current Borrowings Non Current Liabilities Non Current Payables Non Current Borrowings Non Current Provisions Net Assets 498,038,619 502,420,552 507,511,670 511,467,034 516,607,599 521,283,463 524,967,853 528,557,758 532,254,668 536,168,948 Equity Retained Earnings 120,339,590 124,721,522 129,812,641 133,768,004 138,908,569 143,584,433 147,268,823 150,858,729 154,555,638 158,469,918 Revaluation Reserves 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 377,699,030 Total Equity 498,038,619 502,420,552 507,511,670 511,467,034 516,607,599 521,283,463 524,967,853 528,557,758 532,254,668 536,168,948 Total Equity 498,038,619 502,420,552 507,511,670 511,467,034 516,607,599 521,283,463 524,967,853 528,557,758 532,254,668 536,168,948 65 APPENDIX P Scenario 3 – “Improve” – LTFP Statement of Cash Flows General Fund Only 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 8.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 7% special rate) 9.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 7% special rate) each year 66 9.5% Special Rate Variation Cashflow Statement General Fund Only Account Description Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 12,140,745 13,202,591 14,394,663 15,664,822 17,016,866 18,492,055 19,136,941 19,725,136 20,331,261 20,955,865 7,204,122 5,418,947 5,642,214 5,798,564 5,960,066 6,126,900 6,299,250 6,477,308 6,661,273 6,851,349 Interest 710,897 848,401 853,512 830,226 831,642 833,093 834,580 836,105 837,668 839,269 Other Revenues 440,738 450,484 460,388 473,796 487,610 501,842 516,505 531,614 547,181 563,222 Operating Grants & Contributions 6,384,062 5,724,197 5,775,111 5,854,898 5,943,609 6,034,641 6,127,953 6,223,908 6,322,271 6,423,209 Capital Grants & Contributions 4,378,796 4,894,794 5,048,931 3,316,160 3,700,748 2,693,553 1,720,064 1,287,407 1,305,790 1,324,548 Cash Flows from Operating Activities Receipts: Rates & Annual Charges User Charges & Fees Payments: Employee Costs Borrowing Costs (9,560,478) (10,135,735) (10,572,362) (10,977,881) (11,347,177) (11,670,790) (12,029,989) (12,379,277) (12,759,973) (13,141,660) (700,432) (742,382) (721,398) (808,355) (860,271) (1,140,769) (1,216,220) (1,129,082) (1,041,098) (903,647) Other Expenses (2,639,114) (2,722,053) (2,798,285) (2,856,539) (2,926,587) (2,994,476) (3,068,255) (3,143,973) (3,221,683) (3,301,436) Materials & Contracts Net cash provided (or used in) operating activities Cash Flows from Investing Activities (8,179,412) (6,978,150) (7,279,978) (7,439,705) (7,608,503) (7,801,878) (7,979,841) (8,067,507) (8,369,994) (8,627,423) 10,179,925 9,961,093 10,802,795 9,855,987 11,198,002 11,074,171 10,340,988 10,361,640 10,612,695 10,983,294 Receipts: Sale of infrastructure, property, plant and equipment Sale of Investments 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 6,144,438 6,437,987 5,155,591 3,261,216 4,144,048 3,664,134 3,060,012 3,058,923 3,637,822 3,152,589 Purchase of Investments (5,793,250) (4,976,219) (6,134,787) (4,703,525) (4,400,775) (3,547,120) Purchase of infrastructure, property, (11,442,749) (11,863,805) (12,199,360) (10,315,803) (17,743,684) (13,745,249) plant and equipment Net cash provided (or used in) (10,591,561) (9,902,037) (12,678,556) (11,258,112) (17,500,411) (13,128,235) investing activities Cash Flows from Financing Activities (3,367,008) (3,106,723) (3,219,737) (3,380,994) (9,360,388) (9,508,951) (10,192,734) (9,749,915) (9,167,384) (9,056,751) (9,274,649) (9,478,320) Payments: Receipts: Proceeds from Borrowings & Advances 710,000 300,000 2,200,000 1,800,000 6,600,000 3,000,000 0 0 0 0 Repayment of Borrowings and Advances (298,363) Net cash provided (or used in) 411,637 financing activities Net (increase) / decrease in cash 0 (374,837) (400,678) (589,993) (762,962) (1,333,633) (1,643,762) (1,732,483) (1,825,161) (1,924,994) (74,837) 1,799,322 1,210,007 5,837,038 1,666,367 (1,643,762) (1,732,483) (1,825,161) (1,924,994) (15,781) (76,440) (192,119) (465,371) (387,697) (470,157) (427,594) (487,116) (420,020) Payments: 67 APPENDIX Q Scenario 3 – “Improve” - LTFP SRV Program of Works 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 8.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 7% special rate) 9.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 7% special rate) each year 68 SRV Funding Funds Funds Funds Funds Funds Insufficient Insufficient Insufficient Insufficient Insufficient Available Available Available Available Available Funds Funds Funds Funds Funds Available Available Available Available Available Special Rate Variation Works Program Project 1 2 3 4 4 7 12 Program 605,693 1,279,971 2,033,913 2,875,475 3,813,401 3,892,208 3,989,513 4,089,251 4,191,482 4,296,269 Total Over 10yrs 2,293 128,891 29,120 624,187 108,683 (262,485) (233,817) (204,487) (174,472) (143,760) Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Operational Program 9,650,618 FAG Revenue Recovery Community Grants Program Community Facilities Program Parks / Reserves / Streetscapes Parks / Reserves / Streetscapes Governance Compliance ByPass Study 1,292,599 280,091 1,476,650 1,476,650 784,247 1,511,515 220,100 83,400 25,000 130,000 130,000 70,000 0 0 120,000 25,625 133,640 133,640 71,750 150,000 0 123,360 26,266 137,382 137,382 73,544 154,200 220,100 126,814 26,923 141,229 141,229 75,383 158,518 0 130,365 27,596 145,183 145,183 77,268 162,957 0 134,015 28,286 149,248 149,248 79,200 167,520 0 137,767 28,993 153,427 153,427 81,180 172,211 0 141,624 29,718 157,723 157,723 83,210 177,033 0 145,589 30,461 162,139 162,139 85,290 181,990 0 149,665 31,223 166,679 166,679 87,422 187,086 0 Loan Interest Loan_FY1 Loan_FY2 Loan_FY3 Loan_FY4 Loan_FY5 315,685 197,974 1,494,438 600,670 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 58,237 0 0 0 0 53,398 38,825 0 0 0 48,313 35,599 320,306 0 0 42,968 32,209 293,691 145,594 0 37,351 28,645 265,720 133,496 0 31,448 24,901 236,325 120,782 0 25,244 20,965 205,431 107,420 0 18,724 16,829 172,964 93,378 0 69 Project Program Capital - Renewal Total Over 10yrs 32,088,711 Year1 2016/17 Year2 2017/18 Year3 2018/19 Year4 2019/20 Year5 2020/21 Year6 2021/22 Year7 2022/23 Year8 2023/24 Year9 2024/25 Year10 2025/26 2 Community Grants Program 280,091 25,000 25,625 26,266 26,923 27,596 28,286 28,993 29,718 30,461 31,223 3 Community Facilities Program 784,247 70,000 71,750 73,544 75,383 77,268 79,200 81,180 83,210 85,290 87,422 8 Road Renewal Program 1 - 50% New 50% Renewal 1,728,603 0 173,650 177,991 182,441 187,002 191,677 196,469 201,381 206,416 211,576 9 Road Renewal Program 2 - 40% Upgrade 60% Renewal 2,358,755 0 0 270,000 276,750 283,669 290,761 298,030 305,481 313,118 320,946 10 Braidwood Recreation Ground - 40% Upgrade 60% Renewal Annual Drainage Construction Program - 90% Upgrade 10% Renewal Parks / Reserves / Streetscapes 540,000 0 0 540,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 181,136 0 0 0 24,000 24,600 25,215 25,845 26,491 27,153 27,832 402,283 0 0 0 53,300 54,633 55,999 57,399 58,834 60,305 61,813 Flood Plain Management - New 20% Upgrade 60% Renewal 20% Braidwood Depot - New 10% Upgrade 20% Renewal 70% Road Renewal Program 3 - 25% Upgrade 75% Renewal Road Renewal Program 4 - 50% Upgrade 50% Renewal Bungendore Pool 480,000 0 0 0 480,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,100,000 0 0 0 2,100,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,537,500 0 0 0 1,537,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,785,692 0 0 0 0 279,550 286,539 293,702 301,045 308,571 316,285 2,500,000 0 0 0 0 2,500,000 0 0 0 0 0 13 14 15 17 18 19 20 70 Project Program Total Over 10yrs Year1 2016/17 Year2 2017/18 Year3 2018/19 Year4 2019/20 Year5 2020/21 Year6 2021/22 Year7 2022/23 Year8 2023/24 Year9 2024/25 Year10 2025/26 Capital - New 5 New Footpath Program 6 784,247 70,000 71,750 73,544 75,383 77,268 79,200 81,180 83,210 85,290 87,422 New Bungendore Recreation Grounds Development Road Renewal Program 1 - 50% New 50% Renewal 2,400,000 0 2,400,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,728,603 0 173,650 177,991 182,441 187,002 191,677 196,469 201,381 206,416 211,576 9 Road Renewal Program 2 - 40% Upgrade 60% Renewal 1,572,504 0 0 180,000 184,500 189,113 193,841 198,687 203,654 208,745 213,964 10 Braidwood Recreation Ground - 40% Upgrade 60% Renewal Royalla Reserve 360,000 0 0 360,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 350,000 0 0 350,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Annual Drainage Construction Program - 90% Upgrade 10% Renewal 1,630,244 0 0 0 216,000 221,400 226,935 232,608 238,423 244,384 250,494 14 Parks / Reserves / Streetscapes 216,614 0 0 0 28,700 29,418 30,153 30,907 31,680 32,472 33,284 15 Flood Plain Management - New 20% Upgrade 60% Renewal 20% 1,920,000 0 0 0 1,920,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 Land Purchase 750,000 0 0 0 750,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Braidwood Depot - New 10% Upgrade 20% Renewal 70% Road Renewal Program 3 - 25% Upgrade 75% Renewal Road Renewal Program 4 - 50% Upgrade 50% Renewal Bungendore Pool 900,000 0 0 0 900,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 512,500 0 0 0 512,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,785,692 0 0 0 0 279,550 286,539 293,702 301,045 308,571 316,285 2,500,000 0 0 0 0 2,500,000 0 0 0 0 0 8 11 18 19 20 71 Project Program Total Over 10yrs Year1 2016/17 Year2 2017/18 Year3 2018/19 Year4 2019/20 Year5 2020/21 Year6 2021/22 Year7 2022/23 Year8 2023/24 Year9 2024/25 Year10 2025/26 Loan Principal Repayments Loan_FY1 910,098 0 0 94,985 99,824 104,910 110,255 115,872 121,775 127,979 Loan_FY2 517,066 0 0 0 63,324 66,550 69,940 73,503 77,248 81,183 85,319 Loan_FY3 3,561,914 0 0 0 0 522,419 549,034 577,005 606,401 637,294 669,761 1,314,615 0 0 0 0 0 237,463 249,561 262,275 275,637 289,679 (800,000) (6,600,000) (3,000,000) - - - - - - (1,000,000) - - - - - (400,000) (1,600,000) (1,000,000) - - - - - Loan_FY4 Loan Funding Section 94 Contributions Reserve Grants/Contribution (11,600,000) - (1,200,000) (1,550,000) - (500,000) (3,700,000) - (700,000) (50,000) 134,498 72 APPENDIX R Scenario 3 – “Improve” - Fit for the Future Ratios 2016/17: 2017/18 – 2020/21: 8.8% Special Rate Variation (comprising 1.8% rate peg plus 7% special rate) 9.5% Special Rate Variation (comprising the estimated 2.5% rate peg plus 7% special rate) each year 73 FFTF Ratios - Base Case (3 year averages) 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Operating Performance Ratio Own Source Revenue Ratio Building and Infrastrtucture Asset Renewal Ratio Infrastructure Backlog Ratio Asset Maintenance Ratio Debt Service Ratio Real Operating Expenditure per Capita FFTF Ratios - SV (3 yr averages) Operating Performance Ratio Own Source Revenue Ratio Building and Infrastrtucture Asset Renewal Ratio Infrastructure Backlog Ratio Asset Maintenance Ratio Debt Service Ratio Real Operating Expenditure per Capita Must meet within 5 years Meet or improve within 5 years Meet within 5 years Improvement within 5 years net of IPR supported service improvements 74