Causal Reasoning & Reasoning Through Analogy Causal Reasoning • • • Expressing or indicating cause Establishing a cause and effect relationship between two different things “…you must show that one actually causes the other.” Cause and Effect? • The facts: • • • • More than 98 percent of convicted felons are bread users More than 90 percent of violent crimes are committed within 24 hours of eating bread Bread has been proven to be addictive. Subjects deprived of bread and given only water begged for bread after as little as two days The conclusion: • Abuse of bread is the cause of most crimes Good Use of Causal Reasoning? NO!!! Correct Use Causal Reasoning • • Distinguish between cause-and-effect and correlations • Bread abuse correlates to crime • Break abuse does not cause crime Text Examples • • Arguing for increased equipment and maintenance of regulations for commercial airlines in order to reduce airline accidents • Must prove that faulty equipment and maintenance causes airline accidents • New equipment and regulations must cause a decrease in airline accidents Social IQ is important to business success • “Look at those who’ve made it in business: Jack Welch, Bob Lutz, Geoff Bible, and Oprah Winfrey. They all are outstanding communicators.” • “Now, how about those who never really reached their potential in business: John Akers, Chris Steffen, Bill Agee and Jim Robinson? All good people but they all have communication deficits.” Tests for Causal Reasoning • • “You must show that the cause is sufficient to produce the effect.” Text Example • Crime rate went down in your city six months after hiring a new police chief • Are there specific policies the chief implements that can be shown to directly affect the rate? • Were there programs in place before the chief was hired that also had an effect? • Did the particular changes the new chief implements affect the types of crimes that declined? Alternative Causes • • “…other causes might also produce the same effect…you must rule out all other causes.” Text Example • • • Improved Grades in School • Better study habits • Better teachers • Better books • Better learning resources Must be able to identify the controlled aspects of a scenario Bread Example • Endless alternative causes Superstitions • • • Correlations can often create superstitions Example • Black cat crosses your path • Your boss calls you to inform you that you have been fired • Correlation or Cause? • Alternative Causes? Example • You lost your lucky pencil • You fail your math test the next day • Correlation or Cause? • Alternative Causes? Analogy • • • • inference that if two or more things agree with one another in some respect they will probably agree in others “…an extended comparison.” an extended metaphor “It’s a way to explain something the members of an audience don’t understand in terms of something they do understand.” The 25 Funnies Analogies (Collected by High School English Teachers) • • • • • • • He spoke with the wisdom that can only come from experience, like a guy who went blind because he looked at a solar eclipse without one of those boxes with a pinhole in it and now goes around the country speaking at high schools about the dangers of looking at a solar eclipse without one of those boxes with a pinhole in it. He was as tall as a six-foot, three-inch tree. The revelation that his marriage of 30 years had disintegrated because of his wife’s infidelity came as a rude shock, like a surcharge at a formerly surcharge-free ATM machine. McBride fell 12 stories, hitting the pavement like a Hefty bag filled with vegetable soup. Her hair glistened in the rain like a nose hair after a sneeze. Even in his last years, Granddad had a mind like a steel trap, only one that had been left out so long it had rusted shut. The young fighter had a hungry look, the kind you get from not eating for a while. Let’s Utilize Reasoning by Analogy! • • He was as tall as a six-foot, three-inch tree. • He was as tall as a tree, therefore he must be as strong as a tree McBride fell 12 stories, hitting the pavement like a Hefty bag filled with vegetable soup. • McBride hit “like” a Hefty bag, therefore he/she must weigh as much as a Hefty bag Good Reasoning by Analogy? NO!!! Correct Use of Analogies • • • Can be either figurative or literal • abstract or concrete Main Rule • both scenarios or examples must correlate in all aspects Text Examples • arguing for a change in a school lunch-hour policy based on a successful open lunch-hour policy at another school • Same size? • Same access to restaurants? • Both rural/urban? • successful football coach uses same techniques with a new football team • Size • Talent • Basic Skills Try This Analogy! • • • Scenario • no drinking age in Europe • lower alcohol-related fatalities in Europe than America • American drinking age should be eliminated!!! Test for Reasoning by Analogy • Similar in all major respects • All aspects that influence conclusion must be similar Problems with Analogy • difference in attitudes towards alcohol assumption • different history with alcohol • maturity level of teenagers • more American teenagers driving Let’s Review! • • • What is the difference between a cause and a correlation? • A cause directly results in the effect. A correlation occurs at the same time as the effect but does not directly influence it. What are the two types of analogies? • Figurative and Literal What are multiple causes that could all result in the same effect? • Alternative Causes Congratulations! • You have mastered causal reasoning because Kasey taught it to you!* • You have mastered reasoning by analogy like Roger Federer has mastered tennis!* * Incorrect usage of causal reasoning and reasoning by analogy.