Terrestrial Observation Panel on Climate (GCOS-GTOS) GCOS SC XVIII, 2010 Han Dolman Chair of TOPC VU University Amsterdam • • • • • • TOPC activities Contributing to GCOS-IP GCOS-GTOS secretariat input GEO carbon tasks Developing standards and guidelines Members involved with specific GTN’s The Chairman liaised with WOAP on FLUXNET and water and energy global datasets Terrestrial progress • There has been significant progress in defining internationally accepted standards for the terrestrial ECVs (move to wards ISO standardization). • Progress in establishing institutional support for in situ networks has been slow, • The objective of creating a comprehensive and well coordinated reference network for in situ observations of the fullest possible range of terrestrial ECVs is a continuing, yet still a largely unmet challenge • The establishment of several Global Terrestrial Networks (GTNs) in a number of areas (e.g. Hydrology, Glaciers, Permafrost), where data collection takes place largely through in situ measurements has significantly improved the coordination and global coverage of these observations Terrestrial progress Observations taken for purposes other than climate, but with climate relevance, are often not made available,. • Good progress has been made in guaranteeing short-term continuity in the availability of high-resolution optical observations from satellites,. • The increasing commitment of space agencies to produce fundamental climate data records from existing systems has led to improved availability of global datasets, such as burned area and land cover (now also glaciers with ESA CCI). • The analysis of historical records, both in situ and satellite based, has been progressing slowly and needs the urgent consideration of space agencies together with the potential users. Action T12 • Action: Develop Global Terrestrial Network on Soil Moisture • Who: Parties’ national services and research programmes, through IGWCO, GEWEX and TOPC in collaboration with space agencies. • Time frame: 2012 • Performance indicator: Fully functional GTN-SM with a set of in situ observations (possibly co-located with reference network, cf. T3), with standard measurement protocol and data quality and archiving procedures. • Annual Cost Implications: 1-10M USD (40% in non-Annex-I Parties). Action T11 • Action: Develop a record of validated globally gridded near surface soil moisture from satellites • Who: Parties’ national services and research programmes, through GEWEX and TOPC in collaboration with space agencies. • Time frame: 2014 • Performance indicator Availability of globally validated soil moisture products from the early satellites until now. • Annual Cost Implications: 1-10M USD (10% in non-Annex-I Parties). Decline in global ET Jung et al., Nature in press In Southern Hemisphere decline in soil moisture and evaporation Jung et al., Nature in press Issues • Satellite soil moisture is top few cm only • In situ networks – Rutgers University (Chinese, Russian data) – Univ. Vienna (ESA) just set up • There is no ECV documentation on standards and guidelines • Progress in GEWEX land flux evaporation estimates • Organize small workshop with modelers, assimilators (GEWEX) with ESA? • While we have a number of satellite ECV products, like albedo, Fapar etc., their validation is generally poor • We need to find a mechanism to get our set of 35 global reference sites (linked with Fluxnet) and CEOS Cal-Val, similar to GRUAN, • Limited progress Action T3 [IP-04 T3, T29] • Action: Development of a subset of current LTER and FLUXNET sites into a global reference network for ecological monitoring sites with sustained funding perspective. • Who: Parties’ national services and research agencies, FLUXNET organizations, NEON, ICOS, in association with CEOS WGCV, CGMSGSICS, GTOS (TCO and TOPC) • Time-frame: Implementation by 2010 • Performance Indicator: Plan for the development and application of standardized protocols for the measurements of fluxes and state variables • Annual Cost Implications: 30-100M USD (40% in non-Annex-I Parties). • See also Actions A15, A27, A30. • Reference is made to corresponding (not necessarily identical, often follow-on) Actions in the IP-04, so they exist. Geo Carbon Strategy • New version IGCO report • Coordinated by Carbon Community of Practice • Recommendations for short en long term developments • GCOS-GTOS, IOCP members involved, cpmatability check with GCOS-I_2010 • Now in its “final” form… Delivering useful information for management strategies • Country-level constraints on net emissions & ecosystem carbon stocks • Assessments of the effectiveness of greenhouse gas management strategies • Evaluation of changes in biosphere or ocean feedbacks • Early warning of rapid greenhouse gas release events The System A seamless deployment an operational monitoring system Ecosystem & Atmospheric models are the “Software Engines” of the system operation Deployment cost of terrestrial & space components will depend on the “Engine performances & scalability 0.1 Time (day) 2025 1 Phase 3 10 Phase 2 2015 Phase 1 30 100- 500 10 5 28/09/2009 2020 10-50 1 to 10 Resolution (Km) Precision (g C m-2 y-1) Geo carbon strategy (i) • increase the density of in situ networks, in particular for stations and aircraft atmospheric observations, ocean pCO2 observing systems using Voluntary Observing Ships, and eddy covariance terrestrial ecosystem flux measurement networks. • develop space measurements of global CO₂ and CH₄ distributions, to fill the gap after GOSAT and SCIAMACHY; • develop spatial scaling techniques for pCO₂ and land flux observations for application to wider regions, using satellite information; • undertake a decadal full basin survey of ocean carbon state, together with regular inventories of forest biomass and soil carbon pools; Satellite GHG mission with PBL sensitivity 2002 CO2 CH4 CH4 CO2 CH4 CO TBD 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 SCIAMACHY 2016 2018 2020 2022 CARBONSAT GOSAT-2** GOSAT G/Fr Climate Mission OCO-2 SENTINEL 5 MicroCarb OCO-3* JEM-DIAL*** SENTINEL 5 P ASCENDS *OCO-3 instrument will be assembled and ready for integration on to a flight of opportunity as soon as 2015 **GOSAT-2 mission definition review will be in 2010, and request budget for start pre-project in 2011. ***JEM-DIAL has been studying dedicated CO2 measurement to be aboard ISS –Japan Exposure Module Geo Carbon strategy (ii) • improve access to a continuous supply of mid-resolution Earth observing (satellite) data, to monitor areas of forest; • improve access to geospatial and temporal fossil fuel emission information, including spatial-data infrastructure; • assemble geospatial information about use of wood and food products, and continuously monitored dissolved and particulate carbon, if possible with age information, for relevant rivers; • implement a data architecture that facilitates the combination of different data-streams; • establish an International Carbon Office to operate a program to produce annually updated regional and global carbon budgets. Action T33 • Action: Develop globally gridded estimates of terrestrial carbon flux from in situ observations and satellite products and assimilation/inversions models. • Who: Reanalysis centres, research organisations, in association with national institutes, space agencies, FAO/GTOS (TCO and TOPC) • Time Frame: 2014-2019 • Performance indicator: Availability of data assimilation systems, and global time series of maps of various terrestrial components of carbon exchange (e.g. GPP, NEP, NBP) • Annual Cost Implications: 10-30M USD (Mainly by Annex-I Parties). TOPC and WOAP • Are the ECV products tuned to climate models, can they be used as input or benchmarks? • How can we optimize their use? • How do we implement the GCOS guidelines? • Set up international activity (WCRP/GCOS supporting the evaluation of global climate datasets – Workshop Frascati April 2011 Biodiversity Action T4 Initiate an ecosystem monitoring network acquiring “Essential Ecosystem Records” (see section 3.8), by exploiting collocation opportunities with the global terrestrial reference network (Action T3) and the network of validation sites (T29). Who: Parties’ national services and research agencies, GTOS (Global Observation of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD)), TOPC, GEOBON, in association with the UNCBD. Time-frame: Network concept and observation approach by 2011; Implementation by 2014. Performance Indicator: Availability of essential ecosystem records, including proper documentation, from all designated sites in the network.Annual Cost Implications: 30-100M US$ (50% in non-Annex-I Parties). How far do we want to go into this, is biodiversity an ECV?