TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO
EVACUATE FOR
HURRICANES
A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN
MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE
BENEFIT OF MILLIONS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH
EVACUATION IS TYPICAL
FLOODS
GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT
OF HARM’S WAY
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR
SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW
BENEFIT/COST FOR
PROTECTING PROPERTY
HURRICANES
TYPHOONS
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
WILDFIRES
EXAMPLE: HURRICANE DEAN
THE FIRST NORTH ATLANTIC
HURRICANE OF 2007 CAUSED
EVACUATIONS AND PREPARATIONS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OUTER SPACE
A CATEGORY 2-3 STORM ON 17 AUGUST
2007
A CATEGORY 4 STORM ON 18 AUGUST 2007
A CATEGORY 5 STORM ON 20-21 AUGUST
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HURRICANE HAZARD
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
YOUR
COMMUNITY
HURRICANE RISK
REDUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREVENTION/MITIGATION
•PREPAREDNESS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
• EDUCATIONAL SURGE
IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO
EVACUATE, YOU MUST
PREPARE TO FIGHT THE
WIND, WATER, AND
MUDSLIDES THAT ARE
COMING
HAZARDS OF A HURRICANE
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE
DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5
(155 mph or greater)
• STORM SURGE
• HEAVY PRECIPITATION
• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)
• COSTAL EROSION
• STORM PACKETS (SOMETIMES)
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
WIND PENETRATING
BUILDING ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS
HURRICANES
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
STORM SURGE
IRREGULARITIES IN
ELEVATION AND PLAN
SITING PROBLEMS
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
MONITORING TECHNOLOGY IS
A VITAL PART OF THE STORY
HURRICANE DEAN: CATEGORY
2 STORM ON AUGUST 16
HURRICANE DEAN: CATEGORY
2-3 STORM ON AUGUST 17
PROJECTED STORM TRACK:
AUGUST 17, 2007
HURRICANE DEAN: PHOTO FROM SPACE
SHUTTLE ENDEAVOR ON AUGUST 18
A CATEGORY 4 STORM ON
AUGUST 18
HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL
AS CATEGORY 5 STORM: AUG 21
HURRICANE DEAN BECOMES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION: AUG 23
DETAILS OF THE STORY
HURRICANE DEAN: A CATEGORY
2-3 STORM ON AUGUST 17
• The eye of hurricane Dean, the first of
the North Atlantic season, passed
between the Caribbean islands: St.
Lucia and Martinique, on Friday,
August 17.
• The two islands, less than 80 km (50
mi) apart were, were struck with winds
of 165 - 200 km per hour (100 - 125 mi
per hour), storm surge, and heavy rain.
IMPACTS ON MARTINIQUE
• In Martinique, Hurricane Dean ripped roofs from
houses, schools, and other buildings.
• 100 percent of Martinique’s banana crop and 70
percent of the sugar cane crop were destroyed.
• Trees were downed.
• Electrical power was knocked out.
• Airport were closed.
• Tourists in coastal hotels were evacuated.
• $270 million damage to infrastructure
FORT DE FRANCE, MARTINIQUE:
AERIAL VIEW ON AUGUST 17
FORT DE FRANCE, MARTINIQUE
FORT DE FRANCE,
MARTINIQUE:BOAT SINKING
FORT DE FRANCE,
MARTINIQUE: WIND AND RAIN
FORT DE FRANCE,
MARTINIQUE: ROOF DAMAGE
FORT DE FRANCE,
MARTINIQUE: FLOODING
FORT DE FRANCE,
MARTINIQUE: FLOODING
FORT DE FRANCE,
MARTINIQUE: FLOODING
FORT DE FRANCE,
MARTINIQUE: FLOODING
IMPACTS ON ST. LUCIA
• In St. Lucia, Hurricane Dean turned the
capital into a messy mixture of flood water
and debris.
• It ripped corrugated roofs off houses as well
as the roof of the pediatric wing of Victoria
Hospital.
• It forced evacuations.
DAMAGE IN ST LUCIA
IMPACTS ON ST. LUCIA
• Hurricane Dean’s storm surge breached a
protective sea wall, caused flooding, and
created mountains of debris.
• Downed electrical power poles and lines
forced utility companies to shut off
electrical power to prevent electrocution.
• Loss of communications forced door-todoor warnings.
BARBADOS: PREPARATION
FOR HURRICANE DEAN
IMPACTS ON DOMINICA
• In Dominica, which is located north
of Martinique, Hurricane Dean
caused flooding, damaged 150
houses, and downed some fences
and trees.
• Dominica’s banana crop, a major
export, was battered by Dean’s
winds and rain.
EXPECTED IMPACTS ON HAITI AND
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
• Hurricane Dean was expected to
dump 12 cm (5 in) of rain on
Hispanola, the location of Haiti and
the Dominion Republic.
• Haiti and the Dominion Republic
are both prone to landslides and
flooding, which heavy rainfall will
exacerbate.
HURRICANE DEAN: DOWNED
TREE IN HAITI
A CAT 4 STORM WITH WINDS OF
150 MPH: AUGUST 18
HURRICANE DEAN: HEADED FOR
JAMAICA ON AUGUST 18
A CAT 5 STORM: AUG 21
PREPARATION ON JAMAICA FOR
DEAN’S ARRIVAL ON AUGUST 19
• Remembering tropical storm
Jeanne in 2004 and expecting a
direct hit from Hurricane Dean on
Sunday with high winds and up to
50 cm (20 in) of rain, the 3 million
residents were advised to began
serious preparations.
PREPARATION ON JAMAICA FOR
DEAN’S ARRIVAL ON AUGUST 19
• If riding out the storm, the initial
actions were to stock up on food
and water, to board houses, and tie
down loose objects.
• If evacuating, to move to shelters,
or leave the area.
PREPARATION IN JAMAICA
KINGSTON, JAMAICA:
PREPARATION FOR DEAN
KINGSTON, JAMAICA:
PREPARATION FOR DEAN
PREPARATION IN JAMAICA FOR
DEAN’S ARRIVAL ON AUGUST 19
• Tourists began going to the airport to leave.
• Officials called a halt to campaigning for the
elections on August 27th.
• 1,000 Hurricane shelters in schools,
churches, and indoor sports arenas were
opened on August 18th and placed in a
state-of-readiness.
• But only 47 were fully occupied when the
winds and rains began arriving on the 19th.
PREPARATION IN PEDERNALES:
EVACUEES IN A CHURCH SHELTER
JAMAICA: STORM SURGE
DESTROYED HOUSE
FLOODING AND DAMAGE IN
JAMAICA
ROOF DAMAGE IN JAMAICA
DAMAGE AND FLOODING IN
PORT AU PRINCE: JAMAICA
FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND
DEBRIS IN KINGSTON, JAMAICA
CARIBBEAN INSURED LOSSES
ESTIMATED AT $1.5 TO $3 BILLION
• Most of the insured loss of $1.5 to
$3 billion calculated by risk
modeling company, EQECAT, for
Hurricane Dean’s trek through the
Caribbean is in Jamaica.
DEAN BECOMES A CATEGORY
5 STORM: AUGUST 20, 2007
DEAN HEADED TOWARD MEXICO
AND GULF OF MEXICO
• Hurricane Dean Intensified as it passed
through the warmer Caribbean waters.
• Landfall in Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula
will decrease the intensity.
• A category 5 storm, a rare level, will
still be dangerous when it reaches the
Gulf of Mexico.
PREPARATIONS IN CUBA FOR
DEAN’S ARRIVAL ON AUGUST 19
• After earlier warnings by the US National
Hurricane Center issued warnings for Cuba
and other Caribbean island nations, the
Cuban Government issued its own tropical
storm warning.
• The Government began evacuating 50,000
residents from three central and eastern
provinces to shelters.
SPACE SHUTTLE ENDEAVOR
DOCKED AT THE ISS
PREPARATION BY NASA FOR
DEAN’S ARRIVAL
• Fearing that Hurricane Dean might threaten
the Houston home of Mission Control, NASA
shortened the last spacewalk for astronauts
aboard the shuttle Endeavor that was
docked at the International Space Station
until Sunday, August 19th.
• The spacecraft was ordered to return.
• It undocked on Sunday in order to arrive on
Tuesday, August 21, before the projected
arrival of Hurricane Dean.
INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
AFTER UNDOCKING: AUG 19
PREPARATION IN TEXAS FOR
DEAN’S ARRIVAL
• Remembering the lessons learned in 2005
from the evacuation-traffic-jams before the
arrival of Hurricane Rita, Texas Governor
Rick Perry began full-scale preparations for
Hurricane Dean days ahead.
• Fuel trucks were dispatched to coastal
communities to facilitate evacuations.
• Other resources were positioned along
evacuation routes.
TEXAS’ HURRICANE DEAN
OPERATIONS CENTER
SOUTH TEXAS: PREPARING
FOR EVACUATION, AUGUST 19
PREPARATION IN TEXAS FOR
HURRICANE DEAN’S ARRIVAL
• The Governor ordered the state’s
storm response task forces to be
on an alert status.
• Communications were established
with President Bush to request predisaster assistance.
PREPARATION BY PRESIDENT BUSH
FOR DEAN’S ARRIVAL
• President Bush took a unique, pre-emptive
strategic step of preparedness for Hurricane
Dean on Saturday, August 18th by signing a
pre-landfall disaster declaration.
• This declaration, a first for the USA, will
allow the Federal Government to move in
people, equipment, and supplies
immediately if Hurricane Dean strikes the
south Texas-Mexico border, as expected.
COORDINATED PLANNING BY USA,
MEXICO, AND CANADA
• President Bush met with the
leaders of Mexico and Canada on
Monday, August 20th to continue
coordinated planning of mutual
assistance before the arrival of
Hurricane Dean.
STOCKING UP IN CANCUN,
MEXICO: AUGUST 19
REMEMBERING WILMA, TOURISTS
LEAVE CANCUN: AUGUST 19
50,000 TOURISTS LEFT MEXICO
BY AUGUST 20
CHETUMAL: TAKING SHELTER
IN A SCHOOL; AUGUST 20
ADVANCE PREPARTIONS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO
• The Gulf has 4,000 multi-million
dollar oil and gas platforms and
facilities that were at risk from
hurricane Dean’s strong winds and
the accompanying high waves.
• Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005
flooded oil refineries, toppled oil
rigs, and cut pipelines.
ADVANCE PREPARTIONS OF
FACILITIES AT RISK IN THE GULF
• Pemex, Mexico’s oil company, began
evacuating 13,500 workers from its oil rigs
in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, August 20.
• Petroleos Mexicanos evacuated all 18,000
offshore workers and shut down production
rigs on the Bay of Campeche.
• This action will result in a loss of revenue
from production of 2.7 million barrels of oil
and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas a
day.
PEMEX OIL AND GAS
PLATFORM IN GULF OF MEXICO
PREDICTED CHANGES IN
CATEGORY: 20-21 AUGUST 2007
HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL
AS CATEGORY 5 STORM: AUG 21
HURRICANE DEAN AT LANDFALL:
AUGUST 21
• Hurricane Dean made landfall at
Majahual, Mexico as a category 5 storm
with winds of 165 mi/hr.
• Before landfall, Dean had a minimum
central pressure of 906 millibars, third
lowest pressure after the 1935 Labor
Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and
Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.
HURRICANE DEAN’S LANDFALL:
AUGUST 21
• Hurricane Dean’s landfall at Majahual,
a port popular with cruise liners, was
“good luck” for the people of Mexico.
• This location was a sparsely populated
coastline that had already been
evacuated, so none of the major
resorts took a direct hit, and after a few
hours, dean became a CAT 2 storm.
A THREAT TO THE MAYANS:
AUGUST 21
• Hurricane Dean threatened the
Yucatan’s mist vulnerable people —
the Mayans.
• The Mayans, who have not benefited
from tourism or oil production, live
simple lives, in wooden slat houses
susceptible to wind damage and in lowlying areas prone to flooding.
LOCATION OF MEXICO’S MAYAN
COMMUNITIES
LIMONES, A MAYAN COMMUNITY,
WAS HIT HARD: AUGUST 22-23
MAYAN COMMUNITIES SEVERELY
IMPACTED
• Mexico’s Mayan communities have survived
many damaging storms and centuries of
oppression, but surviving the impacts of
Hurricane Dean on their livelihood may be
their greatest challenge ever.
• The greatest impact was NOT the
thousands of destroyed Mayan homes, but
the downed fruit-bearing trees and the corn
crops they needed for daily existence.
IMPACTS IN MAJAHUAL
• Hundreds of homes collapsed in
Mexico’s second busiest cruise ship
destination.
• Steel girders collapsed and wooden
structures splintered from the force of
the wind.
• About one-half the concrete dock
washed away in the storm surge.
MAJAHUAL LANDFALL: 270 KM/HR
(165 MI/HR) WINDS; AUGUST 21
RESORT AREAS WERE SPARED
A DIRECT HIT:
CANCUN: NO DAMAGE EXCEPT
LOSS OF BEACH SAND; AUG 21
CHETUMAL: 125 MI/HR WINDS;
AUGUST 21
CHETUMAL: FLOODING ON
AUGUST 21
BACALAR: FLOODING; AUGUST
21
HURRICANE DEAN’S SECOND
LANDFALL: TECOLUTLA, MEXICO
THE SECOND LANDFALL IN
MEXICO: AUGUST 22
• Hurricane Dean crossed the Bay of
Campeche and made a second landfall
as a category 2 storm on Wednesday,
August 22.
• Landfall was at Tecolutla, a fishing
town in the state of Veracruz on the
Central Mexican coast, about 660 km
(400 mi) from the border with Texas.
TECOLUTLA RESIDENTS
EVACUATED BEFORE LANDFALL
PRESIDENT FELIPE CALDERON
VISITS CHETUMAL: AUGUST 22
STORM SURGE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL: AUGUST 22
• Hurricane Dean’s storm surge flooded
Ciuidad del Carmen, a town of 120,000,
with waist deep sea water.
• Heavy rainfall accompanying Dean,
now a category 1 storm, caused rivers
to rise rapidly in a region that had
experienced flooding and landslides in
1999.
DEAN BECOMES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON AUG 23
THE END OF HURRICANE DEAN
• As Hurricane Dean diminished to a
tropical storm, its impacts in Mexico
and South Texas were mainly flooding
and landslides associated with and
exacerbated by the runoff from the
heavy rainfall accompanying the storm.
INSURED LOSSES FOR DEAN
• Caribbean island nations (Martinique,
St Lucia, Dominica, Haiti, Barbados,
Dominican Republic, especially
Jamaica, and Cuba) were hit hard, with
insured losses estimated at $ 1.5 to $ 3
billion.
• Insured losses in Mexico were
estimated at $300 million.
THE FUTURE AFTER DEAN
• Caribbean island nations began
recovery and reconstruction programs.
• Mexico began its reconstruction and
recovery program.
• The future of the Mayan community is a
major concern.
TEXAS BEGINS TO DISMANTLE
HURRICANE SHELTER
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER:
WORKING ON ERIN,THE NEXT STORM