= Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education 17 May 2012 Contents 1. Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... 4 2. Approach 3. Comparison of Scenario Outcomes ..................................................................................................... 8 4. Impact of Discipline Shift ................................................................................................................. 12 .................................................................................................................................... 6 Appendix A Parameters ................................................................................................................. 14 Appendix B Scenario Sources and Assumptions ............................................................................... 15 © 2012 Ernst & Young, Australia. All Rights Reserved. Ernst & Young is a registered trademark. Our report may be relied upon by the Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education for the purpose of an independent review of higher education funding levels only pursuant to the terms of our engagement letter dated 24 April 2012. 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Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 3 1. Executive Summary 1.1 Introduction The Bradley Review in 2008 identified a range of structural and funding reforms which the Government considered. The Government’s response to the Bradley Review was structured around a 10 year reform agenda that included: ► ► ► ► ► ► phasing in a new system for higher education funding to allocate funding on the basis of student demand changes to funding for university research upgrades to higher education infrastructure changes to the indexation for teaching, learning and research under the Higher Education Support Act 2003 measures to better support students and improve lower socio-economic status student participation strengthening linkages between higher education and vocational sectors The Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (DIISRTE) provides advice to Government that compares the higher education funding per student load under a range of scenarios, including pre- and post-Bradley review. The Department engaged Ernst & Young to conduct an independent review of the Department’s analysis and methodology to provide insights into the analysis and identification of any gaps. 1.1.1 Scope Ernst & Young worked with Department officials to examine data sources, indexation, and parameters to produce an analysis that builds upon work already conducted by the Department. The output of the analysis is documented in this report. 1.1.2 Scenarios The Department had examined a number of approaches to comparing the higher education funding per student load. This included straight line forecasts, based on different indexation factors, applied to the average funding per student load in the year prior to the Bradley Review. For our analysis, two scenarios were created to compare the effect of the Bradley Review reforms from a first principles approach. Understandably, attempting to describe the differences between pre- and post-Bradley review environments is complex and ultimately affected by assumptions made about likely higher education institutional behaviours and Government policies under each scenario. The pre-Bradley review scenario (Scenario 1) is based on a likely peak in student load growth based on the over-enrolment provisions applied at that time. This is combined with published funding data and indexation rates used at the time. The Post-Bradley review scenario (Scenario 2) used available data and forecast future student load growth based on institutional estimates, departmental funding estimates and identified pre-& post-Bradley review indexation factors. 1.2 Findings ► The original requirement sought to determine if any potential improvements to the Department’s analysis and methodology were required. In conducting this we have created an alternative approach to describe the same outcomes and have reached a similar conclusion. Based on our review, we believe the assumptions presented in the Departments approach are relevant and reasonable. ► The importance of choice of index in funding the higher education sector is apparent in nominal terms. Based on available data, Post-Bradley Review indexation parameters demonstrate a likely higher funding growth trajectory with all other parameters being held constant. ► Under the two scenarios examined (Scenario 1 - Pre Bradley Review and Scenario 2 - Post Bradley Review), there would be an increase in funding for teaching, learning and research both in aggregate and on a per student load basis over time. Scenario 2 (Post Bradley Review) indicates that there is generally more funding per student load from 2012 onwards. Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 4 ► There is more funding on aggregate in Scenario 2 for teaching and learning and this is associated with increased Commonwealth supported student load in current university estimates (approximately 90,000 more Estimated Full-Time Student Load (EFTSL) in 2013 under Scenario 2 than in 2013 under Scenario 1). ► For teaching, learning and research in 2013, the per EFTSL funding is $19,524 for Scenario 1 and $21,488 for Scenario 2, the difference being an increase of 10.1% over Scenario 1. ► For teaching and learning only in 2013, the per EFTSL funding is $18,074 for Scenario 1 and $19,600 for Scenario 2, the difference being an increase of 8.4% over Scenario 1. ► We note that the data supporting the analysis (such as the university estimates of student loads) reflects a sector in the midst of significant reform. There is an element of uncertainty as to the impact of the economic and sector changes on the forecast data used. ► Departmental analysis indicates there are likely impacts on the funding per student load as a result of movements between high and low rate disciplines. The analysis indicates a trend in both scenarios to higher cost discipline mix. We assess these impacts to be marginal based on our assessment of the departmental analysis. Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 5 2. Approach 2.1 Overview The calculation of higher education funding per estimated full–time equivalent student load (EFTSL) is based on a simple arithmetic average. This comprises the summation of relevant funding programs, grant monies and student contributions relating to teaching, learning and research that support student places. This is divided by the total Commonwealth-subsidised EFTSL (including Commonwealth supported places and research places). Two scenarios were constructed. The first scenario (Scenario 1 – Pre Bradley Review) examined the likely outcome if no Bradley Review related reforms were made and funding levels as published in 2008-09 remained in effect. The second scenario (Scenario 2 – Post Bradley Review) examined the effects of the Bradley Review higher education reforms from 2010 onwards. Student numbers for each scenario were developed based on the unique parameters of each scenario. These are detailed in Appendix A. We note that both scenarios are attempting to represent, in reasonably simple terms, two alternate views of a complex environment. Assumptions have been used to vary the underlying parameters. These assessments rely on the chain of assumptions and are based on our interpretation of the likely outcome of each scenario based on advice and data provided by the Department. The Department advises that the construction of the pre-Bradley scenario poses particular difficulties because it requires assumptions about university behavior under the policy settings applicable in 2009 and possible Government responses. This is addressed in the Departmental analysis by assuming that the net effect of all actions will be a stable funding per EFTSL amount under the pre-Bradley scenario in real terms. In contrast our approach for the preBradley scenario (Scenario 1) presents an alternative version of pre-Bradley funding using estimates of the funding and Commonwealth subsidised student load. 2.2 Funding Data Sources The funding data used in the analysis was based on calendar year, Departmental budget estimates. A list of higher education programs and grants were reviewed. Programs and grants were included (or excluded) from the two scenarios based on the type of program and whether or not the funding supported teaching and learning, student places or research. Scenario 1 excluded Bradley reform programs. Scenario 2 included these Bradley reform programs. Once the programs and grants were identified, the adjusted base year dollars for identified programs and grants were sourced from two departmental models. One model captured learning and teaching programs and grants (including student contributions) and the other model captured research programs and grants. A summary of the scenario data sources and related assumptions are outlined in the table at Appendix B. 2.3 Student Load Data Sources Student load data was drawn from several sources under both scenarios. For Scenario 1 data on teaching and learning student load places was sourced from the Commonwealth Grant Scheme (CGS) target load model. For Scenario 2 teaching and learning student load was drawn from Departmental estimates that rely on advice provided by universities on their anticipated number of places for the three years 2012 to 2014. This was supplemented with data sourced for research places based on historical data for International Postgraduate Research scholarships and Research Training Scheme places. For scenario 1, this data was modified for 2010 and future years to account for likely student loads in the absence of the Bradley review reforms in this scenario. Under the policy settings for Scenario 1 the CGS included an allowance of additional funding for ’over enrolled’ student places up to 5% above a university’s basic grant. Above the 5% universities received only the student contribution amount for the place. The final parameters used in the scenario included the full 5% over-enrolment allowance in CGS funding and HECS-HELP. This was combined with a 5% ‘over-enrolment’ in Commonwealth supported places for each year. Advice from the Department indicates that the 5% over-enrolment would not be uniform across all institutions and consequently it would be unlikely to Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 6 gain a full 5% increase in associated CGS funding. Given the unpredictability of the student loads in this scenario, a conservative assumption of a full 5% increase in CGS funding for over-enrolments was used. Forecast data for research places were assumed to be held static over the forecast period. For Scenario 2, the teaching and learning student load was forecast based on higher education institution estimates (from 2012 onwards) provided to the Department. As with Scenario 1, forecast data for research places were assumed to be held static over the forecast period for Scenario 2. 2.4 Indexation Prior to the Bradley Review, the indexation scheme to adjust higher education funding amounts was the Higher Education Indexation Factor. This index was a composite index weighted 75% on the Safety Net Adjustment (SNA) index and 25% on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This indexation method was used to present the pre-Bradley reform scenario in nominal terms. In response to the Bradley Review recommendations, the Government adopted a new indexation approach from 2011. The new indexation approach was a weighted composite index. The first component of the new index maintains the weightings (75% and 25%) but has replaced the SNA with the Labour Price Index for Professional Scientific and Technical Services discounted by 10% to encourage increased productivity. The CPI index remains as the second component of the index. The index applied to student contributions in 2011 and both student contributions and grants from 2012 was implicit in the post-Bradley forecasts in nominal terms (from 2012 onwards). The actual data in Scenario 2 (from 2008 to 2011) was indexed using the Higher Education Indexation Factor to present the data in nominal terms. Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 7 3. Comparison of Scenario Outcomes 3.1 Comparison of Scenario Outcomes for Teaching, Learning, Research and HEC-HELP funding Our review indicates that higher education funding per Commonwealth subsidised EFTSL is generally increasing under both scenarios over the period based on the data and assumptions provided. Higher Education Funding per Equivalent Full-time Student Load (Teaching & Learning, Research & HECS-HELP- Current Year Dollars) $25,000 $20,000 $ per EFTSL $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Calendar Year Scenario 1 - Pre Bradley Review Scenario 2 - Post Bradley Review Figure 1: Higher Education Funding per Equivalent Full-time Student Load in nominal dollars Scenario 2 funding per EFTSL exceeds Scenario 1 in nominal terms from 2012 onwards. The divergence between scenarios is partially explained by the difference in the scenario parameters around program funding reflecting changes implemented post-Bradley Review. The effect of the Bradley review indexation reforms are evident and show a greater gradient of growth in funding from 2012. These are largely as a result of the change in the indexation factor in Scenario 2 as well as places being fully funded and additional expenditure for some programs. In 2013, the per EFTSL funding is $19,524 for Scenario 1 and $21,488 for Scenario 2, the difference being an increase of 10.1% over Scenario 1. Scenario 1 Year Total Funding ($M) Total EFTSL Average $ per EFTSL 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8,082 8,620 9,172 9,448 9,686 9,880 463,321 493,243 498,517 503,176 505,688 506,031 $17,476 $18,399 $18,776 $19,154 $19,524 $17,444 Table 1: Scenario 1 – Pre-Bradley Review funding scenario in nominal dollars Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 8 Scenario 2 Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8,082 8,620 9,560 10,054 11,646 12,828 463,321 493,243 524,283 543,479 572,479 596,979 $17,476 $18,234 $18,500 $20,343 $21,488 Total Funding ($M) Total EFTSL Average $ per EFTSL $17,444 Table 2: Scenario 2 – Post-Bradley Review funding scenario in nominal dollars Difference (Scenario 2 less Scenario 1 data) Year Total Funding ($M) Total EFTSL Average $ per EFTSL 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 0 388 606 1,960 2,948 0 0 25,766 40,303 66,791 90,948 0 0 -$165 -$276 $1,189 $1,964 Table 3: Difference between Scenario 1 and 2 in nominal dollars 3.2 Comparison of Scenario Outcomes for Teaching and Learning and HECSHELP elements only Further analysis of the funding levels per student load removing the data associated with research and research places provides a similar outcome to the previous view. Higher Education Funding per Equivalent Full-time Student Load (Teaching & Learning, HECS-HELP excluding Research- Current Year Dollars) $25,000 $20,000 $ per EFTSL $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Calendar Year Scenario 1 - Pre Bradley Review Scenario 2 - Post Bradley Review Figure 2: Higher Education Funding per Equivalent Full-time Student Load in nominal dollars excluding research funding and student load The Teaching and Learning funding analysis indicates a very similar comparative outcome between the scenarios. Funding has generally increased over the period with a slight decrease in funding per Commonwealth-subsidised EFTSL under Scenario 2 in 2011. Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 9 Scenario 2 funding per EFTSL exceeds Scenario 1 in nominal terms in 2010 and from 2012 onwards. In 2013, the per EFTSL funding is $18,074 for Scenario 1 and $19,600 for Scenario 2, the difference being an increase of 8.4% over Scenario 1. Scenario 1 Year Total Funding ($M) Total EFTSL Average $ per EFTSL 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6,953 7,470 8,148 8,347 8,510 8,619 439,666 469,438 496,506 492,271 485,691 476,867 $15,913 $16,410 $16,957 $17,522 $18,074 $15,815 Table 4: Scenario 1 – Pre-Bradley Review funding (excluding research funding and places) scenario in nominal dollars Scenario 2 Year Total Funding ($M) Total EFTSL Average $ per EFTSL 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6,953 7,470 8,301 8,740 10,251 11,219 439,666 469,438 499,704 518,900 547,900 572,400 $15,913 $16,612 $16,842 $18,709 $19,600 $15,815 Table 5: Scenario 2 – Post-Bradley Review funding (excluding research funding and places) scenario in nominal dollars Difference (Scenario 2 less Scenario 1 data) Year Total Funding ($M) Total EFTSL Average $ per EFTSL 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 0 153 392 1,740 2,600 0 0 3,198 26,629 62,209 95,533 0 0 -$202 -$114 $1,187 $1,964 Table 6: Difference between Scenario 1 and 2(excluding research funding and places) in nominal dollars 3.3 Comparison with the Departmental analysis The Departmental analysis provides an alternative approach to estimating the pre-Bradley funding for estimated student load. This analysis was conducted by the Department and is included here. The foundation of the Departmental analysis was a steady growth in the 2008 Commonwealth-subsidised funding per EFTSL based on the pre-Bradley review indexation factor. The department’s explanation suggests 2008 was chosen because it gives a relatively stable funding picture unaffected by actions taken by universities in anticipation of the Bradley reforms and did not have ‘unusually’ high over enrolments. This assumes proportional increases in student load and funding increases predominately driven by indexation. The range of programs and sources for student load used for calculating the per place funding in the Departmental analysis is the same as under our Scenario 1. Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 10 Higher Education Funding per Equivalent Full-time Student Load (Teaching & Learning, Research & HECS-HELP- Current Year Dollars) $25,000 $20,000 $ per EFTSL $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Calendar Year Scenario 1 - Pre Bradley Review Scenario 2 - Post Bradley Review Pre-Bradley Review - Dept. Analysis Figure 3: Higher Education Funding per Equivalent Full-time Student Load in nominal dollars compared with the Department’s analysis In this comparison, the growth in the Departmental analysis does not maintain parity with either scenario although it is closer to Scenario 1. This suggests that average funding per EFTSL would likely have fallen without additional funding injected into the sector. Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 11 4. Impact of Discipline Shift The Department completed an analysis which sought to examine the difference between the pre-Bradley review scenario and post-Bradley review scenario attributable to the shift between discipline clusters. The departmental analysis examined this effect for Commonwealth supported places in both the Commonwealth Grant Scheme funding and student contribution amounts. This analysis, separate from our analysis, is shown below. The inclusion of this data is relevant to examine the potential effect of discipline shift in the context of our analysis. The data for the Departmental analysis is drawn for the same sources for student load as used in our scenarios, though has been modified in line with Departmental assumptions. The analysis examined the proportional student loads per cluster based on target student loads for the same year (2012) prior to the Bradley Review. These were compared to the proportional student loads per cluster after the Bradley Review (2012). The analysis also compared the effect of discipline shift on the Department’s analysis of funding impacts under the Pre-Bradley scenario (as shown in section 3.3) It determined that the funding per EFTSL (including CGS and student contribution) between the two snapshots (pre and post Bradley respectively) was slightly different in nominal terms. Description Outcome Funding per EFTSL – 2012 Post Bradley Review distribution $17,151 Funding per EFTSL – 2012 Pre-Bradley Review distribution $17,035 Difference in $ $115 Difference as % of Pre-Bradley Review funding per EFTSL 0.7% Table 7: Summary of Departmental analysis of changes in funding per EFTSL due to discipline shift The departmental analysis indicates that this can in part be explained by a slight shift in student places from low rate clusters to high rate clusters between pre and post Bradley scenarios. This is shown in the table below for the cluster split for Commonwealth Supported Places: Cluster and Cluster rate Cluster 1 $1,861 Cluster 2 $5,168 Cluster 3 $9,142 Cluster 4 $9,512 Cluster 5 $11,243 Cluster 6 $12,552 Cluster 7 $15,983 Cluster 8 $20,284 Total Pre-Bradley Proportional Split of EFTSL in 2012 19.3% 5.3% 23.4% 11.6% 13.1% 6.0% 15.7% 5.7% 100% Post-Bradley Review Proportional Split of EFTSL in 2012 18.2% 5.2% 23.9% 10.9% 13.9% 5.8% 16.6% 5.4% 100% Difference splits -1.0% -0.1% 0.5% -0.7% 0.8% -0.1% 0.9% -0.2% (Government Contribution only) Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 12 Table 8: Summary of changes in proportion of split between Pre-Bradley and Post-Bradley Review against clusters. As well as this shift in Government funding for Commonwealth supported places the corresponding shift in student contributions affects the total funding and has seen a higher proportion in lower contribution bands for the pre-Bradley scenario.1 NP Band* $4,520 Band 1 $5,648 Band 2 $8,050 Band 3 $9,425 Total (Student Contribution Only) Band and Band rate Proportional Split of EFTSL in 2007 - 45.4% 31.6% 23.0% 100% Proportional Split of EFTSL in 2012 - 45.0% 32.8% 22.1% 100% Difference between 2007 and 2012 split - -0.3% 1.2% -0.9% Table 9: Summary of changes in proportion of split between Pre-Bradley and Post-Bradley Review split against student contribution bands. *Note: In the Department’s analysis disciplines in the National Priorities band were allocated to their original band under all scenarios for each of the two years. This isolated the impact of discipline shift on per place funding rates from the impact of policy changes to student contribution levels. Combining these insights with the prior analysis in Section 3 suggests the effect of discipline shift on the difference between the two Scenarios is likely to be a marginal impact only (of around 0.7%), based on this departmental analysis. Further analysis by the Department on the difference between our assessment of Scenario 1 (Pre-Bradley Review) and the Departmental analysis (shown in Section 3.3) indicates that the impact of discipline shift on their estimate (which has a snapshot of disciplines in 2008) against our Scenario 1 estimate (which assumes discipline shift occurring) is minimal. Description 2012 Funding per EFTSL – 2008 distribution (Departmental analysis) Funding per EFTSL – 2012 Pre-Bradley Review distribution Difference in $ Difference as % of Department analysis Outcome $16,912 $17,035 $123 0.7% Table 10: Summary of Departmental analysis and Pre-Bradley Review scenario of changes in funding per EFTSL due to discipline shift 1 Note that there is a correlation between the cluster rate and the student contribution band though depending on the discipline the cluster can map to more than one band. Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Ernst & Young 13 Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Appendix A Parameters Scenario 1 – Pre-Bradley Review Reforms Scenario 2- Post Bradley Review Reforms ► Indexation: 75% SNA index and 25% CPI ► Indexation: All data is indexed based on the index factor ► Indexation: 75% of 90% of the growth in the Labour Price index determined above ► EFTSL – 2008 and 2009 are based on actual student load ► EFTSL – 2010 onwards has 5% over enrolment funding and 5% over-enrolment growth in student load (year on year) above target loads (Scientific and Technical) and 25% CPI ► Indexation: 2008-2011 data is indexed based on the Scenario 1 index (as it was the index used for that cost base). 2012 onwards uses the indexation factor agreed by Govt. in response to the Bradley Review as above. ► Grant and Program funding amounts– 2008, 2009 are based ► EFTSL – 2008 to 2010 are based on actual student load ► EFTSL – 2011 onwards is higher education institution ► Grant and Program funding amounts– 2010 onwards are ► Grant and Program funding amounts– 2008, 2009, 2010, on actuals forward estimates prior to updates for Bradley funding measures estimates 2011 are based on actuals ► Grant and Program funding amounts– 2012 onwards are estimates ‘ Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 14 Appendix B Scenario Sources and Assumptions Summary of Approach analysis Table 11: Assumptions and data sources used in Scenario 1 (and sensitivity analysis) Scenario Data Sources Pre-Bradley Reform Teaching and Learning Program and Grant Funding 2008, 2009 Actuals Model: Higher Ed Actual Expenditure - 2005-2016 (30 January 2012).xlsx 2010 onwards Model: DEEWR Summary of Est 30 April 2012(Apr prices) Worksheet: Adjusted Base estimates Research Program and Grant Funding Model: DIISR Summary Feb 2011 estimates revised indexation SC.xlsx Worksheet: Adjusted Base estimates HECS-HELP Loan funding 2008, 2009 Actuals Determined amounts sourced from UniPay Estimated Full-time Student Load Assumptions and Adjustments 2010 onwards Adjustments were made to Commonwealth Grant Scheme funding to account for an annual 5% over-enrolment allowance from 2010 onwards. 2010 onwards Model: FE 2007-08 v24.0 M+S student contrib red Update for 2008_09 budget measure (May 08) (5% over enrolment scenario 2) adjusted.xlsx 2010 onwards Adjustments made based on 5% over-enrolment from funding agreement target. CGS and HECS-HELP CGS and HECS-HELP 2008, 2009 Actuals Determined amounts sourced from UniPay Actual student load taken from UniPay 2010 onwards 2010 onwards Adjustments were made to Model: CGS Database_Final pre- Commonwealth Grant Scheme funding to account for an annual 2012 version.xlsx 5% over-enrolment allowance from 2010 onwards. Research All years 2010IPRS_2008-10RTSLoad 03-05-12.xlsx Research Assumptions and Adjustments Historic RTS data was used for 2008, 2009 and 2010 and assumed constant for forecasts. IPRS headcount data for 2010 was made available and this was assumed to be the flat rate for all years. IPRS headcount was assumed to equal EFTSL on the assumption visa conditions and scholarships require full-time study commitment. Table 12: Assumptions and data sources used in Scenario 2 Scenario Data Sources Post-Bradley Reform Teaching and Learning Program and Grant Funding 2008, 2009 and 2010 Actuals and 2011 estimated actuals Model: Higher Ed Actual Expenditure - 2005-2016 (30 January 2012).xlsx . Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Ernst & Young 15 2012 onwards Model: DEEWR Summary of Est 30 April 2012(Apr prices) Worksheet: Adjusted Base estimates Research Program and Grant Funding Model: DIISR Summary Feb 2011 estimates revised indexation SC.xlsx Worksheet: Adjusted Base estimates HECS-HELP Loan funding 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 Actuals Determined amounts sourced from UniPay 2012 onwards Model: HELP MODEL version: FE2011-12 v21 Estimated Full-time Student Load CGS and HECS-HELP CGS and HECS-HELP 2008, 2009 and 2010 Actuals and 2011 estimated actuals Determined amounts sourced from UniPay 2008, 2009, 2010 Actuals, and 2011 estimated actuals Actual student load taken from UniPay 2012 onwards Model: Summary of funding and enrolments 18 April.xlsx 2012 onwards Forecast based on CGS estimate from higher education institutions. Research All years 2010IPRS_2008-10RTSLoad 03-05-12.xlsx Department of Innovation, Industry, Science, Research and Tertiary Education Independent analysis of Higher Education Funding approach Research Historic RTS data was used for 2008, 2009 and 2010 and assumed constant for forecasts. IPRS headcount data for 2010 was made available and this was assumed to be the flat rate for all years. IPRS headcount was assumed to equal EFTSL on the assumption visa conditions and scholarships require full-time study commitment. Ernst & Young 16 Ernst & Young Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory About Ernst & Young Ernst & Young is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. Worldwide, our 141,000 people are united by our shared values and an unwavering commitment to quality. We make a difference by helping our people, our clients and our wider communities achieve their potential. 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