Feasibility Analysis By: Professor Wilmer Arellano "Prevention is better than cure" is hardly practiced and it is only when a surprise boils into a crisis that managers react. Hariharan Controller Perstorp Aegis Chemicals Pvt Ltd. Overview Feasibility Definitions Goals Types of Feasibility Feasibility Assessment Risk Goals Will the project be a success? The objective of a feasibility study is: To find out if a project can be done Types of Feasibility Technical Resource Economic Schedule Cultural Legal Marketing Technical Feasibility Does the technology exist? Is it available locally? Can it be obtained? Are fundamentally new inventions required? How much Technical Risk is there? Resource Feasibility Do we have sufficient skills? Do we have sufficient equipment? Do we have sufficient number of people? How much Resource Risk is there? Economic Feasibility Is the project possible, given resource constraints? How much Economic Risk is there? Schedule Feasibility What are the chances of meeting the intermediate mileposts? What are the chances of meeting the PDR (Preliminary Design Review) requirements? What are the chances of meeting the CDR (Critical Design Review) requirements? Feasibility Analysis The PDR is a multi-disciplined technical review to ensure that the system under review can proceed into detailed design, and can meet the stated performance requirements within cost (program budget), schedule (program schedule), risk, and other system constraints. The CDR is a multi-disciplined technical review to ensure that the system under review can proceed into system fabrication, demonstration, and test; and can meet the stated performance requirements within cost (program budget), schedule (program schedule), risk, and other system constraints. http://akss.dau.mil/dag/TOC_GuideBook.asp?sNode= R4-3-3-4-4&Exp=Y Cultural Feasibility Social acceptability? Will there be a positive impact on the local culture. Will there be a positive impact on general culture. Potential labor objections? Manager resistance? Legal Feasibility Organizational conflicts and policies? Laws or regulations impeding the Project? Laws of regulation limiting the project Marketing Feasibility Will the general public accept the product? Feasibility Assessment Do we have sufficient skills? Do we have sufficient equipment? Do we have sufficient a number of people? 5 High 4 2 Attribute Resource Feasibility 3 Med 1 Low Feasibility is Measured Against Attributes Weighted Scale. 1 to 5 scale the different attributes contribute to the total in different proportion. Weight X X X Why? Solution We don't know how to program microcontrollers Take a Crash Course The Lab Does not have a Program Station Buy One Three people in the team Enough Weighted Scale Example Attribute Score This is not a template, use your own attributes Why? Solution Resource Feasibility Do we have sufficient skills? Do we have sufficient equipment? Do we have sufficient a number of people? TOTAL AVERAGE 2.0 3.0 5.0 10.0 3.33 We don't know how to program Take a Crash Course microcontrollers The Lab Does not have a Program Buy One Station Three people in the team Enough Obtaining Weights Technical Resource Economic Schedule Cultural Legal Marketing 1 = equal Technical Resource Economic Schedule Cultural Legal Marketing 1 1/5 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/5 1/5 5 1 1 1/3 1/3 1/5 1/5 3 1 1 1/5 1/5 1/3 1/5 3 3 5 1 1 1 5 3 3 5 1 1 1 1 5 5 3 1 1 1 3 5 5 5 1/5 1 1/3 1 3 = moderate 5 = strong 7 = very strong 9 = extreme Technical Technical Resource Economic Schedule Cultural Legal Marketing 1.00 0.20 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.20 0.20 Resource 5.00 1.00 1 0.33 0.33 0.20 0.20 Economic 3.00 1 1.00 0.20 0.20 0.33 0.20 Schedule Cultural 3.00 3 5 1.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 3.00 3.00 5.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Total G.Mean ( A1 A2 AN ) w G.Mean / total Legal 5.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 1 N Marketing G. Mean 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.20 1.00 0.33 1.00 3.191825 1.722555 1.993235 0.46129 0.580533 0.46129 0.738677 9.149405 w 0.35 0.19 0.22 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.08 Weighted Scale Example Attribute Weight Score W. Score Technical Resource Economic Schedule Cultural Legal Marketing 0.35 0.19 0.22 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.08 1.00 4.0 3.3 3.0 5.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 25.3 1.40 0.63 0.66 0.25 0.18 0.25 0.16 3.53 3.53 TOTAL WEIGHTED AVERAGE Weighted Average W .Score Weight Risk The possibility of suffering loss Risk involves uncertainty and loss: Uncertainty: The degree of certainty about whether the risk will happen. Loss: If the risk becomes a reality, unwanted consequences or losses will occur. Risk Categories Technical Resource Economic Schedule Cultural Legal Marketing Proactive Risk Management “The purpose of risk management is to identify potential problems before they occur so that action can be taken to reduce or eliminate the likelihood and/or impact of these problems should they occur.” Risk Assessment Risk Exposure Matrix Clear and well defined risk acceptance thresholds are required in order to define the level of risk that can be tolerated. The Exposure Matrix can be used to prevent entering into a project You may use a fishbone diagram to discover risks Likelihood of Occurrence Undesirable Outcomes Very Likely Possible Unlikely Class IV Catastrophic Catastrophic Severe Class III Catastrophic Severe Moderate Class II Severe Moderate Low Class I Moderate Low Low Risk Management In ongoing projects, the Exposure Matrix can be used to as a managing tool Class I: Risks that are below the risk acceptance threshold and do not require active management Class II: Risks that lie on the risk acceptance threshold and require active monitoring Class III: Risks that exceed the risk acceptance threshold and require proactive management Class IV: Risks that significantly exceed the risk acceptance threshold and urgent and immediate attention 2. Determine your Risks Fault Tree Analysis 1. Brainstorm Resource Technical T1 New Invention Required R1 Skills to be Acquired M1 Survey Indicated Price Constraint Legal Class Class Class Class IV III II I Likelihood of Occurrence Legend Very Likely Possible Unlikely T1, E2 Catastrophic S2, E1 Severe R1,L1, S1 R2 Moderate T2 M1 Low Actions None Assign Duties For Break Period Designate a Dedicated Person to Solve This Issue Continue Process Senior II Project Not Completed on Time E2 T1 Would Require Extra Funding E1 Funding Required R2,M1, T2 S2 E1 T2 Technology Does Not Exist R2 Team Size L1 Any Laws of Regulation against Project? Undesirabl e Outcomes Marketing S2 Impact of Semester's Break 3. Determine your responses S1 Team Members Procrastination Economic All Considerations Fictitious Use Facts That Apply to You Project Schedule Continuous Risk Management References http://www.cs.toronto.edu/~sme/CSC340F/slides/05feasibility.pdf http://www.cdf.toronto.edu/~csc340h/winter/ Dorofee, A. J., Walker, J. A., Alberts, C. J., Higuera, R. P., Murray, T. J., and Williams, R. J. Continuous Risk Management Guidebook. Pressman, R. S. 1997. Software Engineering: A Practitioner’s Approach. New York, USA: McGraw Hill. Risk analysis and management guidance June 2005, www.riotinto.com Review Definitions Goals Types of feasibility Feasibility Assessment Risk & Questions Answers