Canadian Energy Research Institute
North American Natural Gas
Demand Pathways
Peter Howard
Canadian Energy Research Institute
32nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference
July 28-31, 2013
1
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
Canadian Energy Research Institute
Overview
Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, nonprofit research institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related
environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption
sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic
research in energy and related environmental issues. A central goal of CERI is to bring the
insights of scientific research, economic analysis, and practical experience to the
attention of government policy-makers, business sector decision-makers, the media,
and citizens in Canada and abroad.
Core members of the Institute include the Canadian Government, the Government of
the Province of Alberta, the University of Calgary, the Canadian Association of Petroleum
Producers (CAPP) and the Explorers and Producers Association (EPAC). In-kind support is
also provided by the Energy Resources Conservation Board (ERCB).
All of CERI’s research is publically available on our website at www.ceri.ca
2
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
Current Projects
Global LNG: Now, Never, or Later?
Released January 2013
Potential Economic Impacts of Developing
Quebec’s Shale Gas
Released March 2013
North American Natural Gas Demand
Pathways
To be Released August 2013
3
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways

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
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


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A View from 2006
What Drives WCSB Drilling Today
Overview of the Project
Description of the 4 Narratives
North American Future Demand
North American Future Supply
The Future of Power Generation
LNG in the Pacific Basin
Comparing the 4 Narratives
Questions
4
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
Setting the Stage
2006
2012
5
2030
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Industry
EIA United States view from 2006 looking forward
United States Natural Gas Supply (AEO 2006)
32
2015 Forecast
• LNG Imports 8 bcf/day
• Imports from Canada = 5 bcf/day
• Alaskan Gas 2.5 bcf/day (4.5 bcf/day max)
30
28
26
LNG Imports
24% imports
22
Alaska
20
Canadian Imports
18
16
14
US Dry Lower 48 Production
12
6
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
10
2003
Tcf/yr
24
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Industry
CERI Canadian view from 2006 looking forward
Canadian Supply and Demand for Gas (May 2006)
8
Quebec LNG supply
Mackenzie Valley
Supply
Atlantic LNG
7
Altantic offshore
SK Conventional
5
2015 Forecast (18% of Supply)
• Quebec LNG
• Mackenzie Valley Pipeline
• Canaport LNG (NB)
4
3
BC Conventional
AB NGC (CBM)
AB Conventional
Revised March 2006
2
Total Demand
1
Canadian Domestic
Demand
Oil Sands Demand
7
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
TCF per year
6
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
2006 Gas
Wells
Completed
2008 Gas
Wells
Completed
2010 Gas
Directed
Licences
2012 Gas &
CBM Directed
Licences
Montney
Falher
Duvernay
Cardium
Glauconitic
Notikewin
Viking
Milk River
North American Natural Gas Industry
18000
100.0%
16000
90.0%
14000
80.0%
70.0%
12000
60.0%
10000
50.0%
8000
40.0%
6000
30.0%
4000
20.0%
2000
10.0%
2012 Alberta Gas Well Licenses
• 774 Horizontal Wells (66%)
• 283 Slant/Deviated (23%)
• 127 Vertical (11%)
0.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Completed Horizontal Gas Wells
Total Complete Vertical Gas Wells
Percentage Horizontal Gas Wells
2012 Marcellus
• 2,000 capped gas wells
• 2,100-2,300 new wells per year
• NGL’s 30-35 bbls/mmcf
• 4,5,6 wells per pad
• 90% horizontal
Gas Production (mmcf/day)
0
Percentage Horizontal Wells
Connected Gas Wells
“A Tale of Two Countries”
13
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
17 to 22 Bcf/day
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Marcellus Supply: Full Speed Ahead
Marcellus Supply: Nowhere Fast
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways










A View from 2006
What Drives WCSB Drilling Today
Overview of the Project
Description of the 4 Narratives
North American Future Demand
North American Future Supply
The Future of Power Generation
LNG in the Pacific Basin
Comparing the 4 Narratives
Questions
14
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
Western Canada What Makes the Gas World Work
$/ mcf
BC Montney Supply Cost example
$7.0
$6.5
$6.0
$5.5
$5.0
$4.5
$4.0
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$-
$4.5
$0.8
$4.5
$3.8
$0.7
$-
$3.8
$3.8
$3.9
Liquids Portion
$4.7
$1.3
$3.4
$4.9
$2.0
$3.0
$5.1
$2.6
$2.5
$5.3
$3.2
$2.1
Gas Portion
$5.5
$3.8
$1.7
Revenue
$5.7
$4.3
$1.3
$5.8
$4.9
$1.0
$6.0
$6.2
$6.4
$5.4
$5.8
$6.2
$0.7
$0.4
$0.2
$6.5
$6.5
March 2012 Intra AB NIT Price ($/mcf)
With a Gas Price of $1.87/mcf a well needs a minimum of 60 bbls/mmcf (Liquids) to be economic
a Gas Price of $3.48/mcf a well needs a minimum of 20 bbls/mmcf (Liquids) to be economic
15
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways










A View from 2006
What Drives WCSB Drilling Today
Overview of the Project
Description of the 4 Narratives
North American Future Demand
North American Future Supply
The Future of Power Generation
LNG in the Pacific Basin
Comparing the 4 Narratives
Questions
16
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Overview
Objective:
The project will develop a North American supply perspective and explore future
pathways of natural gas demand within North America. The future will be detailed as four
narratives that explore the future of the of the natural gas industry and detail the
relationship of supply/demand, exports/imports and market pricing.
Key Question:
“Looking out to 2030, in the face of robust supply, how will industry, government and
others work together to understand and grow the demand for natural gas and improve
the competitiveness of the Canadian Natural Gas Industry?“
The Players:
Canadian Energy Research Institute
ICF International (Fairfax)
whatIf? Technologies (Ottawa)
Scenarios to Strategy (Calgary)
17
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Driving Forces
Residential &
Commercial
Demand
LNG Exports
Power
Access to From North Generation
America
Capital
Demand
North American
Economy
Transportation
Demand
North American
Natural Gas
Industry
Social
Licence
Environmental
Concerns &
Management
Geopolitics
Oil Market
Dynamics
Demographics
& Labour
Industrial
Demand Government
Policy &
Regulation
18
Gas
Supply
Pipelines &
Infrastructure
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Narratives
Power
Wave
LNG Exports from North America
Power Generation
Low
Demand
High Growth
Nowhere
Fast
Full Speed
Ahead
High
LNG
Tsunami
Low Growth
19
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways










A View from 2006
What Drives WCSB Drilling Today
Overview of the Project
Description of the 4 Narratives
North American Future Demand
North American Future Supply
The Future of Power Generation
LNG in the Pacific Basin
Comparing the 4 Narratives
Questions
20
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Narrative Characteristics
Power Wave
High Power Gen. Demand & Low LNG Exports
Global competition and regulatory uncertainties close the window
on LNG exports while pragmatic polices and a responsive market allow
gas to penetrate power markets
• Intense global competition for LNG markets in Asia & Europe with shift away from oil price
related contracts
• Regulatory delays in North America means that LNG misses the window
• Gradual revival in North American economy increases demand for power and gas gains
market share
• Pragmatic fracking policy & societal expectations to cut carbon support natural gas
• Market efficient: supply responsive to price allowing supply-demand balance at modest
prices
• Medium-term wave of small and large natural gas power facilities
• Low cost power supports industrial expansion – regional differences persist in natural gas
markets
21
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Narrative Characteristics
Full Speed Ahead
High Power Gen. Demand & High LNG Exports
Carbon policy drives expanded LNG exports and an expanded
role for gas in power generation – demand fires on all cylinders
•
•
•
•
•
Strong global economy & high oil prices fuel Asian LNG demand
Weather-related events attributed to climate change
Environmental concerns drive carbon policy in North America & globally
Collaboration helps industry engage stakeholders & weather near-term challenges
Carbon policy drives expanded role for gas in power generation within North America &
globally - supports LNG exports from North America
• North American industrial and transportation demand growth
• North American gas markets are balanced, efficient and profitable and environment is
improved
22
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Narrative Characteristics
Nowhere Fast
Low Power Gen. Demand & Low LNG Exports
A weak economy and stakeholder gridlock stymie LNG export
opportunities and any significant demand growth for gas
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Global economy falls sharply
Rising geopolitical tensions and protectionism stymie trade
Low oil prices close the door to LNG exports from North America
Canadian commodities and energy hit hard by downturn
Rising stakeholder tensions stymie development
Political and regulatory gridlock
No new demand in LNG, power generation, industrial or transportation
Industry under siege hunkers down – a survivors game
"New normal" of low economic growth and flat energy outcomes
Global & North American markets more local and less integrated
23
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Narrative Characteristics
LNG Tsunami
Low Power Gen. Demand & High LNG Exports
A surge of investment drives LNG exports as politics and rising
prices undermine the competitiveness of gas in power generation
• Global growth in LNG supports high prices & oil-linked contracts
• Aggressive development of LNG projects in North America: no regulatory or financial
restrictions
• Integration of markets lead to convergence of North American & global prices
• Economic growth greater than electricity growth as efficiencies decouple economic and
electricity growth
• Rising natural gas prices linked to LNG markets undermines natural gas in power
generation
• Coal lobby influential in extracting concessions – trade-off for support of coal is increased
support of renewables – reduced opportunity for gas in North America
• Advances in power storage enhance value of renewable energy
24
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways










A View from 2006
What Drives WCSB Drilling Today
Overview of the Project
Description of the 4 Narratives
North American Future Demand
North American Future Supply
The Future of Power Generation
LNG in the Pacific Basin
Comparing the 4 Narratives
Questions
25
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Lower-48 Gas Demand Disposition
•
•
•
The Nowhere Fast case shows
declining disposition over
time.
The Full Speed Ahead case
has an aggressive disposition
growth from 27 Tcf today to
41 Tcf by 2030.
Power Wave and LNG
Tsunami are in between the
two extremes.
–
–
Different composition of
disposition.
About the same level of
disposition by 2030, with
slightly greater growth in
LNG Tsunami.
Source: CERI,ICF International
26
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Canadian Gas Demand Disposition
•
•
Canada gas demand disposition
tells the same story as in the US.
Full Speed Ahead growth comes
from a combination of power
growth and LNG exports
growth.
–
–
–
Less potential for power to
grow compared to LNG
exports.
Change of Canadian disposition
is not as aggressive as in the
US.
Declining pipeline exports to
the US due to growing
domestic demand as well as
LNG exports.
Source: CERI,ICF International
27
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways










A View from 2006
What Drives WCSB Drilling Today
Overview of the Project
Description of the 4 Narratives
North American Future Demand
North American Future Supply
The Future of Power Generation
LNG in the Pacific Basin
Comparing the 4 Narratives
Questions
28
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
The Marcellus Story: Changing resource development parameters
• 2007 production 0.1 bcf/day, 75 new gas well completions
• 2011 production 4.0 bcf/day, 1,891 new gas well completions
• Drilling will hold at 1,800 wells per year (2012-2014)
• Approximately 2,000 capped wells will be tied in over the next 2-3 years
• Drilling will grow to 2,100-2,300 wells per year (2015-2035)
• 4,5,6 wells per pad
• 90% horizontal wells
• EUR’s increasing to 4-5 bcf/well
• Higher than expected IP rates
• Decline curve showing a higher sustaining level
• NGL recoveries of 30-35 bbls/mmcf
29
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
US Gas Supply by Region: Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic
24,000
5 bcf/day swing
between Narratives
22,000
20,000
Gas Production (mmcf/day)
18,000
16,000
14,000
15 bcf/day Growth
Potential
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Marcellus Supply: Full Speed Ahead
30
Marcellus Supply: Nowhere Fast
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways










A View from 2006
What Drives WCSB Drilling Today
Overview of the Project
Description of the 4 Narratives
North American Future Demand
North American Future Supply
The Future of Power Generation
LNG in the Pacific Basin
Comparing the 4 Narratives
Questions
31
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Base Case Power Generation: 2011 Statistics
Other Gases
Petroleum
Wood
Geothermal
Biomass
Solar
Wind
Natural Gas
Hydro
Coal
Nuclear
Total Generation (MW)
Generation Capacity (MW)
United States
0.3%
0.17%
0.91%
0.40%
0.48%
0.04%
2.93%
24.9%
7.9%
42.5%
19.4%
Canada
0.8%
*
*
1.8% *
1.8%
8.4%
59.4%
12.7%
15.1%
465,000
68,400
1,047,000
135,000
*Geothermal, biomass and solar are combined in Canadian Statistics.
32
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Base Case US Coal Power Generation Capacity (On Stream Years)
100%
100,000
87% of the Plants are 25 Years of age or older
Winter capacity (MW)
90,000
90%
80,000
80%
70,000
70%
On Stream Age Group
60%
60,000
Cumulative Age Group
50,000
50%
40,000
40%
30,000
30%
20,000
20%
10,000
10%
0%
0
0-5
Years
5-10
Years
10-15
Years
15-20
Years
20-25
Years
25-30
Years
30-35
Years
35-40
Years
40-45
Years
45-50
Years
50+
years
312 Gigawatts of operational coal fired power generation capacity (as of YE 2010)
33
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Base Case US Power Generation (Additions and Retirements) 2011+
Power Generation Additions and Retirements (MW of Capacity)
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
Coal
Coal
Coal &
Coke
Coal &
Coke
Solar
Solar
34
Nuclear
Nuclear
Natural
Gas
Natural
Gas
Wind
Wind
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Base Case: US Power Generation
United States
700,000
700,000
600,000
600,000
Additional Natural Gas
Nuclear
Coal
500,000
Hydro
Natural Gas
400,000
400,000
Wind
Solar
Biomass
300,000
300,000
Geothermal
Wood
Petroleum
200,000
200,000
Pumped Storage
Other Gases
100,000
100,000
0
Other
EIA AEO2012 Table A8
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Generation By Type (MW)
500,000
35
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Base Case: US Power Generation by Narrative
Natural Gas Requirements for Power Generation
(mmcf/day)
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
LNG Tsunami
Nowhere Fast
Power Wave
36
Full Speed Ahead
Historical Data
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways










A View from 2006
What Drives WCSB Drilling Today
Overview of the Project
Description of the 4 Narratives
North American Future Demand
North American Future Supply
The Future of Power Generation
LNG in the Pacific Basin
Comparing the 4 Narratives
Questions
37
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Australia's Supply Growth
bcfpd
Mt
Operating
120
Under construction
Another 7 projects
in the feasibility
stage - an
additional 40 Mt or
4.6 bcfpd
Planned
100
Ichthys
80
9 Mt
1.2 bcfpd
60
20
Darwin
North
West
Shelf
1989
16 Mt
2.1 bcfpd
3.7 Mt
0.5 bcfpd
Pluto
4.3 Mt
0.6 bcfpd
14
12
8.4 Mt
1.1 bcfpd
10
8
3.6 Mt
0.5 bcfpd
Gladstone
Gorgon
40
0
Wheatstone 8.9 Mt
1.2 bcfpd
APLNG
Prelude
7.8 Mt
1.0 bcfpd
16
Fisherman's
landing
Tassie shoal
Sunrise
Scarborough
Gorgon exp.
Browse
Arrow
6
15 Mt
2.0 bcfpd
QCLNG
4
8.5 Mt
1.1 bcfpd
2
0
2006
2012
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018+
Source: Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics
38
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Reference Case: LNG Export Potential to the Pacific Basin
50
45
40
35
Other supply sources
30
United States Potential Liquefaction
BCFPD
United States Liquefaction
Canada Liquefaction
25
East Africa Potential Liquefaction
Australian Liquefaction
20
Middle East Liquefaction
Asian LNG Demand
15
10
5
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
39
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways











A View from 2006
What Drives WCSB Drilling Today
Overview of the Project
Description of the 4 Narratives
North American Future Demand
North American Future Supply
The Future of Power Generation
LNG in the Pacific Basin
The LNG Tsunami Story
Comparing the 4 Narratives
Questions
40
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
US and Canada Gas Production
•
•
•
Deep recession in Nowhere Fast
results in lowest gas production
levels over time.
Full Speed Ahead exhibits
aggressive growth in gas
production.
Canada gas production that has
been declining reverses its trend
and grows in the future as a
result of unconventional gas
development.
–
But, the level of growth is very
sensitive to future market
environment – very modest
growth in Nowhere Fast and
robust growth in Full Speed
Ahead.
Source: CERI,ICF International
41
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Lower-48 LNG Exports
•
Robust LNG exports in the
LNG Tsunami case.
–
–
•
•
Lower-48 LNG exports peak
at 10 Bcf/d in 2023.
Declining trend after 2025
represents competition with
supplies from other
countries.
Full Speed Ahead reaches the
same level of LNG exports as
in LNG Tsunami, but at slower
pace.
LNG exports are not a notable
factor in the other cases.
Source: CERI,ICF International
42
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Canada LNG Exports
•
•
•
Canada LNG exports
consistent with US exports,
but at half the volume.
In LNG Tsunami and Full
Speed Ahead, Canada LNG
exports reach 5 Bcf/d, but the
pace of growth differs.
In this study, Canada LNG
export terminals are located
near the Port of Kitimat in
British Columbia.
Source: CERI,ICF International
43
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Canada Pipeline Net Exports
•
Perhaps surprisingly,
Nowhere Fast shows the
highest exports of gas from
Canada to the US.
–
•
•
Gas has little option but to
flow to US markets even
though the gas prices are
not very attractive for the
gas.
In Nowhere Fast and Power
Wave, Canada continues to
be a net exporter to the US.
In LNG Tsunami and Full
Speed Ahead, the net
pipeline exports to the US
decline significantly, mostly
because western Canada gas
is exported to Asia as LNG.
–
Canada becomes a net
importer of pipeline gas in
2021 in LNG Tsunami and in
2026 in Full Speed Ahead.
Source: CERI,ICF International
44
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Henry Hub Gas Prices
•
•
•
•
The weak economy in
Nowhere Fast extends
currently depressed gas prices
into the future.
In Power Wave, Henry Hub
price remains in the
$4/MMBTU ballpark, as a
sluggish economy and lack of
LNG exports hinders
development of gas markets.
Gas prices “cycle” in LNG
Tsunami, riding the wave of
LNG exports.
In Full Speed Ahead, gas prices
“bounce back” strongly,
buoyed by robust economic
activity.
Source: CERI,ICF International
45
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways
Summary:
What Does this Mean for Canada?
46
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Provincial Production Forecast by Narrative
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
Power Wave
NoWhere Fast
LNG Tsunami
Full Speed Ahead
Historical
6,000
4,000
2,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Power Wave
NoWhere Fast
LNG Tsunami
Full Speed Ahead
Historical
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
47
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0
2008
Production varies from a
low of 2 Bcf/day to a high
of 9 Bcf/day
10,000
2005
•
Marketable Gas Production (mmcf/day)
British Columbia:
2006
0
2007
Production varies from a
low of 8 Bcf/day to a high
of 12 Bcf/day
16,000
2005
•
18,000
2006
Alberta:
Marketable Gas Production (mmcf/day)
20,000
Relevant • Independent • Objective
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North American Natural Gas Demand Pathways
Selected Export Pipeline Flow Forecast
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
3,500
3,000
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
48
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
2007
LNG Tsunami and Full
Speed Ahead display the
most impact on border
flows
4,000
2006
•
Power Wave
NoWhere Fast
LNG Tsunami
Full Speed Ahead
Historical
4,500
2005
Northern Border:
Marketable Gas Production (mmcf/day)
5,000
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
2007
LNG Tsunami and Full
Speed Ahead display the
most impact on border
flows
8,000
2005
•
Power Wave
NoWhere Fast
LNG Tsunami
Full Speed Ahead
Historical
9,000
2006
TCPL Mainline (SK Border):
Marketable Gas Production (mmcf/day)
10,000
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca
CERI North American Natural Gas Pathways
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A View from 2006
What Drives WCSB Drilling Today
Overview of the Project
Description of the 4 Narratives
North American Future Demand
North American Future Supply
The Future of Power Generation
LNG in the Pacific Basin
The LNG Tsunami Story
Comparing the 4 Narratives
Questions
49
Relevant • Independent • Objective
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Canadian Energy Research Institute
Thank you for your time
Please visit us at
www.ceri.ca
50
Relevant • Independent • Objective
www.ceri.ca