Population problems and solutions –
Specific examples
1
I.
Purpose of using these specific examples in this module
1.
This module aims at enabling students:
to identify the causes and characteristics of the major population problems, including
overpopulation, under-population and ageing population.
2.
to understand the measures adopted by different countries in dealing with the problems.
II. Curriculum tailoring for students of different abilities
1. For the more able students, teachers can consider asking them to conduct a more in-depth
study of the population problems in one of the specific examples. Alternatively, they can
conduct a comparison study of the population policy of China with that of another country.
2.
For the brightest students, teachers can further extend the study, pending the availability of
time and the interest of their students, to examine population movement in China or in a
Western European country like Germany.
III. How to make use of the information provided in this folder?
1. A brief overview of the world population and data of specific examples have been provided as
a general introduction to this topic.
2.
Each specific example includes a description of the population problems faced by specific
country and measures adopted to tackle the problem.
3.
Teachers need not cover all the information provided in this folder. Instead it is advisable for
them to select appropriate example(s) and refine the materials based on the ability and interest
of their students.
4.
Teachers can make use of the materials as:

Background information for students to understand the kinds of population problems and
how those problems are being tackled by different countries;

Information for comparing the population policy of China with that of another country;

Information for examining population movement in a Western European country like
Germany;

Materials for self-study.
2
The world population has reached 7.3 billion in 2014. Ever since the Industrial Revolution, the
world population has increased rapidly. The world population reached one billion in around 1800. It
took only another 130 years to reach the second billion in 1930. It grew faster in later years,
reaching the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974) and the
fifth billion in only 13 years (1987). It reached 7.3 billion in October 2015.
Figure 1 World Total Population: 1950-2050
Source:
US Census Bureau, International Data Base, June 2012 Update.
Population in the world is currently growing at a rate of around 1.14% annually. Annual
growth rate has reached its peak in 1963 which was about 2.19%. Recently, the annual growth rate
was declining and was projected to decline in the coming years. In 2010, it was estimated that the
growth rate will become less than 1% by 2020 and less than 0.5% by 2050.
3
Figure 2 World population growth rate 1950-2010
Table 1 The top ten largest countries by population (live) as at 14 October 2015.
Rank
Name of country
No. of population
(in millions)
Percentage of world population
1
China
1404
19.1
2
India
1287
17.5
3
USA
326
4.4
4
Indonesia
257
3.5
5
Brazil
204
2.8
6
Pakistan
189
2.6
7
Nigeria
185
2.5
8
Bangladesh
161
2.2
9
Russia
142
1.9
10
Japan
127
1.7
Reference:
You can browse the following website to know the current world population.
World meters – real-time world statistics
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#total
4
Table 2 Total population (in million) of various countries of the specific examples between 1960
and 2013
Country
Year
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013
China
651
716
820
917
985
1058
1148
1216
1263
1298
1330
1350
Germany
72.5
75.6
77.8
78.7
78.3
77.7
79.4
81.7
82.2
82.4
81.6
81.1
India
445
495
554
619
685
760
838
921
1006
1091
1173
1221
Japan
94
99
104
112
117
121
124
125
127
128
128
127
Nigeria
42
48
56
64
75
85
97
110
124
142
162
175
Source:
United States Census Bureau, the World Bank
Table 3 Crude birth rate (per 1000 population) of countries included in the specific examples
between 1960 and 2013
Country
Year
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013
China
40
38
31
22
18
21
21
17
13
12
12
12
Germany
18
16
11
10
11
11
11
9
9
8
8
8
India
41
40
37
36
35
34
31
28
26
23
21
20
Japan*
17
19
19
17
14
12
10
10
10
9
9
8
Nigeria
49
49
49
49
48
46
45
44
44
42
40
39
Source:
United States Census Bureau, the World Bank; *Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan;
UN data (numbers in bold and italic)
Table 4 Crude death rate (per 1000 population) of countries included in the specific examples
between 1960 and 2013
Country
Year
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013
China
21
11
8
7
6
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
Germany
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
10
10
11
11
India
24
21
18
15
12
11
11
10
9
8
8
7
Japan*
8
7
7
6
6
6
7
7
8
9
10
9
Nigeria
21
21
20
20
20
19
19
19
18
16
14
13
Source:
United States Census Bureau, the World Bank; *Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan;
UN data (numbers in bold and italic)
5
Table 5 Life expectancy at birth of countries included in the specific examples between 1960 and
2013
Country
Year
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2013
China
44
59
65
66
67
68
68
69
71
74
75
75
Germany
70
71
71
72
73
74
75
76
78
79
80
80
India
43
47
51
54
55
57
58
60
62
65
66
67
Japan
69
71
73
75
76
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
Nigeria
43
44
44
44
45
45
45
45
45
49
51
52
Source:
United States Census Bureau, the World Bank; UN data (numbers in bold and italic)
References:
1. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan
http://www.mhlw.go.jp/english
2. The World Bank – data
http://data.worldbank.org
3. United States Census Bureau - International data base
http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php
4. UN Data
http://data.un.org
5. Video on “Population Problems in India” – duration: 9:01”
http://cncworld.tv/news/v_show/16483_Population_problem_in_India.shtml
6
I.
Aging population in Japan
Japan’s total population in 2014 was 127 million. This ranked tenth in the world and made up
1.8% of the world’s total. Japan’s population increased rapidly after the Meiji Restoration in 1868
but has been decreasing sharply from 1960s. Table 6 shows the birth rates, death rates and natural
increase rates in Japan from 1950 to 2013. The natural increase rate has been decreasing sharply
from 1980 and the country experienced a negative growth rate from 2005. It was because the birth
rate was lower than the death rate. Fewer babies were born in these few years. In addition, there was
a strict immigration law which limited the incoming of immigrants. If these conditions do not
change, the population projection will expect a negative population growth up to 2050. So the
population is shrinking in Japan.
Table 6 Birth rates, death rates and natural increase rates in Japan
Year
Rates per 1000 population
Live births
Deaths
Natural increase
1950
28.1
10.9
17.2
1955
19.4
7.8
11.6
1960
17.2
7.6
9.6
1965
18.6
7.1
11.4
1970
18.8
6.9
11.8
1975
17.1
6.3
10.8
1980
13.6
6.2
7.3
1985
11.9
6.3
5.6
1990
10.0
6.7
3.3
1995
9.6
7.4
2.1
2000
9.5
7.7
1.8
2005
8.4
8.6
-0.2
2010
8.5
9.5
-1.0
2013
8.2
10.1
-1.9
Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan
Besides, the proportion of elderly was increasing in recent years. Table 7 shows the percentage
of population in different age groups in Japan. It can be seen that aged population (65 years and
over) constituted 25.9% of the total population in 2014 which was the highest in the world.
7
Table 7 Percentage of population in different age groups in Japan
Age group
Year
1950
2014
2050 (Projection)
0-14
35.4
12.8
9.7
15-64
59.6
61.3
51.5
65 and over
4.9
25.9
38.8
Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare,
Japan
The growth of aged population in Japan was faster than that of many western European
countries or the USA. In 1970, aged population in Japan was only 7.1% and it took 24 years to
double to 14.1% in 1994. Comparing with other countries, it took Germany 40 years, the United
Kingdom 47 years and Italy 61 years for the percentage of the elderly to double from 7 to 14%. The
reason why Japan was aging faster than other countries was because the life expectancy of the
population in Japan was much longer than that of other countries. Table 8 shows the life expectancy
of both male and female in Japan. In 1950, the life expectancy in Japan was 59.57 for males and
62.97 for females. In 1970, the figures increased to 69.31 for males and 74.66 for females. On the
other hand, for this same period in Germany, the average life expectancy for males and female
increased only 3.5 years of age, in France it was 5.9 years of age, in the US it was 2.8 years of age
and in the UK it was only 2.3 years of age.
Table 8 Life expectancy of male and female at birth in Japan from 1950 to 2013
Year
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Males
Females
1950
59.57
62.97
1955
63.60
67.75
1960
65.32
70.19
1965
67.74
72.92
1970
69.31
74.66
1975
71.73
76.89
1980
73.35
78.76
1985
74.78
80.48
1990
75.92
81.90
1995
76.38
82.85
2000
77.72
84.60
2005
78.56
85.52
2010
79.55
86.30
2013
80.21
86.61
Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare,
Japan
8
After the Second World War, Japan experienced the postwar “economic miracle”. Rapid
economic growth raised personal incomes, enabling people to have better living standards and diets.
Economic prosperity also supported better medical services. Therefore, people could live longer
than in the past. However, the birth rates kept on decreasing because people got married at a later
age as more women started to work and became economically independent. There was also a
powerful and deep-rooted practice of birth control which cannot be changed suddenly. Families also
tended to have fewer children as the cost of raising a child increased. Therefore, fewer new-born
babies have to support an increasing number of aged people. Many problems associated with aging
population has arisen.
II. Problems associated with aging population in Japan



Increase in aging population and decrease in birth rates implies a decrease in the number of
workforce. It has been projected that the national workforce of people from the ages of 15-65
will shrink to half of the total population between 2012 and 2060. So fewer people can be
engaged in production.
As Japan has a well-established pension system, an increasing number of the aged would mean
more people getting the pensions after their retirement. With a decreasing working population
in recent years mentioned in the previous paragraph, the amount of contribution to the pension
system is likely to be shrunk, unable to meeting the increasing draw-out by the rising number
of elderly people. This will leave a big burden to the society in the future.
An increasing number of elderly people also imply an increasing demand for medical and
social services. This increasing demand creates a heavy financial burden on the government.
9
III.
Solutions to ageing problem in Japan
1. Reforming the pension system
Japan is famous for its well-established public pension
system for the elderly. People retired usually got a lot of
benefits. However, this system put a heavy financial burden to
the government if the dependency ratio1 of the elderly is too
high. Reform to this pension system has already been
introduced by the Japanese Government:
 The rights to access to a pension have been postponed from
60 to 65 years of age.
 Personal contribution to the pension system will be raised
from 15% of the salary in 2009 to 30% in 2018.
 In 2009, the Treasury’s contribution to the basic pension has
been cut by half.
 The benefits given to the elderly have been diminished. For
example, starting from 2006, Japanese who are 70 and above
and have a yearly income over ￥ 5.2 million have to
personally pay for 30% of their medical costs instead of the
previous 20%.
 Workers are encouraged to subscribe to private pension plans
instead of relying on the public system alone.
1
Dependency ratio is the ratio between the dependent population, ie. people under the age of 15 and over 64 to the
working population. High dependency ratio means that fewer working population has to support the elder population.
10
2. Increasing labour supply
 This can be done by importing labour from foreign countries.
There is especially a need to fill in the lower-paid and manual jobs,
mostly in the manufacturing industry. A move in that direction was
the release of the Immigration Control Law in the early 1990s
which enabled many South Americans to move into Japan. In
addition, Japanese companies have also started recruiting
international students from both foreign and Japanese universities.
However the infusion of immigrants into the Japanese society was
difficult owing to the strong rejection of foreigners deep-rooted in
the Japanese culture. So cultural and perception changes are
necessary for the country to attract more new immigrants.
 In order to increase labour force, policies should be made to
promote and encourage more women to enter the labour force,
including reducing discrimination and inequality against female
workers in accessing permanent jobs and stable salaries. More help
should also be given to working mothers so that their children can
be taken care of.
 Extension of the age of retirement is another possible way of
increasing labour force. In fact, the Japanese Government has
already extended the retirement age from 60 to 65 so that existing
workers can work longer. The participation rate for men aged
60-64 has been increased from 71% in 2006 to 77% in 2009.
3. Use of technology
Being an advanced country in technology, Japan has started to
introduce the use of robots to substitute man labour. In 2005, there
were over 370,000 robots working in factories across Japan. This
accounts for about 40% of the global total. There are 32 robots for
every 1000 Japanese manufacturing employees. There are also
projects to explore the possibility of using robot to look after the
elderly.
11
References:
1.
Matsutani Akihiko. (2006) Shrinking – Population Economics – Lessons from Japan.
International House of Japan: Japan.
2.
Immigration to Japan as a solution to the ageing of the population
https://iepweb.sciencespo-rennes.fr/bibli_doc/download/265
3.
Japan: Aging population needs more than short-term solutions
http://www.ipsnews.net/2009/12/japan-aging-population-needs-more-than-short-term-solutions
4.
Japan looks to new technology to cater ageing population
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/hapan-looks-to-new/731982.html
5.
Japan’s population problem
http://www.forbes.com/2010/06/14/japan-population-ageing-business-oxford-analytical.html
6.
Japan’s population suffers biggest fall in history
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/9999591/Japans-popuulation-suffersbiggest-fall-in-history.html
7.
Population - Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau, DirectorGeneral for Policy Planning (Statistical standards) and statistical research and training institute
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c0117.htm#c02
8.
Working paper series – Population aging: facts, challenges and responses, Program on the
global demography of aging
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2011/PGDA_WP_71.pdf
12
I.
Overpopulation in India
By January 2015, the total population of India was 1.3 billion, an increase of 1.34% per year.
India homes 17.5% of the world population but it occupies only 2.4% of the world’s land area. It is
estimated that by 2025, India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation with a
population of 1.4 billion.
Before the independence of the country in 1947, India’s population growth was mainly
checked by famines and diseases. The death rate was high. So the population growth was not too
rapid even though the birth rate was high. However, after its independence, India experienced
significant improvement in medical services and the hygienic environment, with the major diseases
came under control. Its death rate decreased and reached a low level by the 70s. On the other hand,
the birth rate remained high, mainly due to cultural factor. Most of the Indians have a strong desire
to have a son in the family. Married couples will continue to have children until they give birth to a
son. In addition, many Indian girls got marry at an early age. In 2011, 43% of adolescent girls in
India were married before the age of 18. This was because many families wanted to save the money
in raising daughters. Moreover, although birth control had been introduced in India as early as in the
1950s, many people, especially those living in the rural areas, didn’t get access to the methods.
Therefore, population was growing at a high rate. The following table shows the crude birth and
death rate and the natural increase rate of India from 1960 to 2013.
Table 9 Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase rate of India between 1960 and 2013
*per 1000 population
Source: UN data & United States Census Bureau, the World Bank
Year
Crude birth rate*
Crude death rate*
Natural increase rate*
1960
41
24
17
1965
40
21
19
1970
37
18
19
1975
36
15
21
1980
35
12
23
1985
34
11
23
1990
31
11
20
1995
28
10
18
2000
26
9
17
2005
23
8
15
2010
21
8
13
2013
20
7
13
13
II. Problems associated with overpopulation in India
Overpopulation has caused several problems in India:
1. Competition for resources
As the amount of resources is rather limited, overpopulation means that resources are
shared by more people. Problems resulting from this include:


People need to struggle for clean water and food. According to an estimation done in 2013,
about 53% of Indian population below the age of 5 was malnourished and 37% had no
access to safe drinking water. Malnutrition made children prone to illness and retarded their
physical and intellectual growth.
People needed to live in a crowded and poor environment. Slums were common in big

cities where people tried to live near to city centre to find jobs.
There are insufficient medical and social services to satisfy the demand of the people.
2.
Environmental problems
Too many people created much waste. The present infrastructure may not be able to handle
such huge amount of waste. This caused many hygienic problems and diseases. Health of the
people was affected.
3.
Economic problems
The economy of the country was affected in the following ways:

If population growth rate is faster than the economic growth rate, some people may not be
able to find jobs. Therefore unemployment was common.
Increasing population meant that there was a need to provide more social and medical
services. This put a heavy economic burden onto the government. Tax has to be raised in
order to cover this increasing amount of expenses. Therefore, more taxpayers may suffer
from this.

14
Video on “Population Problems in India” – duration: 9:01”
http://cncworld.tv/news/v_show/16483_Population_problem_in_India.shtml
III. Solutions to the problem
1.
Family planning and birth control
Ever since the 1950s when the Indian government expected an increasing population,
the First Five-Year Plan of the country has put forward a programme for ‘family limitation
and population control’ which made it the first country to promote family planning and birth
control. However, it was unsuccessful in the early years because of the traditional belief of
the Indian and the availability of the contraceptive measures. Nowadays, family planning is
promoted by:
 Providing incentives to encourage contraception. These incentives include both
community and cash incentives. Community incentives are to give priority to the
construction of roads, schools and drinking water facilities for the community if birth
control target can be met. Cash incentives are given to the individuals who have been
sterilized.
 Providing quality and readily available contraceptive information to women, especially
those living in rural parts of India.
2.
Education

Education can help to change the mind-set of the general public that a son is better than
a daughter. So people may not give a lot of birth until they got a son. However, since
such culture is so deep-rooted in people’s mind, it is difficult to change it in a short
period of time.
15
3.
Laws and legislation

It has been proposed that there should be strict laws to abolish child marriages which will
promote women to have babies at a very early age.
In addition, there are also proposals to introduce laws against the dowries system 2 and
supportive laws for women to inherit properties are needed so that the strong
son-preference of Indian parents can be corrected.
However, all these laws have not yet been drafted.


2
It is a system for the bride’s family to bring money or property to her husband at marriage. In India, if the bride can
only afford a small amount of dowry, the whole family will feel ashamed.
References:
1. Dyson Tim, Cassen Robert and Visaria Leela (Eds.) (2004). Twenty first century India:
Population, Economy, Human Development and the Environment. India: Oxford University
Press.
2. Gender Empowerment is Key to India’s Overpopulation Challenge
http://mistoverthehimalayas.wordpress.com/2011/11/16/gender-empowerment-is-key-to-indiasoverpopulation-challenge
3. India Population
http://countrymeters.info/en/India
4. India population: Is sterilization the answer?
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/india/100713/population-growth-sterilization-millenniumdevelopment-goals?page=0,0
5. Overpopulation could be people, planet problem
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/TECH/Science/09/25/overpopulation.overview
16
6. Overpopulation of India
http://www.kdehart.com/writings/overpopulation.htm
7. Overpopulation: The main cause of poverty in India?
http://www.chakreview.com/social-issues/Overpopulaion-the-main-cause-of-poverty-in-India
8. Short notes on the problem of over population in India
http://www.preservearticles.com/201105247038/short-notes-on-the-problem-of-over-population
-in-india
9. The Wall Street Journal - India Journal: Overpopulation? I’ll buy that
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2011/10/07/india-journal-overpopulation-i%E2%80%99llbuy-that
10. World Population Awareness – Population Dynamics of India
http://www.overpopulaiton.org/India.html
17
I.
Germany – a country experiencing a negative population growth
The population in Germany in 2015 was around 82.5 million. She was the 16th most populous
country in the world and was also the largest country in the European Union. However, its birth rate
is one of the lowest in the world, staying at 8 per thousand since 2005. It is predicted that her
population will continue to decrease in the years to come. Between 2000 and 2013, Germany’s birth
rate has dropped by 11% compared to an increase of 4.3% in the UK, 3.6% in France, 12.8% in
Spain and 8.9% in Ireland. In addition, in every year since 1970, the death rate of Germany has
been greater than her birth rate. This situation will continue as the large birth cohorts in the past will
move into old age. The population of Germany, as a result, is dropping. It is predicted that her
population will fall by 19% to 66 million by 2060.
Table 10 Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase rate of Germany from 1960 - 2013
Year
Crude birth rate*
Crude death rate*
Natural increase rate*
1960
18
12
6
1965
16
12
4
1970
11
12
-1
1975
10
12
-2
1980
11
12
-1
1985
11
12
-1
1990
11
12
-1
1995
9
11
-2
2000
9
10
-1
2005
8
10
-2
2010
8
11
-3
2013
8
11
-3
*per 1000 population
Source: UN data & United States Census Bureau, the World Bank
The crude birth rate remained low because of women’s easier access to education. More
women worked in the labour market and they had little time to take care of their children. There
were not enough facilities provided for working mothers to look after their children, such as day
care and after-school programs. In addition, the birth rate is expected to be even lower due to the
country’s high unemployment rates and dim employment prospects in recent years.
18
The government has tried to encourage more baby birth by granting “parents’ allowance” which
was about 65% of their salary per month up to 14 months after the birth of the baby. In addition, the
government guaranteed every child over the age of one a childcare place. However, these measures
are not effective in changing the mind-set of people to have more babies.
II.
Immigration in Germany
A declining population means that there is less labour force to work in production.
This may hinder the economic development of a country. In order to fill up the gap of
the declining population, immigration can be a way to solve the problem. In 2013,
among the 27 European Union States, Germany has the highest percentage of
immigrants in its population. About 12% of the German population living in Germany
was born outside Germany. Most immigrants came from other European countries,
particularly from Turkey, Russia, Poland and Italy.
Ever since 1950s, Germany has tried to encourage immigrants to enter the country
as “guest workers”. This was because the post-war economic boom has created many
jobs in the industrial sector. Therefore, immigrants were attracted to work in factories
by giving cash bonuses and welcome gift. In the early years, there were also immigrants
for the reason of asylum seeking and reunification. However, after the Oil Crisis in
1973, the demand for foreign workers decreased. So there was a strict control over
immigration the year after.
In 2005, the new Immigration Law was enforced which attracted medium-skilled
and highly-skilled labour into Germany because there was an increasing demand for
workers due to the shrinking population. The details of the Law are as follows:


It allowed highly qualified non-EU workers such as scientists or top-level
managers to obtain a residence permit of unlimited duration.
Companies could hire non-EU workers if there were no Germans available for
the job.
19


Immigration of those who planned to establish a business was welcomed. They
were required to invest at least a million euros in their project and added at
least 10 new jobs.
Foreign students were allowed to stay in Germany for a year after finishing
their studies to look for a job.
The new Immigration Law seemed to be quite effective in increasing the number of
workforce. One million people have been relocated to Germany in 2012. Among these
immigrants, over 80% came from countries like Poland, Romania, Greece, Spain and
Italy. 43% of them were between the ages of 15 and 65 with a master certification,
university degree or a degree from a technical school. In contrast, only 26% of German
born citizens had comparable qualifications. Although foreigners were attracted, they
may not stay long if the economy of their mother country became better. Therefore, the
German government proposed the following policies to help the new migrants integrate
into the society so that they will make Germany their permanent home:




Set up language courses for new migrants
Help people get their qualifications recognized
Recruit foreigners to study at Germany universities and help them to find jobs
Promote integration between immigrants and local residents.
References:
1.
Facts about Germany: Immigration and integration
http://www.tatsachen-ueber-deutschland.de/en/society/main-content-08/immigration-andintegration.html
2.
Germany’s birthrate is the lowest in Europe – and falling fast
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/sep/21/germany-birthrate-low-falling
20
3.
Germany fights population drop
http://ww.nytimes.com/2013/08/14/world/europe/germany-fights-population-drop.html?_r=0
4.
Germany learning to open arms to immigrants
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/21/us-germany-immigration-idUSBRE96K02B201307
21
5.
German immigration increases at record speed
http://euobserver.com/justice/121852
6.
Germany: Immigration in Transition
http://www.migrationinformation.org/Profiles/display.cfm?ID=235
7.
Germany’s population by 2060: Results of the 12th coordinated population projection
http://www.destatis.de/EN/Publications/Specialized/Population/GermanyPopulation2060.pdf?_
blob=publicationFile
8.
Mail Online: German population shrinks as QUARTER of men say ‘no’ to kids
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2398796/German-population-shrinks-QUARTERmen-say-kids.html
9.
Many immigrants leave Germany within a year
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germnay/oecd-study-finds-large-numbers-of-immigrantsleave-germany-a-905583.html
10. Opinion: How to boost the German birth rate
http://www.dw.de/opinion-how-to-boost-the-german-birth-rate/a-1935744
11. Population movement in Germany
http://laboureconomics.wordpress.com/2013/04/28/population-movement-in-germany/
12. World Population Review: Germany Population
http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/germany-population/
21
I.
Overpopulation problems in Nigeria
The total population of Nigeria was 178.5 million by July 2014, which has increased by 268%
during the last 50 years (Figure 3). In 2014, the population of Nigeria represented 2.46% of the
world’s total population, ranking 7 in the world’s population. The birth rate remained high with 39
per 1000 in 2012, i.e. every woman gives birth to at least 5.38 children. By looking at Table 11, the
natural increase rate stayed high at about 26/1000 people, i.e. the population grew continuously. It
was expected to surpass that of US by 2050. By 2100, Nigeria’s population is expected to be 730
million, just slightly lowered than that of India and China.
Figure 3 Total population in Nigeria: 1950-2010
160
140
Population (million)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1950
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
22
Table 11 Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase rate of Nigeria between 1960 and
2013
Year
Crude birth rate*
Crude death rate*
Natural increase rate*
1960
49
21
28
1965
49
21
28
1970
49
20
29
1975
49
20
29
1980
48
20
28
1985
46
19
27
1990
45
19
26
1995
44
19
25
2000
44
18
26
2005
42
16
26
2010
40
14
26
2013
39
13
26
*per 1000 population
Source: United States Census Bureau, the World Bank
A large population posed many problems to Nigeria. There is a need for resources to support
the people. Much money has to be spent on importing food or providing basic facilities for the
people. Therefore, the economic development will be hindered. People, especially those living in
big cities, need to live in a crowded environment. Infrastructure is insufficient to support the people.
There are not enough job opportunities and unemployment rate is high, nearly 50% for people in
urban areas aged 15-24. Poor living conditions together with high unemployment rate create much
discontent among the people in Nigeria.
People in Nigeria tended to born more babies mainly because of cultural factor. In African
cultures, large families signal prosperity and importance. Besides, polygamy is widespread. So
families are usually large in size. Nigeria is a religious country with the majority of her people
being Roman Catholics and Muslims, who are opposed to contraception. Fewer than 20% Nigerians
practiced contraceptive measures. So birth control is not popular in Nigeria. In addition, with high
infant mortality rate, people incline to give more birth to secure their family size. The problem will
be worsened if no further action is taken. It is because in 2011, about 28% of the population was
female with the age of 12-24years. This proportion is expected to reach about 30% in 2020. Most
girls in Nigeria will get married at an early age. In 2008, 23% of the teenage girls were already
mothers or likely to be pregnant and half of the women were already married at age 18, while 1 in 5
are married at age 15. This means that more women are at their peak reproductive age and the
population will continue to increase.
23
II.
Measures adopted to control population growth
A. Work done by international organizations and foreign countries
1. Family Planning Summit – London, July 2012
The problem of continuous population growth in many less developed countries has posed
an alarm to the world. Since these countries may not be able to help themselves, the United
Kingdom Government, with the support of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and
several national governments have held the captioned Summit to discuss ways to help the less
developed countries, including Nigeria to ease their population problems. The targets of the
Summit are to:

provide affordable, life-saving contraceptive information, services and supplies to an
additional 120 million women and girls in less developed countries by 2020 as well as

prevent over 200,000 women dying in pregnancy and childbirth. It is hoped that the
contraceptive prevalence rate can be raised to 36% by 2018; and
enhance maternal and child survival. People in less developed countries tended to have
more children because there was a high infant mortality rate. People are afraid that their
children cannot grow up. Therefore, more input will be put into the health care system to
reduce maternal and infant mortality rate.
24
In order to achieve these targets, partner countries of the Summit would help the less
developed countries to devise the following policies to:


mobilize financial and health system resources for contraceptives and service delivery at
the country level, and increase those resource contributions over time; and
ensure women’s access to preferred contraceptive methods.
However, all these targets and objectives were still in the planning stage. The Nigerian
government needed to take a more active response to the help of the partner countries of the
Summit.
2. Work done by US Agency for International Development (USAID)（美國國際開發署）
Ever since the mid-eighties, officials of the US Department of State and USAID have tried
to build a network of “family planning” services in Nigeria to control its population growth.
However, little has been achieved. The main problem is that the majority of Nigerians are
Muslims or Catholics who oppose artificial contraception.
The following are the work done by USAID in Nigeria:

In order to remove the religious obstacle to contraception, USAID launched the “Islam
and Population Policy” project which aims to disseminate correct concepts on Islam and
family planning. It is hoped that through education, population policy can be
implemented more easily. The project also aims to convince leaders in poor countries to
formulate and implement national policies to reduce birth rate.
25


“The Days of Dialogue” are organised to involve religious leaders and faith-based
organizations in consultations and trainings to discuss health, marriage and education for
young girls.
Radio shows are produced to encourage young girls to stay in school and delay
marriage.
However, the effectiveness of this policy is still very low. This is because the Nigerians
have a very strong cultural belief and tradition. They thought that children are their pride,
power and wealth. Average Nigerian women are likely to give birth to 6-7 children during her
reproductive lifetime. In addition, the policy failed because it is initiated by a foreign country
and agency. Nigerians thought that this is a form of foreign intervention. So they refused to
accept family planning policy.
B. Work done by local government
The National Population Commission of Nigeria has formulated the “National Policy on
Population for Sustainable Development 2004” which outlined the strategies to face the
challenges posed by rapid population growth. The Policy targets to:

achieve a reduction of national population growth rate to 2% or lower by 2015.




achieve a reduction in total fertility rate at least 0.6 children every 5 years.
increase the modern contraceptive prevalence rate by at least 2% per year.
reduce the infant, child and maternal mortality rate.
eliminate illiteracy and improve education especially for girls.
26
The following are measures devised to meet the above targets:






educate every Nigerian child of full secondary school education. For example, in
Northwest Nigeria, there was a plan to set up 100 schools each year for the next 4 years
starting from 2012.
promote to married couples the use of modern and natural family planning methods.
Health facilities are improved to enable people, especially young adolescents, to get
access to reproductive health services.
increase coverage of population and family life education programmes.
support reproductive and sexual health programmes in the formal and non-formal
education system.
increase opportunities for women to participate in national development activities.
increase youth employment.
Although this policy has been given a national priority, the success depends on the
commitment, co-operation, collaboration and support of all stakeholders. The government also
needs to face great opposition from cultural and religious groups.
References:
1. Counselling and population control in Nigeria
http://www.krepublishers.com/02-Journals/JHE/JHE-22-0-000-000-2007-Web/JHE-22-2-000000-2007-Abstract-PDF/JHE-22-2-101-07-1432-Omohan-M-E/JHE-22-2-101-07-1432-OmohanM-E-Tt.pdf
2. Family planning summit – London, July 2012
http://www.who.int/pmnch/about/steering_committee/b12-12-item5_fp_summit.pdf
27
3. Worldometers - Nigeria population
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/
4. National Population Commission of Nigeria
http://www.commonwealthgovernance.org/partners/national-population-commission-of-nigeria
5. Nigeria demographics profile 2013
http://www.indexmundi.com/nigeria/demographics_profile.html
6. Nigeria expected to have larger population than US by 2050
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-US2050
7. Nigeria population
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/population
8. Nigerian president’s call for birth control sparks debate
http://www.voanews.com/content/nigeria-birth-control-debate/1275536.html
9. Nigeria tested by rapid rise in population
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/world/africa/in-nigeria-a-preview-of-an-overcrowdedplanet.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0
10. Nigeria’s troubling population policy
http://www.punchng.com/opinion/nigerias-troubling-population-policy/?print=1
11. Out of Africa: The case of Nigeria
http://www.pop.org/content/case-nigeria-818
12. Population Council – Nigeria
http://www.popcouncil.org/countries/nigeria.asp
13. Population – size and growth rates
http://www.onlinenigeria.com/population/?blurb=132
28
14. Statement by Jamin Dora Zubema Directo-General National Population Commission on
adolescents and youths at the 45th session of the United Nations Commission on Population and
Development (UNCP&D)
http://www.un.org/esa/population/cpd/cpd2012/Agenda%20item%20item%204/Country%20
statements/Nigeria_Item4.pdf
15. The integration of the National Population Policy into regional planning process for sustainable
development in Nigeria
http://www.google.com.hk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&ved=0CHUQFjAI
&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecolabconsult.com%2Fcomponent%2Fsimpledownload%2F%3Ft
ask%3Ddownload%26fileid%3D%252Fdownload%252FNIPPSS%2BLECTURE.doc&ei=SBo
MU-SVKsnIiAeN8oGQDg&usg=AFQjCNF4OvhUA-bqZheNYsjVxQN_5L9ODg&sig2=uxt6
SDL3KUsnEZRA3VN3UA
29