Mobilizing ICTs for
early warning:
Lessons of the 2004
tsunami
Rohan Samarajiva
World changing (?) disasters



1755 Lisbon earthquake, tsunami and fires (killing
people worshipping in churches)
 100,000 deaths
 Contributes to displacing religion from center of
intellectual life
1883 Krakatoa volcanic implosion and tsunamis
 35,000 deaths
 First disaster covered with help of undersea
telegraphy
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami
 200,000+ deaths & USD 4.5 billion in damage
 First Internet mediated natural disaster
Physical and symbolic worlds, absent
linking technologies
Mediated
interpersonal
Symbolic world
where action
Physical world where originates
hazards occur
The physical, the symbolic & their linking
through ICTs, simplified
Warnings
Mass media
Physical world where
hazards occur
Warnings
Mediated
interpersonal
Symbolic world
where action
originates
Ideal form of hazard detection &
monitoring and warning system
Hazard detection &
monitoring system
Warning Center
Warnings
Physical world where
hazards occur
Mediated
interpersonal
Symbolic world
where action
originates
Mass media
Information & communication
technology & institutions
Physical world of hazards, symbolic worlds,
link technologies & institutions that may/may
not work
Hazard detection &
monitoring system
Warning Center
Warnings
Physical world where
hazards occur
Mediated
interpersonal
Symbolic world
where action
originates
Mass media
Information & communication
technology & institutions
What happened in 10 out of 12 Indian
Ocean countries* on December 26th, 2004
Mediated
interpersonal
Symbolic world
where action
Physical world where originates
hazards occur
*
Excluding Kenya and Seychelles, which had the advantage of 7 hours
How the world knew of the
2004 teletsunami

Earthquake was known within minutes of its
occurrence (0059 UTC) at


Hawaii at Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
Pallekale seismometer, and therefore by Sri
Lanka Geological Survey & Mines Bureau
• But none interpreted it as causing a teletsunami

World’s best tsunami experts knew only
when they read news reports from Sri
Lanka, probably


LBO report filed at 0333 UTC (next talk), or
AFP reports filed at 0346 UTC in Colombo
Why was Aceh’s scream not
heard, unlike Sri Lanka’s?

Aceh



Telecom infrastructure was poor to start with,
but was destroyed by earthquake and
tsunami
Civil war  no journalists
Sri Lanka’s east coast



Cease fire of 2002 had allowed 100,000 +
phones to go in
Most of infrastructure survived
Journalists free to report
ICTs matter, but . . .

But institutions matter even more
ICTs are necessary conditions
 Institutions are the necessary
conditions

Why did the institutions fail?


Despite completion of the International
Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction in
1999, conferences, workshops, training
courses . . .
Why are they failing even now?

With limited exception of Thailand, the
tsunami affected countries have not got their
act together even now, six months later
Disaster warnings are classic
public goods, subject to market
failure
Non rivalrous
 Non excludable

Will be undersupplied by the market
 But government failure too

Disaster warning systems

Made up of

Hazard detection & monitoring system
• Regional/international (e.g., tsunami &
cyclone)
• Local (e.g., dam breaches, landslides)

Warning & alert dissemination system
Hazard information systems

Regional and international systems subject
to problems of intergovernmental
coordination


Thailand and India still squabbling
National and local systems subject to
government failure caused by



Mindsets that privilege relief & recovery over
preparedness and warning
Multiple stakeholder problems
Results of actions falling outside electoral
cycles –Anthony Downs
But government failure is not
found in all countries . . .

Possible the problem is limited to “predatory
states” -- Peter Evans

Driving force is rent seeking
• Partly to get re-elected (Downs)
• But venality too
• Relief and recovery emphasis fits better with rent
seeking

Empirical evidence?

Kaufmann, Kraay and Mastruzzi (2005)
Government effectiveness?
Control of corruption?
No clear correlation, but
worth further investigation



Maldives, Thailand and Sri Lanka, countries
that suffered significant losses, surprisingly
high in percentile rankings
Malaysia had highest/2nd highest relative
scores but gave no warning
Kenya had low scores but managed to
issue warnings


Distance and time
Use of percentile ranking by Kaufmann et
al. blurs gap between relatively less badly
governed and well governed countries
In conclusion . . .



ICTs a necessary condition for warning
ICTs, but also institutions
Governance must be improved, but no need
to improve all of it at once

Public-private partnerships in Bangladesh:
• “The cyclone of 1970 took the lives of 300,000
people but the cyclone of the same intensity of
1991 killed 138,000 people, and the cyclones of
1997 and 1998 resulted in only 127 and 6-7
deaths respectively”
Good governance: the bulwark
that saves lives
For more . . .
http://lirneasia.net
 Samarajiva, R. (2005, forthcoming).
Mobilizing information and
communications technologies for
effective disaster warning:
Lessons from the 2004 tsunami,
New Media and Society
