Global Airlines Industry - Raymond and Leo British Airways - Billy Delta Airlines - Trevor Singapore Airlines - Herman Presentation Agenda • Airline Industry Overview • State of the Industry • Traffic and Economics • Regional Summaries • Analysis of British Airways Delta Airlines Singapore Airlines Airline Industry Overview • Economy grows, travel grows • Current short-term cycle is severe RPKs negative growth SARS virus • Long-term forecast remains healthy Economies will grow 3.2% annually Air travel will be 5.1% • Industry deregulation stimulates air travel New routes and more frequencies • Economic and traffic growth rates vary by region State of Industry Air Traffic Cycles Long-term Trend Air Travel Cycles • Annual negative world traffic growth – In 1991 and in 2001-2002 Air Travel Cycles Cont’… • Long-term trends remain healthy • Drivers for long-term air travel growth Economic growth Globalization of trade Airline network service improvements Declining fares Deregulation and liberalization Air Travel Cycles Cont’… • In short term, air travel is more volatile Consumer confidence Business profits Depressed income High-technology stock market “bubble” September 11 Outbreak of SARS Long-term Trend Long-term Trend Cont’… • Keys: Forecast shows 5% fewer world RPKs (Revenue per kilos) at the end of 20 years than without this unusual short-term cycle Yet, air travel growth will continue the pace at 5.1% annually Traffic and Economics Economic and Traffic Forecast • World GDP is forecast to grow by 3.2% over the next 20 years • Mature economies, GDP growth will average between 2~3% • Emerging economies, GDP growth may average over 4% Forecast Cont’… Regional Summaries European Airline Industry Companies • Company in focus: British Airways – Others: • Air France • KLM • Lufthansa • Virgin Atlantic Source: Air Transport Association Industry Highlights – 2002/03 • Passengers – 13.8 millions reduction • Breakeven Load Factor – 69.4%; compared to a 69.2% load factor • Profit – USD$0.87 billions loss Factors influencing the industry • SARS phenomenon • Iraqi War • Post 9/11 recovery phrase • External Shocks – Currency Appreciation – Security & Insurance Source: Association of European Airlines Competition • External – The US Airlines in the North Atlantic market • Internal – Substantially increased of no-frills competition in Europe • Ryanair, Easyjet, Go, bmibaby, Virgin Exp, etc • Consolidation & Alliances – Star, Oneworld, KLM/Northwest, SkyTeam Regulatory Environment • Deregulation is a global trend – First stage of liberalization in European Airlines • European governments wants: – Low fares Consequence – Increased demand • Increased demand for infrastructure growth Trends • Slow recovery • Mature economies with low growth rates • Continuation of liberalization • Growing international networks • Rise of “No-Frills” carriers Source: Association of European Airlines N. American Airline Industry Companies • Company in focus: Delta Airlines – Others: • United Airlines • American Airlines • Southwest Airlines • Northwest Airlines Industry Highlights – 2002/03 • Passengers – 17.4 millions reduction • Breakeven Load Factor – Increased from 76.7% to 81.4%; compared to 72.1% load factor • Profits (Loss) – USD$12.1 billions loss Factors influencing the industry • Post 9/11 recovery/syndrome – Customer avoidance of air travel • Government tax & Security policies • Insurance • Escalating fuel prices • Economic downturn • Iraq War and SARS phenomenon Source: Air Transport Association Competition • 85% of the passengers have more than 2 or more carriers • Growth of hub-and-spoke – Increased competition in small markets • Alliances • Star • SkyTeam • OneWorld Regulatory Environment • Deregulations – Mature liberalization • Post 9/11 Financial Effect – Increase financial burden for airlines – Additional insurance costs • Increased tax burden Source: Air Transport Association Source: Air Transport Association Trends • Slowly recovering • Mature economies with low growth rates • Low fares • Cost-cutting strategies • Efficient airline networks Asian Airline Industry Northeast Asia • Annual GDP growth is forecast at 2.1% • This low rate is driven by Japan • Korea will grow at a faster rate than Japan • Air travel will grow above world average Globalization and liberalization Fully deregulation Air travel growth at 6.2% Northeast Asia Cont’… • Fragmentation will continue – North America will remain popular – Europe continues to grow Southeast Asia • A mixture of countries at varying stages of economic growth • GDP is forecast to grow at 4.7% annually over the next 20 years • The region is diverse Economic and cultural interchange Southeast Asia Cont’… • Southeast Asia has strong cultural ties with both Europe and North America VRF (visiting friends and relatives) • Region with its natural resources and cultural attractions is forecast to develop as a leisure destination for Asia Southwest Asia • GDP outlook is forecast to grow at 5.5% • Subject to: Privatization Globalization Infrastructure Tourism development • Overall traffic growth of the region will average 7.0% Southwest Asia Cont’… • Traffic within Southwest • Asia will average 8.7%, one of the world’s highest Encompasses several air travel markets Middle class travels for business Pilgrimage Tourists and VFR China • GDP forecast of 5.9% per year is the highest in the world • China is the fastest growing region Air travel expands at 7.6% • World Trade Organization Globalization is a major driver China Cont’… • Airline industry is modernizing Airline consolidation Infrastructure investment Network and fleet rationalization Participation in major alliances Airlines Analysis Stock Price: £ 224 £1=1.68 US Dollar (Nov 7, 2003) British Airways Background • British Airways is a public limited company • BA, is the leading airline in Europe • One of the biggest in the world • It manages almost 330 planes, 550 destinations in 133 • • countries BA has holdings in other airlines, such as the Australian, Quantas, and the Spanish Iberia. Major destinations are Europe, America, Africa, Australia, South Pacific and Middle East British Airways • Strategies – Low-cost strategy • £650 m in cost saving by March 2003 • Reduced manpower by 4446 people – Corporate Mission • Low fare in UK domestic market • Greater use of e-technology for customers, staff and agents – Focus on business class passengers British Airways • Main Competitors – Europe Market • Lufthansa and Air France are dominating the market – North America Market • United Airlines & Delta are dominating the market British Airways • Alliance – Oneworld alliance • 8 airline members: – British Airways, Aer Lignus, American Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Finnair, lberia, LanChile and Qantas. SWOT Analysis • Strengths – Strong brand name – Good reputation – Reduce net debt • Weaknesses – – – – – – Reduce boeing aircrafts Routes reduced Reduce service and flights Increase insurance cost Increase security cost Downturn in passenger demand – cutting flights to the US and the Middle East SWOT Analysis • Opportunities – ‘Open skies’ between US and UK – Predict growth in Europe market • Threats – Economic weakness – SARS – Middle East developments – Price competition with other airlines in Europe Financial Ratio ROA ROI ROE P/E P to BV 2003 0.0253 0.00708 0.0317 15.45 0.0455 2002 0.01 -0.0128 -0.0643 -17.35 0.104 Financial Data • Total Revenue=$12,147 i by 7.8% • Total Expense=$7616 i by 10.21 • Net Income=$72 h by 2.39 • Net asset=$3,592 h by 3% • Earnings per share=6.7 • Operating margin=3.8% h by 5.1 pts • Net debt/total capital ratio=60.7% i by 5.3 pts Operating Data • • • • • • • • RPK= £100,112 h by 5.8% ASK= £139,132 i by 0.9% Passenger Load Factor=71.9 h by 1.5% RTK= £14,213 i by 2.9% ATK= £21,328 i by 6.7% Overall Load Factor=66.6 h by 4% Passengers Carried(000)=38,019 i by 5% Tonnes of Cargo Carried(000)=764 h by 1.2% Stock Valuation 1 Year Price Chat 1year price range: £85.00 - £215.75 Today’s stock price: £224 Stock Valuation Last Trade Change 7 Nov · 224.00 p +10.75 (+5.04%) Day's Range Bid Ask 214.00 - 225.50 221 224.25 52-wk Range EPS (ttm) P/E 85.00 - 215.75 6.7 31.83 Prev Cls Volume Div Date 213.25 26,714,080 N/A Open Avg Vol Ex-Div 214 14,566,425 N/A Mkt Cap Div/Shr Yield 2.425B 0 N/A Sales per activity Passenger 85.00% Maintenance 8.00% Freight and mail 6.00% Non-scheduled 1.00% Data as of 31/03/2003 Geographical analysis of group turnover and operating profit/(loss) £ million Turnover Europe The Americas Africa,Middle East and Indiansub-continent Far East and Australasia Operational profit/(loss) Europe The Americas Africa Middle East and Indiansub-continent FarEast and Australasia 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 2,838 2,763 1,201 886 7,688 -117 223 168 21 295 3,208 2,863 1,262 1,007 8,340 3,388 3,450 1,304 1,136 9,278 3,400 3,253 1,220 1,067 8,940 3,409 3,272 1,133 1,078 8,892 -244 -172 -310 -166 144 470 308 451 91 92 62 124 -101 -10 24 33 -110 380 84 442 Sales per geographic Core Market United Kingdom 47.00% Geographic areas Europe 64.00% Asia / Pacific 7.00% Americas 19.00% Rest of the World 10.00% Data as of 31/03/2003 Balance Sheet • • • • • Total Asset=12900 Current Asset=2725 Total Liabilities=10626 Current Liabilities=2904 Total Shareholder Equity=2274 Balance Sheet Shareholder's funds Total debt and others Total 2003 2002 £2058 £2016 10842 11646 £12900 £13662 Total assets £12900 £13662 Income Statement Year Revenues* Expenses Net Profit* 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 8,892 8,940 9,278 8,340 7,688 8,686 8,961 9,164 8,482 7,616 206 -21 114 -142 72 * in million(s) of Pound Sterling (EPS in Pence) Revenue Composition Revenue 8% 1% Scheduled servicespassenger Scheduled services-freight and mail 6% 85% Non-scheduled services Other revenue Cost Structure Cost Structure Emplo yee co sts Eepreciatio n and amo risatio n A ircrah o perating lease co sts Fuel and o il co sts 10% 9% 28% 13% 8% Engineering and o ther aircraft co sts Landing fees and en ro ute charges 10% 8% 11% 3% Other o perating co sts Selling co sts A cco mmo datio n, gro und equipment co sts and currency differences Profits Over 5 Years Net Profit* Net Profit* 300 Profit 200 100 0 -100 -200 1999 2000 2001 Year 2002 2003 Earnings Per Share Over 5 Years Year Earnings per share 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 6.7 -13.2 10.6 -2 19.5 Cash Flow Statement • Cash and Cash Equivalents ( Net cash inflow for capital expenditure and financial investment + Net cash inflow/(outflow) for acquisitions and disposals = Cash used in financing) Cash Flow Statement Net Net Net Net cash provided by operatiing activities cash used in investing activities cash (used in)/ provieded by financing activities Cash inflow/(outflow) Cash and cash equivalents 2003 2002 £ 1185 £ 866 -249 -327 279 75 £ 158 £ (4) 1215 614 British Airways • Fleet Valuation – – – – Avg Fleet age(yrs): 7.5 Avg Life (yrs): 25 Depreciation Method: Straight-Line Avg Salvage Value: 0 Type Concorde Boeing 747-400 Boeing 777 Boeing 767-300 Boeing 757-200 Airbus A319 Aorbis A320 Boeing 737-300 Boeing 737-400 Boeing 737-500 Turboprops Embraer Rj145 Avro Rj100 British Aerospace 146 Total MV Owned Qty 5 56 43 21 13 33 24 21 27 10 28 28 16 5 Price 230.5 184.5 151.5 113.8 73.5 46 51 41.5 48 49 42 43.5 41.5 37.5 Initial ValueDep'n 1152.5 345.75 10332 3099.6 6514.5 1954.35 2389.8 716.94 955.5 286.65 1518 455.4 1224 367.2 871.5 261.45 1296 388.8 490 147 1176 352.8 1218 365.4 664 199.2 187.5 56.25 Current Value 806.75 7232.4 4560.15 1672.86 668.85 1062.6 856.8 610.05 907.2 343 823.2 852.6 464.8 131.25 20992.51 Net MVA vs Mkt Cap Net MVA vs Mkt Cap Est fleet value = 21US B Current assets =2.725 B Total debt =5.149 B Net MVA =18.57US B vs Mkt cap=2.425B Therefore, the assets are……undervalued Recommendation Good News • Improved net income • Increased cash inflow • Reduced net debt • Decreased operating costs Recommendation: S-T: buy Bad News • Decreased in revenue • Downturn in passenger demand • Assets undervalued L-T: hold Delta Airlines U.S. Carrier Nov. 5 / 03 Stock Price: $12.89 Background Information • Founded – 1924 • Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia • CEO: Leo F. Mullin • Employees: 70,000+ • Daily Flights + Partners: 6,130 • Destinations: 453 cities in 82 countries Strategies • Build adequate liquidity • Significant reduction in costs • Become more competitive in the “low-fare” sector – Song, a highly competitive, wholly owned subsidiary Competitors / Alliances Competitors • American Airlines • United Airlines • International Airline companies (minimal) Alliances • Atlantic Southeast Airlines • Comair, Inc. • Other Delta connection carriers • Skyteam Alliances • Codeshare partners SWOT Strengths • Well positioned hub networks • Partners & Alliances • Good Employee Relations • Technological Innovation Weaknesses • Lower fairs due to high competition • Less demand due to 911 • Higher Expense Map of Hub Network SWOT Analysis Opportunities • Boston airport terminal project • More international flights and coverage Threats • Low-fare airline companies • Demand for air travel does not increase Balance Sheet - Assets Period Ending Dec 31, 2002 Dec 31, 2001 Cash & Cash Equivalents $1,969 $2,210 Total Current Assets $3,902 $3,567 Property & Equipment $16,524 $16,097 Other Assets $4,294 $3,941 $24,720 $23,605 Total Assets Balance Sheet - Liabilities Period Ending Dec 31, 2002 Dec 31, 2001 Total Current Liabilities $6,455 $6,403 Non-current Liabilities $16,530 $12,349 Total Liabilities $22,985 $18,752 Common Stock $271 $271 $1,639 $2,930 ($1,562) $25 $893 $3,769 Retained Earnings Accumulated income (loss) Total Equity Fleet / Net MV Assets Aircraft Type Owned Capital Lease Operating Lease Total Average Age B-727-200 18 - 3 21 23.5 B-737-200 - 42 10 52 17.8 B-737-300 - - 26 26 16.1 B-737-800 71 - - 71 2.2 B-757-200 77 3 41 121 11.3 B-767-200 15 - - 15 19.6 B-767-300 4 - 24 28 12.9 B-767-300ER 51 - 8 59 6.9 B-767-400 21 - - 21 1.8 B-777-200 8 - - 8 2.9 MD-11 8 - 7 15 8.9 MD-88 63 - 57 120 12.5 MD-90 16 - - 16 7.1 EMB-120 29 - - 29 11.8 ATR-72 4 - 15 19 8.5 CRJ-100/200 73 - 122 195 3.7 CRJ-700 15 - - 15 0.3 Total 473 45 313 831 9.0 NMV Asset Evaluation Total Market Value of Owned Fleet (in millions) Less: Total LT Debt Add: Current Assets Total NMV of Assets (Not including investments) $14186 9576 3902 $8512 Delta’s market capitalization is sitting at 1.65 billion, which is less than total NMV of assets which sits at 8.5 billion. This shows that Delta’s equity is undervalued. Income Statement - Revenue Period Ending Dec 31, 2002 Dec 31, 2001 $12,321 $12,964 Cargo $458 $506 Other $526 $409 $13,305 $13,879 Passenger Total Operating Income Revenue Allocation (2002) 3% 4% Passenger Cargo Other 93% Income Statement - Expense Period Ending Dec 31, 2002 Dec 31, 2001 Salaries $6,165 $6,124 Aircraft Fuel $1,683 $1,817 Depreciation $1,148 $1,283 Contracted Services $1,003 $1,016 Other Expenses $3,306 $3,639 $13,305 $13,879 Total Operating Expense Expense Allocation (2002) 25% 45% 8% 9% 13% Salaries Fuel Depreciation Contract Service Other Earnings Trend 1803 1637 1318 Operating Income 1998 1067 1999 2000 -1602 -1309 2001 2002 1196 815 Net Income 1998 1999 2000 -1230 -1287 2001 2002 EPS Trend 8 6.34 7.2 7.05 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -9.99 -6.69 2001 2002 -6 -8 -10 1998 1999 2000 Cash Flow Statement Net Cash from Operations Less: Net Cash from Investments Add: Net Cash from Financing Net Cash Inflow / Outflow $285 (1109) 583 $1977 Major Changes • Operations – Flight equipment less spending (2321) (922) • Investing – Boston Airport Terminal (485) 58 • Financing – Short Term Obligations 701 (1144) Ratios Year 2002 Delta American United P/E Ratio N/A N/A N/A P/BV Ratio 2.37 N/A N/A 0.798 0.712 0.783 ROA (TTM) -3.28% -5.49% -16.26% ROE (TTM) -66.72% -351.26% N/A Profit Margin (TTM) -6.12% -9.60% -27.85% Operating Margin (TTM) -8.75% -7.56% -21.02% Valuation Ratios Internal Liquidity Current Ratio (MRQ) Management Effectiveness Profitability Ratios Operating Data Year 2002 2001 Revenue Passenger Miles (mill) 102,029 101,717 Available Seat Miles (mill) 141,719 147,837 Passenger Load Factor 72.0% 68.8% Breakeven Passenger Load Factor 79.0% 77.3% Cargo Ton Miles (mill) 1,405 1,583 Fuel Gallons Consumed (mill) 2,514 2,649 Number of Aircraft in Fleet 831 814 Average Age of Aircraft (years) 9.0 9.1 75,100 76,300 Employees Stock Valuation Delta Air Lines (NYST: DAL) Last Trade 12.89 Day’s Range 12.68 – 13.04 Trade Time Nov 5 / 03 52wk Range 6.56 – 16.05 Change -0.06 (0.46%) Volume 2,421,300 2,505,181 Prev Close 12.95 Avg Vol (3m) Open 12.95 Market Cap 1.59B Bid N/A P/E (TTM) N/A Ask N/A EPS (TTM) -6.741 19.40 Div & Yield N/A (N/A) 1y Target Est Stock Price Chart Recommendation Hold – Moderate Buy • Undervalued according to NMV assets • High market share • No dividends & negative earnings • Very volatile industry Today’s stock price: S$12.50 Exchange rate: S$1 to US$0.57 Background • Found in Oct. 1972 – Separated from Malaysian Airways • Started from 10 aircrafts flying 22 cities • Right now, spans over 90 cities globally with about 95 aircrafts • Singapore government owned 57% of shares Background con’t • Ranking in 2002 – World 4th largest airline in RPK – World 2nd largest airline in freight carried Alliances • Equity partner – acquired 49% shares of Virgin Atlantic Airways in March 2000 • Star Alliances – Joined in April 2000, become 11th members with such as Air Canada, United Airline, Lufthansa, Thai Airline, ANA Airways. Competitors • Cathay Pacific • Japan Airlines • Malaysian Airlines SWOT Analysis • Strengths: – Low debt (debt to equity traditionally <0.1) – Encourage employees’ motivation • Profit-sharing program – Young aircraft , average age of 5 years old – Excellent in-flight services • e.g.: free drinks, complimentary headsets… SWOT Analysis con’t • Weakness: – Relied on long haul flight – Located in SARS outbreak area SWOT Analysis con’t • Opportunities: – Work with partners – Demand increase – Competitors’ struggle SWOT Analysis con’t • Threats: – Global economic weakness – SARS comeback again – Fuel cost increase – terrorism Strategies • Cost cutting – No-pay leave – Wage cuts – Reduction in staff – Less flying allowance paid – Postpone profit-sharing bonus • Assets selling – sold 5 Pratt and Whitney engines finance corp. Strategies con’t • New route developing – Bangalore – Shenzhen – L.A. • Re-Fleeting plans – Combination of Air-Bus and Boeing • Price cutting, promotion, flights adding Balance sheet Balance Sheet (in S$million) Shareholders' funds Total debt + others Total 30-Sep-03 30-Jun-03 31-Mar-02 30-Sep-02 $10,614.0 $10,397.7 $10,708.8 $10,480.5 8,798.7 8,380.5 8,475.2 8,387.0 $19,412.7 $18,778.2 $19,184.0 $18,867.5 Total assets $19,412.7 $18,778.2 $19,184.0 $18,867.5 Earning per share EPS (cents) EPS over 5 years 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 FY 98-99 FY99-00 FY 00-01 Financial year FY 01-02 FY 02-03 Operating profit Operating profit over 5yrs 1,600.0 1,400.0 S$million 1,200.0 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 FY 98-99 FY99-00 FY 00-01 Financial year FY 01-02 FY 02-03 Cost structure Cost structure in Q2/03 3% 4% fuel 22% 5% s taff 6% aircraft depreciation and rental 6% aircraft maintenance and overhaul handling 17% 9% s ales landing and parking 11% 17% inflight meal and other pas s enger cos ts communication and IT others Income statement Income statement con’t Cash flow statement (in S$million) Q2/03 Q2/02 H1/03 H1/02 Net cash provided by operating activities $ 456.8 $ 459.0 $ 168.9 $ 1,178.3 Net cash used in investing activities (218.1) (219.2) (365.4) (581.7) Net cash (used in)/provided by financing activities (139.4) (123.9) 163.2 (379.9) Net cash inflow/(outflow) $ 99.3 $ 115.9 $ (33.3) $ 216.7 Cash and cash equivalents at end period $730.3 $1,241.0 $730.3 $1,241.0 Operating data Passanger Passengers carried (000's) Revenue passanger-km (million) Available seat-km (million) Passenger load factor (%) Cargo Cargo and mail carried (M kg) Cargo load (M tonne-km) Q2/03 3,644.0 17,772.8 22,379.8 79.4 264.7 1699.6 Operating data con’t Operating data con’t Ratios ROA ROE ROI Net debt to equity Price to book equity As at As at 30SEP03 30JUN03 0.02 -0.02 0.03 -0.03 0.54 -0.47 0.10 0.12 1.44 1.46 Stock valuation • Ticker: SIAL.SI • Trade in Singapore Stock Exchange • Shares issued (as at 30SEP03): 1.22B Stock valuation SIA LTD (SES:SIAL.SI) Change Prev Cls Last Trade 7 Nov ?12.50 con’t 0.00 (0.00%) Open Volume 12.5 12.5 1,089,000 Day's Range Bid Ask P/E Mkt Cap Avg Vol 12.50 - 12.70 12.4 12.5 14.3 P/S N/A N/A Div/Shr Div Date N/A 0.15 11-Aug PEG Yield Ex-Div N/A 1.2 29-Jul 52-wk Range 8.25 - 12.90 N/A N/A EPS?ttm) N/A 0.874 0 5-year price chart 1-year price chart Recommendation • Moderate Buy – Good management – Recover so fast – Low debt – Volatile stock, but upward trend