WELCOME BACK! What did we learn yesterday? • • • • • What’s happening in NSCLC – updates from ASCO Clinical trial endpoint selection Basics principles of Phase 1 trials Design considerations in Ph II studies Design considerations for biomarker-driven trials What will we learn today? • How to optimize clinical trial design in oncology – The role of translational research – Impact of key statistics principles and methodology – How to practice good clinical trial compliance – Your role as a PI – How to evaluate well-designed vs poorly designed clinical trials • What you are studying! – Research project coaching Afternoon coaching session guidance • You will have the opportunity to present and receive guidance on your ongoing research project • All delegates must participate! • Each participant will have 5 minutes to present – Informally, with or without slides, you can use flipcharts or just speak • You should include: – What clinical question do you hope to answer? – Project objective(s) – Project planning/implementation – Potential results/conclusions • Consider any questions for TOP network(including faculty) or opportunities for partnership with co-delegates • Following each presentation there will be 5 minutes of discussion/questions Translational Research in Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC): What Are the Available “Tools” & How Can You Use Them? David R. Gandara, MD University of California Davis Comprehensive Cancer Center 7 Available “Tools” for Translational Research in NSCLC: Interaction of Pathology, “Omics,” and Immuno-Biology From “All Patients Are the Same” From Histology to Prognostic and/or Predictive Biomarkers to Inter- and Intra-Patient Heterogeneity in Tumour Biology & Immuno-Biology Translational Research Personalised Therapy for Individual Patients With NSCLC Adapted from Gandara et al. Clin Lung Cancer. 2012. 8 Moving From Histologic Classification to Molecular Classification of NSCLC Patients Into Prognostic or Predictive Subgroups for Therapy • Histologic subtyping groups tumours based on microscopic pattern recognition by a pathologist • At best, Histology = “crude molecular selection” EGFR Mutation Positive ALK FISH 9 Evolution of NSCLC Subtyping From Histologic to Molecular-Based NSCLC as one disease First Targeted Therapies in NSCLC ALK EGFR Li, Mack, Gandara et al. JCO. 2013 (adapted from Pao et al). 10 Magnitude of Genomic Derangement Is Greatest in Lung Cancer n=109 81 64 38 316 100 17 82 Mutations Per Mb DNA 28 119 21 40 20 Carcinogen-induced Cancers 100 / Mb 10 / Mb Hematologic & Childhood Cancers Ovarian, Breast, Prostate Cancers 0.1 / Mb Squamous Adenoma 1 / Mb ?? Adapted from The Cancer Genome Atlas Project: Govindan & Kondath et al. Nature. 2013. 11 Lung Cancer Complexity on an Individual Patient Basis: Squamous-Cell Lung Cancer Examples (“Circos”) LUSC-66-2756 LUSC-34-2600 LUSC-56-1622 LUSC-60-2695 LUSC-43-3394 LUSC-60-2711 LUSC-34-2609 LUSC-60-2713 From Ramaswamy Govindan. TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas). 12 Integration of Biomarkers Into Clinical Practice: Past, Current & Future Empiric Approach (Past) (Compound-Based Therapy): Clinical-histologic factors to select drugs for individual patients 1. Histomorphological Diagnosis: Cancerous 2. Molecular Diagnosis: Archival FFPE tumour specimens Archival cancer specimens Macro- or Micro-dissection of Tumours Extract tumour nucleic acids: DNA and RNA Representative technologies: Current Approach (Target-Based Therapy V1.0): Single gene molecular testing for decision-making in individual patients Evolving Approach (Target-Based Therapy V2.0): Multiplexed molecular tests with increased sensitivity & output for decision-making in individual patients Near-Future Approach (Patient-Based Therapy): Genomic profiling by high throughput next generation sequencing for decision-making in individual patients From Li, Gandara et al. JCO. 2013. Plasma cfDNA by NGS Single Biomarker Tests: • Sanger DNA Sequencing • RT-PCR • FISH • IHC Multiplex, Hot Spot Mutation Tests: • PCR-based SNaPshot • PCR-based Mass Array SNP • Sequenom Initial High-Throughput Technologies: • SNP/CNV DNA microarray • RNA microarray Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS): • Whole Genome or Exome Capture Sequencing (DNA) • Whole or Targeted Transcriptome Sequencing (RNA) • Epigenetic profiling 13 Comprehensive Cancer Genomic Test: 200+ Genes Foundation Medicine One <14 days 14 Guardant360 Panel 2015: Plasma NGS Complete* or Critical Exon Coverage in 68 Genes Point Mutations Amplifications Fusions Indels AKT1 ALK APC AR AR ALK EGFR exon 19 deletions AFAR ARID1A ATM BRAF BRAF RET EGFR exon 20 insertions BRCA1 BRCA2 CCDN1 CCND2 CCNE1 ROS1 CCNE1 CDH1 CDK4 CDK6 CDK4 NTRK1 CDKN2A CDKN2B CTNNB1 EGFR CDK8 ERBB2 ESR1 EZH2 FBXW7 EGFR FGFR1 FGFR2 FGFR3 GATA3 ERBB2 GNA11 GNAQ GNAS HNF1A FGFR1 HRAS IDH1 IDH2 JAK2 FGFR2 JAK3 KIT KRAS MAP2K1 KIT MAP2K2 MET MLH1 MPL KRAS MYC NF1 NFE2L2 NOTCH1 MET NPM1 NRAS NTRK1 PDGFRA MYC PIK3CA PTEN PTPN11 RAF1 PDGFRA RET RHEB RHOA RIT1 PIK3CA ROS1 SMAD4 SMO SRC RAF1 STK11 TERT** TP53 VHL *Complete exon coverage for genes in bold; **Includes TERT promoter region. 15 Available “Tools” for Translational Research in Advanced NSCLC “Targeted Therapy” Chemotherapy Histologic Subtyping for Chemotherapy ? Targeted Nintedinib? Necitumumab? Ramucirumab? Checkpoint Immunotherapy Anti-PD-1 and PD-L1 Anti-CTLA-4 Targeted TKIs: -EGFR -ALK -ROS1 Translational Research Opportunities: How do we optimize use of these “tools” (therapeutic modalities) in order to create new treatment paradigms? Targeted Therapies in Oncogene-Driven NSCLC: De Novo & Acquired Resistance • Targeted Therapies against Oncogene-Driven Cancers, EGFR mutation+ (erlotinib) or ALKfusion+ (crizotinib), improve response and PFS when compared with chemotherapy • Even in these most sensitive cancers, approximately 25% to 40% do not respond to TKI therapy (de novo resistance) • Even in these most-sensitive cancers, acquired resistance is universal, with PFS averaging ≈10-14 months Oncogene-driven NSCLC Gandara, Redman et al. Clin Lung Cancer. 2014. 17 Evolutionary Biology & Acquired Tumour Resistance • Intra-tumour heterogeneity is present at baseline (scenarios 1 & 2) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 “Driver” Oncogene “Driver” Oncogene Evolution over time with therapy Evolution over time with therapy New “Driver” New “Driver” • Reducing sensitive clones by therapy permits unopposed growth of less fit resistant clones or emergence of a new clone (“Tumour Darwinism”) • Separating “new drivers” from “passengers” is complex • This process is dynamic, not static • Original sensitive clone is still present ]. at time of resistance Original Sensitive Clone Adapted from Gandara et al. Clin Lung Cancer. 2012. 18 Available “Tools” for Translational Research: Re-Biopsy to Assess Tumour Evolution Referring Physician Identify Patient Pathologist Multidisciplinary Team (Tumour Board) Identify Target Lesion Med Oncologist Thoracic Surgeon Radiation Oncologist Pulmonologist Radiologist Pathologist Pulmonologist Interventional Radiologist Surgeon Histology Evaluation Determine Therapy Biopsy Molecular Biomarker Testing When Progression Re-Biopsy Oncologist T r e a t Determine New Therapy Treat When Progression Re-Biopsy Adapted from: Gandara. ASTRO/ASCO/IASLC Symposium on Molecular Testing, 2012. 19 Emergence of ALK Resistance Mechanisms After Crizotinib • • • • Secondary resistance ALK mutations ALK gene copy number increase Transition to EGFR mutation Transition to KRAS mutation Consistent with mathematical models of evolutionary biology Doeble, Camidge et al. CCR. 2012. 20 Schema for Multidisciplinary Integration of Biomarker Testing in Advanced-Stage NSCLC: Looking for “Actionable” Oncogenes Referring Physician Identify Patient Pathologist Multidisciplinary Team (Tumour Board) Identify Target Lesion Med Oncologist Thoracic Surgeon Radiation Oncologist Pulmonologist Radiologist Pathologist Pulmonologist Interventional Radiologist Surgeon Histology Evaluation Determine Therapy Biopsy Molecular Biomarker Testing When Progression Re-Biopsy Plasma cfDNA Oncologist T r e a t Determine New Therapy Treat When Progression Re-Biopsy Plasma cfDNA Adapted from: Gandara. ASTRO/ASCO/IASLC Symposium on Molecular Testing, 2012. 21 Association Between pEGFR mut+ at C3 and PFS/OS (Both Treatment Arms Combined) PFS OS C3 mut+ C3 mut+ C3 mut– C3 mut– PFS probability 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 7.2 12.0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 42 42 35 28 14 7 6 4 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 80 80 77 65 59 47 40 34 32 28 23 19 13 10 7 18.2 31.9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 Time (months) Patients, n C3 mut+ C3 mut– Median = 18.2 months (95% CI: 14.2–27.4) Median= 31.9 months (95% CI: 23.5–undefined) HR = 0.51 (95% CI: 0.31–0.84); P=0.0066 1.0 OS probability Median = 7.2 months (95% CI: 6.0–7.8) Median =1 2.0 months (95% CI: 9.6–16.5) HR = 0.32 (95% CI: 0.21–0.48); P<0.0001 1.0 Time (months) 0 3 0 0 Patients, n C3 mut+ C3 mut– 42 42 42 41 37 32 30 28 23 21 18 14 14 12 9 4 3 2 0 80 80 80 77 77 77 76 71 68 64 59 52 38 29 22 12 3 1 0 Mok et al. WCLC 2013. 22 Approaches to Acquired Resistance in Oncogene-driven Cancers (EGFR MT & ALK Fusion) Systemic-PD Advanced NSCLC With Oncogene-driven Cancer Targeted TKI -EGFR Mutation -ALK Fusion Switch Therapy: Chemotherapy or 2nd/3rd gen TKI RECIST Response Subsequent Systemic PD Continue same TKI alone (post-progressive disease) Add Therapy to TKI -Chemotherapy ? -Another Targeted Agent? Re-biopsy Gandara et al. Clin Lung Cancer. 2014. 23 IMPRESS: Phase III Trial of Post-progression Gefitinib/Chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy Alone in EGFR Mutation–Positive NSCLC After Prior Response (Acquired Resistance) Gefitinib 250 mg + cisplatin + pemetrexed up to 6 cycles (n=133) • Stage IIIB/IV NSCLC • EGFR mutation positive • WHO PS 0–1 • Prior response* to 1st-line gefitinib PD • PD <4 weeks prior to study (n=265) R PD Primary endpoint: PFS 1:1 Placebo + cisplatin + pemetrexed up to 6 cycles (n=132) PD Secondary endpoints • OS, ORR, DCR • Safety and tolerability, health-related QoL *CR/PR ≥4 months or SD >6 months. Mok et al. ESMO-Ann Oncol. 2014;25(suppl 4): abstr LBA2_PR. 24 IMPRESS: Phase III Trial of Post-progression Gefitinib/Chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy Alone in EGFR Mutation–Positive NSCLC After Prior Response (Acquired Resistance) PFS (primary endpoint; ITT) OS (ITT; 33% of events) Gefitinib (n=133) Placebo (n=132) 5.4 5.4 Median PFS, months Response: Number of events, n (%) 34% 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 14.8 17.2 50 (37.6) 37 (28.0) HRa (95% CI) = 1.62 (1.05, 2.52); p=0.029 1.0 Probability of PFS Probability of PFS 32% Placebo (n=132) Median OS, months HRa (95% CI) = 0.86 (0.65, 1.13); p=0.273 1.0 Gefitinib (n=133) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Gefitinib (n=133) 0.1 0 0 2 4 Gefitinib (n=133) 0.1 Placebo (n=132) Placebo (n=132) 0 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 Time of randomisation (months) Patients at risk: Gefitinib 133 Placebo 132 110 100 88 85 40 39 25 17 12 5 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 2 4 0 2 0 0 Time of randomisation (months) 6 4 0 0 Patients at risk: Gefitinib 133 Placebo 132 125 129 111 119 88 94 64 76 43 55 27 39 19 27 12 16 8 10 4 7 Mok et al. ESMO-Ann Oncol. 2014;25(suppl 4): Abstract LBA2_PR. 25 Mechanisms of EGFR TKI Resistance (Selected) • Secondary EGFR mutation (ie, T790m) 2nd Gen EGFR TKIs ie, Afatinib Afatinib/Cetuximab rd 3 Gen- AZ9291, CO1686 • Bypass signaling via ERBB3 Anti-ERBB3 drugs ie, MM151 MoAB • MET over-expression MET Inhibitors ie, MET-Mab (MoAB) ARQ197 (TKI) • PIK3CA Mutation/AKT ie, BKM120 (PIK3CA) ie, MK2206 (AKT) & Others HSP inhibitors ie, Ganetespib AUY922 Adapted from Engelman et al. 26 Best Response in EGFR-Mutated T790M+ Cancers CO-1686 (Sequist: Targ Tx 2015) AZD9291 (Jänne: Targ Tx 2015) 27 28 ETCTN Project Team Proposals: AZD9291 in EGFR-mutated NSCLC Post-progression After Erlotinib 29 Clinical Trial Designs to Address Circumvention of Acquired Resistance in Oncogene-Driven NSCLC Prolongation of Remission (delay time to PD) Oncogene-driven NSCLC Targeted TKI Monotherapy (Standard of Care) Biopsy AdvancedStage NSCLC Identification of Driver Oncogene EGFR Mutation Targeted TKI Monotherapy (2nd-Generation Agent) Multi-drug Targeted Therapy Gandara et al. Clin Lung Cancer. 2014. 30 Phase II/III Trial of Afatinib With or Without Cetuximab in 1st-Line Therapy of EGFR-mutated NSCLC (S1403) Stage IIIB-IV NSCLC with EGFR mutation 1st Line EGFR TKI naive R A N D O M I S A T I O N Afatinib* Afatinib + Cetuximab* *at PD: Biopsy for genomic study & PDX development (selected patients) PD: progressive disease PDX: patient-derived xenograft PIs: Goldberg, Lilenbaum, Politi. 31 Modulator Effects of EGFR MoAB Cetuximab: Afatinib (BIBW) + Cetuximab in EGFR T790M+ GEMMs Pretreatment Cetuximab H Cetux/BIBW H H Pretreatment BIBW H Cetux/BIBW H H C Control N T1 T2 T1 T2 B T1 T2 B+C T1 T2 pEGFR tEGFR Regales et al. J Clin Invest. 2009. Actin 32 Afatinib + Cetuximab in EGFR-mutated NSCLC Refractory to EGFR TKI Response rate: ≈30% Clinical benefit (DCR): 75% Janjigian, Pao et al. Cancer Discovery. 2014;4:1036-1045. 33 Phase II/III Trial of Afatinib With or Without Cetuximab in 1st-Line Therapy of EGFR-mutated NSCLC (S1403) Stage IIIB-IV NSCLC with EGFR mutation 1st Line EGFR TKI naive R A N D O M I S A T I O N Afatinib* Afatinib + Cetuximab* *at PD: Biopsy for genomic study & PDX development (selected patients) PD: progressive disease PDX: patient-derived xenograft PIs: Goldberg, Lilenbaum, Politi. 34 Strategies for Integrating Biomarkers Into Clinical Trial Designs for NSCLC When Viewed as a Multitude of Genomic Subsets Evolution of NSCLC Histologic Subsets Genomic Subsets Unmet needs addressed by master protocols: • How to develop drugs for uncommon-rare genotypes? • How to apply broad-based screening (NGS)? • How to achieve acceptable turnaround times for molecular testing for therapy initiation (<2 weeks)? • How to expedite the new drugbiomarker FDA approval process (companion diagnostic)? Li, Mack, Kung, Gandara. JCO. 2013. 35 “Strategies for Integrating Biomarkers Into Clinical Development of New Therapies for Lung Cancer” A Joint NCI Thoracic Malignancies Steering Committee-FDA Workshop Bethesda MD – February 2-3, 2012 • Trial Design Challenges in the Era of Biomarker-driven Trials – Innovative Statistical Designs – Challenges for Community Oncology Practice Participation – The Patient Perspective • Drug & Biomarker Co-Development in Lung Cancer – Need for Early Co-Development – Need for Improved Pre-Clinical Models With Clinical Relevance • Development of Future Lung Cancer Trials – TMSC Master Protocol Task Force in NSCLC – Biomarker-driven trial designs in both early stage adjuvant therapy & advanced-stage NSCLC – Account for inter-patient tumour heterogeneity & genomic complexity of NSCLC 36 Master Protocol Subtypes Umbrella Trials Basket Trials Single Type of Cancer: Test multiple drug-biomarker combinations Multiple Cancer Types: Test multiple drugs against single or multiple biomarkers • BATTLE • Imatinib Basket • I-SPY2 • BRAF+ • SWOG Lung MAP (S1400): adv SCCA • NCI MATCH • ALCHEMIST: early stage NSCLC • ALK Master Protocol: ALK+ NSCLC 37 ALCHEMIST Trial Schema Non-Match: Phase III trial of nivolumab vs placebo X 1 year after any adj tx (EGFR & ALK testing performed by RGI) 38 ALK Master Protocol: Proposed Trial Design Control Arm (Criz.) Control Arm (Criz.) Crizotinib ALK positive NSCLC Treatment Naïve patients Central Confirmation ALK NGS Drug A Drug B Drug C Drug A To B Drug A To C Drug A To Criz. Cross Over PD NGS PD NGS New Biopsy Drug B to A Drug B To C Drug B to Criz. Archived tissue From S Malik: NCI. Drug Criz. To A Drug Criz. To B Drug Criz. To C New Biopsy Drug C 39 Rationale for “MASTER PROTOCOL” in SCCA • SCCA represents an unmet need Therapeutic targets SCCA-TCGA 2012 • Candidate molecular targets are available from results of TCGA & other studies, identified by a biomarker • Drugs (investigational) are now available for many of these targets • Trials can be designed to allow testing & registration of multiple new drug-biomarker combinations at the same time (“MASTER PROTOCOL” concept) • Result of this concept is Lung-MAP (S1400), activated in June 2014 40 S1400 Lung-MAP Protocol: A Unique Private-Public Partnership Within the NCTN Alliance SWOG NCI-C S1400 Master Protocol ECOGAcrin NRG 41 S1400: MASTER LUNG-1: Squamous Lung Cancer — 2nd-Line Therapy CT Biomarker Profiling (NGS/CLIA) Biomarker Non-Match Multiple Phase II-III Sub-studies with Rolling Opening & Closure Biomarker A TT A CT Primary Endpoint PFS/OS Biomarker Β TT B CT Primary Endpoint PFS/OS Biomarker C TT C+CT CT Primary Endpoint PFS/OS NonMatch Drug Biomarker D TT D+E E Primary Endpoint PFS/OS TT = Targeted therapy; CT = chemotherapy (docetaxel or gemcitabine); E = erlotinib. Project Chair: V. Papadimitrakopoulou Steering Committee Chair: R. Herbst SWOG Lung Chair: D. Gandara 42 LUNG-MAP (S1400): Squamous Lung Cancer — 2nd-Line Therapy Common Broad Platform CLIA Biomarker Profiling◊ CDK4/6 M: CCND1, CCND2, CCND3, cdk4 ampl PI3K M:PIK3CA mut GDC-0032 CT Endpoint PFS/OS PD-0332991 CT Endpoint PFS/OS FGFR M: FGFR ampl, mut, fusion AZD4547 CT Non-match CT Endpoint PFS/OS Anti-PD-L1: MEDI4736 HGF M:c-Met Expr AMG102+E E Endpoint PFS/OS CT = chemotherapy (docetaxel or gemcitabine); E = erlotinib. ◊ Archival FFPE tumour, fresh CNB if needed. Project Chair: V. Papadimitrakopoulou Steering Committee Chair: R. Herbst SWOG Lung Chair: D. Gandara 43 LUNG-MAP (S1400): Squamous Lung Cancer— 2nd-Line Therapy Assign Treatment Arm by Marker Patient Registration Consent Investigational Targeted Therapy Randomisation Tumour Collection Genomic Screening (FM one) <2 weeks New Tumour Biopsy (if needed) Treatment Interim Endpoint: PFS NGS/IHC (Foundation Medicine) Primary Endpoint: OS Standard-of-Care Therapy • Organisers: NCI-TMSC, FDA, FNIH, FOCR • Participants: Entire North American Lung Intergroup (SWOG, Alliance, ECOG-Acrin, NRG, NCI-Canada) • Screening: up to 1,000 patients/year • With 4-6 arms open simultaneously, anticipate a hit rate ≈65% in matching a patient with a drug/biomarker arm 44 Squamous Lung Master Protocol Clinical Trial Assay Based on Foundation Medicine NGS Platform Foundation Medicine NGS test platform (CLIA/CAP) 1) DNA extraction Classification rules 2) Library construction: 3) Analysis pipeline selected cancer genes Illumina HiSeq 2500 4) Master protocol CTA • Based on FM T5 NGS platform • Implemented as “mask” of T5 content and classification rules on called alterations • Rules determine biomarker positive/negative status Classification rules (preliminary) Non-NGS biomarkers: Supplementary assays Non-match arm MET IHC (+) All assays (-) MET pathway inhibitor Anti-PD-L1 Ab PIK3CA mutation CCND1 amplification or CDKN2A/B deletion, and RB1 wild-type FGFR1/2/3/4 amplification, mutation or fusion PI3K inhibitor CDK4/6 inhibitor FGFR inhibitor 45 Biomarker Trial Design Based on Comprehensive Genomic Profiling 60% 50% Screen success rate: up to ≈80% of patients, depending on biomarkers selected PIK3R1/2, TSC1/2, AKT1/2 5% CCND3 amp CCNE1 amp CDK6 amp STK11 loss 46% 4% CCND2 amp 40% % of lung squamous 30% patients with alteration FBXW7 loss CCND1 amp PTEN loss 26% 26% PIK3CA amp CDKN2A/B loss 20% 10% 25% 5% PIK3CA mutation 47% 4% FGFR3 amp FGFR1 amp/ mutation 0% PI3K/AKT/mTOR lead candidate biomarkers Cell Cycle FGFR additional potential biomarkers 18% 46 What Are the Statistical Assumptions? Lung-MAP Sub-studies Phase 2 Phase 3 Approximate Time of Sample Analysis Size Approximate Time of Analysis Prevalence Estimate Approximate Sample Size 56.0% 170 GNE+ 5.6% 78 FMI+ 8.0% 152 19 400 72 S1400C 11.7% 124 11 312 45 S1400D 9.0% 112 11 302 53 S1400E 16.0% 144 9 326 37 Sub-study ID S1400A 8 380 21 S1400B 288 47 Is Lung-MAP Self-sustaining? Activation of Lung-MAP Within 1st Month (July 2014) 48 LUNG-MAP (S1400): Squamous Lung Cancer — 2nd-Line Therapy Common Broad Platform CLIA Biomarker Profiling◊ PI3K M:PIK3CA mut GDC-0032 CT Endpoint PFS/OS CDK4/6 M: CCND1, CCND2, CCND3, cdk4 ampl PD-0332991 CT Endpoint PFS/OS CT Non-match FGFR M: FGFR ampl, mut, fusion AZD4547 CT Endpoint PFS/OS Anti-PD-L1: MEDI4736 HGF M:c-Met Expr AMG102+E E Endpoint PFS/OS CT = chemotherapy (docetaxel or gemcitabine); E = erlotinib. ◊ Archival FFPE tumour, fresh CNB if needed. Project Chair: V. Papadimitrakopoulou Steering Committee Chair: R. Herbst SWOG Lung Chair: D. Gandara 49 50 Is Lung-MAP “Self-sustaining”? Lung MAP is designed to be adaptable with changes in the therapeutic landscape • Example: recent approval of nivolumab in 2nd-line therapy of squamous lung cancer – Lung MAP modified to be 2nd-line and beyond (ie, some substudies are now 2nd3rd line, others 2nd-line) – One planned immunotherapy combination substudy is 2nd- line with nivolumab control arm – Another planned substudy is 3rd-line after nivolumab PD 51 Is Lung-MAP “Self-sustaining”? • New Targets-New Opportunities – PARP – mTORC1/mTORC2 (RICTOR) – PI3K/PTEN – Wee-1 kinase – ATR – VEGFR2 – TRK – Drug combinations (Immunotherapies) Hammerman et al. Nature. 2012. 52 SUPPORTING COOPERATIVE GROUPS: ALLIANCE Everett Vokes, M.D. University of Chicago Medical Center NCIC-CTG Glenwood Goss, M.D. University of Ottawa ECOG/ACRIN Suresh Ramalingam, M.D. Emory University NRG Jeff Bradley, M.D. Washington University School of SUPPORTING COOPERATIVE GROUPS: ALLIANCE Everett Vokes, M.D. University of Chicago Medical Center NCIC-CTG Glenwood Goss, M.D. University of Ottawa ECOG/ACRIN Suresh Ramalingam, M.D. Emory University NRG Jeff Bradley, M.D. Washington University School of Medicine 53 Discussion: The role of translational research in NSCLC Facilitated by Dr. David Gandara 55 The Role and Responsibilities of a Principal Investigator (PI) Nick Pavlakis, MBBS, MMed (Clin Epi), PhD 57 The Principal Investigator (PI) of a Study: Semantics • Chief or Lead Investigator (CI) – overall study lead • Principal Investigator (PI) – sometimes used to refer to overall study lead, but here refers to PI at an individual site, as “The person responsible” for the conduct of the clinical trial at a trial site 58 Who Is a Principal Investigator (PI)*? • “The person responsible” for the conduct of the clinical trial at a trial site. If a trial is conducted by a team of individuals at a trial site, the investigator is the responsible leader of the team and is usually called the principal investigator – If a trial does not have a sponsor, the PI is the Sponsor-Investigator, as in IITs • Any individual member of the clinical trial team designated and supervised by the investigator at a trial site to perform critical trial-related procedures and/or to make important trial-related decisions (eg, associates, residents, fellows are, under the regulations, considered sub-investigators, not PIs or coinvestigators) *Source: FDA’s Official Guidance on Good Clinical Practice. Available at: http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/Guidances/ucm073122.pdf. Accessed June10, 2015. Please note that the respective guidance or provisions may vary for other countries or regions. 59 Qualifications and Agreements for PIs • Qualified by education, training, and experience to assume proper conduct of the trial • Aware of and complies with GCP* • Familiar with the use of investigational product(s) • Interested in the scientific aspects of the trial • Good clinical practice (GCP)* is an international ethical and scientific quality standard for designing, conducting, recording, and reporting trials that involve the participation of human subjects • GCP compliance provides public assurance that the rights, safety, and well-being of trial subjects are protected, consistent with the principles that have their origin in the Declaration of Helsinki, and that the clinical trial data are credible *FDA’s Official Guidance on Good Clinical Practice. 60 Good Clinical Practice (GCP) and ICH • International quality standard that is provided by ICH, an international body that defines standards, which governments can transpose into regulations for clinical trials involving human subjects • ICH refers to the International Conference on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use, a project that brings together the regulatory authorities of Europe, Japan, and the US, and experts from the pharmaceutical industry in the three regions to discuss scientific and technical aspects of pharmaceutical product registration – ICH guidelines adopted as law in some countries, used as a guide by US FDA 61 Declaration of Helsinki • Declaration of Helsinki is a set of ethical principles regarding human experimentation developed for the medical community by the World Medical Association (WMA) • The cornerstone modern document on human research ethics • Origin: June 1964, Helsinki, Finland – Seven revisions since (most recently at the General Assembly in October 2013) and two clarifications – Length increased from 11 paragraphs in 1964 to 37 in the 2013 version • Not used by all countries due to controversy over wording in new versions – refer to GCP and local guidelines • History – The Nuremberg Code was the first set of research ethics principles for human experimentation. It resulted from the verdict of the Nuremberg Trials (1946 -1949) held at the end of World War II, focusing on doctors involved in the human experiments in concentration camps http://www.wma.net/en/30publications/10policies/b3/. 62 Declaration of Helsinki – Basic Principles • Respect for – – – – The individual Their right to self-determination Their right to make informed decisions Regarding participation in research Initially and during the course of the research – Protection of the individual’s health and their rights • The investigator's duty is solely to the patient, and while there is always a need for research, the subject's welfare must always take precedence over the interests of science and society, and ethical considerations must always take precedence over laws and regulations http://www.wma.net/en/30publications/10policies/b3/. 63 Qualifications and Agreements for PIs (cont’d) • Must have adequate time to: – Discuss, read and approve protocol – Identify and recruit subjects – Properly assess and follow subjects • Must have adequate personnel and resources to conduct the trial • Must be able to meet the recruitment targets • Must conduct the trial in compliance with the protocol without deviation 64 General Responsibilities of the PI • An investigator is responsible for – Ensuring that an investigation is conducted according to ICH guidelines – Signing an investigator statement; study protocol, IRB requirements, all applicable federal, state, and institutional regulations – Controlling all drugs/agents/devices under investigation – Protecting the rights, safety, and welfare of subjects under the investigator’s care 65 General Responsibilities of the PI (cont’d) • Maintaining a list of research team members to whom trial-related duties have been delegated • Keeping research team members well informed about the trial at all times • Permitting monitoring, auditing, and inspection by sponsors and regulatory authorities 66 Consent of Subjects • An investigator must obtain the informed consent of each human subject to whom the drug/agent/device is distributed – Note: “informed consent” is more than handing the subject a form to sign. It is a process – Institutional Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) Example: Common 2-stage approach i. Discuss treatment options and trial in first meeting and provide Patient Information and Consent form (PIC) OR provide PIC prior to meeting in patients referred specifically for the trial ii. Meet to go over any questions related to the treatment or the protocol (i.e. complete “informed” aspect) followed by written consent 67 Investigational Agents and the Role of the PI 68 Control of Investigational Drug/Agent/Device • Responsibility for investigational product(s) accountability at the trial site(s) rests with the investigator/institution • The PI can delegate investigational product(s) accountability at the trial site(s) to an appropriate pharmacist or another appropriate individual under their supervision – Drug storage, accurate records, inventory • An investigator shall distribute the drug/agent/device only to subjects under the investigator’s personal supervision or under the supervision of a subinvestigator responsible to the investigator • The investigator shall not supply the investigational drug/agent/device to any person not authorised by the investigator to receive it 69 Investigator Record-keeping and Record Retention 70 Investigator Record-keeping and Record Retention • Case Report Form (CRF): a printed or electronic document designed to record protocol-required information on each subject • Source Documents: may include hospital records, clinical/office charts, lab reports, subject diaries, etc • Investigator should ensure the accuracy, completeness, and timeliness of data in CRFs • Data in the CRFs must be consistent with and verifiable with the source documents • Correct data in the CRF by striking out and initialing – Do not use “white out” – Do not scribble out words 71 Investigator Record-keeping and Record Retention (cont’d) • Case Histories – Prepare and maintain adequate and accurate case histories that record all observations and other data pertinent to the study on each individual distributed to or employed as a control on the protocol • CRF, supporting data, signed consent forms, medical records, progress notes, hospital charts, nurses notes – Case histories should document that informed consent was obtained prior to the subject’s participation…this is in addition to the consent form • “Note to file” to clarify discrepancies or update information 72 Investigator Record-keeping and Record Retention (cont’d) • Disposition of drug/agent/device – Maintain adequate records of the disposition of all drugs/agents/devices – Dates, quantity, subject use, shipping, storage, return/destruction • Record Retention – Retain records for a period of 2 years following the date a drug/agent/device is approved for the indication in which it is being investigated or if no application is filed/approved, 2 years after the investigation is discontinued – Note sponsor and local regulatory requirements For example, in Australia trial documents must be kept accessible in storage for 15 years 73 Maintenance of a Study Binder for Every Protocol • List of all study personnel: – Their initials and signatures – Their qualifications and responsibilities – Dates of their participation • Up-to-date, signed, and dated CVs for staff who: – Undertake consent and assessments of subjects – Make entries in case report forms (CRFs) • Up-to-date licenses of laboratories providing test results and their normal ranges 74 Investigator Reports • Progress Reports – Sending reports to the sponsor as required by the protocol – Sponsor-investigators are required to submit annual reports to FDA on the progress of the clinical investigation • Safety Reports – Promptly report to the sponsor any adverse effect that may reasonably be regarded as caused by, or probably caused by, the drug/agent/device – Sponsor-investigators are required to report adverse effects that are both serious and unexpected and/or deaths directly to FDA 75 Investigator Reports (cont’d) • Final Report – Provide the sponsor/FDA (for sponsor-investigators) with an adequate report shortly after completion of the investigation • Financial Disclosure Reports – Provide sponsor with sufficient accurate and current financial information to allow for accurate certification/disclosure as required 76 Investigator Reports (cont’d) • New Information – New information available during the course of the trial must be passed along to the IRB/IEC – If the new information is relevant to the subject’s participation, consent form must be updated and approved by the IRB/IEC – For subjects already on study, provide the new information at their next visit or sooner if there is a risk to the patient or if consent is likely to be revoked – Current subjects should be “re-consented” with the new IRB-approved consent form – Delay accrual until IRB/IEC approval of new information 77 Investigator Reports (cont’d) • Adverse Event/Safety Reporting – Adverse Event (AE): any untoward medical occurrence in a trial subject, which does not necessarily have a causal relationship with the study treatment – Serious Adverse Event (SAE): any untoward medical occurrence that meets one or more of the following: Results in death Is life-threatening Requires inpatient hospitalisation or prolongation of an existing hospitalisation Is a congenital anomaly or birth defect Is a medically significant event, for any reason; these might include pregnancy, cancer, overdose, etc 78 Investigator Reports (cont’d) • Adverse Event/Safety Reporting - Questions to Ask – Is the event “unexpected”? Reported in the Investigator’s Brochure Known events that have become more frequent or severe – Is the event treatment-related? Reasonable causal relationship to be determined based upon prior experience with treatment If an association cannot be ruled out, then it should be considered to have a reasonable relationship Not-related, unlikely, possible, probable, definite 79 Clinician Conflict of Interest 80 The Clinician-Investigator’s Conflict of Interest • The clinician-investigator has a dual allegiance – To study/community – To patient/subject • This creates a (legitimate) conflict of interest • It is important to be aware of this tension • Other conflicts of interest – Financial – Academic Miller et al. JAMA. 1998;280:1449. 81 The Clinician-Investigator’s Conflict of Interest (cont’d) • Conflict between your duty to accrue and complete the study – meet contractual obligation – vs duty to offer best advice to your individual patient • Duty of care to patient to discuss all options – “Informed” consent • Minimising study vs patient conflict – Independent clinicians – MDT – Disease/study team 82 Example of Conflict • Placebo-controlled trials where evidence has shifted practice such that use of placebo can be questioned • Variations in accepted practice for use of standard therapy in control arms • “Window of opportunity” trials • How to avoid clinician conflict? – Informed consent process should include unbiased discussion of all options – There should be genuine clinical equipoise around the clinical question – Variations in practice can be accounted for in trial protocol (“clinicians’ choice” reference therapy, stratification by centres, regions or country) – Open-label drug access at disease progression in placebo arm or mandatory crossover 83 Case: 1997 • HIV-infected pregnant women enrolled for anti-retroviral therapy to prevent neonatal infection in Central Africa • Randomised to AZT vs placebo • Even though an NIH-funded randomised, controlled trial, it demonstrated in 1994 that AZT (zidovudine) reduced transmission from mother-to-infant by approximately two-thirds Mishra R. Placebos break taboo in cancer drug tests. Boston Globe. A1, July 4, 2004. 84 85 ASCO Policy on Conflict of Interest Relating to Trials and Pharmaceutical Companies Implications for Presentation/Publication http://jco.ascopubs.org/cgi/doi/10.1200/JCO.2013.49.5002. 86 What Makes Clinical Research Ethical? 87 Requirements for Ethical Conduct in a Clinical Trial JAMA. 2000;283(20):2701-2711. doi:10.1001/jama.283.20.2701. 88 Social or Scientific Value • Study must ask an important question – Valuable for improving health and/or for basic scientific knowledge – Research is unethical if question is trivial, has already been answered, etc 89 Scientific Validity • Even if the question is important, the study is unethical if the methods are not likely to answer it – – – – – Not feasible Poor measures Inadequate sample size Poor statistical analysis Biased reporting (or non-reporting) 90 Fair Subject Selection • Historically, risky or non-beneficial research has disproportionately enrolled vulnerable populations – Ethnic minorities – Low socio-economic status – Mentally incapacitated, institutionalised • Conversely, beneficial research should not selectively enroll privileged subjects 91 Summary: Your Role as Study PI • The buck stops with you – You are in control and responsible • Know the protocol • Know, support and ensure you can trust the delegated members of your research team – Regular meetings, updates – Establish structures for optimal trial conduct (eg, trials clinic, fellows, study teams) • Be diligent in your duties with respect to ICH/GCP and study conduct • Always be cognisant of the patient – protect their health and rights * This is not a full summary of your obligations when acting as a PI for a Boehringer Ingelheim trial. Please refer to your Clinical Trial Agreement and other relevant materials provided by BI. 92 Discussion: The role and responsibilities of a PI Facilitated by Dr. Nick Pavlakis 94 BIOSTATISTICS IN CLINICAL TRIALS Shu-Fang Hsu Schmitz University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Biostatistics in clinical trials Planning Conduct Analyses Reporting Scenario A: Standard R B: Experimental CONSORT 2010 Statement: Updated guidelines for reporting parallel-group randomised trials Biostatistics-related items • Sample size – Primary endpoint(s) – Null and alternative hypotheses – Effect size – Type I and II errors – Allocation ratio – Correlated data – Interim analyses and stopping guidelines • Randomisation • Statistical methods • Outcomes and estimation Schulz KF, et al. BMC Med 2010;8:18. Sample size Primary endpoint(s) • Number of primary endpoints Usually one primary endpoint • Type of endpoint – Binary endpoint (e.g. Yes/No) – Categorical endpoint (e.g. none/mild/severe/serious) – Continuous endpoint (e.g. PSA value) • Normal distribution (bell shape) or not – Time-to-event endpoint (e.g. progression-free survival time) • Affects choice of statistical approach PSA = prostate-specific antigen. Sample size Null and alternative hypotheses • Intend to show inequality (2-sided) Alt.: Effect of Trt B is different from Trt A Minimum difference of clinical relevance B A B Null: Effect of Trt B is not different from Trt A 0 • Intend to show superiority (1-sided) 0.5 1 Alt.: Effect of Trt B is better than Trt A Null: Effect of Trt B is not better than Trt A • Intend to show non-inferiority (1-sided) Alt.: Effect of Trt B is not much worse than Trt A Null: Effect of Trt B is much worse than Trt A 0 Alt. = alternative; Trt = treatment. Non-inferiority margin: Maximum difference of clinical irrelevance A B 0.5 1 Sample size Effect size • A measure to describe between-treatment difference – Absolute difference: Trt B – Trt A • Abs. difference = 0 Trt B = Trt A • Abs. difference > 0 Trt B > Trt A • Abs. difference < 0 Trt B < Trt A – Relative difference: Trt B/Trt A e.g. hazard ratio • Rel. difference = 1 Trt B = Trt A • Rel. difference > 1 Trt B > Trt A • Rel. difference < 1 Trt B < Trt A • Effect size for sample size – Minimum difference of clinical relevance – Maximum difference of clinical irrelevance Abs. = absolute; Rel. = relative. Sample size Type I and II errors • Type I error – False-positive rate – We cannot completely eliminate such random error – Lower type I error Larger sample size – Usually 5% e.g. if, in fact, Trt B has the same effect as Trt A, we have 5% chance to wrongly conclude that Trt B is different from Trt A The declared difference is not always true Conclusion Total No difference Difference Difference False negative = Type II error True positive = Power 100% No difference True negative False positive = Type I error 100% Truth Sample size Type I and II errors • Type II error – False-negative rate = 1 – power, for a given effect size – We cannot completely eliminate such random error – Lower type II error Higher power Larger sample size – Usually 10‒20% type II error (or 80‒90% power) e.g. if, in fact, Trt B is different from Trt A, we have 20% chance to wrongly conclude that Trt B is the same as Trt A The true difference is not always detected Conclusion Total No difference Difference Difference False negative = Type II error True positive = Power 100% No difference True negative False positive = Type I error 100% Truth Sample size Allocation ratio • Equal allocation (1:1) The total sample size is smallest Most efficient • Unequal allocation – Less efficient, i.e. larger total sample size – Might be more attractive for patients e.g. smaller proportion to the control arm with placebo • Example sample sizes nA / nB nA nB nA + nB 0.5 94 187 281 1 124 124 248 1.5 155 103 258 2 186 93 279 Sample size Correlated data (Special cases not covered in this CONSORT statement) • Sources of correlation – Repeated measurements i.e. same endpoint assessed at different time points and all data are included in a single analysis – Crossover i.e. each pt receives different treatments at different time periods – Matched pairs e.g. different treatments for left and right hands – Cluster randomisation e.g. randomise hospitals to different treatments, all patients of a given hospital receive the same treatment, outcome is measured at patient level • Affects choice of statistical approach pt = patient. Sample size Interim analyses and stopping guidelines Per-arm sample size n1 n2 (If continues) .......... nK=n (If continues) 1st interim analysis 2nd interim analysis Final (Kth) analysis Sample size Interim analyses and stopping guidelines • Number of interim analyses More interim analyses Larger final sample size • Timing of interim analyses • Allowing early stop for what? – For benefit only: Stop if already see a large treatment effect – For futility only: Stop if the chance to detect treatment effect is low – For both: Stop if either benefit or futility criterion is reached • Stopping boundary Easier to stop early Larger final sample size Sample size Interim analyses and stopping guidelines • Stopping boundary Example: 3 analyses, overall type I error 0.05 Final boundary close to 0.05 0.05 0.04 Stopping boundary for p-value 0.03 Easy to stop early Final boundary much smaller than 0.05 0.02 0.01 Difficult to stop early 0 1 2 Analysis number 3 Final analysis Sample size Interim analyses and stopping guidelines • Stopping boundary Also other less extreme boundaries 0.05 Final sample size: 168 169 171 0.04 Stopping boundary for p-value 176 0.03 193 0.02 0.01 0 1 2 Analysis number 3 Sample size Interim analyses and stopping guidelines • Independent data monitoring committee (IDMC) – Avoid potential data-driven changes resulting in bias – Members are independent of the trial, including medical experts of disciplines involved and statistician(s) – Based on (un)blinded interim results, give sponsor a recommendation: • Stop the trial • Continue the trial with some modifications • Continue the trial without modifications CONSORT 2010 Statement: Updated guidelines for reporting parallel-group randomised trials Biostatistics-related items • Sample size • Randomisation – Purpose and requirements – Types of randomisation • Statistical methods • Outcomes and estimation Schulz KF, et al. BMC Med 2010;8:18. Randomisation Purpose and requirements • Purpose Ensure that patients assigned to different treatment arms are balanced for both known and unknown factors, which could influence their response to treatment Reduce bias • Requirements – Avoid systematic bias – Unpredictable Randomisation Types of randomisation • Simple randomisation – Restriction: No – Example: A B B A A A A A B A – Advantages: • Simple to implement • Straightforward for analyses – Disadvantage: Cannot guarantee allocation ratio Randomisation Types of randomisation • Block randomisation – Restriction: Yes, by block size – Example: 1:1 ratio, block size=4 6 admissible blocks 1=AABB, 2=ABAB, 3=ABBA, 4=BBAA, 5=BABA, 6=BAAB The randomisation list is a sequence of admissible blocks in random order Block number Treatment allocation 4 3 6 1 BBAA ABBA BAAB AABB Randomisation Types of randomisation • Block randomisation – Advantage: Allocation ratio is guaranteed within each full block – Disadvantage: Introduce correlation between treatment arms • Ordinary two-group tests might be biased • Might require special test or adjusted analysis – Considerations • Block size too small Predictable • Block size too large Risk of incomplete block Allocation ratio not met A A B A B A • Use different block sizes within a trial B B A B Randomisation Types of randomisation • Stratified randomisation – Restriction: Yes, by stratification factors – Example: 2 stratification factors, 4 combinations, Separate randomisation lists for the 4 combinations Previous treatment Stage Goal: Similar distributions between treatment arms with respect to each stratification factor No Yes I Comb 1 Comb 2 II Comb 3 Comb 4 Factor Stage Previous Trt Stratum Arm A Arm B I 25% 27% II 75% 73% No 33% 30% Yes 67% 70% Randomisation Types of randomisation • Stratified randomisation – Advantages • Take stratification factors into account • Try to maintain the allocation ratio within each combination – Disadvantages • Multiple randomisation lists • Cannot accommodate too many factors • Might require adjusted analysis – Considerations • Each list can be generated using either simple or block randomisation • Only take important prognostic factors into account as stratification factors • Keep sample size nr combinations ≥5 Randomisation Types of randomisation • Minimisation – Restriction: Yes, by stratification factors Trt A – Example: 3 stratification factors Stage Already 16 patients Next (17th) patient is stage I, not pretreated, biomarker negative Goal: Similar distributions between treatment arms with respect to each stratification factor Prev. = previous; Neg = negative; Pos = positive. Trt B I 3 2 II 5 6 No 3 5 Yes 5 3 Neg 4 4 Pos 3 5 Sum 10 Prev. Trt Biomarker < 11 Trt A to the next pt Randomisation Types of randomisation • Minimisation – Advantages • Can take more stratification factors into account than stratified randomisation • Try to maintain the allocation ratio within each stratum of each factor – Disadvantages • • • • • Dynamic allocation, no prepared randomisation lists Deterministic nature, not really random process Introduce correlation between treatment arms Ordinary two-group tests might be biased Might require special test or adjusted analysis – Considerations • Only take important prognostic factors as stratification factors • Can build in a random element to reduce predictability CONSORT 2010 Statement: Updated guidelines for reporting parallel-group randomised trials Biostatistics-related items • Sample size • Randomisation • Statistical methods – Primary and secondary outcomes – Multiplicity – Subgroup analyses – Adjusted analyses – Missing values • Outcomes and estimation Schulz KF, et al. BMC Med 2010;8:18. Statistical methods Primary and secondary outcomes • For primary outcome – Effect size or non-inferiority margin is pre-specified and used for sample size calculation – Statistical significance Clinical relevance • For secondary outcomes – Effect size or non-inferiority margin is usually NOT pre-specified and NOT used for sample size calculation – Statistical significance Clinical relevance (retrospectively defined) Caution in interpretation! Statistical methods Multiplicity Example Total number tests Indiv. type I error 1 5% 95% 5.00% 2 5% (95%)2 = 95%95% = 90.25% 9.75% 3 5% (95%)3 = 85.74% 14.26% 4 5% (95%)4 = 81.45% 18.55% Prob. all tests reach correct conclusions There are statistical approaches to control overall type I error Indiv. = individual; Prob. = probability. Overall type I error Do 4 tests, each at 5% type I error Overall, 18.55% chance at least one test conclusion is wrong! Statistical methods Multiplicity • Problem – More than one statistical test Increases overall type I error – Want to control overall type I error for more than one test • Sources of multiplicity – Perform several tests for different endpoints – For an endpoint, perform several tests at different times, e.g. interim analyses – For an endpoint, perform several tests using different approaches – For an endpoint, perform several tests in different subgroups – In a 3-arm trial, perform 3 pairwise tests (A vs B, A vs C, B vs C) for a given endpoint Statistical methods Subgroup analyses • Predefined subgroup analyses – Number of analyses is known in advance – Results of all analyses are reported – Readers can better judge the credibility of the results, taking multiple testing into account • Subgroup analyses not predefined – Data-driven, fishing for significance! – Tendency for biased reporting, i.e. only significant results – Total number of performed analyses is unknown – Readers cannot judge the credibility of the results – Purely exploratory • Sufficient sample size within each subgroup Statistical methods Adjusted analyses • Take factors (e.g. prognostic factors, stratification factors, etc.) other than treatment group into account in the analysis • As the primary analysis or sensitivity analysis for an outcome • Example statistical approaches: Regressions, stratified analysis, etc. Statistical methods Missing values • Missing at random? – If ‘missingness’ is related to the outcome measure Missing is not at random e.g. Patients with very bad performance status tend to have missing values for quality of life questionnaire Analysis using all available data is biased Other analysis approaches are needed Statistical methods Missing values • Missing at random? Can you be sure? – Example Complete (sorted) data 12 19 32 39 45 55 81 95 97 98 Mean=57.3 97 98 Mean=67.8 95 NA NA Mean=47.3 95 97 98 Mean=59.9 Available data set 1 (missing not at random) NA NA 32 39 45 55 81 95 Available data set 2 (missing not at random) 12 19 32 39 45 55 81 Available data set 3 (missing at random) 12 NA = not applicable. 19 32 NA 45 NA 81 Statistical methods Missing values • Analyses using available data – Results might be biased due to missing not at random – Results might be biased because the balance in known and unknown factors introduced by randomisation might be destroyed – Loss of efficiency • In a univariate analysis UPN = unique patient number; CR = complete response; PR = partial response; SD = stable disease. UPN Outcome Age 1 CR 90 2 PR 80 3 SD Missing 4 SD 70 5 CR 80 6 PR Missing Statistical methods Missing values • Analyses using available data – Loss of efficiency • In a multivariate analysis UPN Outcome Age Stage Pack year 1 CR 90 3 Missing 2 PR 80 Missing 25 3 SD Missing 4 40 4 SD 70 1 35 5 CR 80 Missing 30 6 PR Missing 2 20 CONSORT 2010 Statement: Updated guidelines for reporting parallel-group randomised trials Biostatistics-related items • Sample size • Randomisation • Statistical methods • Outcomes and estimation – Point and interval estimates – Confidence interval vs p-value – Caution for final analysis after interim analyses Schulz KF, et al. BMC Med 2010;8:18. Outcomes and estimation Point and interval estimates • Point estimate Mean or median? Which one is more representative? • Interval estimate – Wider interval Larger variation Lower precision 5 4 3 2 1 0 Mean: 4 95% CI: 3.1–4.9 Median: 4 IQR: 3–5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 5 4 – CI: Suitable under (approx) 3 2 normal distribution, requires standard deviation 1 0 – IQR: 1st quartile – 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3rd quartile, 25th percentile – 75th percentile CI = confidence interval; IQR = inter-quartile range. Mean: 3.1 95% CI: 1.9–4.2 Median: 2 IQR: 1.8–4.3 Outcomes and estimation CI vs p-value • CI examples – Alt. hypothesis: Inequality (2-sided) – Type I error: 5% 2-sided 95% CI – Effect size: Absolute difference between treatment arms – Minimum difference of clinical relevance: 2 6 Absolute difference 4 1) The CI does not contain 0 Reject null hypothesis, i.e. statistical significance p-value < Type I error 5% 2 2) The width of CI provides hints on precision 0 3) The estimated effect size is likely to be greater than the minimum difference of clinical relevance Outcomes and estimation CI vs p-value • CI examples 6 4 Absolute difference 2 0 -2 Clinically relevant: Yes ? ? Statistically significant: Yes Yes No Outcomes and estimation CI vs p-value • Information provided by CI and p-value CI p-value Statistical significance Yes Yes Clinical relevance (if pre-specified) Yes No Precision of estimate Yes No p-value alone is not sufficient for good judgment! Outcomes and estimation Caution for final analysis after interim analyses • A simplified example: 3 successes in 4 patients considered promising – Without interim analyses, the chance of a promising result = 5/16 Outcomes and estimation Caution for final analysis after interim analyses • A simplified example: 3 successes in 4 patients considered promising – With an interim analysis after 2 patients Stopping rule: If 2 failures , then stop The chance of promising results after 4 patients = 5/12 > 5/16 Final p-value and CI need to be adjusted Outcomes and estimation Caution for final analysis after interim analyses • The threshold for p-value to declare statistical significance might be lower than the type I error e.g. a p-value of 0.05 might not be sufficient for significance 0.0496 0.0483 0.0451 0.05 0.04 Stopping boundary for p-value 0.0373 0.03 0.0221 0.02 0.01 0 1 2 Analysis number 3 Summary Biostatistics in Clinical Trials • Well designed and properly executed randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provide the most reliable evidence on the efficacy of healthcare interventions • Different statistical methods apply when the endpoint is discrete (frequency per category), continuous (measurements), or time-toevent (survival analysis) • Statistical analysis requires careful consideration of the study objectives and the nature of the endpoints • Complicating factors include multiplicity, subgroup analysis and missing data • Considerations for how to present trial outcomes and estimations are point and interval estimates, the use of confidence interval vs. p-values and caution for final analysis after interim analyses. Discussion: Biostatistics in clinical trials Facilitated by Prof. Shu-Fang Hsu Schmitz 141 COFFEE BREAK Breakout Session 1 Breakout Format • Please go to the room assigned to your group on the next slide for Breakout Session 1 – Group A: Phase I and Phase II trial design in oncology – Dr. Shu-Fang Hsu Schmitz – Group B: good clinical practice compliance – Dr. Clifford Hall • Once the first breakout is complete, we will have a break for lunch • Following lunch, you will return to your same breakout room, but the topic and faculty will be switched for Breakout Session 2 – Group A: good clinical practice compliance – Dr. Clifford Hall – Group B: Phase I and Phase II trial design in oncology – Dr. Shu-Fang Hsu Schmitz • Following Breakout Session 2, please return to this room Day 2 Breakout Rooms: Eixample and Grácia 145 Group A: Dr. Shu-Fang Hsu Schmitz, Eixample Group B: Dr. Clifford Hall, Grácia Daniel Gagiannis Emanuela Salati Arik Schulze Cristina Daniela Micu Marie-Claire Desax Aija Geriņa-Bērziņa Michael Schumacher Erika Korobeinikova Xu Chong-Rui Pedro De Marchi Zhabina Albina Rafael Caparica Nadezhda Hamrina Joan Coves Ana Gelatti Esther Holgado Patricia Cruz Suneil Khanna Virginia Calvo Joaquín Mosquera Martinez Natalia Fernandez Krista Noonan Manuel Magalhães Barbara Melosky, David Gandara, Nick Pavlakis, Ralf Schnall, Angela Märten, Verena Zahn Thierry Le Chevalier, Rosario Garcia-Campelo, Uday Bose, Georgi Adly, Tara Regan LUNCH Breakout Session 2 Day 2 Breakout Rooms: Eixample and Grácia 149 Group A: Dr. Clifford Hall, Eixample Group B: Dr. Shu-Fang Hsu Schmitz, Grácia Daniel Gagiannis Krista Noonan Arik Schulze Cristina Daniela Micu Marie-Claire Desax Emanuela Salati Michael Schumacher Erika Korobeinikova Xu Chong-Rui Aija Geriņa-Bērziņa Zhabina Albina Rafael Caparica Nadezhda Hamrina Pedro De Marchi Ana Gelatti Esther Holgado Patricia Cruz Joan Coves Virginia Calvo Joaquín Mosquera Martinez Natalia Fernandez Suneil Khanna Manuel Magalhães Barbara Melosky, David Gandara, Nick Pavlakis, Ralf Schnall, Angela Märten, Verena Zahn Thierry Le Chevalier, Rosario Garcia-Campelo, Uday Bose, Georgi Adly, Tara Regan Evaluating Well-designed vs Poorlydesigned Randomized Trials David R. Gandara, MD University of California, Davis Comprehensive Cancer Center 151 Evaluating Good vs Poorly Designed Randomized Clinical Trials The Good, The Bad and the Ugly Randomized Clinical Trials: The Basics Who, What, Where, Why, When and more • • • • • • Why do you want to do the study? Who do you want to study? How are you going to study them? What is the study design & primary study endpoint? Where are you going to conduct the study? When do you want to look at interim results, if at all? Randomized Clinical Trials: The Basics (cont’d) • Why do you want to do the study? – What is the hypothesis? – Will the results change SOC or lead to definitive trials? • Who do you want to study? – What patient population? – “All comer” or Selected/Enriched? – What stratifications (for prognostic groups)? • How are you going to study them? – Comparison of different treatments? (or against BSC) • QOL or Comparative Effectiveness? Randomized Clinical Trials: The Basics (cont’d) • What is the study design & primary study endpoint? – Randomized Phase II, Phase II/III or Phase III? • How big a patient sample size needed to address the hypothesis? – If Phase II, new treatment vs SOC or “pick the winner” – Primary Endpoint: Response, PFS, OS or Other (QOL)) • Where are you going to conduct the study? – Single institution, multi-site in your country or Global • If Global: Will there be issues of population-related pharmacogenomics? • When do you want to look at interim results, if at all? – Planned interim analysis? – Is the study a Phase II/III with “go-no go” decision? Example: QUARTZ Trial of Whole Brain Radiotherapy vs Optimal Supportive Care for NSCLC patients with brain metastases (ASCO 2015) Good, Bad or UGLY? Whole brain radiotherapy for brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer: Quality of life and overall survival results from the UK MRC QUARTZ trial PM Mulvenna, MG Nankivell, R Barton, C Faivre-Finn, P Wilson, B Moore, E McColl, I Brisbane, D Ardron, B Sydes, C Pugh, T Holt, N Bayman, S Morgan, C Lee, K Waite, RJ Stephens, MKB Parmar, RE Langley Brain Metastases and NSCLC • After radical treatment of primary Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC), the brain remains a frequent and early site of distant relapse, affecting up to 40% of patients • Patients with NSCLC and brain metastases fare poorly even if irradiated • Median survival remains poor – RTOG RPA prognostic classes – RPA I 7.1 months – RPA II 4.2 months all patients received WBRT; 57% NSCLC – RPA III 2.3 months • In the face of modest prognosis, how do we ensure optimal quality of life? • In spite of lack of randomised, controlled data, whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) plus steroids standard care QUARTZ Trial Randomised Controlled Non-Inferiority Design March 2007- August 2014 Histologically proven NSCLC with brain metastases – non-resectable and unsuitable for stereotactic radiosurgery Control Arm: Optimal Supportive Care Dexamethasone + Whole Brain Radiotherapy 20Gy in 5 daily # Primary outcome quality adjusted life years (QALYS) R Secondary outcomes overall survival symptom scores Investigational Arm: Optimal Supportive Care Dexamethasone Main Inclusion Criteria Pragmatism, Inclusivity • Histologically proven primary Non Small Cell Lung Cancer • CT/MRI confirming brain metastases – considered inoperable or ineligible for SRS by lung/neuro-oncology Multi-Disciplinary Teams (Tumour Boards) • Previous systemic treatment allowed, at least 4 weeks prior to randomisation • Subsequent/simultaneous (extra cranial) palliative RT permitted • Subsequent systemic treatment permitted at clinician’s discretion • Adapted to changing landscape Statistical Design • • • • • Non-inferiority design Aiming to exclude >1 week reduction in QALYs with omission of WBRT 80% power Sample size re-assessed in 2009 following poor recruitment Recalculated independently of results from interim analyses Patients WBRT QALY HR Onesided α Original (2006) 1036 6 weeks 1.2 2.5% Revised (2009) 534 5 weeks 1.25 5% Challenges “Treatment vs No Treatment” Patient / Clinician Preferences Interim Data Release Oct 2010 538 Patients: Baseline characteristics 69 UK and 3 Australian centres OSC + WBRT (N=269) OSC Alone (N=269) 66 (38 – 84) 67 (45 – 85) Age Median (range) Sex Male 58% 58% Karnofsky Performance Status ≥70 62% 62% <70 38% 38% Adenocarcinoma 55% 51% Squamous 20% 25% Large cell 3% 2% NSCLC NOS 23% 22% Yes 30% 30% Histology Solitary brain metastasis RTOG Prognostic classes (RPA) RPA Class RTOG QUART (N=1176 Z ) (N=400) RPA KPS >70 I Controlled Primary Site Age <65 years No extra cranial metastases 20% 5% RPA Neither RPA I II nor RPA III 65% 61% RPA KPS < 70 III 15% 34% Gaspar et al IJROBP 1997; 37:745-51 Baseline symptoms Symptoms shown are those affecting at least 15% of patients Tiredness Insomnia Weakness Drowsiness Mood Sight Any moderate or severe symptom OSC + WBRT (N=269) % OSC Alone (N=269) % 40% 44% 28% 35% 25% 30% 24% 27% 21% 17% 19% 17% 72% 78% Steroid use At randomisation - all patients were receiving steroids (dexamethasone) Median dose 8mg/day OSC + WBRT (N=269) % OSC Alone (N=269) % No 9% 5% Yes 91% 95% No 15% 10% Yes 85% 90% Requiring steroids during… First 4 weeks First 8 weeks Whole Brain Radiotherapy (WBRT) administration OSC + WBRT (N=269) % Dose received Time to starting WBRT 0 Gy 12% <20 Gy 6% 20 GY 82% ≤7 days 39% 8 – 14 days 40% >14 days 21% Symptoms at 4 weeks Worsened Improved OSC + WBRT OSC alone OSC + WBRT OSC alone Tiredness 33% 30% 13% 19% Drowsiness 29% 22% 9% 14% Insomnia 17% 14% 19% 22% Mood 11% 15% 15% 8% Weakness 26% 21% 10% 13% Hair Loss 33% 1% 4% 2% Overall Survival Median survival (weeks) Overall survival (all patients) 1.00 0.75 522 deaths (260 OSC+WBRT vs 262 OSC). 0.50 OSC+WB RT 9.3 weeks (7.4, 10.7) 0.25 OSC alone 8.1 weeks (7.6, 9.0) HR 1.05 (0.89, 1.26) Proportion surviving --------- OSC+WBRT ------- OSC Alone 0.00 0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 9 8 5 5 Time from randomisation (weeks) At risk OSC + WBRT 269 OSC alone 269 144 141 66 64 32 32 17 16 11 11 P-value 0.52 Better Overall survival (all patients) .8 Components of the Primary Outcome Measure OSC+WBRT OSC Alone 1.00 0.75 0.50 .4 .6 --------- OSC+WBRT ------- OSC Alone Average QoL .2 0.25 EuroQoL EQ-5D 0.00 0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 Time from randomisation (weeks) 0 At risk OSC + WBRT 269 OSC alone 269 Worse 0 Proportion surviving --------- OSC+WBRT ------- OSC Alone 144 141 66 64 32 32 17 16 Overall Survival 11 11 9 8 5 5 8 16 24 32 40 Time from randomisation (weeks) Quality of Life 48 56 .8 Primary Outcome Measure: Quality Adjusted Life Years OSC+WBRT .4 .6 --------- OSC+WBRT ------- OSC Alone OSC+WBRT 43.3 days OSC alone 41.4 days Difference -1.9 days 90% CI (Bootstrap) (-9.1, 6.6) Non-inferiority boundary .2 -7 days - 0 Average QALY Mean QALY (days) OSC Alone 0 8 16 24 32 40 Time from randomisation (weeks) QUALY 48 56 9.1 -7 OSC+WBRT better -2 0 DAYS 6.6 OSC alone better Conclusions – QUARTZ Trial Only large randomized trial of WBRT vs no WBRT for brain metastases from NSCLC Detailed QoL data can be collected in poor prognostic group WBRT does not appear to be a steroid-sparing modality Similar overall survival (9.3 weeks vs 8.1 weeks) Similar QALYs (43.3 days vs 41.4 days) The estimate of the difference in QALYs suggests WBRT provides no additional clinically significant benefit for this group of patients Randomized Clinical Trials: The Basics • Why did they want to do this study? – What is the hypothesis? – Will the results change SOC or lead to definitive trials? • Who did they want to study? – – – – What patient population? “All comer” or Selected/Enriched? Eligibility criteria? What stratifications (for prognostic groups)? • How did they study them? – Comparison of different treatments? (or against BSC) • QOL or Comparative Effectiveness? Randomized Clinical Trials: The Basics (cont’d) • What was the study design & primary study endpoint? – Randomized Phase II, Phase II/III or Phase III? • How big a patient sample size needed to address the hypothesis? – If Phase II, new treatment vs SOC or “pick the winner” – Primary Endpoint: Response, PFS, OS or Other (QOL)) • Where was the study conducted? – Single institution, multi-site in your country or Global • If Global: Will there be issues of population-related pharmacogenomics? • When were interim results looked at, if at all? – Planned interim analysis? – Is the study a Phase II/III with “go-no go” decision? Discussion of Abstract #8005: “Challenging Convention” • Whole brain radiotherapy for brain metastases from NSCLC: Quality of life (QoL) & overall survival (OS) -UK MRC QUARTZ randomised clinical trial Convention: WBRT is a SOC for brain metastases in NSCLC Discussion points: 1. Do the data support the conclusions? 2. Do the results change standard of care or alter current practice? How do we explain the results of the QUARTZ trial? • Who were these QUARTZ patients? • QUARTZ raises as many questions as it answers – Patients were deemed “inoperable” or “not suitable for SRS” (yet 30% had a single brain met) – Median OS was dismal in both arms: ~ 2 months • Did the study population include many “pre-terminal” cases? • KPS <70% in ~38%. – What was the minimum KPS for eligibility? (No minimum KPS for eligibility) • RPA class III in 34%. (A very poor prognosis group) – Is this a group appropriate for this QOL study? – Were they appropriate candidates for WBRT? QUARTZ Protocol Eligibility: RTOG Prognostic Classes (RPA) in QUARTZ Study Gaspar et al: IJROBP 1997 Comparison of Prognostic Indices for Brain Metastases Sperduto et al: IJROBP 2008 How do we explain the results of this trial? • Was the QOL tool utilized appropriate for the study hypothesis & for study design & eligibility criteria? – EQ5D utilized (Would FACT-BR have provided a better measure?) • Are there better options for therapy of brain metastasis in 2015 than that utilized in QUARTZ? (initiated in 2007) – WBRT with hippocampal sparing – SRS is an ever expanding option • Was the QOL tool utilized appropriate for the study hypothesis & for study design & eligibility criteria? Symptoms reported in the presentation EQ5D is a “Generic Health-related QOL Measure” Has been employed to study Rheumatoid Arthritis, Parkinson’s Disease Multiple Sclerosis CVA Chronic Hepatitis Attention Deficit Disorder Not specific to cancer or to Brain Metastases Conclusions – QUARTZ Trial • Only large randomized trial of WBRT vs no WBRT for brain metastases from NSCLC • Similar overall survival and QALYs (43.3 vs 41.4 days) • Although the results include the pre-specified non-inferiority margin (-9.1 days vs -7 days), the estimate of the difference in QALYs suggests WBRT provides no additional clinically significant benefit for this group of patients My Conclusions: 1. Agree, in this group of patients. But uninterpretable for original intent. 2. Eligibility criteria (~low KPS, high RPA) & selection process (deemed inappropriate for surgery or SBRT) invalidated hypothesis testing for QOL endpoint, & for OS. 3. Non-inferiority was not proven. 4. Due to the nature of the patient population, this study does not alter SOC or current practice. Discussion Facilitated by Dr. David Gandara 183 Group Photo! 184 COFFEE BREAK DELEGATE PROJECT COACHING (90 mins) Day 2 Coaching Groups Group A: Main Room Group B: Eixample Group C: Grácia Barbara Melosky Thierry Le Chevalier David Gandara Clifford Hall Shu-Fang Hsu Schmitz Rosario García Campelo Nick Pavlakis Arik Schulze Cristina Daniela Micu Daniel Gagiannis Marie-Claire Desax Xu Chong-Rui Michael Schumacher Aija Geriņa-Bērziņa Emanuela Salati Erika Korobeinikova Rafael Caparica Nadezda Hamrina Zhamina Albina Esther Holgado Pedro De Marchi Ana Gelatti Joan Coves Patricia Cruz Virginia Calvo Manuel Magalhães Natalia Fernandez Joaquin Mosquera Martinez Krista Noonan Georgi Adly Suneil Khanna Angela Märten Uday Bose Ralf Schnall Verena Zahn Tara Regan 187 PLEASE RETURN TO THE GENERAL SESSION ROOM AT 16.10 Conclusions: Day 2 Barbara Melosky, MD FOR CONSIDERATION TONIGHT! 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