Department of Geography • LMU Munich
Modelling future water quality
of lakes considering results of
a regional climate model
Mark Vetter
Vetter, 28.06.2011
15th IP-Seminar, Cagliari
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Presentation LMU
University of Munich, LMU,
Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Faculty of Geosciences
(Departments of Paleontology, Geology,
Vulcanology, Petrography, Geophysics
and Geography)
Department of Geography
Human
Geography
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Physical
Geography
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Presentation German Group
Mario
Vetter, 28.06.2011
Carolin
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Stefan
Rosa
Mark
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Presentation German Group
Global Change Investigation
Working Group Dr. Vetter
Climate Change
Impact on Lakes and
Reservoirs
Calibrating and
Validation of a
Thermodynamic Lake
Modell and Coupling
with an Ecological
Modell considering
Regional Climate
Modells
Multidisciplinary
Methods of Climate
Change
Investigation in
mediterranean and
templated climate
zones in
Andalusia/Spain and
Bavaria/Germany
Impact on Fish Ecology
Development of surface
drainage in SouthWestern Spain
(Doñana Natural Park,
Andalusia) – human
activity or climate
change?
CAROLIN SCHAFFER
ROSA WILM
STEFAN
WEINBERGER
Vetter, 28.06.2011
15th IP-Seminar, Cagliari
Impact by
Bioenergy
Policies
considering
Global Change
Sustainabilty by
Bioenergy, Chances
and Risks - A Study
Case of the
Municipality of
Bräunlingen
(Southern Black
Forest)
MARIO KUTTRUFF
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Content
1.) Introduction
2.) LAGO – Aims of the investigation project
3.) LAGO – Results
4.) Conclusions
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Overall idea
Lakes as
sentinels
for current
climate,
regulators
for future
climate,
integrator
for past
climate.
WILLIAMSON et al. 2009
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Aims LAGO-Project
LAGO (Limnological Effects of Global Change in Upper
Bavaria - subproject Ammersee)
- Analysis of ecological lake properties in past
meteorological extreme events
- Calibration and validation of a thermodynamic water
balance model using former measuring data
- Modelling lake ecological future under assumption of
regional climate models (such as REMO)
- Development of scenarios for possible (ecological)
future scenarios of water quality development
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Modelling
Modelling of heat balance
DYRESM
2049
Past heat
balance
Current heat
balance
2050
Future heat
balance
Time / Intensity of climate change impact
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Regional Climate Modell REMO
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Regional Climate Modell REMO
1.) Data download
- For a certain emission scenario
- Selection of variables of interest
- Selection of period and timestep
- For the entire modelation area
(Middle Europe)
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15th IP-Seminar, Cagliari
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Regional Climate Modell REMO
2.) Adaptation of data for study area
-Selection of the certain gitter box (10x10km)
-Rotation ellipsoid
- Using UNIX/LINUX for working with data
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Regional Climate Modell REMO
Variable
measured
modelled

3.) BIAS-Correction of Data
- Overlapping of comparision periods
- Linear transformation by linear regression



1980
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15th IP-Seminar, Cagliari
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1990

2000


2010

2020

2030
t
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Field Methods
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15th IP-Seminar, Cagliari
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Study Area
Kind of origin
Geographic coordinates,
lowest point
Mean altitude [m a.s.l.]
Volume [m³]
Mean depth [m]
Maximum depth [m]
Mixing type
Water renewable time
[year]
Catchment area [km²]
Lake area/basin area
Length lakeside [km]
Surface area [km²]
Discharge mean main inflow
Ammer [m³sec-1]
Discharge mean main
outflow Amper [m³sec-1]
Glacialmorphologic
47° 59’ 31’’ N,
11° 07’ 12’’ E
532.9
1750.01 x 106
37.55
81.1
dimictic
2.65
993
20
43
46.6
16.5
21.0
Vetter & Aguillar Alba (submitted)
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Results
Vetter (2010)
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Results
Schmidt-Stability
Vetter. Aguillar Alba, Mena Berrios, Perez Martinez (2010)
Data: LAGO-Projekt, own calculations, LfU
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Results
Results of Model calibration (2004-2007)
2004
°C
2005
2006
2007
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, WWA Weilheim
Weinberger & Vetter (in prep.)
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Results
Comparison Air Temperature 2004-2010 and 2041-2050
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, DWD
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Results
Comparison Precipitation 2004-2010 and 2041-2050
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, DWD
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Results
Lake thermal balance 2041-2050
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
Data: LAGO-Project,
own calculations, LfU
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Results
Lake thermal balance 2041-2050
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, LfU
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Results
Schmidt-Stability in 2048
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, LfU
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Results
Schmidt-Stability (1984-2009)
Vetter. Aguillar Alba, Mena Berrios, Perez Martinez (2010)
Data: LAGO-Projekt, own calculations, LfU
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Results
Limnological scenarios Lake
Ammersee
+
+
+
+
+
Scenario 1 – Trend-Scenario
Atmospheric and antropological input
situation remain in the range of penultimate
decade
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Scenario 2 – Increase of extreme events
such as heat and drought
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Scenario 3 – Increase of extreme events such
as heat and drought + single events of intense
rain in catchment area
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Results
+
+
Scenario 1 – Trend-Scenario
Szenario 2
- Development of trophic level continuing as
so far
- Stabilisation of the mesoptrophic level
-increase of stability in summer
-decrease entry of oxygen in depth
-increase of oxygen shrinkage in depth
- Nutrition decrease in sediment
- Increase in nutrition in epilimnion through
delayed (autumn) or precipitate (spring)
turbation
- Increase in porduction of biomass and
phytoplancton
- deterioration of trophic level
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15th IP-Seminar, Cagliari
+
+
+
Szenario 3
- Increase mobilisation of allochthonos
nutrients in the catchment area
- Entry due to floods
- Increase of P-Release of the sediment
- More nutrients in the lake
- Increase of phytoplancton production
- Deterioration of trophic level
- Slowing down / Stop of reoligotrofication
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Conclusions 1/2
•
•
•
•
Focus on consequences of positive temperature
anomalies – possible average conditions of the
future
Assumed increase of these special situations.
Especially summative effects may lead to
distainable ecological consequences
Some relationships betweeen limnological
reactions and climate change
(atmosphere/catchment area) clearer, some still
need to investigate
Reactions of the limnological eco-system to
special meteorological situations is distainable
but with no long-term ecological consequences
(sufficient resilience of the system)
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Conclusions 2/2
•
•
•
•
Necessity of permanent measurements of
limnological parameters to improve model
calibration
Necessity of further checks/adaptation of
meteorological parameters for simulation
Calibration of thermodynamic water
balance model can be used for estimates of
future lake heat balance and limnophysical
conditions
Preparation is made for coupling of thermal
heat balance model with ecological model
(DYRESM-CAEDYM)
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Thank you very much for your
attention!
Thanks to all contributers
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Thank you very much for your attention!
Thanks to all contributers
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Results
Comparison Total Radiation 2004-2010 and 2041-2050
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, DWD
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