Tests of Evidence
evaluating the grounds
for arguments
Testing Evidence:
some examples and applications
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Florida orange juice ad
Dick Cheney on WMDs
Porsches and Sex
Misinformation in abstinence only classes
Ted Haggard “cured” of being gay
False advertising by the supplement
industry
Happy cows make great cheese?
Deterrent effect of capital punishment
Does drinking orange juice prevent
cancer?
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Are You Drinking Enough?
“The American Cancer Society
reports that along with a healthy
diet, drinking more Florida orange
juice may actually reduce your
risk of some cancers”
Suppressed evidence?
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The Florida Department of
Citrus donated $1 million
to the American Cancer
Society for the right to
print the ads.
Fruit juice has about 8 full
teaspoons of sugar
(fructose) per one eightounce glass.
VS.
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Other fruits and vegetables
confer the same benefits, not
just oranges, and not Florida
Oranges in particular.
• Marion Nestle, head of
New York University’s
Department of Nutrition
Distorted evidence or outright
deception?
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August 2002: Dick Cheney
insisted: “Simply stated,
there is no doubt that
Saddam Hussein now has
weapons of mass
destruction.”
November 2003: Cheney
stated, “we believe he has,
in fact, reconstituted nuclear
weapons.”
January 2004: Cheney says
the United States hasn't
given up on finding weapons
of mass destruction in Iraq, “I
think the jury is still out...,”
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September 2006: On NBC’s
Meet the Press, Cheney
acknowledged that, “clearly,
the intelligence…was
wrong.”
Is it easier to“get lucky” in a
BMW?
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The German magazine “Men’s Car”
conducted a survey of 2,253 motorists
aged 20-50 in its May 2004 issue
• Male BMW drivers said they had sex
on average 2.2 times each week
• Male Porsche drivers reported they
had sex 1.4 times per week.
But the average age and health of the
drivers must be taken into account.
• Porsches on average cost more than
BMWs
• Hence, Porsche owners tend to be
older, have more money, and have
lower libidos.
Misleading information in sex
education programs
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Washington Post, December
2, 2004
Teens participating in
abstinence-only sex
education have been taught
that:
• Condoms fails as much
as 31% of the time
• HIV can be spread via
sweat and tears
• touching”a person's
genitals "can result in
pregnancy”
Rev. Ted Haggard: from gay to
straight in only three weeks!
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Ted Haggard, a former
evangelical preacher, had
sex with a male prostitute
while on meth.
After 3 weeks of intensive
conseling at the Pemberton
Clinic, Rev. Ted Haggard
claims he is now “cured” of
being gay.
Haggard claims he is now
“completely heterosexual”
and he was just “acting out”
before.
But can a person be “cured” of
being gay?
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In 1973, the American Psychological
Association delisted homosexuality as a
psychiatric disorder in its Diagnostic
Symptoms Manual, DSM-IV in 1973. If
it's not a disease or disorder, how can
you treat it?
Also, if being gay is an “illness” or
“psychiatric disorder” wouldn’t it be
analogous to alcohol, e.g., once an
alcoholic always an alcoholic?
To the extent that one’s sexual
orientation is genetic, it can’t be “cured”
any more than curly hair can be “cured”
by making it straight.
Misleading claims in herbal
supplement ads
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Lose weight fast! Shed pounds while you
sleep!
The FTC reports that many marketers
use false claims, misleading consumer
testimonials, and deceptive before-andafter photos.
Nearly 40 percent of the ads studied by
the FTC made at least one claim that
was patently false
55 percent of the ads made at least one
claim that was very likely to be false.
Nearly half of the ads claimed that the
users could lose weight without diet and
exercise.
Enzyte: Smiling Bob isn’t so
happy now
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The makers of Enzyte
agreed to pay $2.5 million to
consumers to settle a lawsuit
involving unsubstantiated
claims about the
supplement.
“Enzyte won’t make your
organ larger, it will make
your wallet thinner,” said
David Schardt, senior
nutritionist at the Center for
Science in the Public Interest
Does great cheese come from
happy cows?
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“Great cheese comes
from happy cows” claims
the TV commercial by the
California Milk Advisory
Boards
The commercials depict
happy, contented cows in
idyllic conditions
So what kind of cheese comes
from unhappy cows?
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Dairy cows don’t graze in lush,
green meadows.
The cows are kept in feed lots,
where they tramp around in
cow pies.
Calves are taken from their
mothers within 24 hours of
birth.
At 2 years old the animals are
artificially inseminated to keep
them pregnant and producing
milk.
Does capital punishment actually
increase the homicide rate?
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States without the death
penalty have lower homicide
rates than states with the death
penalty.
10 of 12 states without a death
penalty have homicide rates
below the national average
half of the states with the death
penalty have homicide rates
above the national average.
The average of murder rate per
100,000 population is higher in
death penalty states than in
non-death penalty states.
Alternate causal explanations
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Some states are more violent to begin with,
owing to culture, heritage, social norms
States with capital punishment also have
higher crime rates for non-capital offenses.
Higher murder rates may have precipitated the
adoption of capital punishment
Having the death penalty on the books isn’t
the same as enforcing it.
Useful sites for testing evidence
http://www.factcheck.org
 http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter
 http://voices.washingtonpost.com/factchecker
 http://www.snopes.com
 http://newsbusters.org (liberal bias)
 http://mediamatters.org (liberal bias)
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