Ability of a multi-year monitoring program to detect potential
change in shoreline fish communities adjacent to Turkey Point
Nuclear Generating Station
Tara Dolan1,2, Joseph Serafy1,3 & Patrick Lynch2
1. University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
2. National Marine Fisheries Service Office of Science & Technology
3. National Marine Fisheries Service Southeast Fisheries Science Center
American Fisheries Society Western Division
Emerging Interactions of Energy Generation and Fisheries in the Americas
April 9th, 2014
Introduction
• 11,000 acre property
• 2nd largest power plant in Florida and 6th largest in
the United States (EIA 2012)
• 25 miles south of Miami
• Borders parts of Biscayne National Park
• Borders parts of Biscayne Bay Aquatic Preserve
• Less than 20 miles east of Everglades National Park
FPL 2009
Brief history of Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station:
• Units 1 & 2 – April 1968
• Units 3 & 4 completed by 1972
• Open cycle cooling system used
from 1967-1973
• July 1967- 1973: fish & benthic
community impacts due to
thermal effluence repeatedly
documented
–
(FWPCA 1970, Nugent 1970, Zieman &
Wood 1975, Thorhaug et al. 1974, etc.)
• 1973 – Closed-cycle cooling canal
system begins operating.
U.S. Department of
Commerce, 1970
Units 6 & 7 Expansion
•
•
•
2009- FPL submits COL application for Units 6 & 7
Estimate operational date: 2019
Est. total project cost $12.1-$17.8 billion
•
•
•
•
FPL 2009
FPL 2009
1117 MWt Westinghouse AP 1000
6 Mechanical draft cooling towers
Primary source: 90 mgd of reclaimed municipal
wastewater
Secondary source: up to 125 mgd from radial collector
wells 40 ft below Biscayne Bay
Power analysis:
• Can improve both rigor and efficiency in environmental
monitoring
• Is underutilized in environmental impact studies
(Smith 1993,
Underwood & Chapman 2003)
• Can aid in preventing a Type II error (false negative) (Peterman
1990)
• Can inform a cost-benefit analysis for monitoring design
(Fairweather 1991)
(Photo: E. D’allessandro, Univ. Miami)
Mangrove fish communities are useful
indicators (& managed resources too!)
• Biscayne Bay mainland mangrove
fringe is Essential Fish Habitat for
several species of commercial &
recreational importance (SAFMC 2009)
• Integrative indicators of
environmental condition
(Karr
1981, Harrison & Whitfield 2004, Browder et al. 2005, Nagelkerke & van
Densen 2007, Pérez-Domínguez et al. 2012, IBEAM 2013)
• show rapid response time
to physiochemical changes
(Haake & Dean 1983, Lorenz 1999, Serafy et al. 1997, Lorenz &
Serafy 2006)
• In Biscayne Bay, FL:
taxonomic richness and
total fish density have
documented relationships
with salinity
(Ley et al. 1999, Lorenz 1999, Serafy
Gray snapper among the mangrove prop roots in
Biscayne Bay. Photo by Jiangang Luo (University of
Miami)
et al. 2003, 2005; Green et al. 2006, Lorenz & Serafy 2006)
SFCVA Field Methods
Design
• Biannual (wet & dry seasons)
• Stratified random (shoreline segments)
• Visual belt-transect fish surveys
30 m
2m
Habitat
• Depth
•Temperature
•Salinity
timeline
• analyzed data from 2005-2012
Fishes
• Species/Taxon
• Number
• Total length
(Min, Mean, Max)
Methods follow Serafy et al. 2003. Slide
graphics credit: Joe Serafy
Data Analysis
• Power analysis on a paired,
• Three study areas
two-sided Student’s t– SA1, SA2, SA3
statistic.
• Season (Wet vs. Dry)
– Taxonomic richness
• Time period: used data
– Total fish density (LN
transformed)
collected between 2005 and
2012 to construct an
• Power of two sided
‘average year’ pooled across
binomial test of proportions
seasons.
– Frequency of occurrence of
gray snapper (Lutjanus
griseus)
– Frequency of occurrence of
goldspotted killifish
(Floridicthys carpio)
Photo: Jiangang Luo
SA-1
• 531 surveys (2005-2012)
• 264 dry season
• 267 wet season
• 53 species
• Largest study area in nested
subset design.
SA-2
• 307 surveys (2005-2012)
•
•
151 dry season
156 wet season
• 41 taxa
• Combined Operating License
Application Rev. 2. (FPL 2010)
• “No adverse impacts” – Draft
EFH Assessment
• Salt deposition to surrounding
habitat has been studied at other
thermoelectric plants (Miner &
Warrick 1974, Shrecker et al. 1975, Talbot
1979, Lin et al. 1994, Brujis & Jenner 2012)
SA-3
• Smallest study area
• 125 surveys (2005-2012)
• 62 dry season
• 63 wet season
• 25 taxa
• 16 families
• Radial collector wells are the secondary
water supply system for the proposed
cooling towers.
• 0.55 ppt average salinity difference
modeled within predicted radius while
wells are operating (FPL 2010)
• “Minimal impacts expected, but
localized, temporary substantial
adverse impacts could occur from
increased salinity in nearshore areas near
the Turkey Point site” – Draft EFH
assessment
• Site Certification Application
(Florida Power & Light Co. SCA,
Chapter 5, Figure 5.1.3-1)
Y axis = number of samples
Taxonomic Richness:
SA1
(entire property)
n =33/season-yr
SA2
SA3
(cooling towers)
n= 20/season-yr
(collector wells)
n= 8/season-yr
X axis = effect size
• Can detect most subtle change in
SA1
• More efficient to sample during
the wet season
• Current sampling intensity
appropriate for detecting medium
effect sizes
• Increase # of samples for a
focused study on SA3.
Study
Area
SA-1
SA-2
SA-3
Season
# of samples
we have
# needed to
detect 33%
change
% change
we can
detect now
Dry
33
24
28%
Wet
33
18
24%
Dry
20
18
31%
Wet
20
10
22%
Dry
8
11
40%
Wet
8
8
32%
Total Fish Density:
SA1
(entire property)
n =33/season-yr
• Can detect most subtle change in
SA1
• More efficient to sample during
the wet season, except in SA3.
• Current sampling intensity
appropriate for detecting medium
effect sizes
• Increase # of samples for a
focused study on SA3.
SA2
SA3
(cooling towers)
n= 20/season-yr
(collector wells)
n= 8/season-yr
Study
area
SA-1
SA-2
SA-3
Season
#
samples
we have
n needed to
detect 33%
change
% change
we can
detect now
Dry
33
Wet
33
Dry
20
Wet
20
Dry
8
Wet
8
32
20
18
10
8
9
33%
25%
31%
22%
32%
36%
Occurrence of gray snapper
(Lutjanus griseus)
• Commercially and recreational
important managed species for which
EFH occurs near Turkey Point.
– Accounts for ~ 11% of total landings in
Biscayne National Park (Harper et al. 2000, SAFMC 2010)
• Tertiary consumer (Stark 1970, Harrigan et al 1989)
• Indicator species for assessing water
quality in BNP (Robles et al. 2005, from draft EFH
Assessment)
• Most frequently encountered in the
wet season (Serafy et al. 2003).
– Southern Biscayne Bay retains
importance during dry season (Serafy et al. 2007)
• Demonstrated avoidance behavior of
salinities > 30 and < 5 ppt.
•
Selection behavior for 9-23 ppt.
(Serrano et
al. 2010)
Photo: Jiangang Luo
Occurrence of gray snapper:
•
•
•
•
SA1
SA2
SA3
(entire property)
n =33/season-yr
(cooling towers)
n= 20/season-yr
(collector wells)
n= 8/season-yr
Detect most subtle change in SA1
Most efficient during the wet season
when gray snapper are most frequently
encountered.
Sampling intensity must be increased in
order to detect changes of smaller effect
size.
It is important to consider what levels
of sampling are feasible.
Study
area
SA-1
SA-2
SA-3
Season
# samples
we have
Dry
33
Wet
33
Dry
20
Wet
20
Dry
8
Wet
8
n needed to
detect 33%
change
% change
we can
detect now
164
64
170
52
141
24
66%
45%
81%
52%
97%
70%
Occurrence of goldspotted killifish
(Floridichthys carpio)
• Important forage species for
predatory fish, wading birds
and crocodilians (Schmidt 1989, Crabtree
et al. 1990, Ramo & Busto 1993, Villegas & SchmitterSoto 2008, Hammerschlag et al. 2010)
• Most frequently encountered in the
dry season (Serafy et al. 2007).
• Demonstrated avoidance behavior
of salinities > 40 ppt.
•
Selection behavior for 13-24 ppt.
(Lorenz & Serafy 2006, McManus et al. 2014)
Occurrence of goldspotted killifish:
•
•
•
•
SA3
SA1
SA2
(entire property)
n =33/season-yr
(cooling towers)
n= 20/season-yr
Greatest efficiency of scale found in SA1
the largest sampling area.
Sampling is most efficient during the dry
season when killifish are most frequently
encountered.
Sampling intensity must be increased in
order to detect changes of smaller effect
size.
It is important to consider what levels
of sampling are feasible.
Study
area
SA-1
SA-2
SA-3
(collector wells)
n= 8/season-yr
Season
# samples
we have
Dry
33
Wet
33
Dry
20
Wet
20
Dry
8
Wet
8
n needed to % change
detect 33%
we can
change
detect now
92
140
69
109
55
95
53%
63%
59%
70%
79%
91%
Power of the SFCVA to detect a 33% change
Conclusions
•
•
•
Spatial scale
– Suited to detect potential community level
changes in larger study areas SA1 & SA2
– Sampling intensity must be increased for a
focused study on SA3 (the radial collector
wells).
Choice of relevant ecological metrics
– Better suited to community level metrics
– Sampling intensity could be increased (within
reason) to detect species-level change.
Season
– Richness and density metrics more efficiently
detected in the wet season.
– However, limiting sampling effort to the wet
season may limit ability to detect trends in
species which are more prevalent during the dry
season, such as goldspotted killifish.
Further investigations:
• BACI design
• One-sided test (if
direction of effect is
known).
• Adding additional years
of post-construction
sampling.
• It’s up to managers & to
decide relevant effect
sizes!
Acknowledgements
Co-authors: Joseph Serafy, Patrick Lynch
Contributors: Brian Teare, Simeon Yurek, Lisa McManus, Mike South and
many others
References
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Backup slides
Taxonomic Richness:
• Variance and average
richness is greatest
during the wet season
(Serafy et al. 2003, 2005).
• In Biscayne Bay:
greater at stable- vs.
variable -salinity sites
(Serafy et al. 1997).
Total Fish Density:
• Used as an indicator of habitat
productivity (Keough & Quinn 1991)
• Correlated with changes in
temperature and salinity (Ley et al. 1999,
Lorenz 1999, Green et al. 2006, Lorenz & Serafy 2006)
• Variance and average richness is
greatest during the wet season
(Serafy et al. 2003, 2005).
• Greater temporal and spatial
variability requires greater effort
(Johnson 1998, Nagelkerke & van Denson 2007)
Recent Environmental Assessment
Studies at TPNGS
• In 2008 Ecological Associates
Inc. was contracted by FPL.
– 26 sampling events
– Otter trawl over seagrass habitat
200m-600m from shore.
– One year of pre-construction
sampling.
• The Essential Fish Habitat (EFH)
Assessment prepared in support
of the Turkey Point Expansion
Project (EAI 2004),
– listed 24 federally-managed
species of fish that may
potentially utilize habitats that
occur in the vicinity of the Turkey
Point Plant during some portion of
their life cycle.
State and Federal Environmental Review
State
Federal
• Site Certification application
– Florida Electrical Power Plant
Siting Act (F.S. 403.501-.518)
• Combined Operating License
Application
– Atomic Energy Act of 1954 (NUREG -0980)
• National Environmental Policy
Act of 1969 (Sec. 102 [42 U.S.C. 4332])
– Environmental Assessment
 Finding of No Significant
Impact (FONSI) or,
 Environmental Impact
Statement
Flowchart of the combined licensing project.
Source: www.NRC.gov
Monitoring continues in this area through the Integrated Biscayne Bay
Ecological Assessment and Monitoring (IBBEAM) program.
• Comprehensive
monitoring of
mangrove-seagrass
habitat, epifauna and
water quality
• Expansion of this effort
further south would
fulfill multiple needs.
Taxonomic Richness:
Total Fish Density:
<-- Location of Unit 6 & 7
<-- Location of Unit 6 & 7
U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation Service 1938, via Pete
Harlem, Florida International University
• Biscayne Bay was formerly estuarine (Smith 1896, Browder & Ogden 1999, Marshall et al. 2009)
• 1948 - Congress approves the Central and Southern Florida Project
• 2000 – Congress approves Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan
• Restore timing, quantity, quality and distribution of freshwater
Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station: A
History
U.S. Department of Commerce, 1984
•
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1974
• Degradation of benthic
habitat in Card Sound
(Thorhaug & Roessler 1977, Thorhaug et al.
1979)
•
•
•
•
February 1973- cooling canal system
begins operation
32 unlined shallow cooling canals
15.6 km2 of surface area
Unit 5 a natural gas unit
FPL applied for extended power
uprate in 2010
Segment
Season
Current
sampling
intensity (n)
Taxonomic
Richness
Total Fish
Density
Occurrence of
Goldspotted
Killifish
Occurrence
of Gray
Snapper
SA1
Dry
33
28%
33%
53%
66%
Wet
33
24%
25%
63%
45%
Dry
20
31%
31%
59%
81%
Wet
20
22%
22%
70%
52%
Dry
8
40%
32%
79%
97%
Wet
8
32%
36%
91%
70%
SA2
SA3
Biscayne National Park Salinity Targets:
• “Measured salinities should not exceed 30
ppt.
• late dry season- early wet season : 15-25 ppt
in the Western Bay Zone.
• Late wet season:
– the Coastal Mangrove Zone should be
oligohaline (0-5 ppt)
– Western Bay Zone should average less than 20
ppt.
Salinity changes should be gradual (e.g. Serafy et al.
1997)