2015 Lodging Outlook
Katie Moro
Global Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships
Nationally, business on the books for the coming 12 months is
up 1.1% over same time last year.
16.0%
Top 25 North American Markets
14,000,000
14.0%
12,000,000
12.0%
10,000,000
10.0%
8,000,000
8.0%
6,000,000
6.0%
4,000,000
4.0%
2,000,000
2.0%
0
0.0%
-2,000,000
-2.0%
-4,000,000
-4.0%
Mar
Apr
May
Group
Jun
Jul
Transient
Aug
Sep
Oct
Var % to LY
Nov
Dec
Jan
Full Yr Var %
Feb
Var % to LY
Room Nights
16,000,000
All major segments of demand are up over last year in both
occupancy and ADR.
Year over year variance % to same time last year for demand on
the books for 2015 in top 25 North American markets
The mid-scale segments are growing occupancy and ADR, and
helping to drive the market.
YoY % Change in Occupancy/ADR – 2015 Demand
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Total Occ
Total ADR
All
Transient Occ
Mid-Upscale
Transient ADR
Channel mix varies considerably by transient segment, and
continues to shift online.
Brand.com
Voice
Direct
GDS
OTA
Retail
Business
Negotiated
Discount
Leisure
Qualified
Wholesale
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
Business guests are booking on brand.com more, and turning
away from offline channels.
Brand.com
Voice
Direct
GDS
OTA
Retail
Negotiated
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
YoY Var %
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
Brand.com
Voice
Direct
Occ
ADR
GDS
OTA
For the leisure segment, online channel share, both brand.com
and OTA, is growing. OTA discounts are narrowing.
Brand.com
Voice
Direct
GDS
OTA
Discount
Qualified
Wholesale
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
YoY Var %
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
50,000,000
60,000,000
9.8%
4.6%
0.0%
-5.0%
Brand.com
Voice
Direct
Occ
ADR
GDS
OTA
2015 Outlook
 Group pace for Q4 is strong, laying a strong foundation
for overall demand performance and pricing.
 Transient business demand growth has moderated, but
remains positive.
 Pricing has improved across the board, but most
significantly in the business segment.
 The pricing environment will continue to improve, with
demand growing across all major segments.
 2015 RevPAR growth (5-7%) will be led by ADR
increases (4-6%) while occupancy grows at a slower
pace (1-3%).
Katie Moro
March 25, 2015
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