How might the changing labour market transform higher education?
CERI expert meeting, Paris, 12-13 February 2007
Labour market changes:
trends and prospects
Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin
Analyst
OECD/CERI
Centre for Educational Research and Innovation
1
Outline

Changes and diversity in the structure of OECD
economies and labour markets

Drivers of change for discussion
– Ageing
– Technology
– Globalisation
2
Common trends, but diverse economies
and labour markets
3
Tu
rk
Me ey
xic
Slo
Po o
va
k R la n
ep
d
ub
Cz
l
e c Hun i c
h R ga
ep ry
u
Po blic
r tu
g
Ko a l
re
Ne G re a
e
w
Ze ce
ala
n
Sp d
a in
OE
CD Ita ly
Ge total
rm
an
y
EU
1
Fra 5
nc
Ja e
Sw pan
ed
Fin e n
lan
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the ium
rl a
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str
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al i
C
a
ite
a
d K na
d
ing a
De do m
nm
a
Au rk
str
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I
c
e
Sw
l
a
n
itz
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an
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Un No nd
rw
ite
ay
d
S
Lu
x e tate
mb s
ou
rg
GDP per capita
US dollars, current prices and PPPs, 2004
60000
50000
40000
30000
28486
20000
10000
0
4
Tu
rk
Ire ey
l an
Cz
e c Nor d
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w
ep ay
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Slo
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r
e p ea
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Hu bli c
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a
Fin ry
lan
Po d
Ge la nd
rm
a
Sw n y
ed
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Au n
st
Me ria
xic
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Ja y
p
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itz
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Au and
st
De ral ia
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the ark
rl a
n
Be ds
lg i
um
Un
G
ite
r
e
d K ec
Un ing e
d
ite
d S om
tat
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Lu Fran s
xe
mb ce
ou
rg
Value added by broad sector, 1980
Agriculture
Industry
Services
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
5
Tu
rk e
Ire y
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N
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ep ay
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ng
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Fin ry
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Me ia
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ly
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tat
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r
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xe
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mb e
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rg
Value added by broad sector, 2003
Agriculture
Industry
Services
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
6
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Ko y
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s
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rm
an
Ire y
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in l
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Ze nd
ala
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Ic e d
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l
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a
De nd
nm
a
No rk
rw
ay
Un
C
ite
an
dK
a
ing da
do
Sw m
ed
Au e n
Un
s
ite tral i
a
d
Ne Sta
the te s
rl a
Lu
nd
xe
mb s
ou
rg
Tu
rk e
Po y
la
Cz
Po nd
ec
rtu
Slo h Re ga l
p
va
k R ublic
ep
ub
l
Me i c
x
Hu ic o
ng
a
G r ry
ee
ce
Sp
a in
Share of employment by broad sector,
1980
Agriculture
Industry
Services
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
7
Ita
l
Ko y
re
Au a
s
Ge tria
rm
an
Ire y
l an
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pa
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F
in l
Ne
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w
Ze nd
ala
n
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a
De nd
nm
a
No rk
rw
ay
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C
ite
an
dK
a
ing da
do
Sw m
ed
Au e n
Un
s
ite tral i
a
d
Ne Sta
the te s
rl a
Lu
nd
xe
mb s
ou
rg
Tu
rk e
Po y
la
Cz
Po nd
ec
rtu
Slo h Re ga l
p
va
k R ublic
ep
ub
l
Me i c
x
Hu ic o
ng
a
G r ry
ee
ce
Sp
a in
Share of employment by broad sector,
2002
Agriculture
Industry
Services
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
8
Enterprises with less than 20 employees:
employment and value added
As a percentage of total employment or value added in manufacturing, 2002
Share in employment
Share in value added
100
90
80
70
60
Sl
Ire
ov
l an
ak
d
Re
pu
bli
c
Ja
pa
n
No
rw
ay
Ge
rm
Un
an
ite
y
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tat
es
De
nm
ar
k
Au
str
Ne
ia
th
er
l an
ds
Be
l
Sw g ium
itz
er
lan
d
Sp
a in
Fr
an
ce
Po
rtu
ga
Fin l
Ne
lan
w
d
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Un
ala
ite
nd
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ing
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m
Sw
ed
en
Hu
ng
ar
y
Ita
ly
A
Cz
us
t
ec
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ep
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lic
50
40
30
20
10
0
9
Lu
xe
m
Sw b ou
r
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an
d
Ko
re
No a
Ne
the rway
rl a
nd
Au s
str
ia
Un
Ja
ite
p
d S an
ta
De te s
nm
Po ark
rtu
N
Un ew Z ga l
e
ite
d K alan
Cz
d
e c ingd
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o
ep m
OE ubl
CD ic
tot
al
Ire
la
Au nd
str
a
Sw l ia
ed
Hu e n
ng
a
Ca ry
na
Be da
lg
Ge ium
rm
an
y
EU
15
Ita
Fra ly
n
Gr ce
ee
c
Fin e
lan
d
Sp
a
Slo
Po in
va
k R la n
d
ep
ub
li c
Standardised unemployment rates:
average 1995-2004
As a percentage of civilian labour force
18
16
14
12
10
8
6.8
6
4
2
0
10
Me
xic
Ko o
r
No ea
rw
Ca ay
na
d
I
Ne c el a
an
w
Un Ze a d
la
ite
d S nd
ta
Sw te s
ed
Un
e
A
us n
ite
t
d K ral
Lu ingd ia
xe
mb o m
De ourg
nm
a
Fin rk
la
Au nd
OE
s
CD tria
Ne
the tota
l
Sw rl an
d
itz
e rl s
an
Ja d
p
Ire an
l an
d
Sp
a
Tu in
rk
Fra ey
nc
e
EU
Po 15
rtu
Hu ga l
ng
a
Po ry
la
Be nd
lg i
um
Cz
ec
h R Ita
ly
ep
ub
Ge lic
rm
an
Slo
v a G re y
k R ec
ep e
ub
li c
Long-term unemployment
Persons unemployed for 12 months or more
as a percentage of total unemployed, 2004
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
11
Diversity within and across economies

Institutions matter

Employment systems
–
–
–
–
–
–
Recruitment practices
Autonomy within a job
Role of formal qualifications
Training, recognition of former experience, portability of skills
Importance of innovation (R&D)
Depends on product, business strategy etc.
12
Some drivers of change
Ageing
Technology
Globalisation
13
Me
xi
Ic e c o
lan
Tu d
rk
Un
Ire ey
l
ite
d S and
ta
Po te s
Ne
r
w tuga
Ze
Sw ala l
n
itz
e rl d
an
Ko d
r
Ca ea
na
d
Lu Nor a
wa
xe
m
Ne
b y
the ourg
rl a
Au nds
s
Un OEC tral i
a
ite
D
Slo d K tota
l
v a ing
k R do
ep m
u
Cz
De bli c
ec
h R nm a
ep rk
ub
lic
Sp
a
Au in
str
ia
EU
Ge
1
rm 5
Sw an y
ed
Be e n
lg i
u
Po m
la
Fin nd
la
Gr nd
ee
ce
Ja
p
Fra an
nc
e
I
Hu ta ly
ng
a ry
Ratio of the population aged 65+
to the labour force (%)
2000
2020
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
14
Some consequences of ageing

Further changes in the structure of the economy

Possible shortages in some sectors
– Teachers, health sectors, scientists, etc.?
– Migration?
– New work patterns for older workers? For women?

Changes in consumption behaviours
15
Technology

Further development of IT and other technologies
– Automation of an increasing number of tasks: end of work?
– New synergies: more demand for highly skilled workforce?

Greater variety of consumer demands and products
& shorter product life cycles
– Personalisation of products and consumption
– Low productivity growth puzzle: inadequate measures of
productivity or new model of production (imagination vs
automation)?

Driver of globalisation
16
Globalisation

Positive impact on economies overall, but loss of jobs and
market shares in some sectors
– Further reach of outsourcing: will highly qualified jobs be threatened
too?
– Change in the structure of OECD economies?
– Impact on unemployment, on wage distribution, on skill level of
available occupations
– Lifelong learning becomes more crucial

Role of Multi-National Entreprises

Financial capitalism and new business model/employment
relationship
17
Questions

Will new business models become prevalent in
higher education too?

What kind of skills will the (tertiary educated) worker
of the future need in order to thrive in the workplace
and the labour market?

Will the economy (really) need more tertiary educated
people? What will happen to those with less formal
education?
18
Thank you
Stephan.Vincent-Lancrin@oecd.org
19
Over-qualification rates in some OECD
countries, 2003-2004
30
25.5
25
20.4
20
14 14.4
15
10
6.4
5.2 5.5
7
7.2 7.6
9
9.2
16.6
15.5 16.2
11.5 11.6 12.3
10.5 10.9 11.3
5
Ca
Ita
na
ly
da
(2 0
03
)
Sw
ed
en
Po
rtu
ga
l
No
rw
ay
Sw
itz
e rl
an
d
De
nm
ark
Gr
ee
ce
Au
str
ia
Fra
nc
e
Un
Ge
ite
rm
dS
an
tat
y
es
(20
02
)
Fin
Un
lan
ite
d
dK
ing
do
m
Be
lg i
um
Ire
l an
d
Au
str
al i
a
Sp
a in
Cz
ec
hR
ep
ub
Lu
lic
xe
mb
ou
rg
Hu
ng
a ry
0
Sources: European countries: European Community Labour Force Survey (data
provided by Eurostat); United States: Current Population Survey March Supplement;
Canada: Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics; Australia: Household, Income and
Labour Dynamics.
20