MIS 2101
Week 11: Evaluating Emerging
Technology Trends
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E.T.
• Emerging Technologies
– New and developing technologies, especially in the Information
Technology fields
– Science-based innovations that have the potential to create a
new industry or transform an existing one.
• Examples
– Nanotechnology, digital paper, virtual reality
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Agenda
• Introduction to Emerging Technologies
• Examples of Emerging Technologies
• How can businesses handle Emerging
Technologies?
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DIGITAL PAPER
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•
Digital paper (or electronic paper) – any paper
that is optimized for any type of digital printing
•
The major difference between paper produced
from a tree and paper produced in a laboratory is
that information on a digital paper sheet can be
altered thousands of times and not degrade over
time
DIGITAL PAPER
•
Potential business impact
– Paperlike displays will replace newspapers,
magazines, and books
– Reusable paper is an environmentally
sound idea
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Types of Emerging Technologies
•
Sustaining Technologies
–
–
–
–
–
–
Make existing ways of doing things better
Existing products are made better
Less risky to adopt
Limited implications
Favors existing players
Examples
•
•
Disruptive Technologies
–
–
–
–
–
–
Create new ways of doing things
Existing products are replaced
Riskier to adopt
Far-reaching implications
Favors New Entrants
Examples
•
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Black and White versus Color TVs, ERP systems
Digital Photography, MP3
DVD Technology
• Sustaining
– For movie studios
– DVDs store more information; last longer than CDs
• Disruptive
– For tape manufacturers
– DVDs use laser technology for reading as compared to magnetic head for tape
• Both
– For video rental stores
– People rent DVDs; but low cost of DVDs
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Why is E.T. important in business?
• Disrupt existing business models and create new ones
– Digital photography
– Mp3 players (iPoD)
• Some innovations start as niche and inferior, but gradually
improve performance to overtake mainstream market
– Notebook hard disks
– Linux Operating System
– VoIP phone (Vonage, Comcast)
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Are Emerging Technologies always better
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Pitfalls of ET
• Sometimes companies adopt them too soon
– Flash, multimedia in web pages
– Personalization technologies
• Sometimes companies don’t adopt them at all
– E.g. B&N versus Amazon (online ordering)
• Not all emerging technologies catch up
– ebooks
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Why are firms afraid of ET
• Dilemma
– Spend money on a failed venture
– Lose ground to new players
• Cannibalization
– New technology can hurt sales of existing products
– Kodak – digital versus conventional photography
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Incumbents who have had problems
• Computer Operating
Systems
• IBM  Microsoft
• Calculators
• Monroe  Sharp, HP,
others
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Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle for New Technologies
(2002)
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Source – Gartner Group 2002 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle
Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle for
New Technologies (2006)
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Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle for
New Technologies (2007)
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Source: Gartner (July 2007)
New vs. Emerging Technologies
•
The Gartner Hype Cycle
•
Generally
•
•
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Emerging technologies are at the left of the chart
New technologies are at the right or have moved off the chart recently
•
Notice Voice over IP (VOIP) has moved from the center to the right between 2002 and 2006
•
Wireless LANs have moved off the chart in the same period
•
Social Networks has moved from peak to trough from 06 to 07
•
Is it easier to evaluate the technologies at the right of the chart
• Examples of Emerging Technologies
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Bluetooth in East Japan Railway Company
Green (First Class) Cars
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The attendant uses a PDA-like device when
collecting green car tickets.
•
The device uses Bluetooth to send the
passenger’s seat and destination to a receiver in
the car.
•
The car displays a green signal above the seat.
•
When the train leaves the paid zone, the signal
automatically changes to red.
•
The passenger can also pay by touching their
SUICA (Super Urban Intelligent) RFID card to a
panel in the car. This also turns the signal to
green in the paid zone.
Appliances – Pervasive computing
•
Devices containing small computers
– Every Device is a Computer!!!
•
A car is a terminal
– Automobiles that monitor
themselves and report conditions to
car service facilities
– Integrated Global Positioning and
computing
•
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Watches, microwaves, phones,
refrigerators, stereos
Platform Independent Computer
Programs
• Same application running on
– a Cell Phone
– a Windows computer
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Immersive Virtual Reality
Illusion of full immersion in an artificial world.
•
•
•
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Head-referenced viewing
Stereoscopic
Full scale presentation
Detection of head, hand (etc) positioning
through head gear, gloves, etc.
• Interaction with virtual object
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Text and images extracted from:
http:/www-vrl.umich.edu/intro/index.html
(Except where noted)
3D and Virtual Reality – additional
features
• Images constructed from real and computer
generated objects in the same view
(Augmented reality)
• Mouse-less pointing devices
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Nanotechnology
• A field of science whose goal is to control
individual atoms and molecules to create
computer chips and other devices that are
thousands of times smaller than current
technologies permit.
• . . . new technologies that juggle individual
atoms . . .
Source: http://www.webopedia.com/TERM/n/nanotechnology.html
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Nanotechnology and Computers
• Current computer chips created by lithography.
• Result of nanotechnology: Very small devices, much
faster computers
– Molecules acting as switches
– Current status: Storage density 10 times that of current silicon
memory chips
• Applications also include medical devices.
Nanotechnology reference (including a good introduction):
http://www.zyvex.com/nano/
Good article on current status:
http://www.industryweek.com/CurrentArticles/Asp/articles.asp?ArticleId=1425
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Other Examples
• Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)
• Global Positioning Systems (GPS)
• Voice Over IP
• Emergence of network portals (Google)
• Biometrics
– Iris scanning
– Face recognition
– Fingerprint recognition
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And --• Commercially available 3d scene capture devices
www.3rdtech.com
• 3D volumetric displays
www.lightspacetech.com
• 3d printers
www.zcorp.com
• Narrowcasting – focused Internet TV
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/05/technology/05joost.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
• High definition TV projected from cell phones
http://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/17395/
• The WiiMote
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii
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And . . .
• Service Integration
– Call centers and Internet
• Security will change
– New methods of authentication including
biometrics (e.g. iris scanning instead of
subway/train tickets)
– Regulatory and privacy issues
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And . . .
• What is missing from the list?
• Social networking?
• Can you think of potential applications for
the technologies?
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The New and Emerging Technologie
Assignment
• Pick a technology from the list in the
assignment
• Find and read references on the technology
• Prepare a short presentation
• Present to the class (10 minutes)
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The Presentation
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•
•
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What is the technology and what does it do?
Business drivers – Why would someone use it and for what?
When will it be ready for use? (Key Risks.)
Technologies it may replace.
Companies or industries which use it (if any) and for what?
Are they successful?
• Is it a threat to an existing company or industry? If so what
company or industry?
• Your evaluation--- Will it be successful? Why?
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Where to find information on
technologies
• The Internet
– Google
– http://www.webopedia.com
• Gartner Group Research
– http://www.temple.edu/gartner
– You must be on campus to use Gartner or (off campus) use your
Temple Account and the proxy setting on your browser
– Select the search option in the lower left of the screen to search for
articles on a specific topic
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Preparing the Presentation
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•
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Instructions are in the assignment
You decide on the number of slides
Use PowerPoint
Be sure to fully reference any material you use --especially quoted material. Be sure you do not
plagiarize.
• Avoid large scale cutting and pasting from articles
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Key Learnings
• Examples of Emerging Technologies
• Sustaining vs Disruptive Technologies
• Impact of Emerging Technologies on Companies and Industry
• Pitfalls of Emerging Technologies / Dilemmas for Existing Companies
• Gartner Hype Cycle
– What does the location of a technology on hype cycle tell us?
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• Questions!!!
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