Science and Implementation
Plans
www.wmo.int/thorpex
Four sub-programmes +
TIGGE
– Predictability and
Dynamical Processes
– Observing Systems
– Data Assimilation and
Observing strategies
– Societal and Economic
Applications
First Science Symposium
(Montreal,2004);
Second Science Symposium
(December, 2006)
THORPEX is a significant contribution towards the
WMO effort to mitigate the effects of natural
disasters
THORPEX will fully realise the societal and
economic benefits of improved weather forecast
especially in developing and least developed
countries
extend the range of skilful weather forecasts of high
impact weather up to 14 days and beyond
Develop accurate and timely warnings in a form that
can be readily used in decision-making support tools
ORGANISATION
International committee structure for the science
established
Regional THORPEX Committees coordinate
activities of regional groups of nations
-North America (NARC),
-Asia (ARC),
-Europe (ERC), and
-Southern Hemisphere (SHRC)
The International Projects Office directs,
coordinates and monitors activities
REGIONAL COMMITTEES
The implementation of the international structure for
THORPEX has revitalised activities in each region
The ARC, ERC, NARC and the SHRC are now developing
implementation plans for their THORPEX involvement
A first draft of an African (mainly north of the equator)
THORPEX plan will be discussed in Niamey in January
2007
Development of a major international plan for a Pacific
Regional Campaign (TPARC) and an integrated plan for
European Regional Campaigns
A Major THORPEX deliverable is a Global
Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
End-to-end forecast system “tuned” for end users, using
targeted observations called on in ‘sensitive areas’,
adaptive data assimilation, probabilistic forecasting, grid
computing and distributed archives accessible through a
single entry point.
REGIONAL CAMPAIGNS
Contributing to elements
of a GIFS
ATREC (2003) many groups are actively
working with the data
European ETReC – D-Phase (MAP), COPS
THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign
(TPARC 2008) – cyclone tracks, extra-tropical
transitions, tropical warm-pool physics and
down-stream propagation (link to, Beijing
Olympics & International Polar Year)
Winter Olympics in Canada (2010)
Tropical convection (2012)
TIGGE – a major element
of a GIFS
An enhanced collaboration on development of
ensemble prediction, internationally and between
operational centres and universities
New methods of combining ensembles from
different sources and of correcting for systematic
errors (biases, spread over-/under-estimation)
A deeper understanding of the contribution of
observation, initial and model uncertainties to
forecast error
Real-time support for demonstration projects and
field experiments
Societal applications leading to increased benefits
to society
TIGGE
TIGGE Workshop (March 2006)
Technical proposal for Phase 1 (global) developed by
archive centres and agreed by ten potential providers
(BMRC, CMA, ECMWF, FNMOC, JMA, KMA, MeteoFrance, Environment Canada, NCEP, UKMO)
CMA, ECMWF and NCAR (the three phase 1 archive
centres) have been in close contact for some time and
test data have been sent routinely from ECMWF to NCAR
Access to the data base of global forecasts will be
possible in Autumn 2006
PARTNERSHIPS FOR
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
With the WCRP
Joint project to develop a unified approach to the development of
high-resolution systems for weather prediction, seasonal forecasting
and climate simulation
With GEOSS
Contribute to GEOSS societal benefit areas – for health, weather
(TIGGE), agriculture and energy
With IPY
To improve the understanding of physical/dynamical processes in
polar regions; utilise improved forecasts for the benefit of society,
the economy and the environment
With AMMA
Involvement with the AMMA field campaign - results in stronger links
for observing system experiments, modelling & predictability and
societal and economic applications
A Brief Overview Of The THORPEX Pacific
Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)
Assembled By
D. Parsons, P. Harr, and T. Nakazawa
THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional
Campaign (T-PARC)
• Summer – Fall 2008
• Initial motivation from Asian and North American
Regional Committees with hopes for some significant EU
participation
• Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and
extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in:
–
–
–
–
tropical cyclone formation
intensification
Motion/track
decay and/or ET
• North American societal impacts from downstream
effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact
weather with research interests in
–
–
–
–
tropical and midlatitude predictability
tropical cyclones,
ET
intense extratropical cyclogenesis
T-PARC Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
Upgraded Russian
Radiosonde Network for IPY
Winter storms
reconnaissance
and driftsonde
NRL P-3 and
HIAPER with the
DLR Wind Lidar
Proposing Institutions
According to Regional Chairs
•
North America
–
–
–
•
Asia
–
–
–
–
•
US Academic Community: SUNY at Stony Brook, U. of Hawaii, Naval Post Graduate School, U. of North
Carolina Charlotte, Pen. State, U. of Washington, U of Maryland, SUNY Albany, U of Miami, U of Wisconsin,
Florida State U
US Research Institutions: NCAR, NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/NWS, Naval Research Lab, NASA/Goddard
Canadian: U McGill, MSC and Others
China: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Chinese Meteorological Administration plus members of
the Academic Community in China
Japan: Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC), Kyoto U,
Nagoya U, Tohoku U, Tsukuba U, U of Tokyo
Korea: Korean Meteorological Administration, Cheju National U, Ehwa Womans U, Kongju National U,
Kyungpook National U, Seoul National U,Yonsei
Collaboration with an expanded DOTSTAR program
Europe
–
–
Germany: U of Karlrsuhe, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR
Hopefully Met Centers (ECMWF, Meteo France, Met Office, etc)
Note work with TIGGE will result in collaborations with all the world’s global forecast
centers.
Scientific Objectives
1) Advancing knowledge of the factors that limit the regional and
downstream predictability of high-impact weather events (e.g, persistent
deep convection, tropical cyclones, extratropical transition events, and
other intense cyclogenesis events) that occur over the North Pacific,
adjacent land areas and other downstream areas;
2) Improved understanding of forecast error growth and the role of scale
interactions;
3) Developing, advancing, and evaluating data assimilation strategies in
concert with superior utilization of satellite measurements with the goal of
improving prediction of high-impact weather events both over the Pacific
rim and downstream locations;
4) To quantitatively predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to
supplemental/targeted observations and to test new strategies and
observational systems for adaptive observing and modeling;
What causes decreased predictability? How is predictability decreased?
What is needed to prevent decreases in predictability?
Scientific Objectives
5) Testing the improvement in local and downstream forecast
skill afforded by high-resolution, non-hydrostatic modeling of
these high-impact weather events;
6) Improving the interpretation and utility of ensemble forecast
systems;
7) Advancing knowledge of the dynamics that produce high
impact weather events over the North Pacific and govern the
downstream response to processes over the North Pacific and
western Asia;
8) Understanding and improving society’s response to weather
disasters, including the appropriate use and evaluation of
probabilistic information, and estimating the “value” to society
that results from improvements in forecast skill.
ASIAN THORPEX Committee:
supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa
Examples of Asian and North
American Forecast Challenges
 Prediction of Tropical Convection, Typhoon Genesis
 Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for
Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)
Typhoon Tokage, After Killing Almost 100 People, is Worst in Japan in 25 Years; Japan’s 10
Typhoons in 2004 are Record for Worst Ever (Oct. 2004)
Total Damages in public
infrastructure(agriculture,
Road, etc) by Typhoon and
Heavy Rainfall in Japan this
year are US $10 billion.
Typhoon Tokage insurance
claims are estimated at 88.5
billion Yen ($839 million).
U. S. projects nationwide
hurricane damages in 2004
at $850 million.
Tokyo, Japan (HDW) October 23, 2004 - Typhoon Tokage ravaged Kyoto and Tokyo on Japan’s main islands, potentially killing almost 100 people. This typhoon is reported to be the worst since 1979, making it the worst in a
generation. Japan has suffered through 10 typhoons this year, which makes this the worst typhoon season by far in Japan’s history. The 2004 season has also been the worst hurricane season on record for the State of
Florida within the United States, and the worst typhoon season for the country of China within Asia. Researchers are still trying to setermine exactly what made this one of the worst seasons globally for cyclone activity.
The picture above, taken by a NASA satellite, shows Typhoon Tokage devastating the Japanese main islands.Typhoon Tokage was originally expected to weaken, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
(JWTC), as it tracked into cooler sea surface temperatures and sucked drier air into itself, but the storm maintained much of its strength as it moved through the ancient Japanese capital of Kyoto, and the modern
Japanese capital of Tokyo. This typhoon was originally expected to lose power and spare major Japanese cities from the calamities of other typhoons that have hit Japan in this worst of Japanese typhoon seasons.
Typhoon Tokage, however, caused great flooding and heavy rains, and many people are still missing. (http://www.hdweather.com/typhoon/typhoon_361.htm)
Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature
and During ET Results in Major
Societal Impacts for East Asia
TY Tokage, October 2004
Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system
Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa
Ensemble Forecast for Tokage
Initial: 8 day
landfall
Northward
Westward
before
Examples of Asian and North
American Forecast Challenges
 Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis
 Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for
Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)
 Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense Middle
Latitude Cyclogenesis Events and Their Pronounced
Downstream Influence via the Northern Wave Guide
The Arctic: A residence in Shishmaref, Alaska – A Direct
Hit By Tokage After ET
(Loss of Permafrost Coupled with Wave Actions)
Courtesy of James Partain, NWS
Major precipitation event on
the west coast of North
America at the timeTokage
is making landfall on Japan
20 Oct 2004
27 Oct 2004
Downstream Indirect Impacts
200 hPa meridional wind anomalies 40o-60o N
200 hPa
TY Tokage
20 October
West coast rainfall event
TY Saola
TY Nabi
Impacts on Numerical Model Performance
200 hPa meridional wind anomalies
Period of TY Nabi and pronounced
downstream response
Period of TY Saola and lack of a
pronounced downstream response
Ex-TY Nabi
Ex-TY Saola
TY SAOLA
Forecast
500 hPa heights
Verification
NOGAPS
a
b
NOGAPS +120 0000 UTC 23 Sep 2005
NOGAPS +00 0000 UTC 28 Sep 2005
Forecast
Verification
GFS
c
d
GFS +120 0000 UTC 23 Sep 2005
GFS +00 0000 UTC 28 Sep 2005
Major Science Issues
•Mechanisms
- Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics
- influence of TC structure
- outflow
- warm frontogenesis and its impact on the
midlatitude flow
- Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics
Midlatitude impact region
Tropical
cyclone
core region
Tropical cyclonemidlatitude interface
Major Science Issues
•Mechanisms
- Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics
- influence of TC structure
- outflow
- warm frontogenesis and its impact on the
midlatitude flow
- Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics
•Predictability (understanding and assessment)
- Ensemble spread
- Forecast difficulty
- Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream response
- Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the
forecast cycle
•Predictability (increase)
- Data sampling strategies
- adequate sampling of important physical characteristics
- data platform types
- Data assimilation strategies, impacts.
Examples of Asian and North
American Forecast Challenges
 Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis
 Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for
Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)
 Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense Middle
Latitude Cyclogensis Events and Their Pronounced
Downstream Influence via the Northern Wave Guide
 Accurate Prediction of Tropical Convection, Changes in
Tropical Cyclone Intensity and the Downstream Impacts
via the Southern Wave Guide
A Series of Three Poorly Predicted Major
Downstream Events Initiated by Tropical Convection
BC’s flood of the
Century (18.5”)
CA Wild Fires
(downslope winds)
Western WA flood
(Seattle 1-day record)
Materials provided by L.
McMurdie, M.
Shapiro, and D. Parsons
TD 23
TD 22
TY 20
TS 21
Region of
tropical cyclones
BC’s flood of the
Century (18.5”)
Western WA
Flood (Seattle
1-day record)
CA Wild Fires
(downslope winds)
Examples of Asian and North
American Forecast Challenges
 Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis
 Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for
Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)
 Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense Middle
Latitude Cyclogensis Events and Their Pronounced
Downstream Influence via the Northern Wave Guide
 Accurate Prediction of Tropical Convection, Changes in
Tropical Cyclone Intensity and the Downstream Impacts
via the Southern Wave Guide
 “To Target or Not to Target That Is The Question!” or is
it “When Do We Target and How (satellite, lidar winds or
In-situ Sensing?”
Dropsonde Observations for
Typhoon Track Forecasts
Operational analysis at 500 hPa （ 12UTC 8 June
2004）
Broken circles: Areas with
typhoon bogusing
Red: Dropsonde data by
DOTSTAR (Wu et al. 2004
BAMS)
T-PARC North American Components
TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005
Midlatitude operating region
NRL P-3, HIAPER, Aerosonde
Extratropical Transition,
Winter Storms and
Downstream Impacts
Japan, Yokota AFB
Subtropical operating region
Driftsonde, NRL P-3,
ET characteristics, forcing of
downstream impacts,
tropical/midlatitude
interactions, extratropical
cyclogenesis
TC track characteristics,
tropical/midlatitude
interaction
Okinawa, Kadena AFB
Guam, Anderson AFB
Tropical operating region
Driftsonde, NRL P-3,
Aerosonde
Tropical Measurements
Large-scale circulation,
deep convection, monsoon
depressions, tropical
waves,
TC formation
T-PARC
• Tropical and ET Measurements:
– Driftsondes
• Launch from Hawaii or suitable location
• 30 gondolas, 50 sondes/gondola
• Multiple heights to get broad coverage
• August-September 2008
– NRL P-3/ NCAR ELDORA/ GPS Dropwindsondes
• Operation from Anderson AFB, Guam and Kadena AFB, Okinawa
• Portion of 150 research hours (15 missions @ 10 h each )
• Portion of 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per mission)
– Other Components
• DOTSTAR
• Tibetan Plateau Observations
• Satellite: MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms
NRL P-3 Strategy
Simulated Driftsonde
Trajectories
Monsoon Depression: Pre-TY Robyn
Guam
(Supplied by W.-C. Lee and M.-D. Chou)
Figures from Harr et al. (1996)
Dropsonde Observations for
Typhoon Track Forecasts
Operational analysis at 500 hPa （ 12UTC 8 June
2004）
Broken circles: Areas with
typhoon bogusing
Red: Dropsonde data by
DOTSTAR (Wu et al. 2004
BAMS)
T-PARC
• Extratropical Transition and Downstream Impacts:
– Gulfstream-V High Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for
Environmental Research (HIAPER)
•
•
•
•
Operation from Yokota AFB, Japan
150 research hours (15 missions @ 10 h each)
450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per mission)
DLR Wind Lidar
– NRL P-3/ NCAR ELDORA/ GPS Dropwindsondes
• Operation from Kadena AFB, Okinawa and
Yokota AFB, Japan
• Portion of 150 research hours (15 missions @
10 h each )
• Portion of 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per
mission)
Components
Midlatitude impact region
Tropical
cyclone
core region
Tropical cyclonemidlatitude interface
region
From Klein et al. (2000)
Downstream impacts may be forced by:
• Advection of vorticity by the divergent wind associated with remaining deep convection in
the tropical cyclone core region
•Diabatic Rossby wave generation due to latent-heat release in an area of strong warm
frontogenesis in the tropical cyclone midlatitude interface region
• Import of energy into the midlatitudes via interaction between the tropical cyclone outflow
and the midlatitude jet in the midlatitude impact region.
Tropical Cyclone – midlatitude interface region
NSF/NCAR HIAPER G-V
Strategies
Midlatitude impact region
T-PARC
• Winter Storms and Downstream Impacts
Driftsondes
• Launch from two locations throughout Japan
• Missions at mutliple heights
• 30 gondolas with 30 sondes each
• 5-week period: Nov-Dec 2008
Other Components
• NOAA G-IV Shifted Westward toward Asia
• Hurricane Hunter Training flights in Central
Pacific for the Winter Reconnaissance Program
• Enhanced Siberian Observation network
• Satellite: MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting
platforms
T-PARC: a global effort
•
In the spirit of A-TREC, the North America and Asian Regional
Committees encourage scientific participation from other regions
•
Based on the Cardinali (ECMWF) and Weissmann (DLR) results, the DLR
Doppler lidar on HIAPER is our highest (and currently only)
observational system requested from the EU. It is a high priority for TPARC, but may be difficult for us to fully fund.
•
We have requested TIGGE in “real-time” for the field phase.
•
We ask that the operational centers in the EU consider data impact and
denial studies for T-PARC.
•
We hope that some of the research expertise from the EU academic,
operational and research laboratories become entrained into T-PARC in
the areas of ET, Rossby wave dynamics, data assimilation and other
fields. This is happening already and T-PARC, like other THORPEX
efforts, will have a relatively open data policy.
T-PARC Status
•
Science Plan Overview and the Experiment Design Overview submitted
to NSF in January 2006 and received very strong scientific reviews
– Includes letters-of-intent from approximately 30 investigators
– Approved to allow submission of a detailed facility request document.
•
Facility Request for NSF/EOL supported platforms submitted September
2006
•
International:
– Funding in place for several components
• Canada ($100-150K for instrumentation, plus in-kind scientific support)
:
• Korea
• DOTSTAR
• Tibetan Plateau
• Others to be defined at the Asian THORPEX meeting in October 2006.
– Driftsonde
– Observations for the 2008 Olympics
– Korean or Japan airborne facilities
• Discussion:
– Further input from T-PARC countries
– Suggestions to T-PARC Committee
– Suggestions for other THORPEX tropical
related priorities and activities
– Thank you!