Kiev retail real estate market overview
Results of the 1st half of 2015
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
Socio-economic development of Ukraine……………….……3
Kiev retail real estate market overview .……………...……..8
Market supply …………….………………………………..……….9
Vacancy rate/ attendance in shopping centers…………….14
Rental rates dynamics …………………………………..………15
Demand analysis……….…………..…………..…….…………..16
Tendencies and forecasts …………………………..….………18
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
2
Socio-economic development of
Ukraine
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
3
Socio-economic development of Ukraine
Real GDP (1st quarter of 2015)*
Inflation**
Retail turnover*
-19,3%
+40%
-24,6%
Export *
-35,60%
Import*
-37,10%
Industry*
-21,8%
Agricultural sector
-5,40%
National debt**
+22,2%
Real estate development *
-31,2%
Commissioning of residential properties*
-19,2%
Average wages**
Direct investments
+1%
-23,1%
*according to index of the similar period in 2014
**according to index of December 2014
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
4
Socio-economic development of
Ukraine
Real GDP (I Q 2015)
- 19,3%
Inflation
Gross Domestic Product
According to the results of the 1st quarter of 2015 the nominal
GDP in Ukraine is 367, 577 bill. hrn., that is 54 bill. hrn. or 15%
more than in the similar period of the last year (313, 568 bill.
hrn.). Real GDP displays the 19,3% fall, that in money equivalent
accounts 296, 712 bill. hrn.
Consumer price index
Inflation index in Ukraine was 102,2% in May 2015. As a result of
hryvnya devaluation and consequently increase in price of
imported products, inflation has become 140,1%.
+ 40%
Retail turnover
GDP dynamics, bill.hrn
1800
20%
1 566
1600
1 404 1 449
1400
7%
1000
15%
15%
1 300
6%
14%
079
8%
1200
720
800
0%
0%
0%
-5%
367.577 -10%
544
600
400
-13%
200
-15%
-15%
2006
2007
2008
2009
-20%
2010
2011
2012
Nominal GDP, bill. hrn.
2013
Consumer market of Ukraine
3,500
29% 22%
25%
2 633
12%
12%2 239
1 906
8%
1 806
30%
3 026
15%
25%
20%
16%
17% 19%
2,000
1,500
2015
Real GDP, %
4,000
2,500
2014
50%
4 012 3998
40%40%
3 619
4,500
3,000
10%
5%
948 2% 913
0
Retail turnover
Retail turnover for 5 months of the year 2015 is 385,2 bill. hrn.,
that is 11 % more than in the similar period of the last year. Such
a positive dynamics was gained due to national currency
devaluation and price increase of food products. But if to compare
the retail turnover in 2015 of compared prices in 2014, it is 75,3%
volume of January-May 2014, that is 24,7% less. Retail turnover
in Ukraine decreased in 15% as a result of 2014, whereas the
similar period in 2013 showed the decrease in 2%. Decrease in
trade started in May, 2013.
The most vivid decrease in retail turnover as compared to the
similar period in 2014 was fixed in Lugansk (87%) and Donetsk
regions (68%).
Absolute leaders of retail turnover volume index remain Kiev
(14,591 bill. hrn, Kiev - 45, 065 bill. hrn), Dnepropetrovsk (27,657
bill. hrn), Kharkov (26,6 29 bill. hrn) and Odessa (20,615 bill. hrn)
regions.
24,7%
10%
9%
5%
0%
1%
1 351
0%
-2%
1 042
1,000
-15%
-17%
500
0
2006
2007
Average wages
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Consumer prices index
2013
2014
-10%
-20%
-25%
-30%
2015
Retail turnover dynamics
5
Socio-economic development of
Ukraine
Export
-35,6%
Import
-37,1%
Volume of residential properties commissioning
International economic activity
-19,3%
Ukrainian international economic activity
90000000
80000000
70000000
60000000
50000000
40000000
30000000
20000000
10000000
0
Current state of the country has significantly influenced its
foreign economic situation.
As of April, a 35,6% decrease in products export and 37,1%
decrease in import is observed in comparison with the
similar period in 2014. As a result of a significant decrease in
import, positive surplus in the amount of 59, 7555 mln.
dollars is fixed in the country.
Dominant position in the structure of the international
economic activity take in the following countries: Russia
remains the leader (export-11,8%,import–16,2%), China
(7,4%, 10,9%), Turkey (7,3%, 2,2%), Italy (5,4%, 2,3%),
Poland (5%, 5,5%), India (3,7%, 1,3%), Germany (3,4%,
11,3%), Spain (2,8%, 1,3%).
438 860
779 028 835 394
805 662
580 944
717 347
364 373
707 953
520 588
444 859
269 200
323 205
834 133
681 899
549 365
770 121
423 564
253 707
12495908.2
11898353.2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Export
Import
Volume of residential properties commissioning in Ukraine
in dynamics in 2006-2014
12000
Construction
10,750
45.00%
10,244 10,496
9,339
10000
50%
11,217
40%
9,741
9,410
30%
8,628
As of May 2015, Ukrainian enterprises have completed
construction activities for the value of 15705,7 bill. hrn, that
was 31,2 % less than in the similar period in 2014 (in
money equivalent 17639,5 bill. hrn).
New
construction,
reconstruction
and
technical
recommission makes 84,9% from the total volume of
performed construction activities, major and current repairs
– 7,7% and consequently 7,7%.
20%
18.70%
8000
10.40%
10%
6,400
2.50%
6000
4.40%
0.80%
0%
-2.10%
-10%
4000
-19.30%
-20%
1,620
2000
-30%
-40%
-39.80%
0
-50%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ukraine, thousand. sq. m
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
Growth rate, %
6
Socio-economic development of
Ukraine
Competitiveness index of Ukraine
WEF ranking
WEF ranking
According to WEF data, Ukraine has reinforced rankings in
the world competitiveness index GCI (WEF), going up to 76
from former 82. One of the main factors of positive tendency
is the change of the government of Ukraine and its actions
towards European integration.
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Investments
Active military actions based on economic recession have
suspended business activity in the country, first of all rolling
back the plans of foreign investors.
Regarding the results of 2014 investment volume was cut in
23%, in nominal equivalent is 45 916 bill.dollars (accrued
results from the beginning of investment).
39%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2014
Enterprises registration
76
Obtaining a building/construction permits
70
Joining electric services
185
30%
Property registration
59
20%
Receiving a loan
17
10%
Minority investors protection
109
Imposition of taxes
108
International business
154
Contract performance security
43
Non-solvency permit
142
40%
0%
-20%
-23% -30%
2014
2009
2007
96
10,000$
2008
2008
76
73
Conduct of business
-10%
2007
72
84
82
Categories
20,000$
0$
73
89
Economy of Ukraine in Doing Business ranking
50%
$58 156
$54 462
$49 362
$44 708
$45,916
50,000$
21%
$40 026
$35 723
40,000$
$29 489
12% 12%
10%
10% 4%
30,000$
60,000$
82
63
2006
Dynamics of direct foreign investments into Ukraine
70,000$
78
Direct foreign investments into Ukraine (accrued results from the beginning
of investment, mln.doll.USA)
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
7
Socio-economic development of
Ukraine
Industry
In May 2015 compared to the last month and May 2014, industrial
products index became 99,8% and 79,3%, and as a result of JanuaryMay 2015 - 78,8%.
In raw materials industry and quarries development in comparison with
January-May 2014, industrial products index makes 74,5%, processing
industry - 79,5%, supply and distribution of electricity, gas and air
conditioning- 84,4%.
Dynamics of industry index,%
120.0%
100.0%
78.80%
80.0%
60.0%
National debt
Total amount of national and guarantee debt of Ukraine as of May
2015 was 67,660 billion dollars, in hryvnya equivalent - 1,424 trillion
hrn.
In the structure of national and guarantee debt the internal debt makes
35% from the total debt or 508,137 mln. hrn, the external one – 65% or
915 990,412 hrn.
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Correspondence of internal and external debt, mln. hrn.
Dynamics of the change in exchange rate
1000000
30.00
24.44
25.00
21.63
15.00
10.00
800000
19.23
20.00
15.77
10.44
6.65
600000
508,137
400000
7.98
300000
5.05
200000
0.00
2006
700000
500000
7.41
5.00
5.05
915,989
900000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
July
276,746
211,752
155,490
173,708
309,000
300,025
284,089
206,511
105,133
100000
0
2010
dollar
299,414
euro
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
2011
2012
Internal debt
2013
2014
External debt
2015
8
Retail real estate market overview
Kiev 1st half of 2015
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
9
Key figures of Kiev retail real estate market
Market indicators
2013
2014
1st half of 2015
Alteration
Total supply, sq.m.
1 000 000
1 073 939
1 094 639
+2%
New supply, sq.m.
164 420
80 620
20 700
-75%
Minimal rental rate, hrn./sq.
m/month (fashion gallery 100-200 sq. m)
30
25
20
- 20%
Maximal rental rate, hrn./sq.
m/month (fashion gallery 100-200 sq. m)
100
80
50
-37,5%
Average rental rate, hrn./sq.
m/month (fashion gallery 100-200 sq. m)
70
49,7
30
1,7
7,5
7,5
-
Daily attendance, ppl./1000 sq. m
945
867
742
- 15%
Attendance of regional
shopping malls, ppl./1000 sq. m
530
654
620
-5%
Attendance of community
shopping malls , ppl./1000 sq. M
1127
937
766
-19%
Vacancy, %
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
-35%
*dollar rate fixation
10
Kiev retail real estate market supply
1 094 639
Total supply, sq. m
New supply 2014, sq. m
20 700
Perspective supply 2016, sq. m
496 579
2 shopping centers have been opened in the capital during the 1st half of the year: Doma center (GLA - 7 000 m2) and Novus (7G Zdolbunovskaya Street),
(8200 m2 hypermarket and 5 500 m2 of retail space). As a result, the total market supply as of December 2014 is 1 094 639 m2 of professional rental
spaces, having been increased in 2%. Till the end of 2015 a shopping and entertainment center of a large neighborhood type «New Way» is expected to be
opened (GLA - 16 200 м2), located in the intersection of Verbitsgogo St./Trostyanetskaya St. and SC at 6 Murmanskaya St. (GLA – 7000 m2). The
following projects are planned to be opened in 2016: Retroville, Podol Mall, Respublika, Lavina Mall, Blockbuster Mall, TsUM, SC at Pochtovaya Square
with the total leasable area around 496 579m2.
Market supply dynamics, thousand sq.m.
1,800
1200%
1,600
1000%
SC
Prospekt
Shopping centers opened in 2014
Address
GLA, sq. m
Developer
Krasnoarmeyskaya str./
41 000
Arricano Group
Krasnotkatskaya str.
Opening
Q3
Q3
Atmosfera
103 Stolichnoe shosse
30 000
De Vision
800%
Doma Cenrter
7 000
KDD Engineering
Q4
1,000
600%
Aprel
40 Stroiteley str.
Koltsevaya, 19 Lesja Kurbasa
Avenue
5 800
Local developer
Q2
800
400%
Appetite
1,400
1,200
600
200%
400
0%
200
2016F
2015F
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-200%
2005
0
Epicentr
Leroy Merlin
New supply, GLA, thous. sq. m
Total supply as of the beginning of the year, GLA, thous. sq. m
New supply share, %
Doma Center
Novus
New Life
Darynok
Shopping Mall
Growth, %
Ukrainian Investment
Alliance
Specialized shopping centers
20d, Polyarnaya str.
70 000
26, Saperno-Slobodskaya str.
12 500
Shopping centers opening in 2015
1, Nikolaya Bazhana Avenue
40, Stroiteley str.
3 420
7000
Q3
Q4
Local developer
Q1
7g, Zdolbunovskaya str.
13700
Verbitskogo str.
16 200
Local developer
6, Murmanskaya str.
7 000
Local developer
Bazhana Avenue
2400
Local developer
Shopping centers opening in 2016
Q2
Q4
Q4
Q4
Respublika
1a, Koltsevaya doroga
135 000
К.А.Н. Development
is specified
Blockbuster Mall
Lavina Mall
Retroville
TsUM
Podol Mal
36, Moskovskiy Avenue
Akademika Palladina Av.
Pravdy Avenue
38, Kreshatik str.
23, Elenovskaya str.
100 000
127 500
91 254
20 000
13 825
Megaline
Megaline
Stolitsa Group
Esta holding
Building Invest Group
is specified
is specified
is specified
QI
is specified
Shopping mall at
Pochtovaya Square
Pochtovaya Square
9 000
Local developer
Q2
Total
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
496 579
11
Kiev retail real estate market supply
According to ICSC classification, except for shopping centers with the area less than 5000 sq. m and stand-alone super- and
hypermarkets, the total area of professional capital shopping centers is 1 094 639 sq. m, that corresponds to the indicator 381,1 sq. m
per 1000 residents according to the degree of saturation of high-quality retail spaces.
About 20 shopping center projects with the total leasable area of about 983 523 м2 with different percentage of completion (design,
construction start, construction on hold) are announced to be opened in Kiev in 2017-2018. Announced super-regional Entertainment and
Shopping Malls are the main objects of successful development for Ukrainian and international retail chains. Their commissioning will lead
to qualitative market growth and (in case the condition of human wellbeing improves) will contribute to the further expansion of
international retailers.
Market saturation, ppl./1000 sq. m
Odessa
393
Kiev
386
Dnepropetrovsk
373
Khmelnitskiy
Gorodok (2 turn)
Petrovka Mall
Perspective supplies of rental spaces 2017-2018
Address
GLA
Developer
Onufriya Trutenko str.
42 000
Liko-Holding
Zlatoustovskaya str.
68 000
Budhaus Group
7-7а, Degtyarevskaya str.
47 052
Arricano Group
1, Inzhenernaya str.
69 200
Forum Evolution
Nikolaya Bazhana Avenue
140 000
ХХI century
10, 14, Dneprovskaya
55 000
Local developer
Naberezhnaya str.
2, Nikolaya Vasilenka str.
54 300
Viktoriya
Petra Grigorenka Avenue
75 400
Dilise
Zdolbunovskaya str.
55 000
Immochan Ukraine
Horkogo str.
45 000
KAN Development
Silver Sky
52-54, Horkogo str.
64 500
Development
23а Moskovskiy Avenue
29 650
KEMZ Svarka
10, Moskovskiy Avenue
65 360
Tiko Construction
Nivki City
Pobedy Avenue
74 036
Local Developer
project
Univer City
Vladimirskaya str.
18 700
Kievgorstroy Invest
project
Kiev E95 Outlet (1 turn)
Odesskoe shosse
18 525 Evo Land Development
Shopping center
Happy Mall
HARTZ
Lukyanovka
Manhattan Mall
Vyrlitsa
River mall
315
Nikolaev
279
Victoria
Kyiv mall
Auchan
Ocean Mall
Vinnitsa
282
Gorky Park
Lutsk
307
Simferopol
256
Kherson
230
Donetsk
204
Ivano-Frankovsk
204
Lvov
182
SC on Sklyarenko str.
Kirovohrad
123
Chernigov
Avenue
89
Zaporozhe
SC on Geroev Dnepra
72
0
100
200
300
400
Syretskaya str./ Sklyarenko
str.
48, Kosmonavta komarova
str.
Subway station Geroev
Dnepra
Opening
2017
2017
2017
project
on hold
on hold
on hold
on hold
project
project
project
project
project
project
15 000
Local developer
2016
39 000
Dragon & TikoConstruction
2016
7 800
Local developer
2016
500
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
12
Kiev retail торговые
real estate центры
market supply
Действующие
Киева
Regional Shopping
Malls
Dream Town
Ocean Plaza
Sky Mall
Karavan
Community Center
Bolshevik
Gulliver
Address
Obolonskiy Ave.
174, Horkogo St..
2, Generala Vatutina Ave.
12. Lugovaya St.
Address
Marmelade
Art Mall
Promenada Center
Promenada Park
Gorodok
6b, Vadima Hetmana St.
1а, Sportivnaya Sq.
Krasnohvardeyskaya
St./Krasnotkatskaya St.
154, Borshchagovskaya St.
37, Akademika Zabolotnogo St.
17-21, Bahhoutovskaya St.
4, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St.
23а, Moskovskiy Ave.
«Ukraina» dept.store
3, Pobedy Ave.
Rayon
Arcadia
Magellan
Kvadrat
Globus
Alta Center
Arcadia
Metropolis
Silver Breeze
Metrograd
Piramida
Plazma
Alladin
Atmosfera
Arena City
KOMOD
DOMA center
4, Nikolaya Lavrukhina St.
10a, Dneprovskaya Nab. St.
13b, Akademika Hlushkova St.
36, Perova Ave.
1, Nezavisimosti Sq.
15, Moskovskiy Ave.
154, Borshchagovskaya St.
12, Malinovskogo St.
Dneprovskaya Nab. St.
Bolshaya Vasilkovskaya St.
4, Mishuhi St.
20b, Moskovskiy Ave.
3-5, Hrishko St.
103, Stolichnoe shosse St.
Krasnoarmeyskaya St./Basseynaya
4, Lunacharsoho St.
4, Stroiteley St.
Prospect
Neighborhood
Shopping Mall
VMB
Kvadrat
Polyarnyi
Olimpiyskiy
Europort
Interval Plaza
Address
136, Pobedy Ave.
20, Hnata Yury St.
2, Maiorova St.
72, Bolshaja Vasilkovskaya St.
15А, Lukashevicha St.
143/2, Bolshaya Vasilkovskaya St.
Year of
opening
2009
2012
2007
2008
Year of
opening
2008
2013
GLA, sq. m
81 000
70 000
67 000
44 000
GLA, sq. m
37 000
45 200
2014
41 400
2013
2013
2003
2009
2003
40 000
37 000
34 000
32 000
7 000
2003
23 000
2012
2008
2003
2008
2002
2004
2007
2005
2013
2002
2004
2006
2004
2014
2005
2007
2014/2015
Year of
opening
2004
2003
2013
2004
2005
2004
23 000
22 000
21 600
19 000
18 579
17 000
17 000
15 284
14 600
11 000
12 000
12 000
10 030
30 000
8 000
7 647
7000
GLA, кв. м
5 000
11 502
8 630
8 250
4 195
7 874
Neighborhood
Shopping Mall
Kvadrat
InSilver
Darnitsa
Specialized Shopping
Mall
Detskiy Mir
Blockbuster
4ROOM
Arax
Ultramarine
Manufaktura
Diamant
Makros
Dom mebeli
B-52
Domosfera
Mandarin Plaza
DIY
Epicentr
Epicentr
Epicentr
Novaya Liniya
Novaya Liniya
Metro
Metro
Metro
Metro
Auchan
Auchan
Epicentr
Epicentr
NOVUS
Leroy Merlin
Leroy Merlin
Leroy Merlin
Epicentr
NOVUS
NOVUS
NOVUS
Epicentr
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
Address
2, Belorusskaya St.
3, Sribnokilskaya St.
2/1, Vossoedineniya Ave.
Address
3, Andreya Malyshka St.
34v, Moskovskiy Ave
6, Petropavlovskaya St.
110, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St.
1a, Uritskoho St.
2 , Novoobukhovskoe shosse
14Е, Petropavlovskaya St.
16b, Moskovskiy Ave.
23, Druzhby Narodov Blvd.
52, Bratislavskaya St.
101, Stolichnoe shosse
4, Basseynaya St.
Address
20d, Polyarnaya St.
4, Viskoznaya St.
6, Khrustalnaya St.
65/1, Balzaka St.
8,Odesskoe shosse
26v, Moskovskiy Ave.
2а, Saburova St.
43, Petra Grigorenka Ave.
1v, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St.
15а, Moskovskiy Ave.
6, Berkovetskaya St.
11, Bratislavskaya St.
1b, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St.
7a, Akademika Palladina Ave.
17а, Polyarnaya St.
3v, Brovarskoy Ave.
26, Saperno-Slobodskaya St.
40, Petra Hrigorenko Ave.
4d, Krasnozvezdnyi Ave.
1a, Krasnohvardeyskaya St.
8, Nikolaya Bazhana Ave.
6v, Berkovetskaya St.
Year of
opening
2002
2011
2008
Year of
opening
1987
2008
2009
2009
2004
2013
2013
2004
1984
2008
2009
2003
Year of
opening
2014
2008
2008
2004
2005
2005
2009
2004
2003
2008
2009
2008
2005
2010
2010
2013
2014
2005
2013
2013
2013
2009
GLA, sq. m
6 000
5 909
5 830
GLA, sq. m
8 000
24 750
24 000
16 000
15 000
15 000
11 250
8 286
16 000
12 003
24 500
9 400
GLA, sq. m
70 000
11 000
12 000
6 795
13 131
9 500
9 500
9 500
9 500
15 000
15 660
12 000
30 000
4 008
13 000
~10 000
~10 000
43 000
8 800
6 000
6 500
56 000
13
Map of existing and announced shopping
centers in Kiev
Regional SC
District SC
Community SC
Free standing hypermarket
Specialized SC
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
Regional shopping centers:
1) Dream Town - Obolonskiy Ave.
2) Ocean Plaza – 174, Horkoho St.
3) Sky Mall – 2, Henerala Vatutina Ave.
4) «Караван» - 12, Luhovaya St.
Community shopping centers:
5) Bolshevik- 6b, Vadima Hetmana St.
6) Gulliver – 1a, Sportivnaya Sq.
7) Marmelade- 154, Borshchagovskaya St.
8) Art Mall - 37, Akademika Zabolotnogo St.
9) Promenada Center - 17-21, Bahhoutovskaya St
10) Promenada Park – 4, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St.
11) Gorodok- 23а, Moskovskiy Ave.
12) Department store Ukraina- 3, Pobedy Ave.
13) Rayon – 4, Nikolaya Lavruhina St.
14) Arcadia - 10a, Dneprovskaya Naberezhnaya
15) Magellan- 13b, Akademika Hlushkova St.
16) Kvadrat- 3b, Perova Blvd.
17) Globus- 1, Nezavisimosti Sq.
18) Alta Center- 15, Moskovskiy Ave.
19)Arcadia – 154, Borshchagovskaya St.
20) Metropolis- 12, Malinovskoho St.
21) Silver Breeze - Dneprovskaya Naberezhnaya St.
22) Metrograd- Bolshaya Vasilkovskaya St.
23) Piramida- 4, Mishugi St.
24) Plazma- 20b, Moskovskiy Ave.
25) Alladin- 3-5, Hrishko St.
26) Atmosfera- 103, Stolichnoe shosse
27) Arena City - Krasnoarmeyskaya/ Basseynaya
28) KOMOD – 4, Lunacharskogo St.
Neighbourhood shopping centers:
29) VMB – 13 b, Pobedy Ave.
30) Kvadrat- 20, Hnata Yury St.
31) Polyarnyi- 2, Maiorova St.
32) Olimpiyskiy-72, Bolshaya Vasilkovskaya St.
33) Europort- 15а, Lukashevicha St.
34) Interval Plaza- 143/2, Bolshaya Vasilkovskaya St.
35) Kvadrat- 2, Belorusskaya St.
36) InSilver - 3, Sribnokilskaya St.
37) Darnitsa- 2/1, Vossoedinenija Ave
Specialized shopping centers:
38) Detskiy mir- 3, Andreya Malyshko St.
39) Blockbuster – 34v, Moskovskiy Ave.
40) 4ROOM - ул. Петропавловская, 6
41) Araks- 110, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St.
42) Ultramarin- 1а, Uritskogo St.
43) Manufaktura- 2, Novoobukhovskoe shosse
44) Diamant- 14e, Petropavlovskaya St.
45) Makros- 16b, Moskovskiy Ave.
46) Dom mebeli- 23, Druzhby Narodov Ave.
47) B-52 – 52, Bratislavskaya St.
48) Domosfera- 101, Stolichnoe shosse
49) Mandarin Plaza- 4, Basseynany St.
14
Kiev shopping centers, announced to be opened in
2016-2018
Respublika**
Kiev, Koltsevaya doroga, 1а
GLA – 135 000 m2
Lavina mall**
Kiev, Ak,Palladina Ave.
GLA – 127 500 m2
Blockbuster Mall**
Kiev, Moskovskiy Ave.
GLA – 100 000 m2
Retroville
Kiev, Pravdy Ave.
GLA – 91 254 m2
Ocean Mall**
Kiev, Horkoho St.
GLA – 45 000 m2
Kiev mall
Kiev, P.Hrihorenka Ave.
GLA – 75 400 m2
«New Life»**
Kiev, Verbitskogo St.
GLA – 15 952 m2
«Vyrlitsa»*
Kiev, N.Bazhana Ave
GLA – 140 000 m2
Petrovka Mall*
Kiev, Moskovskiy Ave.,10
GLA – 65 360 m2
HARTZ
Kiev, Zlatoustovskaya St.
GLA – 68 000 m2
«TsUM»
Kiev, Kreshchatik St., 38
GLA – 20 000 m2
Manhattan Mall**
Kiev, Inzhenernaya St., 1а
GLA – 69 200 m2
* UTG - consultant
** UTG – consultant иand exclusive tenant mix agent
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
15
Attendance and vacancy in Kiev shopping
centers
Attendance
According to the results of the 1st half of 2015 the average daily
attendance in Kiev shopping centers is: for regional
entertainment and shopping malls - 620 ppl. per 1000 sq. m
GLA, for community shopping malls - 766 ppl. per 1000 sq. m
GLA. Average indicator - 742 ppl. per 1000 sq. m.
We observe a positive tendency of increasing of visitors in
regional entertainment and shopping malls. This factor indicates
the significant competitiveness of regional shopping centers, able
to offer a wide range of product groups and entertainment to a
final consumer.
The highest attendance rate of about 30 000-40 000 people in
weekdays and about 60 000 people in weekends is observed in
Ocean Plaza, Sky mall, Dream Town (1st part), Karavan.
Average daily attendance of shopping centers
(ppl. per 1000 sq. m, GLA)
Vacancy
Average market vacancy rate in the existing shopping centers and
shopping entertainment centers continues to be 7,5% during 20122014, due to shrinking plans of development from retailers,
complicated economic situation, decrease in consumer demand.
For some new big trade facilities the vacancy rate exceeds 50%.
Appearance of free leasable areas can be witnessed even in the
most successful shopping centers - Ocean Plaza, Dream Town (1st
part), Sky Mall, which are traditionally characterized by the lack of
vacant leasable areas.
Average vacancy of shopping centers in Kiev, %
8%
7%
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
01-Jul-15
01-Jun-15
01-May-15
01-Apr-15
01-Mar-15
01-Feb-15
01-Jan-15
01-Dec-14
01-Nov-14
01-Oct-14
01-Sep-14
01-Aug-14
01-Jul-14
01-Jun-14
01-May-14
jul 15
jun 15
may 15
apr 15
mar 15
feb 15
jan 15
dec 14
nov 14
ocr 14
sep 14
aug 14
jul 14
jun 14
0%
16
Rental ratesАрендные
in Kiev shopping
ставки
в торговых центрахcenters
Киева
Rental rates
Rental rates at the retail real estate market have significantly
changed under the influence of economic and political situation in
the country, particularly due to the national currency record
devaluation. As a result of the 1st half of 2015 the average rental rate
in Kiev shopping centers for fashion gallery (leasable area 100-200
m2) is 28,6$ / m2/ month net of VAT, that is 35% less than in the
similar period of 2014. Moreover, landlords practice «individual
agreements»: short-term fixation of dollar rate, repair compensation,
etc.
Percent of retail turnover is a kind of payment scheme, which is
widely spread among anchor tenants – 2-5% and retail gallery
operators - 7-15%.
45
40
25
$100
$49
$28
Restorants and Cafes
$12
Bowlingalley/billiards
$8
$4
Children’sentertainment center
$8
$4
Cinema
700
Fashion gallery (100-200 sq. m.)
600
Electronics supermarkets
$10
$4
$20
$8
$50
$10
$16
$8
28.628.628.628.6 500
400
21.6
18.2
20
Kiosks, souvenir, gifts, jewellery, accessories shops
(1-10 sq.m)
Department stores and large format clothes shops
(600-1,500 sq. m.)
Rental rates dynamics in Kiev SC, USD, hrn.
38.5
38.5
37.6
35.1
34.8
33.432.4
33.4
33.3
35
31.5
29.3
30
Average scope of rental rates in Kiev SC ($/sq. m/month net of
VAT and OPEX)
Typical lease terms in shopping centers
300
Lease term From 3 to 10 years, for anchors 5-15 years
15
200
10
100
5
Rental rate, USD
Rental rate, UAH
01-Jul-15
01-Jun-15
01-May-15
01-Apr-15
01-Mar-15
01-Feb-15
01-Jan-15
01-Dec-14
01-Nov-14
01-Oct-14
01-Sep-14
01-Aug-14
01-Jul-14
01-Jun-14
01-May-14
01-Apr-14
0
01-Mar-14
0
Payment
policy
Rates are nominated in dollars, payment in hryvnas
according to exchange rate, annual indexation at the CPI
level. Rate $1 is fixed at the level 18-20UAH
Deposit
From 1 to 3 months, possible guarantee for anchors
Rental
space
Shell and core, fit-out
condition
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
17
Demand
Demand
Despite the economic situation of the country,
particularly population solvency, decrease in
retailers` turnover, reduce of development plans,
we observe a positive tendency and retail real
estate market revival.
Over the 1st half of 2015 4 new brands have been
entered into the Ukrainian market, among which
appear Ukrainian companies, that characterizes the
development of this field. It is also worth mentioning
that 3 well-known brands have returned: Bosco,
Marella, Marina Rinaldi, which shut down their
operations in the end of 2014.
Negotiations
with
large-scale
international
operators continue to be held (IKEA, H&M,
Intersport, Cotton, Defacto, etc.), being not
introduced at the Ukrainian market yet and whose
introduction is expected in 2016 together with
commissioning of large-scale projects.
Brand
Country
Opened in 2014
Pedro del Hierro, fashion
Spain
Sinsay (LPP Group), fashion
Poland
Keddo, shoe shop
Great Britain
Vittorio Spernanzoni, shoes shop
Italy
Twin Set, fashion
Shopping Malls
Gulliver
King Cross, Lvov
Kreshchatik St.
Saksaganskoho St.
Italy
Gulliver
-
Ocean Plaza
Coffee Shop Company
Austria
Lvov, Sobornaya Sq., 2
Paul, confectionery
France
Yaroslavov Val St., 26
Calzedonia, underwear
Intimissimi, underwear
Italy
Italy
Karavan
Karavan
Prenatal, maternity wear
Italy
Dream Town
Germany
Arena City, Kiev
Hnatyuka St., 12, g.Lvov
Great Britain
Sweden
Piramida
Street retail, Rovno
Paker, multi-brand shoe shop
Vapiano, chain restaurants
Peacocks, fashion*
Fika, fast food outlet
1st half of 2015
Due to tense military situation and combat activities
in the eastern Ukraine, most operators wrap up
their business in Donetsk and Lugansk regions and
move to the more profitable regions (Lvov, Kiev).
adL/ADILISIK, fashion
Turkey
Udress, designer wear
Bosco*, sports goods
Ukraine
Russia
Silenza, underwear
Betty Barclay, fashion
Marina Rinaldi *, fashion
Marella*, fashion
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
Italy
Germany
Italy
Italy
Dream Town
Piramida
Gulliver
Art Mall
Проспект, SkyMall, Dream
Town, Gulliver
Осеan Plaza
Осеan Plaza
Осеan Plaza
18
Dynamics of foreign brands introduction at the Ukrainian market
Commissioning of foreign brands in 2012
Brand
Country
SC
Furla
Italy
Ocean Plaza
Dolce&Gabbana
MaxMara Weekend
Italy
Italy
Mandarin Plaza
Ocean Plaza
Russia
Ocean Plaza
Kari
Trussardi Jeans
Italy
Camper
США
Napapijri
Italy
Karavan
Ocean Plaza
Cinque
Italy
Ocean Plaza
Испания
Ocean Plaza
Diesel
Italy
Street retail
Reiss
UK
Ocean Plaza
Why Denis
Romania
Strellson
Germany
Ocean Plaza
Ocean Plaza
Turkey
Ocean Plaza
Michael Kors
USA
Ocean Plaza
Marina Rinaldi
Italy
Ocean Plaza
France
Ocean Plaza
Valentino
Italy
Street retail
Piazza Italia
Italy
Ocean Plaza
W52 Jeans
Portugal
Dream Town
Gilda Tonelli
Italy
Ocean Plaza
KFC
USA
Ocean Plaza
Germany
Sky Mall
Italy
Greece
Ukraine
Ocean Plaza
Pepe Jeans
Suvari
Atelier
S.Oliver
Oviesse kids
Soocre
Commissioning of foreign brands in 2013
Brand
Country
SC
Happylon
Kazakhstan
Ocean Plaza
LC Waikiki
Turkey
Ocean Plaza
Armani Jeans
Italy
Ocean Plaza
Cinnabon
USA
Ocean Plaza
Style Avenue
Czech Republic
Ocean Plaza
Z-Generation
France
Ocean Plaza
Petit Bateau
France
Ocean Plaza
Bebe
USA
Ocean Plaza
YAMAMAY
Italy
Gulliver
Versace Collection
Italy
Gulliver
Antica Murrina
Italy
Gulliver
Hadley
Russia
Ocean Plaza
Fabs
Italy
Gulliver
Nautica
USA
Sky Mall
Kanzler
Germany
Ocean Plaza
Camicissima
Italy
Gulliver
Agent Provocateur
UK
Gulliver
Commissioning of foreign brands in 2014
Mango Megastore(Mango,
Spain
Street retail
Mango H.E., Mango kids)
Pedro del Hierro
Spain
Gulliver
Sinsay (LPP Group)
Poland
King Cross (Lviv)
Keddo
UK
Street retail
Vittorio Spernanzoni
Italy
Street retail
Twin Set
Italy
Gulliver
Coffee Shop Company
Austria
Street retail (Lviv)
Paul
France
Street retail
Prenatal
Italy
Dream Town
Vapiano
Germany
Arena City
Peacocks
UK
Piramida
Paker
Ocean Plaza
Cazledonia
Italy
Karavan
Intimissimi
Italy
Karavan
Fika
Sverige
Street retail (Rivne)
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
19
Stakeholders at the fashion retail market of Ukraine
№
Group of companies
Brands
Number of
stores
Intertop, Plato, Geox, Ecco, Skechers, Clarks, MARC O'POLO,
TIMBERLAND, Armani Jeans, Atelier de Courcelles, Napapijri ,Pandora,
Urban United, Lee/Wrangler, Lenovo
213
MD Group
TOMMY HILFIGER, GANT, G-STAR RAW, OGGI, ACCESSORIZE, WALKER,
DKNY Men, Pepe Jeans, Etam lingerie, Diesel, Fornarina
123
City moda
Marc Aurel, Reiss, Marina Rinaldi, Marc Cain, MAX&Co, Airfield,Rene Lezard,
Bogner, Braxx
72
4
LPP Group
Reserved, Cropp Town, House, Mohito, Sinsay
64
5
Ultra jeans
Levi’s, Baldinini, Lagerfeld, Guess, Pierre Cardin
59
6
Delta Sport
Nike, Mexx, Converse
55
7
Argo
Mango, Benetton, Promod, Parfois, Orsay, Desigual, Only, Piazza Italia, Aldo,
Argo Center
54
8
Inditex
Zara, Pull&Bear, Massimo Dutti, Bershka, Stradivarius, Oysho
52
1
2
3
MTI
9
TransUkrainaIntersport Tally Weijl, Pimkie, Karen Millen, Oasis, Warehouse
10
KarKat Fashion Group
11
BNS Trade
Springfield, Women'secret, Pedro Del Hierro, Cortefiel
Calvin Klein Jeans,Top Shop, Michael Kors
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
45
23
8
20
Key tendencies of retail real estate market
Tendencies and forecasts
• During the 1st half of the year 2 new objects have been opened in the
Kiev: Doma Center (GLA - 7 000 m2 ) and Novus (8200 m2
hypermarket and 5 500 m2 of leasable areas). As a result, the total
market supply in December 2014 come up to 1 094 639 m2 of
professional retail spaces, having increased the total supply in 2%. Till
the end of 2015 a new shopping and entertainment center of
community (large neighborhood) type «New Way» (GLA - 16 200 м2)
is expected to be opened in the intersection of Verbitsgogo
St./Trostyanetskaya St. and Shopping center at 6 Murmanskaya St.
(GLA – 7000 м2).
• The commissioning of new shopping centers is announced to be
postponed for the year 2016: Retroville, Podol Mall, Respublika, Lavina
Mall, Blockbuster Mall.
• Retail real estate market has faced a real challenge: reduction of
consumption volumes, retailers` turnover, chain development plans,
number of stores, that resulted in 30-70% decrease in rental payment,
vacancy growth from 2% to 7,5%, decrease of active tenants from
about 1000 to less than 100, and the number of new retailers entering
into Ukrainian market was reduced in 2 times;
• Nowadays market relationships and conditions have stabilized.
Tenants have got benefits, that is why they can get maximally flexible
terms;
• Significant difference in rental payment in new and existing shopping
centers;
• Kiev shopping malls managed to maintain currency fixation with the
U.S. dollar on a quarterly basis;
• Retail turnover percent became a compensator of the fall of rental
rates;
• Redistribution of retail turnover and traffic among shopping centers and
retailers;
• Consumer sentiment has been gradually reactivated, but there is no
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
background for a rapid growth;
Tenants have become more selective regarding new stores opening
due to drop in income and lack of reasonable debt financing;
Retailers have optimized their operation, shut down unprofitable
stores, the most progressive chains have invested into marketing;
For some retail chains this crisis has become a period of active
development;
New possibilities and niches for Ukrainian manufacturers have
appeared in current conditions;
Tendency of tenants rotation from street retail objects into the shopping
centers;
Marketing and promotion have become a crucial factor of successful
business in shopping centers;
Property management companies have optimized OPEX without
reducing the expenses onto objects promotion;
Till the end of 2015 a vague rental rates increase is expected due to
the fact, that new supply of this year has been postponed for the year
2016;
Due to retail real estate market stabilization, perspective rental spaces
availability and minimal rental rates, there is a solid background for
new franchise introduction;
Further real estate development will be connected with the entering of
new brands into the Ukrainian market;
On the whole the situation in real estate segment will remain stable till
the end of this year.
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
21
Consumer preference of Kiev residents
Purchases in shopping centers and opinion concerning the best one
Ocean Plaza, Lybedskaya underground st.
Dream Town, 1,2 turns
Sky Mall
Bolshevik
Karavan
Prospekt
Gulliver
Promenada Park
Aladdin
Raion, Lavrukhina St.
Piramida
Metropolis
Ukraina
Kvadrat, Perova blvd.
Darynok, Lesnay aundergroung st.
Magellan
City markets
No one
37.1%
21.9%
27.4%
17.3%
25.3%
10.9%
11.0%
5.1%
12.9%
5.1%
12.9%
4.0%
10.8%
3.5%
4.3%
2.4%
6.8%
1.9%
3.1%
1.8%
9.1%
1.6%
4.4%
0.9%
5.5%
0.9%
3.4%
0.8%
11.0%
0.6%
5.3%
0.5%
Clothes and shoes
12.6%
purchases
0.3%
9.9%
15.3%Best
• Ocean Plaza is the leader in the number of
unique consumers. 37% of Kiev respondents
have bought clothes or shoes in this shopping
center at least once for the last half of the
year. This mall takes the 1st place for the
loyalty level in Kiev. 22% of respondents
consider Ocean Plaza to be the best
shopping entertainment center.
• Dream Town and Sky Mall (27% and 25%,
accordingly), show high rates of the number
of unique consumers. The loyalty level
prevails in Dream Town (17%). 11% of
respondents consider Sky Mall to be the best
shopping center in the city.
*Data introduced displays the percentage of the number of unique consumers. Unique consumer presupposes at least one purchase for the last half of the year.
Quantitative survey of Kiev residents was held in the way of standardized face to face door enquiry. Sample group contains 800 respondents, maximum accuracy
is less than 3,5%.
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
22
Socio-demographic profile of Kiev residents
Distribution according to income level*
Less than 2959 hrn
0.6%
25.9%
Entertainment
5.2%
Meal outside home
4.6%
10.5%
8240-9999 hrn
20.9%
10 000 - 14 999 hrn
People in a family– 3.22
9.1%
Other purchases
6480-8239 hrn
No answer
13.1%
Clothes and shoes purchases
13.1%
4720-6479 hrn
20 thous.hrn and even
more
38.0%
Products
5.9%
2960-4719 hrn
15 000 - 19 999 hrn
Distribution of family expenses, %
Utility services and other
payments
4.6%
18.6%
7.9%
Transport
1.5%
17.0%
Average family income level– 8 647
hrn.*
Credit payment
2.0%
Save up for future
1.6%
• Average monthly family income level of Kiev households makes about 8 647 hrn., 70% of which are accounted for consumer expenses.
Decrease in consumer expenses level is accompanied by an increase in utility fees expenses .
Quantitative survey of Kiev residents was held in the way of standardized face to face door enquiry. Sample group contains 800 respondents, maximum accuracy
is less than 3,5%.
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
23
Contacts
Vadim Neposedov
President
vvn@utg.kiev.ua
Evgeniya Loktionova
Director
loktionova@utg.kiev.ua
Viktor Oborsky
Head of Strategic Consulting Dept.
v.oborsky@utg.kiev.ua
Thank you for attention!
Contacts
Dina Katerenuyk
Analyst of Strategic Consulting Dept.
d.katerenyuk@utg.kiev.ua
Ukrainian Trade Guilt (UTG) – is a large scale national real estate consulting company. UTG today –
is 55 highly qualified specialists and more than 500 clients. Participation in 450 business projects and
more than 700 market researches let us remain a reliable, responsible and competent partner.
Working with various types and sizes of real estate at different stages of the project development, we
guarantee a highly professional productivity level and individual approach to the tasks assigned by
the client.
This presentation is a publication bearing a generalized character. Ukrainian Trade Guilt has no liability towards
possible loss of any third parties as a result of information use, introduced in this market overview.
Any publication of the materials presented in the Report, wholly or partially, is possible only in case the company
is mentioned as a data source.
Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1st half of 2015
Ukrainian Trade Guilt
2a, Mechnikova str. (BC «Parus»)
Kiev 01601, Ukraine
Tel.: (+380 44) 537 23 64
www.utgcompany.com