Feeding the Planet while Sustaining Ecosystems: Redefining Agricultural Efficiency Joshua Farley Community Development and Applied Economics Gund Institute for Ecological Economics University of Vermont Ecological Boundaries and Agriculture Essential and Non-substitutable Resources Food, water, energy, ecosystem services Critical thresholds Essential to human survival with no adequate substitutes Ecological Physiological Inelastic demand Large changes in marginal value with small changes in quantity Ecological Boundaries and the Supply Curve Must sum together all costs: labor, capital, biodiversity loss, nitrogen, climate change, etc. (marginal cost) Social/Physiological Boundaries Trade-offs: Life sustaining benefits Value: Increasing rapidly with decreasing quantity. Trade-offs: Resilience, increasingly important benefits food security, household security Value: shift from marginal to total value (e.g. diamond-water paradox) physiological threshold: e.g. starvation Opportunity cost Physiological Boundaries/Thresholds and the Demand curve Value: low and stable Trade-offs: relatively unimportant benefits Irreconcilable Thresholds? Market demand in an unequal world Americans spend 6.7% of income on food for home consumption 11.6% of food dollar goes to farmers <1% of income spend on raw food How did you react when wheat prices tripled? Elasticity of demand to retail prices ~.08 Implies ~.001 elasticity of demand to raw food prices Market demand in an unequal world Many poor countries spend >70% of income on food for home consumption Perhaps 50% spent on raw food? How do poorer countries react when wheat prices triple? Arab spring Elasticity of demand ~.7 Budget share and elasticity Market Demand, Unequal World Physio thresh w/ equal distribution Eco thresh nitrogen Eco thresh carbon Trade-offs: Starvation now or in future 1245 1800 2700 Sustainability and justice vs. preferences Marginal market costs (Market supply curve)) Physiological boundaries for rich Price Market Supply and Demand Poor people have no demand Market Allocation of Essential Resources on an Unequal Planet Does it maximize utility? Is it efficient (Pareto efficiency)? The perversion of utility Would it be possible to re-allocate food from obese people to malnourished people without making anyone worse off? Do we need to make subjective value judgments to answer this? Objective needs should take priority over subjective preferences weighted by purchasing power Solutions Redefining Goals: Efficiency What is efficiency? Ratio of benefits/costs Agriculture Food production/land; food/labor Most efficient system ever? Energy in, energy out? Economics diminishing MB, rising MC. MC=MB Maximizing monetary value How do we do this for food? Ecological Economic Efficiency What is the desirable end? Normative judgment What are the costs? economic efficiency technical efficiency ecological efficiency Food Security • Allocative efficiency • Producing the right foods with the right resources on the right land • Shifting subsidies • Distributive efficiency • Ensuring these foods go to those with the greatest physiological need • More equitable distribution of wealth? • Alternatives to price rationing? E.g. California vs. Brazil • Brazil, India, small farmers • Both shift demand curve to the left • Throughput broadly defined • • Water, energy, fertilizers, labor, capital, land Cannot rely on non-renewables • Requires major investments in R&D, extension • How do we minimize costs of developing new technologies, maximize benefits? Economics of information Land grant universities Markets fail to account for future generations, negative externalities, public goods • Competition and price rationing inherently inefficient • Cooperation required Shifts supply curve to right Agroecology also shifts demand curve to left • • • • • • Minimizing impact of throughput on ES • Minimizing agrotoxins, fossil fuels, erosion • Non-market benefits • Open access and public goods • Cooperation required • Perennial polyculture, agroecology • Restoring ecosystem services • Shifts supply curve to right Summary & Conclusions Markets fail to account for ecological degradation Markets fail to distinguish between needs and wants Bad idea to extend them to ecosystem services Markets promote unsustainable, unjust and inefficient agricultural systems Summary & Conclusions Must define appropriate goals for economic system on crowded, finite planet Must understand resource characteristics Appropriate economic institutions based on resource characteristics and goals Cooperation required to solve ecological problems, achieve just distribution, produce required technologies