How Deeply Does Britain’s
Euroscepticism Run?
John Curtice
NatCen Social Research
www.whatukthinks.org/eu
Should Britain ‘continue’ as an EU
member or ‘withdraw’?
90
70
60
50
77
76
80
56
53
42
61
63
72
68
57
54
60
48
45
38
40
33
32
30
26
35
29
17
20
22
28
30
10
0
83
84
85
86
87
89
Continue
90
91
Withdraw
92
97
14
15
A More Nuanced Question
Do you think Britain's long-term policy should be…
• to leave the European Union,
• to stay in the EU and try to reduce the EU's
powers,
• to leave things as they are,
• to stay in the EU and try to increase the EU's
powers,
• or, to work for the formation of a single European
government?
Widespread Scepticism
50
43
45
40
35
30
25
22
19
20
15
8
10
3
5
0
Leave
Reduce
As Is
Increase
Single govt
The Rise of Euroscepticism
80
70
60
58
50
40
30
57 55
46
38
36
50
52
67
56
50
47
52
51
55
65
62
65
37
20
10
0
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Reduce/Stop/End EU Rules
80
70
68
60
60
59
53
51
50
40
30
20
27
23
17
17
14
10
0
Migrant welfare
Regulation
NHS Treatment Working Hours
Agree
Disagree
FoM
The Perceived Consequences
of Leaving
‘Better’
No Difference
‘Worse’
Immigration
57
31
9
Unemployment
24
46
25
Economy
24
31
40
Influence
17
44
36
Perceived Economic Consequences of
Stronger EU Links
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
45
43
40
33
32
22
20
35
33
20
20
35
17
18
13
8
90
91
93
94
Stronger
95
Weaker
97
14
15
Is the EU Undermining Britain’s
Distinctive Identity?
50
47
45
40
35
30
30
25
20
20
15
10
5
0
Agree
Neither
Disagree
What Matters?
Withdraw vs. Continue
• Identity Undermined *
• Economy If Leave *
• Economy Stronger Links
• Immigration If Leave
• European Identity
Sceptic vs. Europhile
• Identity Undermined *
• Immigration If Leave
• Con/UKIP supporter
• Economy Stronger Links
• European Identity
The Importance of Economic
Evaluations
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
89
84
80
68
64
60
47
31
8
Much Better
Better
Neither
Withdraw
Sceptic
Worse
2
Much Worse
Cultural Concern Alone Insufficient
% withdraw
Economy If Leave
Better
Neither/Worse
EU Undermines Identity
Agree
Neither/Disagree
82
35
40
3
Conclusions
• Euroscepticism is both deep and wide, fed by
‘cultural concern’ (and low/weak European
identity)
• But it is only likely to become converted into
support for leaving if it is thought the
economy would be better if Britain left
• To date, voters are not inclined to the view
that the economy would be better
Implications
• Leave need to win the economic case for
exiting the EU
• Remain have to persuade voters the economic
benefits are worth the price of the constraints
and ‘meddling’ that come from Brussels
• Neither has an easy task!